Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Titus]

Votecount 1.10

Lapsa 7 (Pine, CloudKicker, Alisae, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko)
Titus 4 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister, Syryana)
Alisae 1 (Aj The Epic)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Lapsa)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)

Not Voting 3 (Cabd, xSoniaNevermindx, Elbirn)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is December 30 at 11 AM Eastern.

While the mod at least exists now, he will nonetheless be kinda-on-vacation for the next week.

Here is my hangup with Lapsa being scum... Namely a few SRS on the wagon. If Lapsa does flip scum, I can't see them all bussing here. It wouldn't make sense. AJ/Nosferatu/Sonia/Elbirn will need closer looks regardless. I get bigger scum vibes from Nosferatu/AJ than I do Elibirn/Sonia though.

So why hasn't anyone questioned Nosferatu on that Cloud vote? That just looks bad. AJ on Alisae over ever mentioning Uzi looks bad IMO. I'd assume they'd both be scummy in AJ's mind considering they both have done the same things (albeit to lesser degrees). I honestly like everyone on the Titus wagon, but that's not going to go through today. Sonia had kinda disappeared, so I don't know where to lean with her.

The real problem I have is that the Lapsa wagon contains enough SRs that it gives me pause, but nothing Lapsa has done objectively makes me think 'town' whatsoever. So it's my own bias due to SRs that make me uneasy about him more than anything else. If Lapsa is scum, then they can't all be scum with him. That's too many votes for a proper bus.

Waaaahhh town is uniting so we cannot afford a bus.

[Titus]

no stahp
tywin is town

My door is open to reasons to townread him that are not rage/faked towntells. I have asked repeatedly, got crickets.

[Tywin Lannister]

Speed of a wagon has never been AI of the wagonee. Mozamis might as well be saying Titus is on it, so I will not bus.

Also, not found of doing dual scum wagon nonsense. If both wagons are on scum, it fractures town and makes scum harder to lynch. If one is on town, it makes the one that's on scum harder to go through.

Pretty sure the way Tywin jumped onto this that it is just lurkerbait to save Lapsa.

Oh look, more shade throwing, with a bit of WIFOM for good measure.

I can do this too!

Pretty sure the way Titus hopes to derail the Nosferatu wagon without even looking into it at all is just scum hoping to avoid a buddy lynch.

[Cabd]

Titus, it's now time to talk about that THING that I brought up waaaay back near the start of the game.

[Titus]

Titus, it's now time to talk about that THING that I brought up waaaay back near the start of the game.

Awesome. Let's do it.

[Gamma Emerald]

no stahp
tywin is town

My door is open to reasons to townread him that are not rage/faked towntells. I have asked repeatedly, got crickets.

He finally simmered down when I was talking with him. I'd think scum would remain indignant.

[Cabd]

Apparently getting traction on Gamma isn't possible right now. He's got the flimsiest shit steps in and step outs in the game.

{Pine, Mozamis, Alisae} <--line of "not touching today without a damn good reason"

{Lapsa, SSBM}

{Elbirn, Tywin}
{Titus}
{everyone else} <--Line of Neutrality
{Uzi}
{AJ}
{Gamma} <--Line of "voting for without hesitation"

Bolded was me mistakenly thinking I saw lapsa counterclaiming my masons joke. It's why I haven't been willing to vote Lapsa (and had him hard town) until fairly recently where SSBM endorsed a lapsa wagon.

In fact my personal notes as of that page read:

spec: there are real masons and they're ssbm and larpsa

Obviously that's NOT the case but I was so damn worried I'd blown it but ecited I'd seen it.

[Titus]

no stahp
tywin is town

My door is open to reasons to townread him that are not rage/faked towntells. I have asked repeatedly, got crickets.

He finally simmered down when I was talking with him. I'd think scum would remain indignant.

Nah, he's calmed down because no one is lynching him.

Please, I said not rage based clear.

[Titus]

Apparently getting traction on Gamma isn't possible right now. He's got the flimsiest shit steps in and step outs in the game.

{Pine, Mozamis, Alisae} <--line of "not touching today without a damn good reason"

{Lapsa, SSBM}

{Elbirn, Tywin}
{Titus}
{everyone else} <--Line of Neutrality
{Uzi}
{AJ}
{Gamma} <--Line of "voting for without hesitation"

Bolded was me mistakenly thinking I saw lapsa counterclaiming my masons joke. It's why I haven't been willing to vote Lapsa (and had him hard town) until fairly recently where SSBM endorsed a lapsa wagon.

In fact my personal notes as of that page read:

spec: there are real masons and they're ssbm and larpsa

Obviously that's NOT the case but I was so damn worried I'd blown it but ecited I'd seen it.

