Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Creature]

ProHawk was prodded.

Secret Agent Jin requested replacement.

Votecount 1.5

Votecount 1.5

[1] Jaack - ZZZX
[3] ArcAngel9 - Dunhallym, Gamma Emerald, Tenshii
[0] Gamma Emerald
[2] Secret Agent Jin - Jaack, ProHawk
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[0] Dunhallym
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: ArcAngel9, Secret Agent Jin

8 players are alive and 5 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 16:00:00)

[ProHawk]

Prod Pickup. Post after work.

[Creature]

ssbm_Kyouko replaces Secret Agent Jin.

[ArcAngel9]

Mod, I am sorry. I am going out of town on Thursday and stuck with work till last min, I probably have access only through phone. I dont think I will be able to catch up at this point of time.

Please replace me out. Thank you.

Sorry guys i am not doing justice to this game.

[Creature]

Searching for ArcAngel9 replacement.

[Creature]

Something_Smart replaces ArcAngel9.

[Gamma Emerald]

Howdy SS!

[Something_Smart]

sup dawgs
reading up now

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Obaby he ragequit. Just caught up to the thread but only did a once-through read. Going to look at that handy matrix now.

Really not getting why Jin kept saying he never TRed Jaack. I know his defensiveness was a playstyle thing though since I have his role pm. For the record it definitely does not look like dunhallym is trying to goad Jin or anything like that. I still have a few hours before work so I'm gonna dig into this thread after I eat a bit.

Feel free to ask me shit tho, I have a short day at work and will be back after

[Gamma Emerald]

Thoughts on ProHawk?
That's at both of you.

[Something_Smart]

okay so after a cursory read my reads are:
(scum) Tenshii > ProHawk > Jin > ZZZX > Dunhallym > Gamma > Jaack (town)

Jaack is close to obvtown for me. I just feel like his thought processes have been super transparent and he doesn't seem to be trying to hide or force anything. The way he took charge of chronicling the picks and involved in discussion about the setup that wasn't awkward seems like something that would be challenging for scum to pull off well and easy for scum to simply avoid.

Gamma is less strong of a read but still fairly confident. This one has a decent amount of meta involved, mostly from Surrealism where I correctly townread him. I've witnessed Gamma's scumgame indirectly as being the backup mod for a game where he was scum (though I didn't do anything, I loosely followed the game) and it seems to me that he has more of a solid direction as scum; as in, he has a plan and works toward that plan. As town he's less focused and more exploratory in trying to find out people's alignments. I think his play here is consistent with the latter.

There's a significant gap between those two and the other five, them being the only reads I have a decent amount of confidence on. (Usually my reads upon catching up are bad because I usually form them better going forward than backward.)

Dunhallym pinged me earlier with some of her posts, particularly where she argued in favor of scumhunting first and then sharing picks. I don't think that benefits scum per se (I guess it depends on how much they will let the picks guide their play), but it just struck me as a little unlike town to want to have less information on the table, especially since the main relevant issue regarding sharing picks is whether scum will lie, and if so, who they'll say instead, for which sharing picks later would be better because they would pick scumteams that people are finding likely anyway. However, I think her other posts have been fairly solid, to the point where she's a slight townlean. Now that I'm reading her posts, I'm actually a little less impressed with them than I was the first time. I guess just the fact that she is getting a lot of thoughts out seems genuine. 190 is a very solid post as well.

ZZZX is a bit of a non-entity in my mind. I don't feel like much of what he said has left a strong impression, and so he's mostly at null for now. (This happens with some people, where I just don't really pay attention to their posts for whatever reason. I think it's a me problem, but hopefully I'll be able to interact with him and get a better read later.)

Jin has some really awkward lines that I think are indicative of being a newb more than anything. Reading his posts he's quite defensive and detached, and his argument in 170 is terrible, especially when he backtracks and calls his action NAI after Jaack pointed out how his argument was crap. That said, people are attacking him for his bungled read on Jaack (how it seemed that he was initially townreading him, but then he claimed he never was), but I think that that, if anything, is slightly town indicative. I'll need to see more from this slot, which unfortunately was replaced so I can't see how he continues his ideas, but right now I have the slot at null-scum. (Also looking at ssbm's first post, IIRC claiming to be confused by or not understand your predecessor's actions is slightly more likely to be scum covering up something bad. Though ironically I don't even think it was bad.)

ProHawk is really aggressive and quick to accuse, and I get the feeling that he's trying to look like he's in control while finding weaknesses in other players to attack. This could be playstyle but IMO it's a good playstyle for scum to use, especially more experienced scum playing with less experienced players. Even from his very first post, his arguments and reads don't feel completely real, and the fact that he mostly handwaved the setup discussion (read what I said about Jaack) doesn't work in his favor either. And I don't love his comments about Gamma. Looking at their interactions, I feel like there is exactly one scum in ProHawk/Jin.

My Tenshii scumread is pretty hard to explain. (Ironic, I know, since it's the strongest.) I don't like how his early posts seem to be trying to avoid scumhunting or commenting on the game, and when he does he makes several votes with really sketchy reasoning. I could see him being partners with Jin making the Jin vote and then immediately jumping off him. Although he does vote ProHawk and stays on him until Gamma asks him what his ProHawk read is, at which point he switches to townreading him and votes my slot. He also later claimed that his Jin vote was a reaction test, but he didn't mention anything about the reaction he got. Tenshii just seems like he has one or two agendas that he's pushing, and that his interactions are being guided by his mindset, rather than his mindset being guided by his interactions.

[Gamma Emerald]

@SS: don't forget that you modded me for part of Normal Idea

[Something_Smart]

oh yeah that's true. I don't actually remember too much about your play from that game though lol

[Gamma Emerald]

My play that game was don't think you can be wrong
Also your read on ProHawk and Tenshii complicates things for my strategy going forward.

