Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Titus]

VOTE: Alisae

Can't act like you want to buddy Titus and then trash her.

Yeah AJ's town. My scumreads went off somewhere.

[Tywin Lannister]

Titus still ISOing me with lots of fake claims. When I flip town, what then? Oh, I guess it's off to her other 3 scum in her bad theory. How many mislynches do scum need to win? Titus would love to get those, cuz she isn't evaluating the game from a perspective that I could be town. Otherwise, she'd know better than to base everything on a link with me and others. That's just really bad play. Unless Titus is always a bad player when town, then I highly suspect it comes from scum motivations. She is only wrong due to being scum and thus it's the best she can work with. It all naturally is false, so it isn't bad play from scum perspective. From a townie perspective though, she's anti-town at best. Her theory of 4 scum, while conf biasing every post I make as a connection to scum/town pre-flip is just idiotic. Is she always this bad @meta lovers? Seriously, it's not a townie move. I truly have to believe it's scum motivated, because it destroys her cred as a player otherwise.

[Gamma Emerald]

I am specifically talking about http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=67071

I can't think of any games where town Titus ignores me and then tries to wave off my vote as vindictive or something.

I'm reading this Street Fighter mafia Titus + Nero combined ISO and I don't think this is the same situation. Looks like you had a real reason to push her in that game, where she was contradicting herself in a couple of places about a wagon on Beeboy and where she wasn't defending her TR or something like that. I don't usually look at past games as evidence but I decided to this time for reasons.

Alisae, Titus, Gamma: What are your reads on the other 2 players in this list?

VOTE: Alisae
This looks scum, the buddying is stinky and she continues to sit around asking others for their opinions on situations. I don't like the show of solidarity with the Aj wagon to so quickly jump off of it. Too much fence-sitting and sheeping from this slot, and is now not voting 34 pages in.

I can finally answer the question here: Alisae scum, Titus town.

[Titus]

Oh yeah, I know I can't do that AJ. If I was scum, I gotta commit to the buddy. Otherwise I'm just killing myself. And at this point, I see nothing stopping the townies from forming a wagon on me.

You

only suspect townies

of wagoning you?

Why the sudden bow to flip from Twyin to me? Why the sudden 180?

[Gamma Emerald]

Ok just speed reading thru, so gonna give out "gut reads".
Tywin postin too much for scum? Sure I said that sarcastically, but he really is sticking his neck out. Tempering my scum read

SSbm town? His p #455 giving reads, trying tentatively to work out set up, which seems town.

Jeez Sonia punctuate if you want to be read. But town since she is stream of consciousness? p459

Cloud is town. He is saying things as he sees them.

Cabd looks really town. Unfortunately, he is a good player, so that means nothing. Null.

Lapsa lurkery scum?

ITS THE OLD PROBLEM, THE THREAD IS PROBABLY NINETY PER CENT TOWN. I'm ALWAYS UP FOR LYNCHING LURKERS, SINCE HIGH PROBABLITY OF SCUM. Worst case you get rid of useless town.

Certainly out of the "big guns", I'd be most willing to take a punt on itus, who I am sure is more "one- linery" than she was. Lots of activity, but where are the stribg reads?

More to come after tea! I know you can't wait for more Mozza

At this point I have reads on all players.

[Titus]

@Tywin, Being town and being honest are good steps to my townread.

Now off to grab the RVS mega wagons to revamp my theory.

[Gamma Emerald]

People who arent posting/lurkers
LIL, NERO, NERFS, TRANSCEND.

Bound to be at least one scum here.

Nerfs?

[Alisae]

Oh yeah, I know I can't do that AJ. If I was scum, I gotta commit to the buddy. Otherwise I'm just killing myself. And at this point, I see nothing stopping the townies from forming a wagon on me.

You

only suspect townies

of wagoning you?

Why the sudden bow to flip from Twyin to me? Why the sudden 180?

A. Never said only. But I'm acting very scummy, so I wouldn't be surprised if townies hopped on my wagon. This is what I meant by that.
B. I can't handle pressure that's probably very much so scum motivated. Hell, I bet Tywin even knows this.

[Gamma Emerald]

I prefer to have sex than watching anime since theyre mutually exclusive

BTW this is rood.

[CloudKicker]

VOTE: pine going back there

[Tywin Lannister]

@Tywin, Being town and being honest are good steps to my townread.

