Newbie 1758 - Symmetry (Game Over)

[Human Sequencer]

Nah Howard is town.

[Human Sequencer]

Sobolev bussing Jackel isn't as unrealistic as I thought.
She's really concerned about how I read her. She asked before the flip (476) and after the flip (571) what Jackel's flip would have/did have on how I read her, and I was the one who suspected her the most.

Reading over her iso there's a whole fucktonne of little things that rub me the wrong way about her. Really good D3 lynch candidate after HM.

[Human Sequencer]

I didn't specify that properly, I believe that her concerned about how I read her in relation to the flip could be her measuring up whether it's a worthwhile bus and then later wondering if it got her off the hook.

[Joshz]

now i dont want doc to claim yet but

if we assume i, locust, psyche are town, a doc claim would make 4 town. that means the lynch pool would be out of whoever the not doc claim is, aka 3 of sobolev, human, hm, and howard. we can afford 2 mislynches. so, assuming doc is one of those and not myself or psyche, doesnt town win invariably with a doc claim?

[Joshz]

thats something that should happen TOMORROW if hm flips green. NOT today.

[Human Sequencer]

I was thinking about suggesting that a little while ago and I don't think it's worth doing unless we get to lylo and the doc is still alive.

[HowardRoark]

@Human Sequencer: You haven't really explained why you believe Jackel98's partner was not on the lynch. I see you are looking at Sobolev Space again, but clear understanding of why you initially felt there was no bus will help me with my read on you. I'm still looking at the lynch, but you were certainly the first to jump out at me. 476 is not the correct link; it is 467. I'm not sure what the second one should be. Why do you now town read me?

@Hellfire Missile: Not sure what more to do right now to assist you. Read, think, question, share, ... Please do not join non-Newbie games without having some better ability. Please do not post the small, crammed, "encrypted" text. Posting as such is anti-town and possibly being mod killed (MK) for breaking rules is much worse than requesting replacement. I hope that you can learn to have fun and play with us.

If we policy lynch Hellfire Missile today we go into night 5:1. (Yes, I'm excluding if he is scum because then the rest of my thought train doesn't matter.) With a successful night kill (NK) we start D3 at 4:1. Assuming another mislynch and successful NK we are in a 2:1 lynch or lose (LyLo) for D4. I'd rather lynch scum, but it also means that we have some game left to play. (I now see Joshz is already on this train. Need to put more thought into when/if a doc should claim.)

Until something changes I am currently only willing to be solid that Locust (cop), Huntress (investigation), and myself are town. I would like a bit more time and discussion before considering the policy lynch.

[Human Sequencer]

@howard
476[/[post] [post]531
On disregarding the bus: I did quote it, but I'll go in a little more detail.
This is the lynch wagon.
Loopdan, Human Sequencer, Locust, Joshz, Sobolev Space
Loopdan is conftown and dead. He can't be scum.
Locust is conftown. Not scum.
I read Josh as lock town.
Sobolev Space: at the time I didn't really subscribe to the belief that Sobolev's read progression on Jackel was likely to be a bus, but as I've said I'm coming around to doubting it now.
Obviously I'm town as far as I'm concerned.

I townread you because there's zero scum motivation for most of what you've been doing. I had an 'Aha!' moment when I realized that your 'Not Lynching' column had two conf townies at a time before either of them were 100% confirmed, and that you wanted to lynch Jackel (Scum) and pushed that wagon until they claimed tracker. You weren't around for the CC, so it makes perfect sense you wouldn't be on the lynch wagon. Locust also townread you yesterday-- Locust is conftown.
Also in that list you scumread the IC slot, logic I can agree with because I wanted that gone all the way until they became conftown.

You are probably my strongest townread right now, above Josh. Not counting the conftowns of course.

I do have a problem with explaining the motivations behind my reads, I always just forget to go that extra mile to convey it as clearly as I have in this post. Please keep prodding me to do it, especially if it helps you read me better.

[Human Sequencer]

Alright once more w/ feeling
476
531

[Joshz]

See, I thought Josh was a doctor. I guess he just doesn't know how to read tables.

does anyone know what this means btw rofl

[Hellfire Missile]

@Hellfire Missile: Not sure what more to do right now to assist you. Read, think, question, share, ... Please do not join non-Newbie games without having some better ability.

my biggest problem is if i die in this game i cant join any more newbie games as a noob.

[Joshz]

hey is it against the rules to discuss hellfire's other game? it is still going on (day 5) but all I want to discuss is hellfire, who was lynched day 1, and discuss his flip.

[Sobolev Space]

@Joshz I think we covered earlier that you can't talk about ongoing games even if the person is already out of the game.

@Sequencer: Re: posts 476, 531
I was legitimately just curious how your ranking of me interacted with Jackel's status. I personally didn't see myself as having too many interactions with Jackel so I was surprised you gave enough weight to his flip to entirely clear me of suspicious in 530.
More importantly, if I was scum there's no way I would risk letting Locust live/inspect last night considering I was his biggest scum read through all of yesterday so there's a good chance he would inspect me.

@HM: This is my first forum game so my advice won't be the best but what I've been trying to do when I read through people's posts is to examine whether their stated intentions actually match up with how they act an evaluate arguments. It requires some close reading and a bit of going off of gut feeling but I think it's worthwhile.

@all: I agree if we have a doc they should refrain from claiming until lylo but I also don't think we've proved yet that we're in a setup with a doc. We could be in a {VT, cop, goon} setup where the remaining goon refrained from killing Locust last night so it looks like there's a doc and they can fakeclaim doc when we get to lylo and nobody will be able to disprove them. It's a gutsy play but its possible. I'll believe we're in the other setup once I actually see evidence of a successful rb/protection.

