Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 1.6

Votecount 1.6

[1] Jaack - ZZZX
[1] Something_Smart - Gamma Emerald
[0] Gamma Emerald
[3] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Tenshii
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[1] Dunhallym - ssbm_Kyouko
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Something_Smart, Dunhallym

8 players are alive and 5 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 16:00:00)

The replacements weren't close enough to deadline to merit an extension.

[Gamma Emerald]

Ohai cfj

[Jaack]

I don't think it's worth putting any stock at all into whether someone's unpicks were repeated at all. It's more likely than not that we'd get some repeats and furthermore it had been a point of discussion that the only way scum could gain any advantage from lying about their unpicks was to try and get repeats.

SS is also right to say that the relative advantage of doubling up someone else's pick for scum is small.

Basing probabilities around that doesn't make sense compared to probabilities bases around the actually possible scumteams, which is raw, incorruptible data.

Overall, ssbm has done little to shake my scumread of that slot. Lots of effort but the initial focus on defending his predecessor as opposed to scumhunting strikes me as more likely to come from scum than town. Furthermore I don't really like the defense. A point-by-point case why -

I said the way you attacked, not your vote, was the unfair part. As for the defensive/weird post in question, if you compare Jaack's post to Jin's they're definitely both defensive but in different ways. Jaack is defending why he chose to vote Jin. It looks "weird" to Jin I think because he's providing a lot of justification for a vote that Jin probably thinks he doesn't deserve just because he's been placed into the pool of the 3 most optimal lynches in the game. Jin gets defensive in the sense of the word that you would normally think of in his post. It's a subtle difference but if you reread, it's there. I think what Jaack was trying to do was give Jin a lot to reply to because like Jaack said, Jin was a starting point and he would have wanted Jin to start contributing to the discussion so he could either rule Jin out or decide to make a push on him.

Jaack's note - ssbm quotes my 92 and Jin's post 93 here, describing them both as 'defensive,' but in the interest of space I'm excluding them

Now I don't like how ssbm equalizes my post with Jin's post by describing both equally as defensive.

First of all, the only part of my post 92 that could be considered defensive is in response to dunhallym and not concerning Jin. But I also resent the implication that I was being defensive here. I was responding to concerns that that dunhallym had presented. I didn't immediately start attacking her because she showed the slightest dissent from my thoughts.

Jin meanwhile began by denying that what I said he did actually happened (the walking back bit) then, once I pushed him further with this, he brushed it off as NAI in 104. Note that this only came after Gamma called Jin's play NAI in 102.

Jin's primary concern wasn't what I was thinking, it was that I was scumreading him. That is a scum mindset.

Moving along, ssbm starts talking about ProHawk's push on jin. I'm not all that interested in this section of ssbm's post except to say I don't think any of ProHawk's questions or anything were 'unfair'. The one thing that did stand out to me from this section is this:

This is sort of a loaded question. The only player behaving scummy to this point is PH, and Jin is under fire for voting someone who suspected him in the first place. He would be scared to admit that PH is his scum read in this situation.

This looks a lot like excuse making as to why Jin wasn't scumhunting. In fact, I'd expect town on the chopping block to be more expressive with their reads - they have less to lose when their are already widely scumread.

Here are the signs that were present that Jin was preparing to scumhunt:

Quotes of posts 151, 164, 117, and 122

And this doesn't really mean anything.

Preparing to scumhunt

? Jin talked about how he couldn't do anything because he was afraid of tunnelling me (this is off memory but I'm pretty sure that's the general gist of what he said). But he made no real effort to push me or lynch me or anything. It didn't look like he had a scumread on me at all because he seemed completely lackadaisical as to what I was doing.