If they were counterclaiming you but playing it under wraps, I would expect a lot more anger at you being declared obvtown and not throwing mud at me for stating that scum are usually the ones that object to masonries.

[Gamma Emerald]

Attempt 2

Votecount 1.3

Elbirn

6 (

Lil Uzi Vert

,

xSoniaNevermindx,

Aj The Epic

, ssbm_Kyouko

,

Transcend

,

CloudKicker

)

Lapsa

5 (

Pine

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

,

Alisae

,

Elbirn

)

Alisae

3 (Nosferatu,

Lapsa

,

Tywin Lannister

)

Gamma Emerald

1 (

Cabd

)

Not Voting 2 (

Nero Cain

, mozamis

)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

This makes more sense than before.

From the analysis here, if my team guess is right (Sonia, Lapsa, Ali, ssbm), then we see
Two scum bussing each other
The other 2 scum on a town counterwagon
Which is behavior I don't find too abnormal. Lapsa replaced Tywin partailly because my VCA made more sense with that grouping.

[Titus]

Attempt 2

Votecount 1.3

Elbirn

6 (

Lil Uzi Vert

,

xSoniaNevermindx,

Aj The Epic

, ssbm_Kyouko

,

Transcend

,

CloudKicker

)

Lapsa

5 (

Pine

,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

,

Alisae

,

Elbirn

)

Alisae

3 (Nosferatu,

Lapsa

,

Tywin Lannister

)

Gamma Emerald

1 (

Cabd

)

Not Voting 2 (

Nero Cain

, mozamis

)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

This makes more sense than before.

From the analysis here, if my team guess is right (Sonia, Lapsa, Ali, ssbm), then we see
Two scum bussing each other
The other 2 scum on a town counterwagon
Which is behavior I don't find too abnormal. Lapsa replaced Tywin partailly because my VCA made more sense with that grouping.

This isn't VCA but theorycrafting. True VCA requires flips and determining motivations.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

VOTE: Nos
Baaaaa

[Titus]

Yeah, this isn't S v S wagon behavior most likely.

[Cabd]

And in your take which is the S if it's TvS?

[Tywin Lannister]

@Titus: do you TR Nosferatu? If yes, why? If no, then why are you against the wagon?

[Elbirn]

Speed of a wagon has never been AI of the wagonee. Mozamis might as well be saying Titus is on it, so I will not bus.

Also, not found of doing dual scum wagon nonsense. If both wagons are on scum, it fractures town and makes scum harder to lynch. If one is on town, it makes the one that's on scum harder to go through.

Pretty sure the way Tywin jumped onto this that it is just lurkerbait to save Lapsa.

Yeup, we're flipping nos today. Come along everyone, it's time.

[Tywin Lannister]

no stahp
tywin is town

My door is open to reasons to townread him that are not rage/faked towntells. I have asked repeatedly, got crickets.

He finally simmered down when I was talking with him. I'd think scum would remain indignant.

I'm still indignant to be fair, but in the off-chance she is town, I don't want to keep derailing everything based on my extreme bias. You shouldn't waste time trying to convince Titus of anything with me. It won't happen. She will be convinced I'm scum until I flip no matter what happens IMO. I still think she's scum, but maybe I'll be proven wrong. I at least recognize my judgement on her is clouded, so that's why I'm ignoring her slot. I'll let others do the sorting there. Regardless of her being scum IMO, there are others out there, and the feud between her and I largely detailed the thread and made me emo af. Not a good look, so I'm not going near it. I know I'm town, so it just largely disqualifies most/all of her opinions, because she's pushing hard on a town slot without acknowledging even the slimmest chance of me flipping town. That's hardcore conf bias, so I can't take her reads seriously RN. If she manages to find actual scum, then maybe I'll overlook her hard D1 misread of me and listen. I just don't expect her to do the same, but you never know. Sometimes town wins by overcoming petty disputes in search of lynching the greater evil in scum. It could happen if she's town.

[Syryana]

Yeup, we're flipping nos today. Come along everyone, it's time.

[Lapsa]

why he went back on his words

huh?

[Lapsa]

Titus read progression on mozamis is scummy.

[Lapsa]

Pretty simple really. He tried to appear busy, the traitor claim, and his comment about the game stalling.

Scum or stupid beyond beyond belief.

2nd place is great. You tried, Kyouko.

[Alisae]

VOTE: Nosferatu

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Titus I'm asking you again, who is your strongest TR? One name please

[Lapsa]

The scientifical, mystical one.

[Alisae]

Elbrin whats your day 2 plan if you don't mind me asking?