Mini 1849 : DotA Mafia [R2 - SD] Game Over?!!

[Frozen Angel]

Vote Count 3.06

xSoniaNevermindx (2): Creature, Veidth
Creature (1): MathBlade
Leonshade (1): xSoniaNevermindx

Not Voting (3): Nahdia, Lady Lambdadelta, Leonshade

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2016-12-29 18:00:00)

Note : Lady Lambdadelta is V/LA till 20th.

[Creature]

Because I would like to know what do you think.

[Leonshade]

Spoiler: Creature read progression

291 for my first reads list.

Derping on my Creature read:

Was ready to go null-leaning-town on Creature before I saw that post I quoted.

That post was six minutes after I made one post.

Creature's scum.

Even though I said you could be town unaware of that?

I did forget about that in my righteous indignation.

258 is actually like: "Leon, you're posting elsewhere, post something here"

My scumread on you might have been hasty, I just really didn't like that post.

UNVOTE:

Strong TR at this point:

Creature is probably my strongest TR right now.

Take Vedith's scumpool and Creature and you have my townreads, take Vedith's townreads and BRantz and you have my scumpool. Yet I don't think Vedith is scum.

D3, MathBlade comes in:

VOTE: LLD

I hate this vote with a passion. I strongly suspect Creature is scum trying to paint LLD as such. This vote is naked horrible and atrocious. I absolutely do not know why he is not scumread by more of the thread.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8522680

Like the switch to Vaxkiller for example. That is absolutely horrible. "HEY GUYS..I don't want to be on this wagon where I am with all this attention so I'm going to vote over here." Then two posts later says "I don't do preflip associatives." From the first post it says there are 2 mafia on it. So unless Creature believed that was the scum team he is either moving a vote to or from town. In a game with limited mafia like this Creature either wasn't hunting which makes him scum or just wanted an excuse to not be on the LLD wagon. And look at his posts before that. He "likes the wagon but some players give him a bad feeling about it." (Paraphrase) And no one bothered to ask which players gave him pause? No instead everyone goes on their way saying Creature is obviously town. Why? I get the feeling Creature has been saving the LLD mislynch til in MyLo he can try to ride the towncred to victory. And what does he do now? Naked votes LLD and then the sheep come running.

That being said some weird as fuck reaction test(?) happened in our Dire Clan last night. (Yes we glyphed) Like I don't have an idea on how to explain it but either it was a reaction test or LLD outright scumclaimed. Since I know LLD I'm assuming that she wouldn't outright scum claim in the Clan Thread I'm going with this is a town tell and by consequence Vedith is likely town. (I can't explain it without quoting the PT but trust me it's weird.) However if LLD actually did scum claim in the thread then Vedith and Creature might as well duke it out for who is the last scum amongst them because at that point everyone else would be obv town.

Mainly the issue is if LLD is town (as I strongly suspect she is) then who Creature's likely ally would be. I am leaning towards Radical Rat or LeonShade. LeonShade because of the fact that most of his posts are mechanics based and don't seem to have reads too much in them and I am still put off by the first interaction with me being a mechanics one. Most replace ins I've done (and I've done my fair share) usually try to say something stupid like "Oh you're at L-1 and your predecessor scum claimed. Claim now" The fact he didn't ask me a question to sort me perturbs me.

The thing about Radical Rat is that while he was lurking no one did much about it but the Brantz inactive slot did have something done about it. For the life of me though I'm having trouble differentiating why. A lot of the posts in this thread make no sense and it's probably why these last two mislynches happened.

When you have mislynches you don't go and repeat the same damn thing over again. You learn. You adjust. you adapt. You don't repeat the same damn thing over and over and over. That's why I'm thinking the possible scum teams are as follows (in order of likelihood)

Creature/LeonShade
Creature/RadicalRat
LLD/Creature
LLD/Vedith

VOTE: Creature

@MathBlade:

First off, I agree with what you said about town learning and adapting from mislynches, but I think the lesson we've learned is different. On both D1 and D2, there were strong pushes for LLD, but they failed and town was mislynched instead. LLD has been my top scumread for a long time, and two of her counterwagons going through has only strengthened my read on her. I would feel horrible if LLD is scum and wins despite me calling her scum since D1, and my reads won't be able to move on while she's alive.

Sonia, at that point in time, had a point about no one defending LLD on D1. At this point, the Vedith slot was played by lurker Frizzy. When TwiszTed replaced in, he had LLD as a top scumread, put her at L-1, but proceeded to quickhammer a town wagon the first chance he got. This reads, to me, like an aborted bus that switched into an opportunistic counterwagon hammer. I didn't scumread Vedith's play D2, and I got distracted by the night action analysis clusterfuck that lead nowhere, but now that BRantz flipped town I think Vedith is the likeliest buddy for LLD.

I started by asking for explanations on your townread on Sonia because I've had her as the alternative top scumread for LLD since D1. Her chainsaw defense of LLD made me fear that she knows LLD will flip town, her wanting the towncred for being against the lynch and setting up the next day's mislynch by scumreading people on the wagon. I would've gone after her if I didn't have an independent, stronger SR on LLD. My plan since D1 was "lynch LLD, go after Sonia if LLD flips town". This remained my plan, since the LLD wagon has been derailed twice now.

