Micro 672: Vanillish Mafia (Game Over!)

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

VOTE: ThinkTank

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

UNVOTE:

fucking hate this

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

wait, why do you sign off your message with Pine,, pine is another player on this site,, ?? i'm confused,

Pine and Kain can't be attached

Kain would have been told this in the daychat as he would have been confused in there

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

VOTE: Kain

[karnos]

wait, why do you sign off your message with Pine,, pine is another player on this site,, ?? i'm confused,

Pine and Kain can't be attached

Kain would have been told this in the daychat as he would have been confused in there

You don't think scum can fake townslip?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Not kain

[karnos]

Wait I am so confused, why are you voting for kain if you think he is town?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

It's not a town slip, it's a definitive post showing they can't be a team together, so it's either or.

[karnos]

Why not just vote me if you think I am scum?

[karnos]

You are going down the wrong path. I know I am town, that means think tank and hiraki can't be both town. There is a flaw in your logic.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Prove it, I don't care for someone saying "I know I'm town" I seriously doesn't help me because none of you are confirmed to me.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

You've called Kain town a lot, but why is that?

[karnos]

I think there is a fair chance kain is scum, maybe 40%, so this isn't the worst possible result, but please unvote and think things through a bit more. If you are wrong and the scum come online, they will hammer and win.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I have a macro running that's refreshing a small window every 30 seconds to see if a new post is made while I'm at work. Don't worry

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

So are you saying Hiraki and ThinkTank are the final two scum?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

UNVOTE:

I do want to hear your case on those two

[karnos]

So are you saying Hiraki and ThinkTank are the final two scum?

I think it's think tank and either hirako or kain, slight lean on hiraki. I would rather go for the sure thing (think tank) - that said, even then I'd rather wait and see reads from everyone.

[karnos]

That isn't the case. Give me some time.

[karnos]

I've played a number of times with Hiraki, and this whole bitter/snarky thing he has going on reminds me of his Towngame. You don't have to trust that, I certainly don't. It's a weak and early read. Christ, it's only page 5. I'm not *certain* of anything yet. The Hiraki read is a general impression, which is about one step more reliable than saying my Magic 8-ball says so.

Pine

Think Tank & Hiraki both scum. Think Tank is town reading Hiraka, but has to carefully choose words so he has a good out if Hiraki gets lynched- "You don't have to trust that, I certainly don't. It's a weak and early read." Yet it's enough for him to remove Hiraki from his "possible scum" lists. This feels to me like exactly what scum do to support a partner without committing too hard.

VOTE: TierShift

That was a very awful attempt at a QH and opportunistic.

-Think

UNVOTE: to prevent scum hammer.

P-edit: Spade is conf!scum

The timing is just too perfect. It also screams as a manufactured slip to me. He got the ninja post notification, thus his p-edit, but he left the unvote in there just to make himself look towny.

Think about: without spades quick hammer, why is Think Tank posting at all? What changed his read from 117 just moments earlier? Then he immediately insist spade is scum, before the flip.

That leaves

1) Karnos, Kain, Spade
2) Karnos, Kain, Hiraki
3) Karnos, Spade, Hiraki
4) Kain, Spade, Hiraki

Karnos - 4x
Spade - 3x
Hiraki -3x
Kain - 3x

Based upon this, there are 4 ways in which karnos is scum, 3 ways in which the others are scum.

I'm not sure WTF he is talking about here. This just seems like nonsense. Drunk post maybe?

[Hiraki]

There are 3 town alive. Aelin, me, and one other.

This almost comprehensively flips my townread on you. Not even everything else in your post, just this. It feels very very fake.

I have looked at Karnos through a more objective lens and I do not see him being scum. He is objectively scummy but not for the right reasons for being scum. I can get into this if you would like.

Yes please

This is going to get a bit comprehensive - which is what I need and you want as well.

I'm not very confident in this anymore (Karnos scumread) but I believe that our conversations have been town v town (again, I'm not sure anymore). Also in recollection, these points didn't stand out to me more but they get rid of that feeling.

Nothing but walls. Can't have a real conversation that way. Fake way to look towny at this point in the game.

Okay, I think I got you. You are saying he was going for a miss lynch, expecting to get lynched the following day, which would give him the vengekill. Okay.


No, that is terrible logic.

When I first read it (i.e. first vote/scumread), I felt that these are scummy. On second read (i.e. TR), I thought this could be his posting. On third reading (keeping Page 12 into account), these are not town moves.

You are going down the wrong path. I know I am town, that means think tank and hiraki can't be both town. There is a flaw in your logic.

This post is the deciding factor for me. It's a complete 180 from his previous tone from D2 and D3. That usually constitutes scum. There's a difference between explaining a case and changing tone. This is the latter.

