Undertale Mafia: Friends & Corpses [GAME OVER]

[SirCakez]

Oh look Jae there's your "movement of gamestate". Almost must be scum now!

[SirCakez]

CFJ being scum trying to get the wagon off his scumbuddy A50 would make a shitload of sense here.

[MathBlade]

CFJ being scum trying to get the wagon off his scumbuddy A50 would make a shitload of sense here.

I don't think Almost50 is scum here. I just don't think people don't want a second round of conf towns or to have to lie. If Nahdia is Jailkeep and is forced to hit <redacted>. If redacted is jailkept it will be obvious. If redacted is not jailkept it will be obvious. That is why we need JaeReed to hammer almost50.

[MathBlade]

I just think* wow thought merge *blush*

[BigYoshiFan]

CFJ being scum trying to get the wagon off his scumbuddy A50 would make a shitload of sense here.

But not me?

[BigYoshiFan]

A few things, MathBlade.
1. Is there any reason to believe that Maxous told the truth about who he blocked?
2. When you say "post-Maxous", what exactly do you mean?

[BigYoshiFan]

Also, are you claiming that Gio is cleared because he called out Maxous as an ascetic?

[SirCakez]

CFJ being scum trying to get the wagon off his scumbuddy A50 would make a shitload of sense here.

I don't think Almost50 is scum here. I just don't think people don't want a second round of conf towns or to have to lie. If Nahdia is Jailkeep and is forced to hit <redacted>. If redacted is jailkept it will be obvious. If redacted is not jailkept it will be obvious. That is why we need JaeReed to hammer almost50.

Why don't you think he's scum?

CFJ being scum trying to get the wagon off his scumbuddy A50 would make a shitload of sense here.

But not me?

You're probably town due to the no night kill thing Night 5. Don't think scum would waste a kill just to "confirm" someone.

[BigYoshiFan]

With all of the debate over A50, Yoshi and PV I think this is the safest bet for scum now

I didn't read through all of the posts, but I saw multiple claims for a full claim.
I am Toriel.
1-shot Universal Doctor and Priestess
I can heal everybody during the night once and I can't hammer.

This claim seems fake as hell

Everyone MathBlade's hammered on (as in had an argument with) is town.
I'm obviously an example, but disputes with Ankamius and Nahdia can be as well.
I've noticed that he's let people slip under the radar, and I accuse those as their partners.
I think Creeps20 would be a good example of this.

As of now I think the scumteam is Math/Gio/Narna/Creeps20
If there is a fifth one, it's not Ankamius or Nahdia. Not sure where to look for that one, but I think relationships (or lack of relationships) with Math is key.
Of course all of these reads are based on Math, but that's all the reads I've made.
Now, I seriously need to focus on finals.

Where did your scumread on me go?

yoshi is trolling because he's caught scum and wants to shit up the thread even more before he inevitably gets hammered in the hopes that people will be too unmotivated to catch his scum buddies

^ this
Like I can't see why he's spam so much garbage like if he was legit town

I think town in this scenario would be a lot more cooperative, no?

Narna/Creeps FFS
Not Chara town flip is unsurprising though
Since Narna was town that basically confirms an investigation result manipulator I believe?

I think scum is in (A50, PV, Callforjudgement, Ank) at this point, with a small chance of Yoshi scum if there was a nokill gambit to "clear" him.

Yes, you clearly thought I was townie for my claim.

[MathBlade]

A few things, MathBlade.
1. Is there any reason to believe that Maxous told the truth about who he blocked?
2. When you say "post-Maxous", what exactly do you mean?

1. Yes. When I baited him out with the possibility of living I pretended to work with him. Furthermore Gio would have had to lie on D2 with his results as well while being psychic and know that it would help Maxous down the line. I don't see scum intentionally setting up a scenario where they have to lie. Therefore Gio is likely telling the truth and with how the D2 claims played out then it implies Maxous ascetic.

