Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[BlackVoid]

Hi, I'm back. I want to take this slow. If we're wrong here, I'd hate to get in a 3-way where one of you have to make the final call. I'm going to continue with my re-read tomorrow and I definitely want to wait for Dun to return so we can comb through all options before we lynch. We've got time so no need to rush. Just want to make sure we end the game this game day.

[Creature]

Jaack and Something_Smart were prodded.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry sorry!
Been working this week, should be able to do stuff this weekend.

[Jaack]

I really have nothing to add at this point. I'm pretty sure the last scum is Dunhallym. In the unlikely even it isn't.... eh probably BV based on the Tenshii stuff from before. I don't see SSmart flipping scum.

[Ms Columbo]

Pretty much this ^^^^.

I believe Dun said she'd be back tomorrow or Saturday.

[BlackVoid]

Continuing with my review. This is until the point ssbm_kyouko and Smart replaced in. ArcAngel9 is pretty much a blank for me so I'm probably going to rely on Smart to read that slot once I get there.

Game Review D1: Pages 5-8

108 is a decent point from Dunhallym. What bothers me is that it seems opportunistic to hop onto the wagon as Jaack was pushing it and Tenshii hopped on.

119 - This post by Prohawk could go either way. He puts both Dunhallym and AA9 in the lean town group and so doesn't have to push either of them. The rest of it is obvious. He was buddying Jaack to push an SAJ lynch through but that isn't helpful.

I'm not sure how people came to the conclusion that Tenshii/Prohawk were the team. It could be my bias but the entirety of page six is Prohawk trying to convince Tenshii that SAJ was scum and Tenshii cutting through his read although conceding that SAJ's post could have been ATE. I guess it could look like two scum "disagreeing" in order to distance. I'll try and keep this in mind when looking at people's reasoning for linking my slot and Prohawk. Tenshii's reasoning for suspecting Prohawk was actually spot-on.

156 - Weak point but this looks like scum calling their buddy out asking them to do more.

163 - Here's another post I'm ambivalent about. I could see why Dun would think SAJ was scum for backtracking on his read of Jaack by unvoting. This post and the continued questioning of SAJ in 165 looks a lot like what I would do as scum though. In fact, my primary reason for suspecting Dun was that she reminded me of my scumgame and at a lot of points, she approached the game exactly as I have done as scum in the past even in my newbie scum game on this site. If I were scum in her place, I'd notice that Jaack was a vocal town voice and would probably get SAJ lynched so would be "questioning" SAJ, calling him out on his inconsistencies and backtracks and slide onto the wagon as the deadline approaches. That's exactly how Dun approached this game. She seems thorough enough to pick up on minor details and competent enough to analyze the game in-depth. I just wonder how it never occurred to her that SAJ could just be a town player that's new to mafia. It's even more concerning that she didn't back off of ssbm_kyouko because he towntold a whole lot more. I'm going to get to that later. This is also a note to read through Dun's completed newbie game as town to see if she picked up on things that were non-obvious at first glance. Should read Smart's games as well.

There's also the fact that Dun is subtly parroting Jaack which is another behavior that I can't help myself with when I'm scum and a vocal townie is pushing a mislynch. It's not so much a blatant "I agree with Jaack" which would be null but rephrasing Jaack's arguments in her own words. Take for example Jaack's 173 where he asks SAJ if anything he does is alignment indicative. Around three hours later, Dun makes 174 asking SAJ what he considers indicative of alignment which is such an empty question and just piggybacks off of Jaack's push. Didn't like the Prohawk townread either. Looked like an easy way to slot a partner as town.

185 - These are all good, factual points from Dun but they also feel really mechanical and surface-level. I think I would have been bothered that SAJ said he never townread Jaack. I think Prohawk's ATE point is terrible but I guess I could see it from someone who doesn't read tone very well. I had the same impression when Dun grilled Tenshii on why he thought SAJ repeating that he was town was townish. Her last point on SAJ scumreading people who are voting him is weirdly phrased. I don't disagree that it's a good point but she said "

If he was a newb, I'd think that he may be biased as I have made the same mistake of trusting people who defended me and distrusting people who accused me but here it makes me seriously doubt the reality of those reads.

" But he is a newb. He joined a month ago. He was indeed biased and made the same mistake Dun claims to have made. So, why exactly is she doubting the reality of those reads even while acknowledging that they could come from town? The way he justified his reads in 186 tells me he is looking at the game from a very newbie-ish mentality that scum wouldn't defend town.

I also don't quite understand why Dun keeps repeating that SAJ "hasn't done any scumhunting" and telling him to "stop saying that he's town and do something to prove it." How the hell do you do something to prove that you are town? He's a new player, getting grilled on his play, he's explaining himself but digging himself a bit deeper. It looks a lot like empty posturing. On that note, SAJ's 197 seemed really genuine although I doubt Dun was being evil enough to try and rile him up. It just seemed like she was using his inconsistencies as an excuse for looking like she's scumhunting and making a push she thinks is believable.