Now off to grab the RVS mega wagons to revamp my theory.

Why would I put any stock into your TRs when I think you're scum? My alignment doesn't magically flip back and forth based on whether you decide I'm town or not. You're theory is bad. Town lynch 1 day at a time. You can't find 4 scum on D1. It just won't happen, and if/when any of your reads flip town, your whole theory goes to shit. I don't see you as a bad player, so purposely using a bad theory and blatantly pushing it so hard must be scum motivated. I legitimately can't see any other reason to justify it.

[Gamma Emerald]

BTW your case on Titus is terrible.

What about my case?

Don't really care

[Gamma Emerald]

kk getting back to those Tywin and Alisae reads now that I'm sober.
Leaning Town on Alisae, not as sheepy as I thought, that was just the word I used last night to describe her very early play involving the introductions and all. I think the only sheepy vote she had was on Lapsa After she dropped the catposting things looked a lot better from her.
Tywin the play looks scummy so far, could wagon that if he keeps on the way he is and the right people are voting him, but not right now.

There are scum here in the bold:

Votecount 1.3

Lapsa 5 (

Pine

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

, Alisae,

Elbirn

)

So my vote will stay here until all the bold look town or someone else scums up the thread.

Why not Alisae? I can see how you formatted as I'm posting.

FOS: ssbm

At the time of this post I had reason to believe Alisae was town, so by PoE there's scum in the other 4. That format was intended to show both that the wagon was my initial pool and that Alisae was eliminated from that pool. I hadn't looked closely enough at her yet. Currently that pool is {Pine, Gamma, Alisae}.

I think for her being your top SR you aren't paying enough attention to what Titus is posting

????

Titus gave out a series of town reads, sheeped onto a bunch of wagons. I called her scum. She ignored me. I called her out on ignoring me. She waved off my vote on her as being vindictive, She put a case on Tywin for "lying" and has promised a case on Lapsa. Is this an accurate potrayl of her actions this game? What have I ignored that should comment on?

Titus has given a reasonable amount of TRs imo. I don't think her votes have been sheep votes onto a bunch of wagons. I would ignore you as either alignment for the reasons you provided for SRing her. You pushed too hard on one of the 5 players on the Lapsa wagon too quickly. You seem to be ignoring Pine, Gamma, Alisae, and Elbirn at the time that you start asking players for their Titus reads, when they should all be in your scope still, assuming that you are voting Titus for the reason you gave at the time of the vote. Tywin did lie, but it was due to a misunderstanding. She hasn't been online since promising a case on Lapsa. I can't make you see it if you haven't noticed it already.

@Alisae - quit telling Tywin to use fewer words. Take the time to read what he's saying, it's not like it's difficult.
@Tywin - In 1056 you indicate that there's a possibility that instead of it being scum!Titus and scum!Alisae it could be town!Titus and scum!Alisae. You don't indicate you think it could be scum!Titus and town!Alisae though, so why not vote Alisae instead?

I still think it's odd you SR Pine since he was the first vote.

[Gamma Emerald]

Why are you concerned about multiball?

I looked at archived Large Normals because I wanted to know how many mafia I should expect to see in this game. I've never played a game of this size before and didn't want to ask in the thread because that looks like a forced townslip. I noticed there were a lot of multiball games in the recent archive

OK.

[Tywin Lannister]

BTW your case on Titus is terrible.

What about my case?

Don't really care

Gamma scum buddies with Titus, or Titus is town and Gamma trying to earn TCred from her? He hasn't looked at her at all. Not even one post, yet calls her town. His only town read. Odd.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma, you're scummy for ignoring Titus and focusing your entire attention on townies.

I'm not ignoring Titus. And which townies?

[Gamma Emerald]

BTW your case on Titus is terrible.

What about my case?

Don't really care

Gamma scum buddies with Titus, or Titus is town and Gamma trying to earn TCred from her? He hasn't looked at her at all. Not even one post, yet calls her town. His only town read. Odd.

Not my only townread. Look at my other posts.

[Alisae]

Why are you concerned about multiball?

I looked at archived Large Normals because I wanted to know how many mafia I should expect to see in this game. I've never played a game of this size before and didn't want to ask in the thread because that looks like a forced townslip. I noticed there were a lot of multiball games in the recent archive

This seems akward to me. I dunno what about it, just akward and I don't like it.

