Open 657: JK9++ (Game over)

[Creature]

Also, it's possible mafia hit BP SK.

[MiniDeathStar]

4:1:1 -> lynch SK -> 4:1 -> mafia kill, vig kill -> 2:1. Lynch vengeful/mafia, vengekill vig/mafia. Sounds fair.

However, if *you* Creature are the SK, then you could be bulletproof and your vest would save you from the vengeful kill.

Let's see..

4:1:1 -> lynch Charlie, Charlie shoots SK!Creature, vest saves -> 3:1:1 -> SK mafia both kill town -> 1:1:1, scum draw.

Or also...

4:1:1 -> lynch mafia -> 4:1 -> SK!Creature kills -> 3:1 -> lynch Charlie, vengekill fails -> 2:1 -> SK!Creature kills again -> SK wins.

I don't like any of this.

[Creature]

I don't think vest actually saves from vengekills.

[MiniDeathStar]

But then, if Creature is the SK that still means villager scum shot Kop. Which is lol.

Charloux is the most logical scum here. I just don't see how they'd risk it with that vengeful claim. They have to have planned this way in advance and never planned for Charlie to be the last scum standing.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and not that it matters but I attempted to track Tiger moth again to verify if she's the last mafia or actually a villager. The fact she didn't vote yeterday and fed into my doubt regarding bang kind of supported that idea.

[Creature]

What should we do if we lynch a VT?

[MiniDeathStar]

We lose. It's LYLO.

[Creature]

If I am town I can still attempt to shoot someone. Mafia can't roleblock me anyway.

[Creature]

Also, 1:1:1 can still end in a town win.

[Creature]

If the day start with 2:1:1, one town player should volunteer to be lynched (unless I am alive). Don't worry, scum don't want to be lynched at that point.

[MiniDeathStar]

This is the way I see this right now.

If Creature or I are scum, the fake villager killed a villager.

If Charlie is scum, vig Creature killed lane, and the fake villager tried to kill me (and lane stopped it) or Charlie (and the SK vest stopped it).

Charlie makes most sense as scum in the PRs. EXCEPT HE CLAIMED VENGEFUL.

So either the fake villager is shooting real villagers for some reason (probably because they were afraid to hit JK's target? Idk why else), or the vengeful is a fakeclaim.

[MiniDeathStar]

Secret Agent Jin
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty
Tiger moth

Who fits SK the most?

Why do you think SK is amongst the villagers btw?

[MiniDeathStar]

@Mod:

If the SK is bulletproof, would that protect them from a vengeful kill?

[Creature]

Secret Agent Jin
ScumDeersAreVeryTasty
Tiger moth

Who fits SK the most?

Why do you think SK is amongst the villagers btw?

idk, would a SK claim PR when it could contradict other PR claims?

[Creature]

Specially when the SK can't coordinate with other scum.

[Secret Agent Jin]

We dont know who is lying within the VTs, i am a VT so that narrows it down to Moth or Deer. What we do know is 1 of the 3 PRs is fake. I trust MDS (maybe to my lose) so that means it is Charl or Creature. The way i see it we have a 50% chance to hit scum with this lynch if we go Moth, Deer, Charl, and Creature.

I doubt that a scum PR would shoot within their group as that narrows the pool down and the same for the scum VT. It must have been cross kills.

Who do we aim for? Moth or Deer?

[MiniDeathStar]

It makes sense if bang was scum with Charloux, since they could coordinate the vengeful + vig claim. But it also makes sense if you just claimed vig as SK so you could shoot with impunity. With TTT the mafia could plausibly have planned to both claim villagers until I analysed the setup and they knew what claims we were expecting. Or maybe they planned it to claim 1 villager 1 PR all along. They knew the setup from the beginning, they had all the time in the world to plan their moves.

I don't think I can deduce it with the information I have atm.

I just know it makes little sense for the villager scum to shoot Kop. They could have predicted lane would either kill or protect me and could have shot at you (Creature) or Charlie. Kop was a claim that could have been lynched instead of them. It could be elaborate WIFOM, or just plain bad play, or maybe the villager scum DID try to kill me, and Kop was killed by the scum!Charloux.

Idk what to do. If mod confirms that vengekill bypasses SK vest, then I'm up for lynching Charlie.

[MiniDeathStar]

We dont know who is lying within the VTs, i am a VT so that narrows it down to Moth or Deer. What we do know is 1 of the 3 PRs is fake. I trust MDS (maybe to my lose) so that means it is Charl or Creature. The way i see it we have a 50% chance to hit scum with this lynch if we go Moth, Deer, Charl, and Creature.

I doubt that a scum PR would shoot within their group as that narrows the pool down and the same for the scum VT. It must have been cross kills.

Who do we aim for? Moth or Deer?

You should be trusting me, and I'll explain why, because it looks like bang didn't get it.

1) As scum, I could have played a very different game on Day 2. Instead of giving town all this information that scum me would already have had, I could have kept you in the dark. So let's say I did a gambit for town credit.

2) The gambit worked, everyone thought I was obvtown. So what did I do then? I started a few wagons and backed down. That would have been super risky for scum!me; I should have been looking to mislynch as quickly as possible, because every time I gave town a chance to reconsider, they could have turned onto my scum partners or I could slip. But let's say I did a gambit again, and it earned me even more town credit.

3) So why didn't I lynch Kop? Kop had plenty of town votes, including lane who was an easy scum suspect. My EV table had already revealed that mislynching a villager could lose town the game. Everyone thought I was town at that point. Did I really need more town credit? I could have just seized my victory right then and there.

4) Instead, I turned the focus back onto the PRs. As in, the pool where my claim was (I'll expand on this a bit later). Not just that, I also got the mafia lynched. Even if I were the SK, lynching mafia on Day 2 (in my claim pool at that) would drastically reduce my odds at winning. I should have been aiming at scenarios that could lead to SK win or scum draw - like lynching Kop. Besides, I already explained why SK should not try to be obvtown and risk herself being killed by the mafia.

5) The town game aims to shrink the number of suspects and achieve the safest lynch possible. The scum game is the opposite; they want everyone to be considered a suspect so town could be mislead into making the wrong lynch. Personally I think that's the most reliable scumtell I've found. That's what Bang was doing all day yesterDay. Trying to shift the focus onto the villagers, trying to make us think all PRs could somehow be legit, to make us think it's dangerous to lynch there, rushing a Kop lynch (largest wagon at the time), and last but definitely not least, trying to paint me as a sociopathic scum player who feeds her vanity on townies' trust and toys around with them. I think that's the biggest reason that got him lynched.

tl;dr:

Just as the person in a LYLO who hesitates with the hammer is assumed clear (because as scum they would quickhammer for the win), I should be assumed clear because I had literally a million opportunities to lead a mislynch and win as scum.
Anyone who tries to make me look like scum *now* would look incredibly scummy themselves. So, like. Please don't do that.

[Creature]

What would happen if we lynched Charloux?

[Creature]

If Charloux flips scum, maybe we can coordinate for me to shoot someone while you track someone else (or maybe we can do on the same person).

[Creature]

Oh nvm, that's a bad idea.

[MiniDeathStar]

If Charlie is scum, you shoot Tiger moth. She's my biggest FoS amongst the villagers. Tomorrow it would be between one of us (a confirmed townie) and 2 villagers. I think Jin is town but don't take my word for it.

[MiniDeathStar]

But I'd still like to know whether vengeful can bypass SK vest. I'd be really scared if not.

[MiniDeathStar]

Btw Creature? You said yesterday you had something that could make me more confident about town!you?

[Creature]

Oh right, it's my meta.