Dun's read on Prohawk isn't all that damning though. Tenshii and ZZZX both seemed to think that Prohawk's emotions and aggression looked town. So, this was mostly about Dun. I'm going to come back later and continue. Will have to see how the game changes upon ssbm_kyouko's and Smart's replace in.

[callforjudgement]

Votecount 3.3

Votecount 3.3

[0] Jaack
[0] Something_Smart
[0] Ms Columbo
[0] BlackVoid
[1] Dunhallym - Jaack

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Something_Smart, Ms Columbo, BlackVoid, Dunhallym

5 players are alive and 3 votes are needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-01-09 19:00:00)

[Ms Columbo]

Continuing with my review. This is until the point ssbm_kyouko and Smart replaced in. ArcAngel9 is pretty much a blank for me so I'm probably going to rely on Smart to read that slot once I get there.

<snip>

I also don't quite understand why Dun keeps repeating that SAJ "hasn't done any scumhunting" and telling him to "stop saying that he's town and do something to prove it." How the hell do you do something to prove that you are town? He's a new player, getting grilled on his play, he's explaining himself but digging himself a bit deeper. It looks a lot like empty posturing.

On that note, SAJ's 197 seemed really genuine although I doubt Dun was being evil enough to try and rile him up.

It just seemed like she was using his inconsistencies as an excuse for looking like she's scumhunting and making a push she thinks is believable.

Post #197 belongs to ZZZX. Should this be #194?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, that was 194.

[BlackVoid]

Game Review D1: Pages 9-13 (till end of D1)

210 - Smart enters the game pushing a Tenshii-Prohawk scumteam with SAJ as scum if Prohawk isn't. I think it makes sense if he's scumreading Tenshii since my slot could only be scum with Prohawk, SAJ, or Gamma. Smart seems very sure that Gamma is town and there was no reason to think Prohawk was bussing SAJ. So, I get the Gamma townread. I get the Jaack townread. I can understand ZZZX and Dun floating around in the null pile but since they can't be scum with Tenshii, I could see a town-Smart plausibly not zoning in on them initially. I think the big question is why you were scumreading Tenshii. I want to see if there is a good backing behind this read because I glanced through Tenshii's posts before I replaced in and was fairly convinced he was town. Let's go over Tenshii's twenty posts until you replaced in:

• 10 - He advocates scumhunting first and revealing picks later on. Since you suspected Dun for similar reasoning, you were at least consistent.
  
• 11 - Non serious RVS fluff.
  
• 72 - Reveals picks and says they were random.
  
• 73 - Talks about the matrix and Gamma.
  
• 74 - Disagrees with lynching based on probabilities.
  
• 76 - Follows up with Jaack on what his ideas were.
  
• 85 - Asks about SAJ's townread on Jaack.
  
• 99 - Pushes AA9 on why she was acting like Dun was tying her and Jin together. I agree with him. That post by AA9 just doesn't make any sense.
  
• 105 - Switches vote to Jin because of how he phrased his post. This was a weak argument by Tenshii.
  
• 127 - Explains why he's townreading both sides of the Jaack and Jin argument. This shows an evolving read on Jin.
  
• 128 - Changes vote from Jin to Prohawk based on Prohawk's pushes on Jin and Gamma. This was the post I thought was spot-on.
  
• 136, 140, 145, 149, 152, 157 - Engages Prohawk and his read evolves from scum to town.
  
• 181 - Declares townread on Prohawk and moves back to AA9, his previous scumread. Justifies it in 182.
  
• 184 - Defends SAJ.

So, he had solid reasons to think AA9 and Jin were scum. He then starts to townread Jin, moves onto Prohawk, interacts with him, comes away with a townread and returns to his original read on AA9. So, I don't understand what exactly you were scumreading here. He just came across as carefree and easygoing and his pushing and changing reads seemed natural. I'm actually very interested in seeing you justify this read because my read on you is mostly dependent on understanding why you had this scumread. All your other reads make perfect sense if you had Tenshii as solid scum. How was he avoiding scumhunting or commenting on the game? You've basically called both his evolving reads partner-reads, as if the only reason he would change his reads is if he was partnered with them. You explicitly said he was partnered with Jin and later implied that he could be partnered with Prohawk. What agendas was he pushing? His interactions are being guided by his mindset? What does that even mean?

Funny how ssbm_kyouko was so spot on about one of Dun or Smart being scum. I know it to be true at this point but it's completely unhelpful. I'm skimming over the math stuff between ssbm and Smart. Seems tangential and not relevant.

237 - This Prohawk post might point towards Smart being town just based on Prohawk's tone. Seemed more like he was bothered that Smart correctly nailed it down.

244 - I agree with his point about Prohawk's opportunistic push and I can see Smart not being entirely sure on SAJ but thinking Prohawk is clear if SAJ were scum.

248 - The unvote on Smart is something scum kind of has to do because of how much content Smart posted so I'm on the fence there. Not impressed with the ZZZX push based on the fact that he didn't have a plan.

252 - This post by ssbm is a pretty good one and the distancing vibes that he saw from Dun and Prohawk were similar to what I saw during my first catch up of the game. 261 is pretty kickass too. I love this guy.