[Hellfire Missile]

hey is it against the rules to discuss hellfire's other game? it is still going on (day 5) but all I want to discuss is hellfire, who was lynched day 1, and discuss his flip.

Yes. Look at pg. 2

[Joshz]

ok

my lynch is staying on hm

[Locust]

@Hellfire Missile: Not sure what more to do right now to assist you. Read, think, question, share, ... Please do not join non-Newbie games without having some better ability.

my biggest problem is if i die in this game i cant join any more newbie games as a noob.

But if when we lynch scum the game will be over as well.

Do me a favour here Hellfire list do a quick 1 - 2 liner on everyone tell me why you think they are town or scum. You honestly have nothing to loose at this point.

I really dont get this urge to rush out a lynch. Day one we went right o the last day and got scum.

If Hellfire flips scum we win if we lynch him now or lynch him in 48 hours. If he flips town then I would be gunning for Josh tomorrow as he has been pushing for this from the start of the day and pushing hard. Human as well. Chill out there is plenty of game to be had. Everyone on Hellfire makes it easy for scum to hide now at least with some more options for a lynch today we might get a better read into day 3 should Hellfire flip town.

now i dont want doc to claim yet but

if we assume i, locust, psyche are town, a doc claim would make 4 town. that means the lynch pool would be out of whoever the not doc claim is, aka 3 of sobolev, human, hm, and howard. we can afford 2 mislynches. so, assuming doc is one of those and not myself or psyche, doesnt town win invariably with a doc claim?

Damn dude I had some town vibes but I wouldn't go as far as to say you are 100% town. I dont have much experiance of the meta here, but if I had someone pushing this hard IRL and making claims like this and ..

we lynched scum mostly because of me imo tho thats probably partially ego bias
<snip>

I would be giving them a big stare down to see if they were sweating. To add to that I find your explanation about why Loopdan was an obvious lynch choice in 563 not sitting right. With that said I have just read over your previous wagon and I am still leaning town for you at the moment. I guess it may be just a clash of play styles.

Human is in a rush again, but that was the same day 1. Human you seem sure about Joshz convince me he is lock town.

Huntress its nearly 2200 in the UK hopefully your dinner was good what are your reads for the day?

[Joshz]

im not 100% town

i said if for a reason

to explain 563: that's who i would have killed if i was scum (obviously roleblocker, if i was just a goon there is actually no good reason not to kill you). i would have roleblocked you, and killed loopdan. he was obv town, led the jackel wagon, and is an experienced player. really, my kill is typically given to the most experienced person not being scum read, obviously this changes with other prs as a factor but they arent a thing itg. also, if there was a mafia roleblocker they werent realistically going to target the cop, so as a doc itd be pretty safe to go for another target.

it is not an urge to rush onto a lynch. its an urge to stop wasting time. the fact this day is still going and now your paranoia is making you scum read me is a testimony to that. you need reasons why im town? id like to point out i was the one defending a you lynch and a psyche lynch, before either of you were proven town. i was the one that said we should lynch out of the se/ic people. i cant say anything else ive done because this game has been dead as fuck and a LOT of the content has been from me. im in a lot of games, i see no reason to sit around wasting time when there is going to be no new information today. if he flips town you should be gunning for human, again depending on the night kill, but this is a newbie game so i understand peoples reads wont be as accurate. the newbie factor on everyone is something to consider and is affecting your judgment.

there is no situation where hellfire is not the right lynch. there is going to be no new valuable information generated today. sure, sit around, do nothing for 10 days. why not.

[Sobolev Space]

If Hellfire flips scum we win if we lynch him now or lynch him in 48 hours. If he flips town then I would be gunning for Josh tomorrow as he has been pushing for this from the start of the day and pushing hard. Human as well. Chill out there is plenty of game to be had. Everyone on Hellfire makes it easy for scum to hide now at least with some more options for a lynch today we might get a better read into day 3 should Hellfire flip town.

I agree with all of this. I think the biggest issue if we lynch Hellfire and he flips town is figuring out why the remaining scum didn't kill/rb you last night. I've given two theories:
A) They were trying to set up HM for a lynch d2
B) They're trying to convince us a doc is in the setup so they can fakeclaim doc in lylo to win
But for either of them to work the remaining scum has to be someone who wasn't worried about being inspected last night which points to Joshz, Howard or (maybe) Sequencer.

[Sobolev Space]

That said I still am not opposed to a HM lynch today if we get some good discussion in beforehand. I do think that an HM lynch would probably provide a lot more info than any other lynches for the reasons above.

[Joshz]

That's a fucking awful plan that physically can't work because leaving the cop alive literally just gives town a free clear every day

[Joshz]

Even assuming locust didn't stumble on the scum there's one less townie every day who can be lynched. You can't win with a strat like that.

[Joshz]

You forgot theory 3

Hellfire Missile just didn't know he could use 2 actions

[Sobolev Space]

I mean I agree its a big stretch but if HM isn't scum I literally can't see any other reason for not killing/rb'ing Locust last night. It is most probable that HM is scum but we still have to think about what happens if he flips town.

[Sobolev Space]

Keep in mind that for both theories they can still rb/kill Locust tonight. So the risk isn't that big.

[Joshz]

if he flips town me/howard/you (in order of likelyhood in my opinion) are going to die, of course assuming locust doesnt. then we lynch hs. if neither of them are scum, its lylo, but i dont see that as particularly likely.