Newbie 1758 - Symmetry (Game Over)

[Hellfire Missile]

i work much better with AtE's than well whatever you guys did/are doing

[HowardRoark]

@Sobolev Space: Rereading my response, I see I wasn't clear. Your response was well formed and didn't help with my read. It might have been more effective to switch my vote and see a response, but I didn't want to. End result, my fail. As I said, I have mostly a null read on you and that makes me nervous. However my L-1 analysis has me feeling more confident that you are town and we can win this game.

@Hellfire Missile: Why the scum read on

Joshz

ThinkBig? How does AtE differ from "read people based on what they state and then what they do"?

VOTE: ThinkBig

With the holiday weekend, I am more available today and tomorrow but less so on Sunday which I believe is deadline. I'll post more thoughts later but don't want to go down to the wire.

[Hellfire Missile]

@Sobolev Space: Rereading my response, I see I wasn't clear. Your response was well formed and didn't help with my read. It might have been more effective to switch my vote and see a response, but I didn't want to. End result, my fail. As I said, I have mostly a null read on you and that makes me nervous. However my L-1 analysis has me feeling more confident that you are town and we can win this game.

@Hellfire Missile: Why the scum read on

Joshz

ThinkBig? How does AtE differ from "read people based on what they state and then what they do"?

VOTE: ThinkBig

With the holiday weekend, I am more available today and tomorrow but less so on Sunday which I believe is deadline. I'll post more thoughts later but don't want to go down to the wire.

When they get mad, they make more mistakes.
More mistakes equals more constrictions.

tada

[ThinkBig]

I got very busy last night so I do apologize.

@Howard, what is your case against me/my slot?

For those on my wagon, when I flip town, what information will that give to you?

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 3.5

In case of emergency, good luck.

ThinkBig (2)

: Hellfire Missile, HowardRoark

HowardRoark (1)

: Huntress

Not Voting

: Sobolev Space, ThinkBig

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-12-26 15:48:15)

[Sobolev Space]

When they get mad, they make more mistakes.
More mistakes equals more constrictions.

tada

Scum can still contradict themselves even when they aren't mad, however, because unlike the rest of us they have a specific agenda they're pushing in the game. Do you still have a scum leaning read on ThinkBig, HM?

For those on my wagon, when I flip town, what information will that give to you?

If you flip town I'll definitely be a little more suspect of Howard. If lylo is me Howard HM I'm pretty undecided still on how I'll vote.

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

For now:
VOTE: Hellfire Missile

[ThinkBig]

Between HM and Howard, I'd much prefer HM, though I'm fine with either. HM has been anti-town most of the game and is lynchbait. I'd rather him be lynched now and flip town than lynch him at LyLo and have him flip town.

[Huntress]

@Huntress: Regarding 889, it reads of hedging bets; reading both posts from your point of view, I could have easily had a similar reaction to both. I often repost questions, from myself and others, which I feel are important. It was my question as well when I was reading through, but you asked it first. The "narrowing down of the list" was a garbage answer; while I agree that it makes sense, it's still garbage. If you weren't confirmed I would be after you for that acceptance. Your pebbles and ripples phrasing is causing me to reread differently.

Your earlier mention of 889 puzzled me because you seemed to be implying that I'd already commented on it when I hadn't. And no, I didn't have a similar reaction to both.

I didn't accept TB's reply. There was an "if" in that sentence. And as I said there, I was expecting more.

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

I'm not seeing why you think HM is more likely to be scum than either of the other two? You keep saying he's the best lynch but as far as I can see from your ISO it's just because of night one. Is that right?

Between HM and Howard, I'd much prefer HM, though I'm fine with either. HM has been anti-town most of the game and is lynchbait. I'd rather him be lynched now and flip town than lynch him at LyLo and have him flip town.

Why? What changed between 888 and 906?

[Sobolev Space]

@Huntress, Howard, ThinkBig: Is there still not much support among y'all for an HM lynch today? I still think that would be by far the best lynch but if we're nearing the deadline and nobody else is on board I think I'll have to go with hammering ThinkBig.

I'm not seeing why you think HM is more likely to be scum than either of the other two? You keep saying he's the best lynch but as far as I can see from your ISO it's just because of night one. Is that right?

That's the main reason - I just can't see Howard or Joshz passing on a Locust kill n1 (maybe Joshz a little considering how hard he was going after HM at the beginning of d2 but we'll see).

There are a couple other reasons I think I've mentioned before however:
1. Posts 873, 875, 877 from HM read like he's trying to distance himself from the Sequencer lynch and are a bit suspicious. I think he sees being on a townie lynch as scummy and wants to get towncred from these posts.
2. HM is much harder to read than Howard and ThinkBig. I disagree with most of the arguments he's provided but can't decipher if its because he's pushing an agenda or just newbishness. This gives a benefit even if he flips town. I think if lylo is me Howard ThinkBig then by putting pressure on Howard/ThinkBig (like we've seen the past couple of pages) and going through their ISOs will give me enough info to get a good guess of who is scum. If lylo is me, HM, someone else I'm not sure if I could do better than 50/50 however.

[HowardRoark]

@ThinkBig: Joshz was irrational, emotional, and contradictory. His story of trusting

DayahaangRai

claim, misdirection intent, and theories were a lot of WIFOM. Rereading his Jackel98 vote versus his D1 interactions have some partner indications. If any of us flipped town "what information will that give to you?"

@Sobolev Space: I wanted a Hellfire Missile PL yesterday. I'm not against it, but I feel more strongly that ThinkBig is in the other scum slot.