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart
Your comments on Tenshii read matches some thoughts I had. I need to reread him.
Regarding Jin, the reason I pushed his reversal is because to me it made his initial read on Jaack look fake. I'm to tired to explain tonight but I'll try to do it tomorrow if required.

[Jaack]

Well first an updates/reposted chart

	ZZZX
Dunhallym		Dunhallym
ProHawk	O		ProHawk
Tenshii	O	O		Tenshii
Jin/ssbm	O				Jin/ssbm
Gamma	O		O		O	Gamma
AA9/SS				O		O	AA9/SS
Jaack		O	O	O		O

As for important stuff

SS catch-up looks pretty thorough for a slot that was in danger of getting lynched. I don't necessarily agree with everything in it, but it doesn't look like a scum replacement. ProHawk and Tenshii are relatively undiscussed players and don't make sense as scum targets at this point. Unless he's partners with Jin/ssbm, I'd expect scum SS to go after that slot since its the only other one that looks lynchable at this point.

As for his actual reads, I'm not really feeling scum from ProHawk. I can kinda see scum in Tenshii, but I'm not feeling it as strongly as with Jin/ssbm (sorry you had to replace into this slot ssbm).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I couldn't resist the urge to do some math since nobody else has done it yet so I'm going to drop a couple of numbers so that the info is out there for town jic I die.

The chance that your scumteam unpicks were duplicated at least twice by a combination of other players' scumteam unpicks is 100/441 or 22.68%. (Something_Smart/ArcAngel slot)
Note that this includes the chance that 2 or more different players from yourself duplicate the same one of your scumteam unpicks twice, so the chance that the SS/AA slot is being truthful is slightly, but not much less than 22.68%, assuming Dunhallym and Gamma are both being truthful about their unpicks. We don't know yet if they were being truthful as neither of them have flipped, but this will be valuable later on if one does.

The chance that exactly one of your scumteam unpicks is duplicated at least once is 10/21 or 47.62%. (Gamma/Dunhallym) This is the chance that each of Gamma and Dunhallym are telling the truth individually (not the chance they're both being truthful together. That would be 22.68%).

I'm really tempted to vote SS based on this alone but since Dunhallym claimed her picks after SS it makes me hesitate until I'm more sure of Dun. I really did not like her attitude early on towards claiming because it is not pro-town, though she says she is not good with probabilities. If that is the case, she would not have known that filling

The Matrix™

is the best way to start the game for town. Now I'll do real reading with note-taking, I got caught up in the math before.

As of now I'm set on voting between SS and Dunhallym today based on the numbers, just have to decide which of them is telling the truth. There's one scum there, and probably not 2 unless Dun didn't realize that making both of SS's unpicks get duplicated would look suspicious. Again, this is possible if she was being real about not being good with probabilities.

pedit: No worries on the slot, glad I could join in this game because Mathia is my favorite Mafia variant

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Initial thoughts though are that Jaack and ProHawk are town for posts 36 and 25. Prohawk stronger lean because he went for it first.

[Gamma Emerald]

I feel that Jinslot is the best informational lynch. The slot has a relatively high chance of flipping scum, and if it's town, Tenshii is very likely town.

[Something_Smart]

I couldn't resist the urge to do some math since nobody else has done it yet so I'm going to drop a couple of numbers so that the info is out there for town jic I die.

The chance that your scumteam unpicks were duplicated at least twice by a combination of other players' scumteam unpicks is 100/441 or 22.68%. (Something_Smart/ArcAngel slot)
Note that this includes the chance that 2 or more different players from yourself duplicate the same one of your scumteam unpicks twice, so the chance that the SS/AA slot is being truthful is slightly, but not much less than 22.68%, assuming Dunhallym and Gamma are both being truthful about their unpicks. We don't know yet if they were being truthful as neither of them have flipped, but this will be valuable later on if one does.

The chance that exactly one of your scumteam unpicks is duplicated at least once is 10/21 or 47.62%. (Gamma/Dunhallym) This is the chance that each of Gamma and Dunhallym are telling the truth individually (not the chance they're both being truthful together. That would be 22.68%).

I'm really tempted to vote SS based on this alone but since Dunhallym claimed her picks after SS it makes me hesitate until I'm more sure of Dun. I really did not like her attitude early on towards claiming because it is not pro-town, though she says she is not good with probabilities. If that is the case, she would not have known that filling

The Matrix™

is the best way to start the game for town. Now I'll do real reading with note-taking, I got caught up in the math before.

As of now I'm set on voting between SS and Dunhallym today based on the numbers, just have to decide which of them is telling the truth. There's one scum there, and probably not 2 unless Dun didn't realize that making both of SS's unpicks get duplicated would look suspicious. Again, this is possible if she was being real about not being good with probabilities.

pedit: No worries on the slot, glad I could join in this game because Mathia is my favorite Mafia variant

This isn't Mathia though, and those probabilities aren't accurate because it fails to take into account the fact that my slot has claimed those picks and (from an objective perspective) there's a good chance that I'm town and therefore telling the truth.

I've been trying to ignore the picks for the most part and just scumhunt; without flips, the picks can't really give us anything definitive.

I feel that Jinslot is the best informational lynch. The slot has a relatively high chance of flipping scum, and if it's town, Tenshii is very likely town.

Do you not see Tenshii/ProHawk as a potential team?

[Gamma Emerald]

I TR ProHawk.

[Something_Smart]

Why?

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't see much scum motivation in their posting.

[Something_Smart]

[Tenshii]

Okay nvm. I don't get why Jin flip flopped on his read on Jaack. It only makes sense if he was trying to cover up for himself.

VOTE: Jin/Kyouko