259 - I like that Smart recognized some of the towntells ssbm was giving off. Something that Dun was apparently oblivious to.

264 - I don't like this Dun's post at all. First off, telling ssbm that he needs to post non-probability based reads is ridiculous because while he did make a few probability arguments, he also made a really stellar post on why Prohawk was scum which Dun seemed to have glossed over. I also think the way she reacted to being called out as a Prohawk partner was a bit too cautious and hesitant and does re-affirm my belief that it was the right call. She keeps insisting that there doesn't necessarily have to be scum in herself, ssbm, and Smart which is true but she also ignores that ssbm's perspective betrayed a very townish and non-survival oriented strategy. It's the thing Smart picked up on but Dun didn't. She then committed to voting ssbm which I could see as her wanting to eliminate someone who nailed the scumteam via lynch.

283 - @Dun, could you go over why you asked this question at this particular point?

287 and 291 - This makes sense with Smart's reads and Smart is right that ssbm came off a whole lot more town than Dun. I don't entirely agree with ssbm's 306 because while Smart did jump on the Tenshii flashwagon idea, he had a strong solid scumread on Tenshii and it's only natural that he would hop on. In fact, if he didn't vote Tenshii at that point, I would have been more suspicious. Prohawk and Dun both doubled down and drove the ssbm_kyouko lynch through at this point which does make me think he nailed the scumteam and they reacted by getting him lynched. Smart's moves make perfect sense if his Tenshii read was genuine. The key is figuring out whether it is and for that I'll wait for his response.

So, after reading D1, I'm leaning

very

strongly towards Dunhallym as scum. I'm going to read the rest of the game tomorrow and see what I think and vote in the next couple of days. Hopefully Dun will be back too to respond to my points.

[Dunhallym]

I'm back home. I'll try to read and answer later tonight or tomorrow.

[Dunhallym]

I have finally come to the conclusion that Smart is likely town too. Mainly because he didn't push Tenshii yesterday, which would have been the logical move for him if he had been Prohawk's partner given his previous suspicions and Jaack's initial post.
I have a lot to say about BV but first I'll answer some stuff. I start with that because 1) it's quicker and easier to do and I'm tired tonight. and 2) because some of my answers to his points are relevant to what makes him scum.

Time to get back into this....

I'm feeling pretty good about Dunhallym being scum still. I still think my original feelings about her play relating to ProHawk are accurate, but the real kicker on a reread of D3 is this:

One last thing before I stop with the defense part: If I'd been Prohawk's partner I'd have been more decisive. I'd either have cut the loss or made a hard push on someone else. Because from the start of the day the only real alternative to Prohawk was me.

One of my favorite scumtells is when someone overrates their own chance of getting lynched in retrospect. There was some level of interest in lynching basically anyone aside from me or Gamma in the early part of D2. Even if you were one of the more popular lynch choices early on (both SSmart and I were interested, don't remember if anyone else was) you it certainly wasn't down to you two from the start. In fact, for the first half of the day there was little interest in ProHawk at all.

The early part of day 2 was pretty inactive. You said you wanted to lynch between {Prohawk, Tenshii, me}. Smart pushed me. Prohawk gave his list of "most likely to be scum" which included me though that one would not have been a problem for scumMe; then Tenshii also voted me. ZZZW was awol and Gamma not much better. So my lynch appeared a likely possibility, which I would have taken into account in my interactions with my partner. Doubly so when the focus turned to Prohawk. That's the point I was making. I was the most active player yet I didn't try to push anyone, because all of the time I was debating my issue about you, trying to sort it out and asking myself whether I should speak it aloud or keep it quiet and bring it up only if we mislynched and you were still alive on day 3. If I had been scum, don't you think I would have tried harder to push another lynch? Especially Tenshii as his lynch would have cleared the Prohawk-Tenshii case? Instead I pointed to you that lynching Tenshii didn't make sense from your POV. Not a very smart move for scumMe when that left me and Prohawk as your targets.

[Dunhallym]

I said that BV's points and questions about me were relevant to the fact I think he's scum. The main point is that he seems to be twisting everything I said to make it look bad. That's not the way of doing of someone who is genuinely trying to find who's scum between me and Smart but of someone who wants to show I'm scum. I probably won't answer everything but point the major points.

Continuing with my review. This is until the point ssbm_kyouko and Smart replaced in. ArcAngel9 is pretty much a blank for me so I'm probably going to rely on Smart to read that slot once I get there.

Game Review D1: Pages 5-8

108 is a decent point from Dunhallym. What bothers me is that it seems opportunistic to hop onto the wagon as Jaack was pushing it and Tenshii hopped on.

I didn't vote for Jin at that point and IIRC I wasn't suspecting him much at that time. I wanted Jin to explain himself. So you saying I was "hopping on the wagon" is a misrepresentation.

119 - This post by Prohawk could go either way. He puts both Dunhallym and AA9 in the lean town group and so doesn't have to push either of them. The rest of it is obvious. He was buddying Jaack to push an SAJ lynch through but that isn't helpful.

