SU 2 - REASONABLY RATIONAL & RANDOMIDGET ALLIANCE

[Cerberus v666]

I want to give you the disaster scenario I'm concerned about, so you can confirm in thread that it makes sense (in case anyone somehow doubts us at this point) and also pass it on to MoI, because I believe we have to play assuming this is the scenario and hope that it's not.

So the scenario we're concerned about is that there might be 3 scum left. This isn't really a stretch because of the following: the game had mod-confirmed Mastin on day one via Yume, who was Steven. That's two slots right away that scum could never get lynched. Then there was Titus who was IC. Up to three slots. Then kraska could have popped IC in a 3-man LYLO which was a contingent 4th. There was also the ability someone had to copy another person's role, and for balancing purposes it had to be considered that Titus would be copied for another IC. That puts us to a hard 4, 5th contingent. Then add in the Crystal Gem masonry which started at 4 and bumped up to 5 and we have 9 slots that for sure could never be mislynched, with a 10th contingent.

Now if we assume 6 groupscum + traitor then the scum team had to get six mislynches and five or six night kills. They got some extra from events, but we stopped as many of their night kills as they got extra kills, so it's the same situation. So they had to be able to get six mislynches out of a pool of only 8-10 slots. If the scum team is one smaller, it's an extra mislynch out of a pool if 9-11 slots. I think that amount of unlynchable town/CGs should make us err on the side of caution.

So the disaster scenario would be this:

1.) Farside exits the game
2.) Fuzzy shoots a town tonight
3.) Scum's kill goes through tonight
4.) Creature is somehow town (I know this is really unlikely, but this is the kind of thing Cerb and I think of: what is the worst possible thing that could happen and how can we mitigate that)

If that all happened, we would go into tomorrow with 7 alive (Farside, Creature, Fuzzy's kill and Scum's kill all gone) and 3 would be scum. That's LYLO.

Is this why you don't want fuzzy shooting?

Basically. It's a paranoia thing more than anything else honestly, just not too fond of the idea of risking everything going to shit.

IF fuzzy does shoot tonight, shadow is probably his best target though. In a scenario where there are 7 scum, there IS maybe room for a goon even in a role madness game and with the rather notable level of power we've seen from the town flips so far(especially since even the swing roles, if played properly, had a good number of "safe" alliances they could form without risking helping scum out. Something to note about the traitor, she was actually a fairly powerful role on her own, so I don't know if I'd actually call that slot a weaker one. The team as a whole is surely weaker than they'd be with straight 6 or 7 though, yes.

I agree with you on the flavor reasons btw, it just makes sense, but I don't want to get too confident over flavor spec ya know?

Pedit: ninjaed by drixx, ah well. I should probably work instead of posting here anyways. :p

[Drixx]

Shit yeah. Thanks Cerb. Shadow is the obvious shot for Fuzzy for the reasons Cerb outlined and a little bit for play. I don't recall playing with Shadow before, but I'm kind of underwhelmed. We're LATE in the game now and everyone who has made it this far should be plugged in and paying attention and he doesn't seem to care about anything other than avoiding attention. That's usually a bad sign.

[Randomnamechange]

Yeah alright I get your reasoning. I'm up for it then

[Reasonably Rational]

Random, please make sure you and MoI do a thorough infodump to one another tonight. Ask MoI to complete those ISOs he wanted to analyze etc. The two of you, along with mastin, are the obvious scum kills, depending on whether they 1) believe what MoI said about you all leaving the game when humans are all gone, and 2) whether it would cost them more or less kills for a victory that way than through a traditional fashion. You guys have the benefit of being able to make sure your thoughts don't get lost in death though, so just..make sure you've discussed everything thoroughly by the end of tonight.

[Drixx]

By the way ... for your info dump to MoI tonight: Shadow almost cannot possibly be lynched today. That's the benefit of allying with Mastin: the lynch threshold becomes higher and given that he's not likely to self vote ... pretty sure it's a fool's errand to go after him. I see no reason to make that obvious though.