All in all, I'll freely admit that I'd probably scumread any hard defense that someone would give to their predecessor, since I think it's more likely to come from scum than town, but this defense is notably scummy since it kind of fails to defend the stuff people (or at least I) was scumreading Jin for in the first place. Which is to say his deflections and lack of pro-activity.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The intention of my defense of Jin is to demonstrate that I scumread ProHawk for the way he was pushing Jin. My impression of AA slot is that they were confused by a language barrier, so I'm not seeing the same summoners in her posts that others were. I think Jaack you should reread my post more closely before you assume that I was saying that your 92 and Jin's 93 were equally defensive, or even defensive in the same sense of the word. I was referring to the way you justified voting Jin instead of AA. I don't think what you did was AI, just a play style difference between us. If I was town in your slot I wouldn't tell Jin why I was voting him so early in the game. There's no need to justify votes at that stage imo. Like I said, just a play style difference though. Just on break at work but I'll get back to you about the rest in a bit

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scumminess, not summoners lol

[Dunhallym]

Ssbm_Kyouko
I'm reading your ProHawk case as well as rereading the relevant part of the thread but from my understanding this

I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

Was not about Jin but about gamma. ProHawk asked Tenshii about his gamma read. Tenshii answered town and asked why ProHawk was scumreading gamma and this was ProHawk answer.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^This is right. Missed that when I was taking my notes, so when I went to get a multiquote list from my notes and post my interpretations it was in the wrong context. Can disregard that wrt the way PH pushed Jin

[ssbm_Kyouko]

All in all, I'll freely admit that I'd probably scumread any hard defense that someone would give to their predecessor, since I think it's more likely to come from scum than town, but this defense is notably scummy since it kind of fails to defend the stuff people (or at least I) was scumreading Jin for in the first place. Which is to say his deflections and lack of pro-activity.

Wait, you're thinking my defense is more scummy because I'm

not

defending scummy play? I think I've tried to explain why I think he was deflecting and not being proactive in my wallpost about PH, but I wouldn't condone the way Jin played.

[Dunhallym]

I'll try to find time later to finish the read. Right now I hav a question:
Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think I see where that's going Dun and you sparked a crazy idea in my head, so hear me out. I know I'm town and non-matrix reads are starting to tell me that Dun/SSmart are town. They're picking up on things I was missing because I was so focused on what the probabilities of

The Matrix™

were telling me. They seem to agree on Tenshii (see Dun's and maybe he was whiteknighting my slot in the PH push.

Dunhallym, SSmart

:Consider the following scenario. The 3 of us are town. One of us (me ) will be confirmed town to the others via a death flip. The remaining 2 will have to trust that the other is town for this to work out. Each of you is now in the position to read

The Matrix™

in the way Jaack describes in his early analysis, and can arrive at only 3 possible scumteams: Jaack/ZZZX, ProHawk/Tenshii, and Gamma/Tenshii. Let's assume Jaack is town too, because he is. This leaves PH/Tenshii and Gamma/Tenshii. This confirms Tenshii as scum.

I feel as though my slot is more useful to town dead than alive at this point for the above reason. I'm going to put together another wallpost tomorrow analyzing the interactions between PH/Gamma/Tenshii and self-vote in that post. It will come within 24 hours of now, please don't hammer me before then if you're town. Any later than 24 hours from now please vote me if you're town

ProHawk, Gamma - Tell us what you think of the plausibility of the other being scum with Tenshii please. Reads on Tenshii from each of you would also be appreciated. I'm leaning towards Gamma/Tenshii being more likely than ProHawk/Tenshii here. You should each also look at the way Tenshii interacts with the other and see if it looks like they could be together. This should be the focus of D2 discussion imo.

VOTE: Tenshii
I wouldn't mind being saved by a flashwagon though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This should be the focus of D2 discussion imo,

followed by a Tenshii lynch.

EBWOP: see bolded

Discuss who is more likely to be scum with him because my flip should confirm his as scum to Dunhallym and SSmart so the D3 lynch can be accurate. I want a D3 victory off this play but if you guys are down to gamble on the flashwagon it can be a flawless win

[Gamma Emerald]

I townread ProHawk so if ssbm flips town I'm p sure Tenshii is town.
After that proposition I'm actually more inclined to lynch ssbm

[Something_Smart]

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

[Something_Smart]

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

Because I hadn't thought to remove it.
VOTE: ssbm

[Jaack]

The intention of my defense of Jin is to demonstrate that I scumread ProHawk for the way he was pushing Jin. My impression of AA slot is that they were confused by a language barrier, so I'm not seeing the same summoners in her posts that others were. I think Jaack you should reread my post more closely before you assume that I was saying that your 92 and Jin's 93 were equally defensive, or even defensive in the same sense of the word. I was referring to the way you justified voting Jin instead of AA. I don't think what you did was AI, just a play style difference between us. If I was town in your slot I wouldn't tell Jin why I was voting him so early in the game. There's no need to justify votes at that stage imo. Like I said, just a play style difference though. Just on break at work but I'll get back to you about the rest in a bit

You grouped my post and jin's post together calling them both defensive. Why would I assume that you aren't equating them in some way.