@Huntress: I asked about 889 because I wanted your thoughts and apparently didn't proof it properly. Can you please boil down you reason to vote me over ThinkBig?

My previously mention dual L-1 thoughts . . .
Sobolev Space could have lynched either myself or ThinkBig and gone into LyLo with either one of us looking to lynch Hellfire Missile. Her lack of hammer is either very cautious scum or town, I believe the latter.

Hellfire Missile was absent but I wouldn't expect action out of him anyway.

ThinkBig had two options, Hellfire Missile and me; I'm ruling out Sobolev Space because of town reads on her. There was no traction with Hellfire Missile, despite both Sobolev Space and I considering a lynch there and switched to me once Huntress gave him the opportunity. Scum.

[Huntress]

@ SS: Thanks for the reply. I can see where you're coming from there, but I think I'd still rather see Howard or TB lynched today.

@Huntress: I asked about 889 because I wanted your thoughts and apparently didn't proof it properly. Can you please boil down you reason to vote me over ThinkBig?

I've already explained my vote. It was part gut and part exploratory.

Unvote

(pending TB's comments)

[Sobolev Space]

Alright y'all since we're approaching the deadline I'll hammer ThinkBig tomorrow night unless we have a Christmas miracle and y'all come together on an HM lynch. I'm going skiing Monday so I won't be active then which means tomorrow night will be my last chance to contribute before the deadline. I realize everyone is busy but if we could all post some last thoughts that would be helpful. Since for some reason everyone is town reading me I figure I might also be targeted for a NK aside from Huntress so I'll try to give my final reads tomorrow in case I don't survive the night.

Have a happy holidays everyone!

[ThinkBig]

I will be home around 1030-11 EST tonight. Before you hammer, please allow me to make my final case as well as respond to huntress.

[Sobolev Space]

VOTE: ThinkBig

Sorry ThinkBig, I just got home and am about to go to bed. Since I won't be on again before the deadline I wanted to get my vote in now. I realize you probably forgot to post or went to bed early, but I hope that you'll be able to post your final thoughts (if you're town) during the twilight period.

Anyways, if ThinkBig flips town I'm thinking HM is tbh our only good lynch tomorrow. I think the n1 evidence is overwhelmingly against him. Howard, aside from a couple recent concerns which weren't a big deal, has been playing pretty townie the whole game IMO.

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 3.6

In case of emergency, good luck.

ThinkBig (3)

: Hellfire Missile, HowardRoark, Sobolev Space

Not Voting

: ThinkBig, Huntress

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-12-26 15:48:15)

[Xalxe]

ThinkBig,

Vanilla Townie

, Lynched Day 3

Night 3 begins now and will last for 72 hours, or (expired on 2016-12-29 08:55:44).

[Xalxe]

Huntress,

Vanilla Townie

, Killed Night 3

Day 4 begins now and will last for 14 days, or (expired on 2017-01-12 08:38:23)

[HowardRoark]

LyLo . . .

I was very confident about my Joshz / ThinkBig read, and now I must reevaluate my others.

[Sobolev Space]

Sorry about the early hammer. I wanted everyone to be able to get their last thoughts in but I also couldn't come back before the deadline and wanted to make sure we had a lynch yesterday. Everyone being away for the holiday right around deadline was unfortunate.

Anyway I'm still fairly confident in HM scum but want to have some time to read through everyone's ISOs to be sure. Will update y'all tomorrow hopefully.

[Sobolev Space]

Looked through Howard and Hellfire's ISOs. I think Howard tunneling Joshz/ThinkBig all game is still a little weird but understandable and he gave good reasons for his suspicion. The reasons for voting Hellfire I outlined in post 908 I think still hold.

@Howard: Any update on your revised reads?

@Hellfire: I know you're V/LA but when you get back in the next few days can you give your opinion on the events recently?

[HowardRoark]

@Sobolev Space: There are little things that give me reason to question yournalignment, much like your concerns expressed earlier about me and Joshz (on phone so being lazy aboug finding and referencing post) with the N1 kill that I feel also apply to you. The little bit of recent, increased-content posts by Hellfire Missile are concerning but also minor. Need to see what, if anything, Hellfire Missile has to say.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, the n1 kill argument was that the only reason to not kill Locust n1 was either not knowing Locust claimed cop (indicating HM) or not being worried about being investigated. I think that considering Locust/most others were scumreading me pretty hard at the end of d1 I was definitely a candidate for an investigation, which is why I think the argument applies more to you/Joshz than myself. I guess you could say I was going for a gambit there but the benefit/risk ratio seems pretty skewed. Are there any other reasons you have to question my alignment, or worries you have about my activity? Additionally, why do you think HM's new increased-content posts are concerning?

Since HM ended his V/LA yesterday how long do we have to wait before he gets prodded?

[Hellfire Missile]

space why did you hammer think again?

wait i think i was v/la at the time

why couldn't we have gone for a no lynch?

[Hellfire Missile]

@The little bit of recent, increased-content posts by Hellfire Missile are concerning but also minor.

Need to see what, if anything

, Hellfire Missile has to say.

[Hellfire Missile]

@Sobolev Space: There are little things that give me reason to question yournalignment, much like your concerns expressed earlier about me and Joshz (on phone so being lazy aboug finding and referencing post) with the N1 kill that I feel also apply to you. The little bit of recent, increased-content posts by Hellfire Missile are concerning but also minor. Need to see what, if anything, Hellfire Missile has to say.

Why are more "increased-content"(I don't see anything) concerning?