I'm not sure how people came to the conclusion that Tenshii/Prohawk were the team. It could be my bias but the entirety of page six is Prohawk trying to convince Tenshii that SAJ was scum and Tenshii cutting through his read although conceding that SAJ's post could have been ATE. I guess it could look like two scum "disagreeing" in order to distance. I'll try and keep this in mind when looking at people's reasoning for linking my slot and Prohawk. Tenshii's reasoning for suspecting Prohawk was actually spot-on.

156 - Weak point but this looks like scum calling their buddy out asking them to do more.

163 - Here's another post I'm ambivalent about. I could see why Dun would think SAJ was scum for backtracking on his read of Jaack by unvoting. This post and the continued questioning of SAJ in 165 looks a lot like what I would do as scum though. In fact, my primary reason for suspecting Dun was that she reminded me of my scumgame and at a lot of points, she approached the game exactly as I have done as scum in the past even in my newbie scum game on this site. If I were scum in her place, I'd notice that Jaack was a vocal town voice and would probably get SAJ lynched so would be "questioning" SAJ, calling him out on his inconsistencies and backtracks and slide onto the wagon as the deadline approaches. That's exactly how Dun approached this game. She seems thorough enough to pick up on minor details and competent enough to analyze the game in-depth. I just wonder how it never occurred to her that SAJ could just be a town player that's new to mafia. It's even more concerning that she didn't back off of ssbm_kyouko because he towntold a whole lot more. I'm going to get to that later. This is also a note to read through Dun's completed newbie game as town to see if she picked up on things that were non-obvious at first glance. Should read Smart's games as well.

There's also the fact that Dun is subtly parroting Jaack which is another behavior that I can't help myself with when I'm scum and a vocal townie is pushing a mislynch. It's not so much a blatant "I agree with Jaack" which would be null but rephrasing Jaack's arguments in her own words. Take for example Jaack's 173 where he asks SAJ if anything he does is alignment indicative. Around three hours later, Dun makes 174 asking SAJ what he considers indicative of alignment which is such an empty question and just piggybacks off of Jaack's push. Didn't like the Prohawk townread either. Looked like an easy way to slot a partner as town.

It's not an empty question to me and it was also a different question from Jaack's. Jaack's question looked more rhetorical and frustrated than anything else to me. My question was aiming at making an idea of Jin's view on how to scumhunt. In fact a lot of the questions I asked Jin were aimed at pushing him to scumhunt, give his reads, etc... At that point I was starting to become more and more sure he was scum but I was still trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

185 - These are all good, factual points from Dun but they also feel really mechanical and surface-level. I think I would have been bothered that SAJ said he never townread Jaack. I think Prohawk's ATE point is terrible but I guess I could see it from someone who doesn't read tone very well. I had the same impression when Dun grilled Tenshii on why he thought SAJ repeating that he was town was townish. Her last point on SAJ scumreading people who are voting him is weirdly phrased. I don't disagree that it's a good point but she said "

If he was a newb, I'd think that he may be biased as I have made the same mistake of trusting people who defended me and distrusting people who accused me but here it makes me seriously doubt the reality of those reads.

" But he is a newb. He joined a month ago. He was indeed biased and made the same mistake Dun claims to have made. So, why exactly is she doubting the reality of those reads even while acknowledging that they could come from town? The way he justified his reads in 186 tells me he is looking at the game from a very newbie-ish mentality that scum wouldn't defend town.

I didn't consider him as a newb simply because he said himself that he was not one. Underlined is mine:

I have come to understand that i, in some ways, come off as scummy since i deal with a high volume of attention.

Let me elaborate on this sentence i said before anyone takes it wrong. I meant that from the first game i had ever played of mafia/werewolf, i have noticed that people show me a lot of (mostly bad) attention for my gameplay.

Over the years, that has made me aware that i play a pretty scummy game no matter my alignment,

hence the warning in the previous post.

Since when is someone who has played mafia for years a newb? You're not the only one who missed it though as I recall Smart also bringing newbJin in his defense.
As for the mechanical and surface level part, you don't mention that it was a post where I did a short summary of the points against Jin and explicitely said so at the start.

I also don't quite understand why Dun keeps repeating that SAJ "hasn't done any scumhunting" and telling him to "stop saying that he's town and do something to prove it." How the hell do you do something to prove that you are town? He's a new player, getting grilled on his play, he's explaining himself but digging himself a bit deeper. It looks a lot like empty posturing. On that note, SAJ's 197 seemed really genuine although I doubt Dun was being evil enough to try and rile him up. It just seemed like she was using his inconsistencies as an excuse for looking like she's scumhunting and making a push she thinks is believable.

I'm never mean on intent. I can sometimes become "tranchante" (sorry I can't come with the right word in English) when I'm upset or because I'm short on time and want to go fast but I try to stay nice whatever my alignment. I was sorry to upset Jin. As for "showing you're town" it should be obvious from my posts, or so I think. The best way to show you're town is to try and find scum. Can you tell me where you think Jin did any scumhunting?