Your interactions with Sonia do give me pause about the Sonia read. It's been stagnant since D1, and I do see what you're saying about the derp town thing (personal insult not meant Sonia, it's a playstyle thing). I'll have to update my read on her.

There's a lot more I could say, but I think your reads have given a fresh new perspective that we needed, and I'm not in such a hurry to lynch LLD anymore. Updating my reads should take priority, and I see your point about there being less chance to do so during LYLO.

UNVOTE:

I've had my Creature and RR TRs since D1 too, a lot of my reads didn't develop during D2.

Creature, RR, Sick all largely had the same reads as me, it's unlikely that all town would be on one side and all scum on the other. Chances are there's one scum in my townreads.

Creature, I don't like your response to pressure

I think Sonia's aiming to mislynch me. Maybe she expects us to lynch LLD right after me and Sonia.

I don't think this is a reasonable conclusion to draw.

What did you intend to say in the second sentence?

Okay, I'll vote myself if everybody is in approval with LLD/Sonia team.

I'm not, nor am I scumreading Sonia.

Your attempt to prove that someone didn't send the nightkill is almost meaningless, since scum can send the NK and do another action in the same night. I think only Vedith is confirmed to not have been able to send the kill.

You're certainly confident, but your ability to get everyone to come around to your reads only comforts me if you're town, and if you're right. I'm not certain of either of those.

P-edit: @Math.

What aren't you certain on? Let's start there.

Your alignment is the first part. I'm leaning town on your slot, but at this point I don't feel I can be 100% on anyone before we get a red flip.

For your reads, the problem is that while I'm coming around to a Creature lynch, if he flips town I don't share your confidence that an LLD-Vedith team is confirmed. Your confidence is based on information that I don't have access to, and which I can't evaluate since you aren't revealing it. If we're not lynching Creature, I want LLD, but I don't consider it impossible that scum is outside of those two.

Short story is that I had him as a strong TR until D3, when MathBlade came in, then got paranoid about the read. I didn't like his reaction to pressure today. The worry in the back of my mind is the scenario where neither Creature nor LLD is scum, as those are the two I want today. I really want to sort Math's slot, as if Math is town, I think at least one of Creature and LLD has to be scum.

[Creature]

At least I believe the one scum in {LLD, me} theory, though I don't know how we got to it.

[Nahdia]

I find it odd, Creature, that you would announce to me your townread on a slot and then follow it up with me to respond to a loaded question about the same slot.
I find it odd that after all the attention on LLD and all the interaction you've had with the slot, you're now stating she's scum by process of elimination.
I find it odd that you would conveniently forget who is in your clan and then pull a random reaction test on them with zero follow up (I frequently fake ditzy behaviors like this as scum).

[Creature]

You replaced RR, right? I am asking about Math's slot.

[Creature]

Nvm.

Though, asking for opinions isn't loaded.

[Nahdia]

What's your opinion on MathBlade pushing hard for both Vedith and my lynch but not seeing us as a scumteam?

This is a loaded question.

[Creature]

I do questions like this in every game yet I don't remember anyone saying it's loaded.

[Creature]

I find it odd that after all the attention on LLD and all the interaction you've had with the slot, you're now stating she's scum by process of elimination.

Not just by PoE, Sonia and LLD are scummy while everybody else is towny.

I find it odd that you would conveniently forget who is in your clan and then pull a random reaction test on them with zero follow up (I frequently fake ditzy behaviors like this as scum).

Where?

[Nahdia]

In the radiant PT, I'm obviously not able to quote it.

[Nahdia]

I do questions like this in every game yet I don't remember anyone saying it's loaded.

It's literally by definition a loaded question. You loaded the question. You could have left it as "What's your opinion on MathBlade pushing hard for both Vedith and my lynch?" But you added "but not seeing us as a scumteam?"

That's the definition of a loaded question.

[Creature]

In the radiant PT, I'm obviously not able to quote it.

I don't remember doing any reaction test there.

[Creature]

I don't remember where, but I think Math said I didn't look teamed with Vedith.

[Nahdia]

So, Mathblade shakes up the game as of 1481. At that point votes were being stacked on LLD. If the Math slot is scum, they could have coasted and allowed LLD to be lynched but instead they made a major case and broke the status quo. I'd say from this alone that the Math slot is either town or LLD's partner.

[Nahdia]

Vote Count 3.06

xSoniaNevermindx (2): Creature, Veidth

At least I believe the one scum in {LLD, me} theory

[Creature]

Do I have to re-quote all my posts I've been saying the scumteam are Sonia and LLD?

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Hey Nat do you think Creature is scum like I do?
Cause if you do we can vote and hammer him rn
I have a double vote but it's only on my next vote so I'm hammer sitting.

[Creature]

But hey Nahdia, if it turns out I'm town, it can only mean Sonia and LLD are scum, because everybody else looks town.

[Creature]

Also, I don't want Leonshade to be the next mislynch, he's pretty obvtown and we shouldn't allow scum lynch another obvtown.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

Good thing you're not obv town.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

I'll be 100% clear tomorrow btw

[xSoniaNevermindx]

If we don't lynch scum that is.

[Leonshade]

I'll be 100% clear tomorrow btw

???

[Creature]

For everyone
How tough are you all? After I am lynched, Sonia and LLD are going to act all whiny and full aggressive as the only need one mislynch to win and they're in danger of losing. So you'll have to vote them off and not get swayed by their flailing.