[Gamma Emerald]

I do have to admit, the gladiate, if real, neuters my vca too...

This is horrible. VCA still works with gladiation.

No. It really doesn't. I have been reading through here and every post here is theory and a good chunk is wrong. VCA centers on the choices made. Gladiation artificially removes choices from the game, limiting data points.

Since I am making a post educating you, here's what you need for a good VCA

1) Every vote count colored, without bias of town by play
2) A scum flip not caused by a guilty/gladiator
3) 3 days of data to work with
4) A good understanding of optimal town and scum play
5) The ability to filter a VI.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I will get back to reading. If I only see more bad theory spec that makes me rip my hair out, I will be annoyed.

Jesus Christ, pot meet kettle.

Titus is the player that called 4 players the scum team and conf biases everything over her bad theory in hopes of proving it right somehow. It's the definition of a bad theory, yet she has the nerve to call out Gamma? Wow. Misplaced fucking ego that is.

Why do you say this and think I'm scum?

[Gamma Emerald]

All caught up. Final assessment soon.

[Titus]

Votecount 1.2

Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)
Alisae 4 (Aj The Epic, Nosferatu, Lapsa, Tywin Lannister)
Elbirn 2 (Lil Uzi Vert, xSoniaNevermindx)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Cabd)

Not Voting 5 (Nero Cain, Transcend, mozamis, ssbm_Kyouko, CloudKicker)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.3

Elbirn 6 (Lil Uzi Vert, xSoniaNevermindx, Aj The Epic, ssbm_Kyouko, Transcend, CloudKicker)
Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)
Alisae 3 (Nosferatu, Lapsa, Tywin Lannister)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Cabd)

Not Voting 2 (Nero Cain, mozamis)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.4

Elbirn 4 (Lil Uzi Vert, Aj The Epic, ssbm_Kyouko, Transcend)
CloudKicker 3 (xSoniaNevermindx, Tywin Lannister, Gamma Emerald)
Lapsa 2 (Pine, Titus)
Gamma Emerald 2 (Cabd, Alisae)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)
Lil Uzi Vert 1 (Elbirn)
Titus 1 (Nero Cain)

Not Voting 3 (mozamis, CloudKicker, Lapsa)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Ok, let's take a look at these wagons.

Laspa and Alisae are big RVS wagons. This suggests Alisae and Lapsa are not on the same team. If T v T, scum don't need two town RVS wagons. Scum wouldn't dual wagon each other, this suggests T v S.

We continue on to see that Elbrin v Laspa. Lapsa has the exact same wagon composition as before. Yet, a new wagon springs up on Elbrin. We can conclude here that Elbrin is NOT teamed with Lapsa, unless the entire gamestate is wrong. AJ moves away from Alisae to Elbrin. Yet, for the most part, this doesn't seem to be a scum push to save Lapsa. Yet, it provides an excellent excuse for any RVS bussers to back off.

Elbrin and Lapsa wagons start disintegrating at the same time. A cloudkicker wagon emerges.

There is a pattern I am seeing. Tywin sheeping a lot. Normally, without flips, I wouldn't detail this given a full VCA cannot be done. Yet his manta is Titus cannot be town because she's sheeping. Seems more like a case of projection than anything.

Now, let's bring this back to game play.

Lapsa has done nothing since being wagoned. Several offhand comments have been made about lurkers but more energy has been spent on discrediting me and my townblock reads. The last time he rolled scum, he tried a bit of discrediting but I rolled GS and basically guiltied everyone.

So refresh

Cloudkicker, Elbrin, Cabd, SSM, Titus hard town
Transcend Nero AJ, strong town

Pine diwn, now my read has gotten stale
Lil Uzi, feels wierd, up to null; townie sounding posts but buddy central
Gamma down to gun to my head town (don't see why scum gamma protects me).
Nos blank
Mozamis needs reassessment, same with Sonia

Alise scummy but not scum with Tywin

Twyin lapsa definitely teamed

[Alisae]

Titus who do you see me being paired scum with?

[Tywin Lannister]

What? This looks wrong. When did I vote Alisae? I need to reread. That looks wrong to me. I'm pretty sure my vote was on Cloud the whole time until Titus.

[Tywin Lannister]

Nvm Alisae was my RVS

[Alisae]

Actually Tywin, I think I calmed down a bit. Remember when you asked me what I'd do if Titus was lynched today on D2? Ez, it's not that simple.