Dun's read on Prohawk isn't all that damning though. Tenshii and ZZZX both seemed to think that Prohawk's emotions and aggression looked town. So, this was mostly about Dun. I'm going to come back later and continue. Will have to see how the game changes upon ssbm_kyouko's and Smart's replace in.

[Jaack]

The early part of day 2 was pretty inactive. You said you wanted to lynch between {Prohawk, Tenshii, me}. Smart pushed me. Prohawk gave his list of "most likely to be scum" which included me though that one would not have been a problem for scumMe; then Tenshii also voted me. ZZZW was awol and Gamma not much better. So my lynch appeared a likely possibility, which I would have taken into account in my interactions with my partner. Doubly so when the focus turned to Prohawk. That's the point I was making. I was the most active player yet I didn't try to push anyone, because all of the time I was debating my issue about you, trying to sort it out and asking myself whether I should speak it aloud or keep it quiet and bring it up only if we mislynched and you were still alive on day 3. If I had been scum, don't you think I would have tried harder to push another lynch? Especially Tenshii as his lynch would have cleared the Prohawk-Tenshii case? Instead I pointed to you that lynching Tenshii didn't make sense from your POV. Not a very smart move for scumMe when that left me and Prohawk as your targets.

I'll agree that you as scum would benefit from a Tenshii lynch. Tenshii was town and quite lynchable. And while it's true you didn't push hard on Tenshii, you didn't seem to have a problem with me scumpairing Tenshii+ProHawk until I decided I'd rather lynch ProHawk first. All of the sudden I didn't have a case on ProHawk. But I didn't really have much of a case on Tenshii either - they were a package deal from my point of view until ProHawk scummed around after I voted him.

And your lack of pushing a lynch is exactly what I'd expect from you as scum going into D2. Your primary lynch target D1 was AA9/SSmart, but it was getting pretty painfully obvious that SSmart was town.

Your other options:
Tenshii - You didn't really push, but you didn't argue against even when the points against him weren't all that great
ZZZX - You tried to open up a lynch here subtly based primarily on PoE. But there just wasn't enough there for the more active part of town (me/SSmart) to latch onto
Jaack - You tried to open me up by getting 'paranoid' about me all of the sudden
Gamma - This lynch was unlikely because the chart was so kind to him

As scum you had to lynch either Tenshii or ZZZX and at least try to sew seeds of doubt in the universal townreads I was getting. And while you weren't blatantly doing any of these things, the arc of you actions D2 look like they were heading in this direction. Subtle pushes on ZZZX, letting town dig its own hole with Tenshii and suddenly getting 'paranoid' about me.

It was a good plan, but in the end it didn't line up.

[BlackVoid]

@Dun - I don't need to show anyone that you are scum. Jaack, Columbo, and Smart have all agreed that you were scum and the only reason the day is being held up is because I want to make absolutely sure because if I'm wrong here, three-way is going to be tough and the outcome of the game will be out of my hands. I've detailed my thoughts in absurdly long walls so I can give you lots of stuff to respond to and potentially show me if I'm wrong. Normally, I try to be concise unless it is lylo.

Regarding your points, you say you wanted Jin to explain himself. But I'm trying to look at it from both angles. If you are scum, that's exactly the line of questioning I would expect you to make. The way you postured yourself during D1 is pretty much exactly how I would play when I was scum: see that Jaack was pushing hard on Jin, see Jin contradicting himself and latch onto that push. I don't think it's impossible for you to do it as town but I have to weigh whether Smart's play makes more sense as scum or whether yours does and on balance, I still think it's you.

Jin may not have been new but he was certainly biased - which was something you said you have been too in the past. I didn't think it was scummy of you to argue that Jin was pushing players that pushed him. It has more to do with how you phrased it - giving a possible reason why he would do it as town and then negating it. It didn't seem like you believed your argument.

As far as Smart's Prohawk push on D2 is concerned, look at it from a Prohawk-partner perspective: Prohawk was under pressure on D2. There were only three people who could be his partner - you, me, and Smart. Whoever is Prohawk's partner would have to get both of the other two lynch in order to win. So, I don't think a hard-bus is out of the question here. The partner would have to make themselves look like the towniest of the three so I think powerbussing is one option that shouldn't be discounted. Of course, the more likely option is that they didn't and could have been caught off guard if they were townreading Prohawk hard.

I do have a question - you keep insisting that you could have bussed Prohawk but you had him as a weak townread. How could you have bussed convincingly without it looking like a weird as hell, last minute bus?

[Dunhallym]

@Jaack, MsColumbo, Smart
If you don't have the courage or will to read all of this, please at least read my answer to BV's point on post 264. To me that's the most relevant point.

Game Review D1: Pages 9-13 (till end of D1)

210 - Smart enters the game pushing a Tenshii-Prohawk scumteam with SAJ as scum if Prohawk isn't. I think it makes sense if he's scumreading Tenshii since my slot could only be scum with Prohawk, SAJ, or Gamma. Smart seems very sure that Gamma is town and there was no reason to think Prohawk was bussing SAJ. So, I get the Gamma townread. I get the Jaack townread. I can understand ZZZX and Dun floating around in the null pile but since they can't be scum with Tenshii, I could see a town-Smart plausibly not zoning in on them initially. I think the big question is why you were scumreading Tenshii. I want to see if there is a good backing behind this read because I glanced through Tenshii's posts before I replaced in and was fairly convinced he was town. Let's go over Tenshii's twenty posts until you replaced in:

• 10 - He advocates scumhunting first and revealing picks later on. Since you suspected Dun for similar reasoning, you were at least consistent.
  
