Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: in my first game here.

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack

You said the Gamma/Tenshii pair was unlikely because

Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

can you point to me where you saw this discussion because I rapidly ISOed Gamma and can't find it.

@Gamma

You said yesterday that you thought Jaack's push on Jin was scummy. Do you still suspect Jaack or have you changed your mind and in both cases why?

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

[Dunhallym]

@Tenshii

Okay nvm. I don't get why Jin flip flopped on his read on Jaack. It only makes sense if he was trying to cover up for himself.

VOTE: Jin/Kyouko

Can you explain what you meant by "cover up for himself"? Also why did you bring this argument at this specific point when it had been debated over and over for pages before?

[Something_Smart]

sorry guys

I'll respond to stuff soon

[Creature]

Tenshii has been prodded.

Votecount 2.2

Votecount 2.2

[0] Jaack
[0] Something_Smart - Gamma Emerald
[0] Gamma Emerald
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[0] Dunhallym
[1] ZZZX - ProHawk

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Jaack, Something_Smart, Tenshii, Dunhallym, ZZZX

7 players are alive and 4 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-16 15:00:00)

[Jaack]

You said the Gamma/Tenshii pair was unlikely because

Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

can you point to me where you saw this discussion because I rapidly ISOed Gamma and can't find it.

I just checked I guess I misremembered. But my read still stands because Gamma spent an awful lot of time talking about confirming Tenshii and other such stuff. I feel that seems unlikely to come from a scumpair.

[Tenshii]

.... I may need to do some re-evaluating...

[5] ssbm_Kyouko - Jaack, ProHawk, Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym, ssbm_Kyouko [LYNCH]

This wagon can't be ALL town can it?

Unlikely for it to be all town.

VOTE: Dunhallym

His posts have a decent trajectory of trying to figure out where scum is hiding. What is your read there?

Null. I think alot of what he's done is mechanical and NAI.

@Tenshii

Okay nvm. I don't get why Jin flip flopped on his read on Jaack. It only makes sense if he was trying to cover up for himself.

VOTE: Jin/Kyouko

Can you explain what you meant by "cover up for himself"? Also why did you bring this argument at this specific point when it had been debated over and over for pages before?

As in abandoning the read for the purpose of building a counterwagon. I brought it up because my read on him changed. Also do you have reads?

[Dunhallym]

I have a few reads but as stated previously day 2 is reevaluating time. I do things little bit by little bit and will give full thoughts over the week end.
Why are you voting me now?

[Tenshii]

The primary reason why you've been townread is because you're scumhunting in the sense of asking questions yet with all of the questions you ask I don't see you drawing any conclusions.

Also in a worst case scenario with you flipping town, a nightkill makes 5way lylo simpler to play because each person alive in 5way only has 1-2 combos.

[Something_Smart]

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

Because they probably wouldn't have changed and deadline wagons usually aren't good anyway.
Because I don't usually have particular interest in convincing other people that I'm right, and I don't have a lot of faith in my reads anyway.
And also because I was busy and didn't want to waste the time considering the first two reasons.

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

Okay, it's how I play, you can play differently if you want.
It's not being concerned with going against the tide; it's literally common sense. A lynch can't happen with only one vote. And up until I voted, nobody else had shown any interest in voting there.
And I can still make a case on Tenshii if you want, but he's not my strongest scumread anymore.

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

I'll get to this when I have some time to reread (probably Sunday). It was mostly meta and gut having correctly gut-read him in a previous game.

[Dunhallym]

The primary reason why you've been townread is because you're scumhunting in the sense of asking questions yet with all of the questions you ask I don't see you drawing any conclusions.

Also in a worst case scenario with you flipping town, a nightkill makes 5way lylo simpler to play because each person alive in 5way only has 1-2 combos.

Ok. So I'm not quick enough for your taste. So tell me what have YOU been doing? Or anyone for that matter? What are your reads?

[Tenshii]

Ok. So I'm not quick enough for your taste. So tell me what have YOU been doing? Or anyone for that matter? What are your reads?