And if it's just playstyle differences, then why bring it up in the first place?

Wait, you're thinking my defense is more scummy because I'm

not

defending scummy play? I think I've tried to explain why I think he was deflecting and not being proactive in my wallpost about PH, but I wouldn't condone the way Jin played.

Yes, you're defending stuff that didn't need to be defended. The fact that you felt the need to offer all of those justifications for Jin's play (all while saying you think he was playing poorly) leads me to believe you know his posts were scumposts and your trying to make up for them.

As for your plan, I'm not exactly getting how its useful at all. If you flip town (doubtful) and we assume these two other people are town for no reason, and then assume I'm town because I am town, then Tenshii has to be scum? Okay?

[Something_Smart]

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

[Gamma Emerald]

@All except ssbm and Something_Smart: what do you think of the townblock idea?
I personally am not in favor of it.

[Jaack]

@All except ssbm and Something_Smart: what do you think of the townblock idea?
I personally am not in favor of it.

I am not a fan either.

I mean everyone seems to be townreading me and it's unlikely that gamma is scum based purely on setup spec, but there's no one else who really makes sense to exclude from the lynchpool based on being townread.

Based on the chart, the next two candidates would be tenshii and zzzx, but there are enough tenshii scumreads going around to exclude him, and zzzx hasn't dome nearly enough to warrant wide townreads.

A townblock of two isn't that useful.

[Gamma Emerald]

I really don't get the Tenshii scumreads tho.

[Tenshii]

Lol Idk. I think Kyouko's push on me is town but then idk where else to vote.

I'm thinking here

VOTE: Something_Smart

But I don't really have a case to support it.

Also I dont agree with any townblock.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You grouped my post and jin's post together calling them both defensive. Why would I assume that you aren't equating them in some way.

And if it's just playstyle differences, then why bring it up in the first place?

I don't know any other way to explain why I was not

equating

your posts other than to leave a quote of my original post because I'm not sure if you ever went back to reread it. Here it is, with the important bits I think you might have glazed over after seeing that I said "they're definitely both defensive" bolded for clarity.

As for the defensive/weird post in question, if you compare Jaack's post to Jin's they're definitely both defensive

but in different ways. Jaack is defending why he chose to vote Jin

. It looks "weird" to Jin I think because he's providing a lot of justification for a vote that Jin probably thinks he doesn't deserve just because he's been placed into the pool of the 3 most optimal lynches in the game.

Jin gets defensive in the sense of the word that you would normally think of in his post. It's a subtle difference but if you reread, it's there.

I was bringing it up because you misinterpreted what I thought was defensive about your post. I wasn't talking about the part of your post where you were addressing Dunhallym. I was talking about this:

Both ArcAngel and Jin had less than stellar RVS votes, but I didn't really like how Jin walked his back after being called out on it.

Gotta go to work, Tenshii/PH/Gamma stuff coming afterwards

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

Yeah. I think Smart may be his partner.

[ProHawk]

In post 141, ProHawk wrote:
I could give you a play-by-play, but basically boils down to a lot of simple drive-by-posts mostly piggy-backing on other peoples ideas.

When pressed by Tenshii for more legitimate reasons for pushing Jin, ProHawk's initial response is to be vague about why he's pushing Jin. This makes me think he is using these aggressive pushes to try to get Jin to say something that will become the reason for players to push him, which Jin eventually does in 172.

Oh this is cute... not even close to me talking about Jin! Post 131 was me trying to get a better read on Jin.

The only player behaving scummy to this point is PH

Right....

Also, I don't think, nor said that Jaacks post was a defensive post. Jin did, and then he made one himself. This leads me to believe that Jin doesn't actually believe that posting defensively is a scum-tell.