• 11 - Non serious RVS fluff.
  
• 72 - Reveals picks and says they were random.
  
• 73 - Talks about the matrix and Gamma.
  
• 74 - Disagrees with lynching based on probabilities.
  
• 76 - Follows up with Jaack on what his ideas were.
  
• 85 - Asks about SAJ's townread on Jaack.
  
• 99 - Pushes AA9 on why she was acting like Dun was tying her and Jin together. I agree with him. That post by AA9 just doesn't make any sense.
  
• 105 - Switches vote to Jin because of how he phrased his post. This was a weak argument by Tenshii.
  
• 127 - Explains why he's townreading both sides of the Jaack and Jin argument. This shows an evolving read on Jin.
  
• 128 - Changes vote from Jin to Prohawk based on Prohawk's pushes on Jin and Gamma. This was the post I thought was spot-on.
  
• 136, 140, 145, 149, 152, 157 - Engages Prohawk and his read evolves from scum to town.
  
• 181 - Declares townread on Prohawk and moves back to AA9, his previous scumread. Justifies it in 182.
  
• 184 - Defends SAJ.

So, he had solid reasons to think AA9 and Jin were scum. He then starts to townread Jin, moves onto Prohawk, interacts with him, comes away with a townread and returns to his original read on AA9. So, I don't understand what exactly you were scumreading here. He just came across as carefree and easygoing and his pushing and changing reads seemed natural. I'm actually very interested in seeing you justify this read because my read on you is mostly dependent on understanding why you had this scumread. All your other reads make perfect sense if you had Tenshii as solid scum. How was he avoiding scumhunting or commenting on the game? You've basically called both his evolving reads partner-reads, as if the only reason he would change his reads is if he was partnered with them. You explicitly said he was partnered with Jin and later implied that he could be partnered with Prohawk. What agendas was he pushing? His interactions are being guided by his mindset? What does that even mean?

Funny how ssbm_kyouko was so spot on about one of Dun or Smart being scum. I know it to be true at this point but it's completely unhelpful. I'm skimming over the math stuff between ssbm and Smart. Seems tangential and not relevant.

237 - This Prohawk post might point towards Smart being town just based on Prohawk's tone. Seemed more like he was bothered that Smart correctly nailed it down.

244 - I agree with his point about Prohawk's opportunistic push and I can see Smart not being entirely sure on SAJ but thinking Prohawk is clear if SAJ were scum.

248 - The unvote on Smart is something scum kind of has to do because of how much content Smart posted so I'm on the fence there. Not impressed with the ZZZX push based on the fact that he didn't have a plan.

Again you misrepresent things. I was not pushing ZZZX at that point but explaining my read (to Prohawk). That's minor. But you mention the lack of plan as the only point against ZZZX when it was part of a bigger picture: i-e ZZZX seeming to have ideas and be willing to do stuff then doing nothing.

252 - This post by ssbm is a pretty good one and the distancing vibes that he saw from Dun and Prohawk were similar to what I saw during my first catch up of the game. 261 is pretty kickass too. I love this guy.

259 - I like that Smart recognized some of the towntells ssbm was giving off. Something that Dun was apparently oblivious to.

264 - I don't like this Dun's post at all. First off, telling ssbm that he needs to post non-probability based reads is ridiculous because while he did make a few probability arguments, he also made a really stellar post on why Prohawk was scum which Dun seemed to have glossed over. I also think the way she reacted to being called out as a Prohawk partner was a bit too cautious and hesitant and does re-affirm my belief that it was the right call. She keeps insisting that there doesn't necessarily have to be scum in herself, ssbm, and Smart which is true but she also ignores that ssbm's perspective betrayed a very townish and non-survival oriented strategy. It's the thing Smart picked up on but Dun didn't. She then committed to voting ssbm which I could see as her wanting to eliminate someone who nailed the scumteam via lynch.

That's the worst of your misrepresentation yet.
1) the post where I asked ssbm to give non probability based reads was not that one but #250, that is before ssbm had made his "stellar post" (261?) on Prohawk. And until that post, (nearly) all of his posts were probability based. In the post you mention I explained why I was asking him to do that and I stand by what I had said there: discussion of probabilities is something that's IMO very easy to fake as scum because it's neutral. The main issue as scum is that you cannot come up with unbiased reads, so you need to mimick them, but math is naturally unbiased. 2) you say that I glossed over his case on Prohawk. I explicitely say so in my post and say I'll look at it in details later. Something that has "escaped" you. 3) the reason I commited to vote, in addition to all the previous things that I had raised about Jin in the thread before, was that ssbm voted me for a weak connection to someone he thought was scum (and I didn't) when he had said previously that he thought I was town. Once again you are twisting things.
Can you expand on how my reaction to ssbm drawing links between me and Prohawk was "too cautious and hesitant"?