I don't know/remember. I don't think I've done much, if anything, but I don't care enough to reread my ISO to confirm

ProHawk Town - Because of how he interacted with me
SS Town - Articulates well and has unbiased thought processes from what I can tell
Jaack Null - Hes a wide townread but I don't really see it. If I had to force a read I'd say town mainly cuz everyone else isl
Gamma Null - P-Edit: So originally I had nothing on Gamma and was gonna put him down as a nullread but when I was typing this out I kinda had to force myself to think about it and then I remembered what (I think ZZZX) brought up about his posting style and it still holds true. I don't really remember him doing anything significant. So scumread.
ZZZX Null - Don't like his activity though
Dunhall Scum - Scumhunting without coming to conclusions.

So atm I think Gamma has a slightly better chance of flipping scum (off of reads) but off of statistics I think it's better to lynch Dunhall.

[Gamma Emerald]

ZZZX doesn't seem to have posted ANYTHING wrt me.

[Dunhallym]

Ok. So I'm not quick enough for your taste. So tell me what have YOU been doing? Or anyone for that matter? What are your reads?

I don't know/remember. I don't think I've done much, if anything, but I don't care enough to reread my ISO to confirm

ProHawk Town - Because of how he interacted with me
SS Town - Articulates well and has unbiased thought processes from what I can tell
Jaack Null - Hes a wide townread but I don't really see it. If I had to force a read I'd say town mainly cuz everyone else isl
Gamma Null - P-Edit: So originally I had nothing on Gamma and was gonna put him down as a nullread but when I was typing this out I kinda had to force myself to think about it and then I remembered what (I think ZZZX) brought up about his posting style and it still holds true. I don't really remember him doing anything significant. So scumread.
ZZZX Null - Don't like his activity though
Dunhall Scum - Scumhunting without coming to conclusions.

So atm I think Gamma has a slightly better chance of flipping scum (off of reads) but off of statistics I think it's better to lynch Dunhall.

No you've not done much. Nor has anyone. From memory apart from SSmart's push on me and Prohawk voting ZZZX the only thing happening in the past two pages is me asking questions and people answering to them. So yeah, I'm kinda pissed off that you vote me because I've been doing what I had the time to do during the week when I had said from the start I wouldn't have time to give thoughts before the week-end.

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

Because they probably wouldn't have changed and deadline wagons usually aren't good anyway.
Because I don't usually have particular interest in convincing other people that I'm right, and I don't have a lot of faith in my reads anyway.
And also because I was busy and didn't want to waste the time considering the first two reasons.

ssbm did his post 2 days before the deadline, and you brought earlier against me the fact that he could have changed the tide and that it was not a desperate move. Besides, if you really suspected Tenshii then you cannot say that this particular deadline wagon was not good! The "I can make a case on Tenshii if necessary" is particularly bad IMO.
As for the part about not trying to convince others, either you are telling the truth and then either we have a really different idea of what mafia is about or you are being dishonest.

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

Okay, it's how I play, you can play differently if you want.
It's not being concerned with going against the tide; it's literally common sense. A lynch can't happen with only one vote. And up until I voted, nobody else had shown any interest in voting there.
And I can still make a case on Tenshii if you want, but he's not my strongest scumread anymore.

Putting a single vote on someone who is not suspected just before the deadline is indeed not going to achieve anything. But this is not true earlier in the day, and IIRC you replaced 4 or 5 days before the deadline so if you really suspected Tenshii there was no reason not to vote. Besides I remember that I at least commented that I had had similar thoughts on Tenshii after your original post.
And yes, I want to see your case on Tenshii. The "I'd love" I used before was a polite way to say that. I don't care if he's not anymore your top scumread.

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

Why? Can you give me a good reason we are not voting any of you today? If it's based on numbers (IIRC you said yesterday "we're not lynching based on statistics" or something like that but whatever) then lynching you makes as much sense as lynching me: considering everyone's POV as town, for you and Jaack, I'm more likely to be scum, for Gamma and me, you are more likely and for the rest we are equivalent. If it's based on other elements, then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?
Additional questions: if I'm today's lynch in your opinion, then why are you not voting me? If there are opther possibilities in your mind then who and why?

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

I'll get to this when I have some time to reread (probably Sunday). It was mostly meta and gut having correctly gut-read him in a previous game.

OK.

