@MathBlade:
First off, I agree with what you said about town learning and adapting from mislynches, but I think the lesson we've learned is different. On both D1 and D2, there were strong pushes for LLD, but they failed and town was mislynched instead. LLD has been my top scumread for a long time, and two of her counterwagons going through has only strengthened my read on her. I would feel horrible if LLD is scum and wins despite me calling her scum since D1, and my reads won't be able to move on while she's alive.
Sonia, at that point in time, had a point about no one defending LLD on D1. At this point, the Vedith slot was played by lurker Frizzy. When TwiszTed replaced in, he had LLD as a top scumread, put her at L-1, but proceeded to quickhammer a town wagon the first chance he got. This reads, to me, like an aborted bus that switched into an opportunistic counterwagon hammer. I didn't scumread Vedith's play D2, and I got distracted by the night action analysis clusterfuck that lead nowhere, but now that BRantz flipped town I think Vedith is the likeliest buddy for LLD.
I started by asking for explanations on your townread on Sonia because I've had her as the alternative top scumread for LLD since D1. Her chainsaw defense of LLD made me fear that she knows LLD will flip town, her wanting the towncred for being against the lynch and setting up the next day's mislynch by scumreading people on the wagon. I would've gone after her if I didn't have an independent, stronger SR on LLD. My plan since D1 was "lynch LLD, go after Sonia if LLD flips town". This remained my plan, since the LLD wagon has been derailed twice now.
Your interactions with Sonia do give me pause about the Sonia read. It's been stagnant since D1, and I do see what you're saying about the derp town thing (personal insult not meant Sonia, it's a playstyle thing). I'll have to update my read on her.
There's a lot more I could say, but I think your reads have given a fresh new perspective that we needed, and I'm not in such a hurry to lynch LLD anymore. Updating my reads should take priority, and I see your point about there being less chance to do so during LYLO.
UNVOTE: "I still cant believe Leonshade just talked his way out of getting lynched by posting Lion King gifs"
- Vecna
