Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[ProHawk]

Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.

[ProHawk]

ProHawk, Gamma - Tell us what you think of the plausibility of the other being scum with Tenshii please. Reads on Tenshii from each of you would also be appreciated. I'm leaning towards Gamma/Tenshii being more likely than ProHawk/Tenshii here.

Plausibility? Nope.

Am I the only one who thinks its extremely odd you feel that a Gamma/Tenshii team is more likely? And if you really do, why would you not start the flash-wagon on Gamma instead of Tenshii?

[ProHawk]

@All except ssbm and Something_Smart: what do you think of the townblock idea?

Not a fan, but that's mostly because I'm never in them... lol

Also, its usually a clever way for scum to skate if they manage to infiltrate the cell.

[Tenshii]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

Why aren't you voting me if you think I'm scum?

VOTE: Dunhallym

[Creature]

Votecount 1.7

Votecount 1.7

[1] Jaack - ZZZX
[0] Something_Smart
[0] Gamma Emerald
[3] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald
[2] Tenshii - ssbm_Kyouko, Something_Smart
[0] ProHawk
[1] Dunhallym - Tenshii
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Dunhallym

8 players are alive and 5 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 16:00:00)

[Dunhallym]

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

Why aren't you voting me if you think I'm scum?

VOTE: Dunhallym

????
I was talking about ssbm.
But you are correct that I should vote.
VOTE: ssbm
That's l-1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright.

284 was a lie, I don't think Tenshii is scum really, was just trying to bait out a scummy reaction from SSmart/Dunhallym because from my pov there is only a 16% chance that both of them are town, and they're also optimal lynches with me. I knew I was pretty dead already. I also wanted to see who would go for the Tenshii wagon and how they would justify it. Leaning towards SSmart being more likely to be scum from the reactions.

Well, most of 284 was a lie I guess. Still self-vote and hammering in this case, because no lynch is worse than my lynch for town.
VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gl town, don't forget about the numbers.

[Creature]

Votecount 1.8

Votecount 1.8

[1] Jaack - ZZZX
[0] Something_Smart
[0] Gamma Emerald

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

[1] Tenshii - Something_Smart
[0] ProHawk
[1] Dunhallym - Tenshii
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting:

8 players are alive and 5 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-03 16:00:00)

[Creature]

ssbm_Kyouko was lynched, he was

Vanilla Town

.

[Creature]

Day 2 has started

Votecount 2.0

Votecount 2.0

[0] Jaack
[0] Something_Smart
[0] Gamma Emerald
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[0] Dunhallym
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Everybody

7 players are alive and 4 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-16 15:00:00)

[Something_Smart]

Well that happened.

Alright.

284 was a lie, I don't think Tenshii is scum really, was just trying to bait out a scummy reaction from SSmart/Dunhallym because from my pov there is only a 16% chance that both of them are town, and they're also optimal lynches with me. I knew I was pretty dead already. I also wanted to see who would go for the Tenshii wagon and how they would justify it. Leaning towards SSmart being more likely to be scum from the reactions.

Well, most of 284 was a lie I guess. Still self-vote and hammering in this case, because no lynch is worse than my lynch for town.
VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko

Although I don't think the reaction test was necessarily a bad idea, you probably shouldn't have self-hammered yet, because we did still have a day and if you had made this post without self-hammering we could have discussed it further, and the worst thing that can happen is that somebody else hammers you anyway.

I think the reason that he didn't like my reaction is that I went for the Tenshii wagon that he offered, but I think he neglected to look at the wider picture, which is that I was becoming increasingly turned off by his wagon and I scumread Tenshii anyway, though there didn't seem to be much support for his wagon.

I don't think the odds of Dunhallym being scum from my POV are as great as what ssbm said, but knowing that he's town, this post actually does look pretty bad:

I don't have time to expand but the speed at which ssbm changes his plan from we have to lynch between ssmart and d'un to let's trust each other and lynch Tenshii whom he said was likely town in a previous post does nothing to convince me of his innocence. I think he's trying a desperate gambit.

At the very least, I'll give ssbm the benefit of the doubt and look into Dunhallym a bit more in depth at some point.

[Jaack]

Update Chart Action Activate

	ZZZX
Dunhallym		Dunhallym
ProHawk	O		ProHawk
Tenshii	O	O		Tenshii
Jin/ssbm	O	O	O	O	Jin/ssbm
Gamma	O		O		O	Gamma
AA9/SS				O	O	O	AA9/SS
Jaack		O	O	O	O	O

Remaining Possible Scumteams:
ZZZX+Dunhallym
ZZZX+Something_Smart
ZZZX+Jaack
Dunhallym+ProHawk
Dunhallym+Gamma Emerald
Dunhallym+Something_Smart
ProHawk+Tenshii
ProHawk+Something_Smart
Tenshii+Gamma Emerald
Something_Smart+Jaack

Total Scumteams Possible
ZZZX=3
Dunhallym=4
ProHawk=3
Tenshii=2
Gamma Emerald=2
Something_Smart=4
Jaack=2

(Analysis in next post)

[Jaack]

Well as surprising as that flip is to me, it does do a decent job at clearing out some possibilities.