So I've been waiting for your answer before making a decision but VOTE: SSmart
Part of the reasons are stated in this post but to clarify: you said yesterday that your main scumread was Tenshii but you never really tried to get him lynched or to move the tide to him. You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".
Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

[Dunhallym]

EBWOP: As for the part about not trying to convince others, either you are telling the truth and then we have a really different idea of what mafia is about or you are being dishonest.

there was one "either" too much

[Dunhallym]

OK, I won't have time for more now.
I've quickly reread Gamma/Tenshii (hence all the previous questions about them). I see Jaack's point. I have a hard time reading Gamma as he's the kind of player that I feel I'll always scumread, which is why I'm really interested in other's opinion. As for Tenshii, I dislike his vote hopping but he has also made some good points even though I'm kind of pissed at him right now.
So from my POV ZZZX/SSmart is the most likely, and my suspicions of SSmart do nothing to alleviate that.
I still need to reread Jaack and Prohawk though.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 2.3

Votecount 2.3

[0] Jaack
[2] Something_Smart - Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym
[0] Gamma Emerald
[0] Tenshii
[0] ProHawk
[1] Dunhallym - Tenshii
[1] ZZZX - ProHawk

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Jaack, Something_Smart, ZZZX

7 players are alive and 4 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-16 15:00:00)

[Jaack]

VOTE: ProHawk

I think I want this today.

[Dunhallym]

Inactivity is killing this game.
Are you all having finals?

@Jaack are you short on time or are you deliberately keeping quiet to observe? And if the latter do you plan on giving thoughts/explaining things later on?

[Creature]

ProHawk has been prodded.

[Jaack]

Inactivity is killing this game.
Are you all having finals?

@Jaack are you short on time or are you deliberately keeping quiet to observe? And if the latter do you plan on giving thoughts/explaining things later on?

Combination of both. I've been wanting to see some more from a few players in their natural habitat, but no one seems to want to oblige me.

If you're wondering about my ProHawk, it just that I think that Tenshii-ProHawk pair is too likely to ignore at this point, and ProHawk is more likely to independently be scum.

[Something_Smart]

Inactivity is killing this game.
Are you all having finals?

hey how'd ya guess

@SSmart

Some questions for you:
- Since “In general, a town thought process is likely to be closer to, "What is he trying to accomplish with this? Let me try to figure it out”: what did you think ssbm was trying to achieve?

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

Those are the three posts you made between ssbm post and his lynch:

Right now I'm actually more confident in ssbm being town than in Dunhallym being town. I don't know if I'm confident enough in either one of them for ssbm's plan to work, but that doesn't matter yet because Tenshii is just scum.
VOTE: Tenshii

Also Gamma why is your vote still on me?

It looks like ssbm is advocating a me/Dunhallym/Jaack townblock.

If we're going to do a townblock, the one I'd be most comfortable with right now is me/Gamma/Jaack. (Although I'm a bit less confident on Gamma, but I'll reread his posts and come to a definite conclusion before agreeing to this.) If we do agree to this townblock, then we have an automatic win by lynching Dunhallym. If Dunhallym is town, then ZZZX is cleared, and if Dunhallym is scum, then Tenshii is cleared, and either way we have 3 lynches and a suspect pool of 3.

If people don't agree to this, then we should lynch Tenshii, because I'm pretty sure Tenshii is scum (and I can make a case if necessary) and Tenshii flipping scum is auto win as well.

If you thought that ssbm was likely town and thought he was “trying to identify town and scum”, and you were really that sure that Tenshii was scum, then why didn’t you try to convince people, and in particular Jaack as you hard townread him, and Galmma, your other townread, who both voted ssbm at that time?

Because they probably wouldn't have changed and deadline wagons usually aren't good anyway.
Because I don't usually have particular interest in convincing other people that I'm right, and I don't have a lot of faith in my reads anyway.
And also because I was busy and didn't want to waste the time considering the first two reasons.

ssbm did his post 2 days before the deadline, and you brought earlier against me the fact that he could have changed the tide and that it was not a desperate move. Besides, if you really suspected Tenshii then you cannot say that this particular deadline wagon was not good! The "I can make a case on Tenshii if necessary" is particularly bad IMO.
As for the part about not trying to convince others, either you are telling the truth and then either we have a really different idea of what mafia is about or you are being dishonest.