283 - @Dun, could you go over why you asked this question at this particular point?

IIRC I was rereading Prohawk because of ssbm's post against him and noticed he had never mentioned his thoughts on Tenshii after his back and forth.

287 and 291 - This makes sense with Smart's reads and Smart is right that ssbm came off a whole lot more town than Dun. I don't entirely agree with ssbm's 306 because while Smart did jump on the Tenshii flashwagon idea, he had a strong solid scumread on Tenshii and it's only natural that he would hop on. In fact, if he didn't vote Tenshii at that point, I would have been more suspicious. Prohawk and Dun both doubled down and drove the ssbm_kyouko lynch through at this point which does make me think he nailed the scumteam and they reacted by getting him lynched. Smart's moves make perfect sense if his Tenshii read was genuine. The key is figuring out whether it is and for that I'll wait for his response.

So, after reading D1, I'm leaning

very

strongly towards Dunhallym as scum. I'm going to read the rest of the game tomorrow and see what I think and vote in the next couple of days. Hopefully Dun will be back too to respond to my points.

I don't have the time/courage to make my other points on BV tonight. I'll do so tomorrow.
But I'll still VOTE: BlackVoid

[Dunhallym]

Well then just lynch me now. I'm sick and tired.
Good luck for tomorrow.

[Dunhallym]

Just one thing @ BV:
as scum you don't need to prove I'm scum but you need to prove you're town because you know the game will not end with my lynch and next day against Smart will be much more difficult.

[BlackVoid]

Honestly, if I were scum, I'd just take the free mislynch and then push a case on Smart tomorrow.

I have a soft spot for what you were doing earlier (accepting your lynch and telling people who to lynch the following day) which is what made it harder to pull the trigger. But I don't understand why you would give up without first catching up fully, re-reading and making sure you've got it right. I'm town so if you are town, your plan pretty much gives us a loss. That almost read like you knew you couldn't win the game so might as well throw in the towel.

[Dunhallym]

Because I've reached the conclusion that you are most probably scum. Because jaack and ms Columbo seem to think so too so i trust whichever is still alive to make the right choice. And because I'm sick and tired and need to worry about other things than this game because even if i was absent I've been thinking about it a lot. As for rereads i did one. I gave my recap of day 2 earlier. It gave me doubts but looking back at it i think you make much more sense than smart.

[BlackVoid]

Well, if you are town, we're pretty much headed towards a loss. Do get well soon. I'll finish reading up and look through both yours and Smart's previous games and see if I still lean towards you.

[Dunhallym]

Sorry if I'm wrong but given my accuracy this game it shouldn't surprise anyone.

[Something_Smart]

Working on a post, I should hopefully have it by this evening. (Sorry I haven't been contributing much; there's just a lot going on in my life right now.)

[Something_Smart]

Okay, finally getting around to looking at some ISOs.

ProHawk/Dunhallym notable interactions:

Just noticed that Dunhallym and ProHawk RVS'ed each other; if anything that strikes me as RVS distancing, especially since ProHawk makes his vote out to sound serious but changes it to Gamma 13 posts later.

PH and Dun continue to debate about whether it's a good idea to share picks. It's very likely that scum discussed what stances they would take in the scum PT, and so this interaction is something that probably would have happened regardless of Dunhallym's alignment. (Although noteworthy is that Dunhallym promises to come back with a better argument but then instead of doing so changes her mind and shares her picks.)

Dunhallym's 87 is a point in favor of Dunhallym being town and BlackVoid being scum. It would be gutsy to Dunhallym to call out her partner for treating her differently from another player. On the other hand, it would make sense for a townie to call out one scum for ignoring their partner like that.

In 119, ProHawk townreads Dunhallym out of the blue, for reasons that amount to "she's scumhunting like town and she's genuine."

ProHawk then makes a whole bunch of posts, none of which mention Dunhallym. Dunhallym makes 174, where she calls ProHawk lean-town, and 176, which strikes me as a bit partner-defendy, especially since ZZZX made a comment that wasn't necessarily negative.

After ssbm's lynch, Dunhallym's read on ProHawk graduates to a full-on townread in 320.

Then begins the interaction that I think is the most critical; where ProHawk claims that Dunhallym has a good chance of being scum (332) and then fumbles when pushed to act on that.

As Dunhallym pointed out, it's likely that he just meant based purely on probabilities. But that doesn't make his reaction to my 339 any less awkward; clearly I misunderstood what he meant, but rather than correcting my misconception he tries to play my suggestion off as ridiculous in 348. I asked him again in 359, and he shrugged me off again.

In 374 Dunhallym still townreads ProHawk despite admitting a possible connection between him and Tenshii, saying that she doesn't want to lynch someone just on a partner connection.

She tries to figure out why Tenshii and ProHawk are townreading each other in 377 but never really followed up on it.