Hiraki, you said you think Kain is town but also said it was impossible for all 3 scum to be on Tier's wagon

You're going to need to expand your question.

Kain also isn't on this wagon. On that theory, Kain would be the most suitable out of the people off the wagon to be scum. In fact, keep in mind that Spade

hard

defended Kain on D1 when the PL was in its early stages. Its my belief now that it was used more as a discipline tool (might be the wrong word but hopefully you get the idea) based on how everyone dropped it (another thing that helps my TT TR):

1. Kain is playing markedly different from his other games which tbh is not a good sign. He is giving more input and less random posts which is not his usual style
2. Look how quickly TT and Kain mounted pressure on each other and then equally quickly removed it. Seems to have worked since Tonic has town read both of them.
3. In post 63, Kain says he thought it was easy to pull of a PL. No it never was and it never will be in a game with just 8 members.
4. All this makes it feel as if the, 'PL' was just a ploy.
5. Hiraki your post seems to contain a lot of fluff as if you are trying to contribute. The only thing I agree with you is about Tonic. If I didn't know Tonic was an IC, my vote would have been on him.

Which means that I'm bumping up my Kain read to 100% scum. I don't think we all scumread Spade because we just felt like it. He was pretty clearly scum based on early postings and didn't even post in D2. I have to also conclude that if you're obvious scum, you're not going to be playing the game at a high level - it'll be easier to see partner interactions. I'm sure about this one.

If you want my comprehensive list of who scum is, it would be:

1) Kain
2) Karnos
3) TT

For ThinkTank, I mainly had that on my prior list because of my prior reads and I didn't go into it. I'm not sure if I mentioned it but I'm never really a fan of hydras due to the fact that sometimes their content can vary. For example, I usually like Pine's content more than ThinkBig's because I can get a solid read out of Pine rather than ThinkBig.

Their posting in D1 is generally not good, as I indicated previously.

However, going on from there, everything is actually helpful rather than sort of not really helpful.

The biggest thing swaying me from the Karnos/TT argument is this from Kain:

but the ANGRINESS is a town angriness at me,, and i think from past expericne SCUM will not attack me first,, they want me to survive a while for some reason.... also,, i am a TOWN,,

This may be the deciding factor between the two based on the flip. Not that it matters either way.

I feel like this post is a bit jambled because it reflects my overall opinion of the game and how actually confident I am in my reads since I've changed them so much. I also went back and edited a little to add in parantheses wherever I felt that a thread was confusing. If you need more clarification, feel free to ask. However, I am 100% confident in Kainscum, especially after the Spade flip.

[karnos]

I've played a number of times with Hiraki, and this whole bitter/snarky thing he has going on reminds me of his Towngame. You don't have to trust that, I certainly don't. It's a weak and early read. Christ, it's only page 5. I'm not *certain* of anything yet. The Hiraki read is a general impression, which is about one step more reliable than saying my Magic 8-ball says so.

Pine

Think Tank & Hiraki both scum. Think Tank is town reading Hiraka, but has to carefully choose words so he has a good out if Hiraki gets lynched- "You don't have to trust that, I certainly don't. It's a weak and early read." Yet it's enough for him to remove Hiraki from his "possible scum" lists. This feels to me like exactly what scum do to support a partner without committing too hard.

Please note: the above is a potential read of the post. I'm not set on the idea of a Think Tank/Hiraki scum team, I think it could also be Kain & Think Tank, in which case the early "policy lynch" was just a tactic to create some distancing and get the game going in scum's favor.

[Hiraki]

I'm not sure WTF he is talking about here. This just seems like nonsense. Drunk post maybe?

That's the kicker. This case is fabricated. I'm 100% sure the scumteam is Karnos and Kain.

[karnos]

1) There is definitely not enough content to end the day today. Aelin - mind giving something more comprehensive?
2) I have some problems with the quickness of the wagon that I want to examine. I think that Spade's actions constitute him as scum but it would be stupid to not look at the game overall to see if he's being ployed.

I do have to also admit that since no one has quickhammered (and this is something I probably shouldn't say until later for that reason but whatever) that either:

1) Spade is scum
2) Everyone on the wagon is scum

So we have that going for us at least.

This to me is an incredibly scummy post. I think Hiraki still thought there was a hair's chance of saving spade and lynching town at that point.

[karnos]

With that - I'm willing to get rid of precondition 2 for hammering. Not very reasonable for the entire scumteam to be on this wagon, especially since I do think Kain is town.

do you still think Kain is town? Are you okay with lynching think tank?

[Hiraki]

You are literally going to each post, hitting something that sounds good, and then just posting it. I can refute every point that you made above with another post that comes right after - I will do this but I need to make something very clear.

You are creating a scumread on me rather than looking at my posts comprehensively and creating a scumread on me. One is town, the other is scum.

Calling my post scummy isn't helping

anyone

.