He could have changed the tide. But if people weren't scumreading Tenshii then the Tenshii wagon would have failed. And by deadline wagon I mean a wagon where a bunch of people go, "Well, Tenshii isn't my top scumread, but I could compromise there" right before deadline. That would have likely happened if I had tried hard to shift the wagon if he had been town. If he were scum, then it probably would have resulted in an awkward wagon split and probably would have fallen on either nobody or ssbm. The "I can make a case" was just me showing that I can back up my reads, but don't want to unless somebody actually cares.

And yeah, we probably do have a different idea of what mafia is about. But I'm like this all the time.

- You said Tenshii was your main suspect in your first catch up post(#210) but only voted for him in #311. Why did you wait that long before casting a vote?

I'm generally hesitant to vote, especially soon after replacing in because I know that my reads are often bad and sometimes change a lot. (In this case, Tenshii did very little in those hundred posts to change that read.) Besides, there's generally not much point to a single vote that nobody else agrees with, so I only voted Tenshii when it looked like an actual wagon might develop on him.

I was mistaken, you voted in #287, but it doesn’t really change my point.
I disagree with you. To me voting is committing to your read. It’s fine to go with FOS if you already have a vote somewhere else as you cannot vote two players at the same time, but you never had a vote on anyone. Town shouldn’t be concerned about going against the tide and I don’t remember you trying to push Tenshii to get a better read on him. BTW I’d love to see your case on Tenshii now (see #291 that I quoted above).

This said, I'm really considering voting you at this point (yeah you can call me a hypocrite after what I've just written) but I have a hard time sorting things out as to whether my suspicions come from the fact I know you're wrong or if it's deeper, and for this I need a full rererad.

Okay, it's how I play, you can play differently if you want.
It's not being concerned with going against the tide; it's literally common sense. A lynch can't happen with only one vote. And up until I voted, nobody else had shown any interest in voting there.
And I can still make a case on Tenshii if you want, but he's not my strongest scumread anymore.

Putting a single vote on someone who is not suspected just before the deadline is indeed not going to achieve anything. But this is not true earlier in the day, and IIRC you replaced 4 or 5 days before the deadline so if you really suspected Tenshii there was no reason not to vote. Besides I remember that I at least commented that I had had similar thoughts on Tenshii after your original post.
And yes, I want to see your case on Tenshii. The "I'd love" I used before was a polite way to say that. I don't care if he's not anymore your top scumread.

I think that's just a matter of preference.
And ok, I'll show you what about Tenshii's D1 I didn't like.

@ProHawk: would you be willing to vote Dunhallym if you think she has a good chance of being scum?

Is this a trick question?

No, it's not a trick question. Vote Dunhallym if you think she's scum. We're not lynching me or ZZZX today.

Why? Can you give me a good reason we are not voting any of you today? If it's based on numbers (IIRC you said yesterday "we're not lynching based on statistics" or something like that but whatever) then lynching you makes as much sense as lynching me: considering everyone's POV as town, for you and Jaack, I'm more likely to be scum, for Gamma and me, you are more likely and for the rest we are equivalent. If it's based on other elements, then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?
Additional questions: if I'm today's lynch in your opinion, then why are you not voting me? If there are opther possibilities in your mind then who and why?

We're not lynching me because I'm town and because my alignment is usually painfully obvious before too long. (At least, it's obvious to me that I'm playing my towngame or my scumgame, but I think that most other people will find it pretty obvious as well.)
We're not lynching ZZZX because he's probably town, and because there are far better choices.
I think right now it's down to you or ProHawk, or maaaaaybe Gamma pending a reread there.

@SSmart

Could you try to explain your townread on Gamma, i-e point specific things that you think make him likely town?

I'll get to this when I have some time to reread (probably Sunday). It was mostly meta and gut having correctly gut-read him in a previous game.

OK.

So I've been waiting for your answer before making a decision but VOTE: SSmart
Part of the reasons are stated in this post but to clarify: you said yesterday that your main scumread was Tenshii but you never really tried to get him lynched or to move the tide to him.

It's not always the responsibility of town to convince others to vote with him. And it's weird that you say this when you scumread ssbm but didn't vote him until Tenshii "reminded" you that you ought to vote?

You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".

This is either a massive reading comprehension failure or a flat-out lie.

Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

I mean, that basically is what it is. You do have a high probability of being scum, and you made a bad post, and I'm pressuring you because of it.