[Randomnamechange]

By the way ... for your info dump to MoI tonight: Shadow almost cannot possibly be lynched today. That's the benefit of allying with Mastin: the lynch threshold becomes higher and given that he's not likely to self vote ... pretty sure it's a fool's errand to go after him. I see no reason to make that obvious though.

Sorry can you clarify the first part?

[Randomnamechange]

Random, please make sure you and MoI do a thorough infodump to one another tonight. Ask MoI to complete those ISOs he wanted to analyze etc. The two of you, along with mastin, are the obvious scum kills, depending on whether they 1) believe what MoI said about you all leaving the game when humans are all gone, and 2) whether it would cost them more or less kills for a victory that way than through a traditional fashion. You guys have the benefit of being able to make sure your thoughts don't get lost in death though, so just..make sure you've discussed everything thoroughly by the end of tonight.

I think that the kill will probs be mastin or you (if they think that mastin will be protected)
also you are doing a lot of gamesolving which will make you a target

[Randomnamechange]

Infodump stuff for MoI:
use alliance PTs to sort people rather than to plan
what should I say about the fuzzy plan?
explain the disaster scenario
shadow should be high priority kill

[Randomnamechange]

oh btw could you full claim please?

also what are the proposed alliances for tomorrow?

[Drixx]

By the way ... for your info dump to MoI tonight: Shadow almost cannot possibly be lynched today. That's the benefit of allying with Mastin: the lynch threshold becomes higher and given that he's not likely to self vote ... pretty sure it's a fool's errand to go after him. I see no reason to make that obvious though.

Sorry can you clarify the first part?

What Mastin does as an alliance benefit leaked by implication in the thread. It's the same way we figured out that you guys (CGs) were a separate faction and had a PT. Things you guys said implied a common pool of knowledge that couldn't be explained and too many people leaked to assume masons, ergo our conclusion of a third faction. In this case, Mastin gives out a really strong bonus to the player allied to her. Then recently something she said made it really obvious that she makes someone harder to lynch. I'm thinking a loved modifier or something similar to allies. I'd have to go look again and see what made me note that down.

[Drixx]

oh btw could you full claim please?

also what are the proposed alliances for tomorrow?

We're Sadie. We originally began with an alliance ability, a season finale ability and our event. Titus asked us for a full and specific claim because she had the ability to steal someone's ability and she used it to confirm our claim. I actually lost my shit with her about it when she did it, because we had been planning how to use it to corner scum and then suddenly we got a PM that the ability was gone. You should go read that PT after the game just to see my reaction. I had to be reminded she was an IC.

Anyway, the ability she stole was given the flavor name

I Understand Enough! You're only my friend when It's convenient for you.

-- If we allied with a player and then THEY chose to ally differently, we could passively roleblock them (our game long suspicion of Farside should now make a whole lot more sense, if it did not already). During each Climax we could, as an action, continue to roleblock them. If we ever stopped doing so, we could not do so again unless we allied that person again. The PLAN was to use this to force scumspects to ally us and then choose to ally differently at which point we could lock them down until cleared or caught outright.

Our finale ability you already know, but for the same of being complete is named

Just Get Out of My Life!

and during the season finales if we hammer a player, they simply die and no effect may keep them alive in any way. This is a hard counter to Farside's demonstrated ability to escape lynch (and with all the SU games featuring abilities which refill at the finale, I don't for a second believe she cannot do it again), which should even further clarify our game long suspicion of her.

And we had the Beach-A-Palooza event.

---------------------------------

As for alliances: I think they should be used to force scumspects to interact and talk at this point. I don't think there's a whole lot of value left in co-ordinating in them as we've lost most of the trusted links who could get info spread quickly.

Given that there are 3 slots which cannot be lynched (You, MoI, Mastin), I would expect the kill to go one of those places. If it's us ... see you in the afterlife.

[Drixx]

Fuzzy should be leashed, imo. He only shoots if 2/3 of {You, Mastin, MoI} agree on the target. We feel like Shadow makes the most sense to shoot first, followed by farside.

Cannot wholly discount the possibility that Fuzzy is scum and has an extra kill mechanism available to him which he's advertising as a vig shot.

Suspicion list is something like: {Creature, Farside, Shadow, Shiro, Grapes, TFL, A50}