402 is ProHawk's response to my 397, where I gave ProHawk an argument for why he should vote Dunhallym that was intentionally only valid from my POV. He didn't vote Dunhallym, nor did he show me why my logic wasn't valid. All I got was an "Uhmmm what? "

ProHawk calls Dunhallym the towniest player and begins his desperate crusade against Jaack.

As pressure on ProHawk grows, Dunhallym makes post 466, where she basically states that she has no solid scumreads and that she doesn't feel good about the lack of case on ProHawk, including asking me for one in 469, after which Grey comes in and hammers.


After reading this, I don't feel much better about Dunhallym than I did before. There's the way the two townread each other consistently, plus ProHawk's edginess and evasiveness when I asked him to vote Dunhallym, plus Dunhallym's continued defense of ProHawk, that make me think that Dunhallym is likely scum. 87 is the only interaction that I would call an unlikely partner interaction.

However, I still plan to look at the interactions between ProHawk and Tenshii/BlackVoid. That will probably come Saturday or Sunday.

Also, happy New Year's!

[Dunhallym]

OK. So after a good night's rest I feel slightly better. I'll try to do my best cause you are right that I shouldn't quit. It's not in character for me as either alignment. And I owe it to town to try my best. So I'll answer some things. I'd also like you to answer my points about you misrepresenting me.

@Dun - I don't need to show anyone that you are scum. Jaack, Columbo, and Smart have all agreed that you were scum and the only reason the day is being held up is because I want to make absolutely sure because if I'm wrong here, three-way is going to be tough and the outcome of the game will be out of my hands. I've detailed my thoughts in absurdly long walls so I can give you lots of stuff to respond to and potentially show me if I'm wrong. Normally, I try to be concise unless it is lylo.

Regarding your points, you say you wanted Jin to explain himself. But I'm trying to look at it from both angles. If you are scum, that's exactly the line of questioning I would expect you to make. The way you postured yourself during D1 is pretty much exactly how I would play when I was scum: see that Jaack was pushing hard on Jin, see Jin contradicting himself and latch onto that push. I don't think it's impossible for you to do it as town but I have to weigh whether Smart's play makes more sense as scum or whether yours does and on balance, I still think it's you.
Jin may not have been new but he was certainly biased - which was something you said you have been too in the past. I didn't think it was scummy of you to argue that Jin was pushing players that pushed him. It has more to do with how you phrased it - giving a possible reason why he would do it as town and then negating it. It didn't seem like you believed your argument.

Being biased as a newb is fine. But when you play "for years" you generally learn the hard way not to be that biased. Players that are always biased however are scum since they know things from the start. As for the way I phrased it, I had reached the point where I was convinced Jin was scum so this was just one more thing that went in that direction to me.

As far as Smart's Prohawk push on D2 is concerned, look at it from a Prohawk-partner perspective: Prohawk was under pressure on D2. There were only three people who could be his partner - you, me, and Smart. Whoever is Prohawk's partner would have to get both of the other two lynch in order to win. So, I don't think a hard-bus is out of the question here. The partner would have to make themselves look like the towniest of the three so I think powerbussing is one option that shouldn't be discounted. Of course, the more likely option is that they didn't and could have been caught off guard if they were townreading Prohawk hard.

It's not so much Smart's push on Prohawk that makes me think Smart's not Prohawk's partner than the rest of the day.
At the start of the day leader Jaack (he didn't lead that much in early day 2 but after day 1 I know I considered him as the effective leader) said he would lynch between me, Prohawk and Tenshii. Smart had expressed dtrong suspicions of Tenshii on day 1 so logical play for scumSmart as Prohawk partner would have been to keep pushing Tenshii. Instead he went after me and said he suspected Tenshii less because he suspected me more. Then later, as I questioned him on Prohawk he said he was leaning scum on Prohawk. Then he said the lynch was me or Prohawk (see questions I asked him above) before you replaced in, but he was not including Tenshii. I had a hard time understanding why which is why I asked. I still don't really get it for townSmart but for scumSmart it makes 0 sense. The way Smart answered me (i-e the fact he didn't question the motivation of my question and try to twist it to his advantage and / or to my disadvantage) is also a point in his favour.
If Prohawk and Smart had been the team the winning plan (Smart seems to be a believer in such plans) would have been to lynch Tenshii day 2 to kill Jaack's suspicions on Prohawk/Tenshii then get me lynched on day 3.
But the main thing that makes me think Smart's more likely town than you is his approach of today. I don't have issues with his reread like I have with yours.

I do have a question - you keep insisting that you could have bussed Prohawk but you had him as a weak townread. How could you have bussed convincingly without it looking like a weird as hell, last minute bus?

I said I would have taken a firmer stance one way or the other because I'm aware that staying in the middle of the river, i-e defending but not really, is the worst looking position you can take as a partner. You are right that I probably wouldn't have gone with bussing (assuming my initial stance on partner Prohawk had been the same at the end of day 1/start of day 2). But I would have firmly refused to lynch Prohawk. Since Gamma and Tenshii both had him as town, he couldn't get lynched without me. The right strategy IMO would have been to refuse to vote him and push an alternate lynch that wasn't me.