Spoiler: Tenshii

Keeping in mind, this is a past-case, that I don't fully believe in before, about why I scumread Tenshii at the end of Day 1.
73 was kinda awkward, as in I don't know if town would feel the need to point it out.
His Jin vote in 105 has really stretchy reasoning, which would normally be par for the course on page 5 but he doesn't handle it like he knows it's weak or like he knows it's pretty early or anything.
127 final paragraph gave me bad feels, being defensive without being overtly so and making a point of articulating that he doesn't townread Jaack.
ProHawk vote in 128 isn't terrible, but he doesn't stick with it at all, when it seems like his reasoning is exposed as flimsy. (Even if it was, the post quoted-- 121-- is indeed a terrible post.)
And then, while he's still voting ProHawk, he sheeps his townread in 157 to conclude that Gamma is town too.

Spoiler: Gamma

+points for immediately talking about the setup (14, 16, 18).
Apparently real vote on ProHawk in 30 because he "doesn't feel very towny."
Then he votes Jaack in 102 for "pushing SAJ over NAI stuff." Which is funny because in that post he is pushing Jaack over NAI stuff
Comments that Jaack/Jin could be SvS before looking at chart-- I don't know how to feel about this
155 throws some shade on my slot for having duplicated picks
159 looks characteristic of his towngame; it's probably not something he would think to try as scum but it looks like he's doing genuine solving.
In 213 he defines his play in Normal Idea Mafia (where he was scum) as "don't think you can be wrong." Which means that if he's scum then he switched up his strategy significantly and was very aware of doing so.
Wants to lynch Jin for information, seeing as a townflip would make Tenshii town because he townread ProHawk. When I asked him about his ProHawk read he basically brushed me off.
240 is kinda awkward, I know that Gamma in general is more awkward as town than as scum, I don't know how that applies here though
And then like Dunhallym, he doesn't move his vote until reminded to do so (in 289).
He rejects a townblock containing him in 292, which is a pretty towny move.

So my read here is weaker than it was, because I don't know how much there is that he couldn't fake as scum. But it's stronger than the spoiler makes it sound, because there is a significant gut/meta component that doesn't really come out in a PBPA.

But Gamma still hasn't explained his ProHawk townread. @Gamma can you explain why you did townread ProHawk, and if you still do?

After doing all of that rereading, I'm even more confused as to where I want to vote. I agree with Jaack that Tenshii/ProHawk is very possible, and if I am wrong about Dunhallym then that's where I'd want to go. But some of Dunhallym's points on me are pretty bad and Gamma's vote on me isn't stellar either.

Also

happy birthday Creature!

[Dunhallym]

@SSmart
OK for the Tenshii case and thanks for the Gamma points. About the first part of your post, just one thing I want to answer: maybe you're right on you being obviously town but this is my second game here and I've never played with any of you. So meta is not going to help me. I've tried to have a look at previous town or scum for a few of you but honestly I don't have the time or energy to do it seriously enough to get a real feel.
Other points I want to answer to:

It's not always the responsibility of town to convince others to vote with him. And it's weird that you say this when you scumread ssbm but didn't vote him until Tenshii "reminded" you that you ought to vote?

If you reread my ISO completely and are being honest, you'll see why I hadn't yet voted ssbm: I didn't want to put him at l-1 yet in the post where I said to consider my vote on him, then someone else (Tenshii IIRC) put him at l-1 and I didn't want to hammer yet either. I only voted after ssbm was back at l-2.

You now say that you understood that ssbm was trying to evaluate town/scum with his play but when I read your posts I don't get the impression that you saw anything else in his post than the "vote Tenshii".

This is either a massive reading comprehension failure or a flat-out lie.

I've quoted your three posts. You also talked about the "town block" idea, but I don't see anything that indicates you had guessed ssbm's true intents and not taken his post at face value (that's what I meant but didn't chose my words well). If I'm dumb or suck at English comprehension then so be it.

Additionally, I feel that your push on me is more "Dun has a high probability of being scum, and I can use this post against her" rather than you really trying to get a feel on me. I had this impression from your first answer but sisn't want to vote on it as I'm obviously biased on the matter, but your lack of further answer confirms this impression.