That being said, I still don't see an easy solution.

From my perspective, there is a 50% chance that Dunhallym is scum which goes against my read there, but I guess I have to take that into account when looking for scum today.

I have a few other ideas but I want some more information first.

Let's start here

@tenshii - Are you still scumreading ProHawk?

[Tenshii]

@tenshii - Are you still scumreading ProHawk?

No not atm. Just kinda paranoid he shifted from a scumread to a townread on me after I townread him but other than that I feel okay on townreading him. Are you scumreading ProHawk?

[Tenshii]

From my perspective, there is a 50% chance that Dunhallym is scum which goes against my read there, but I guess I have to take that into account when looking for scum today.

I don't understand how you got that.

[Tenshii]

@Something_Smart Why were and/or are you scumreading me?

[Jaack]

No not atm. Just kinda paranoid he shifted from a scumread to a townread on me after I townread him but other than that I feel okay on townreading him. Are you scumreading ProHawk?

I am not scumreading ProHawk. Just doing some due diligence.

I don't understand how you got that.

There are 10 remaining possible scumteams from an agnostic perspective, but excluding the two that include me (because I know I'm town) leaves me with eight to consider. Four of those contain Dunhallym.

[ZZZX]

wait this is a nightless?

Someone hasn't been doin'his homework. mehh

[ZZZX]

ill read up soon. Kinda busy for now.

[Dunhallym]

I won't be able to post detailed thoughts before tomorrow evening but here is where I stand.

From my PoV things look pretty straightforward. There are 6 possible teams, 3 of which contain Ssmart .
Atm I town read Jaack and ProHawk. Leaves me with ZZZX /SSmart or gamma/Tenshii.
So taking both into account gives SSmart as today's best lynch.
This being said day 2 is time to reevaluate. So I plan on having a look back at both ProHawk and Jaack. I partially did ProHawk yesterday.

SSmart a question for you : why do you think the post you quoted is bad? Tenshii misinterpreted it so I guess it wasn't very clear.

[Gamma Emerald]

wait this is a nightless?

Someone hasn't been doin'his homework. mehh

For Night 1 only

[Something_Smart]

@Something_Smart Why were and/or are you scumreading me?

I was scumreading you, a read which I explained somewhat in 210. Your posts still don't feel that genuine, but my scumread on you is weaker than it was, because I don't like Dunhallym nearly as much and I know you two can't be partners. (I could still see you being with ProHawk though.)

SSmart a question for you : why do you think the post you quoted is bad? Tenshii misinterpreted it so I guess it wasn't very clear.

I see how Tenshii misinterpreted it, and I'm interpreting it to mean that you scumread ssbm's abrupt change of opinion (which was later revealed to be a reaction test), which I'm pretty sure is what you meant.

It's just a really shallow point being used to justify a mildly opportunistic read. Like, yes, he changed his mind abruptly. Yes, it might have been desperate. But he wasn't in so much danger that his lynch was nearly inevitable and as scum he definitely would have realized that doing a 180 with his reads and pushing a completely new person would not have been a good way to avoid being lynched. (Scum try to avoid being conspicuous, so a better plan as scum would have been to take his strongest scumread and start pushing it really hard.) In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out" whereas a scum thought process would be "How can I make this flailing townie look bad?"

[ProHawk]

Post after I get some time to re-align.

[Jaack]

Well I wanted some other people to add more, but waiting is lame.

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch. The odds are good and I think that SS's points in 322 are good enough that my townread there has faded. But I'm not locked in there.

Looking at the rest of the chart in case Dunhallym is town, that leaves the following pairs

ZZZX+SS

ZZZX has been a non-entity and thus difficult to gauge in terms of pairs. No lean here.

ZZZX+Jaack

I'm town

ProHawk+Tenshii

This looks pretty possible. In fact, I think it's the most likely single pair. Both players initially scumread eachother but have now faded those into townreads. Bussing your partner is especially bad in this setup, which is why neither could maintain those scumreads.

ProHawk+SS

Some similar feels to ProHwak+Tenshii, but SS's scumread on ProHawk seemed a lot more serious and genuine than either of the previous two.

Tenshii+Gamma Emerald

Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

Something_Smart+Jaack

I'm Town

I think we need to lynch at least one of Tenshii and ProHawk either D2 or D3 just to clear up that pairing because I think there's a lot of evidence supporting it. But the math points pretty heavily towards Dunhallym. I could lynch anyone of those three tbh.