I mean, that basically is what it is. You do have a high probability of being scum, and you made a bad post, and I'm pressuring you because of it.

You miss my point here: I don't have a problem with you pressuring a post you think is bad. I have a problem because I think you are not using this pressure to evaluate me but rather that you found a pretext to suspect me and are using it.

Now, I'd like to hear what others think of our exchange because I have too many scumreads right now.
More to come

[Dunhallym]

So I said I'd do rereads on Prohawk and Jaack. Which I've done.
Prohawk first: I said earlier that I townread Prohawk. Reasons are: the agressive way he entered the game, the fact that I agree with his reasonings and the fact that he hasn't really done anything that leads me to believe he's scum. On the reread, I've not seen anything that changes my mind. So the only thing against him is his potential connexion to Tenshii. And yeah, I can see scumTenshii. But I also hate the idea of lynching someone on the basis of a possible connection to someone who looks scum.

And there is another issue. Which is the paranoia I've had since the beginning of the day about Jaack. I've not posted anything about it because I wanted to see if it held to time or if Jaack would do things to make me feel better. That’s why most of my questions were for him.
So the thing is this: I’ve townread Jaack for all of day 1 and on the reread I don’t see anything that suggests otherwise. To summarize: the way Jaack took charge and got the game forward. He gave a strategy then followed up with it. And then there is post 324:

Well I wanted some other people to add more, but waiting is lame.

The math leads me to believe Dunhallym is simply the best lynch. The odds are good and I think that SS's points in 322 are good enough that my townread there has faded. But I'm not locked in there.

1) The way Jaack changes his mind on me. Especially after his previous post: makes it seem like he was just looking for a reason to change his read and is quick to jump on SSmart’s.

Looking at the rest of the chart in case Dunhallym is town, that leaves the following pairs

ZZZX+SS
ZZZX has been a non-entity and thus difficult to gauge in terms of pairs. No lean here.

2) He says “no lean” but pretty much discards the pair in the rest of his analysis. If he had used his townread of SSmart (see his answer to me later) I’d feel better but here it seems like he just doesn’t want us to consider this pair. Which consists of his two only possible partners.

ZZZX+Jaack
I'm town

ProHawk+Tenshii
This looks pretty possible. In fact, I think it's the most likely single pair. Both players initially scumread eachother but have now faded those into townreads. Bussing your partner is especially bad in this setup, which is why neither could maintain those scumreads.

ProHawk+SS
Some similar feels to ProHwak+Tenshii, but SS's scumread on ProHawk seemed a lot more serious and genuine than either of the previous two.

3) Again disregards the pair with SSmart but doesn’t mention it being because of a townread on SSmart. Which is weird

Tenshii+Gamma Emerald
Eh, this feels unlikely to me, mostly because Gamma has discussed lynching Dunhallym to confirm himself to Tenshii. But it's not out of the question.

Something_Smart+Jaack
I'm Town

I think we need to lynch at least one of Tenshii and ProHawk either D2 or D3 just to clear up that pairing because I think there's a lot of evidence supporting it. But the math points pretty heavily towards Dunhallym. I could lynch anyone of those three tbh.[/quote]
4) I didn’t like that he put Tenshii on the same level as Prohawk even though if he thinks Gamma/Tenshii is unlikely then Tenshii/Prohawk is the only scumteam involving Tenshii while Prohawk can still be partnered with SSmart and me. I don’t like it because it feels as if Jaack doesn’t really believe in his own comments on the pairs. I also don’t like that jaack avoids giving any reads here.
And now he’s voting Prohawk but doesn’t give any thoughts on the other things that have been going in the thread.

So to summarize my thoughts:
I scumread Tenshii but not Prohawk. I can see why the pair makes sense but I also think it's easy to build associations or to be wrong about associations.
Jaack and SSmart both bring points against Tenshii/Gamma and there's no reason not to trust them on that. They can be town and wrong but the fact that they both make points in the same direction leads me to disregard this connection.
I've not reread ZZZX but I scumread him yesterday and Jaack's and SSmart's refusal to consider him raises all kind of flags.
I'm wavering on SSmart. His last post sounded more genuine than the previous one.
I have a huge paranoia attack on Jaack.

In other words I'm lost. And the inactivity is not helping me.
And on this good night.