2. After Maxous's new faction thingy.

[MathBlade]

Also, are you claiming that Gio is cleared because he called out Maxous as an ascetic?

Partially but also how he did. Shiro was an outed rolecop and wasn't killed. This gives credence to Gio Town as well as if Gio was lying about being a weak follower Shiro would have been a threat N3. Instead he is able to check Cakez and be in the hood. This means Gio was not with Maxous.

[MathBlade]

This also means that if Maxous was not the killer at the start of the game it has to be Ank or Nahdia FMPOV.

[callforjudgement]

OK, so since I proposed my Gio/Cakez/MB scumteam theory in this thread, MathBlade has gone off on a rant in the neighbourhood and basically accused me of gamethrowing, and SirCakez has accused me of being scum. I was mostly checking to see if other people thought it was feasible rather than fishing for reactions, but that doesn't mean I'm going to disregard that sort of reaction if I

get

them.

I think it's fairly likely that MathBlade thought that the game was sewn up, and is reacting so violently because I'm trying to throw a wrench into that. Thinking the game's sewn up isn't necessarily a scumtell by itself, but in this game, where most of the players have expressed confusion as to what's going on and many players have threatened to replace out or disrupted the game to the extent of needing to be force-replaced as a result, I can't see town having that sort of confidence in a plan unless they were

heavily

underclaimed; it requires inside knowledge that has to come from somewhere.

Let's see what MathBlade's plan accomplishes: it proves, by day 9, that if Gio is lying about a Follower, that either SirCakez or MathBlade is scum with them; it proves that Nahdia is in fact a Jailkeeper; and it discourages non-groupscum players from nightkilling JaeReed. That's more or less it. Now, that information isn't useless, but it also isn't gamewinningly useful.

Meanwhile, on day 9, there will probably be six players alive; perhaps five, if Ankamius gets another kill. If we don't hit scum by then, the only way that town could win then would be if the scumteam

currently

has two or fewer members (and if there were any third parties, it'd require navigating a screwy ending, something which really doesn't give any guarantees as to what happens). This was, originally, a 22 player game. We've only seen one scumflip. The most likely number of scum for a 22 player game, by a long way, is 5; and 6 is more likely than 4. That means we probably have 4 scum alive right now (although I'm assuming they aren't all in the same faction; if they are, there's a reasonable chance that town has already lost). Given that this game casts a lot of doubt on the nature of the scumteam, it's possible that the scumteam is rather weaker to compensate for their information advantage; perhaps there are only 3 scum alive. Even then, wasting lynches pottering around lynching townies is a really bad idea, as even against a scumteam of 3 we'd need to play a perfect game from then on.

So MathBlade's been playing in one of the most anti-town possible ways; encouraging people to drift into the iceberg, happily doing mostly inconsequential things while town's numbers get lower and lower, and then probably eventually getting endgamed. The thing is, I was trusting them despite this due to Gio's result, which is effectively impossible to interfere with; OTOH, perhaps Gio's simply just lying about it, which would make a lot more sense. MathBlade and Gio being scum together would get round that issue, though.

Further evidence for this is that SirCakez is pushing the Almost50 wagon and getting very defensive when I accuse him of encouraging JaeReed to hammer it, and meanwhile implying in #9826 and #9829 that he doesn't particularly care if JaeReed hammers Almost. MathBlade's on the same wagon, and mostly responsible for encouraging it to grow. Additionally, in neighbourhood conversation, MathBlade has been very reluctant to lynch SirCakez, except for the past few days (when they suddenly changed his mind with a SirCakez scumread); it was quite a noticable change. MathBlade is

still

reluctant to lynch SirCakez, but for different reasons (they want SirCakez' inventor shot around to be able to confirm that Gio is a Follower, because ???). I guess you can put it this way: it's often possible to figure out someone's scumbuddies via neighbourhood, once you know they're scum (I've done it before). If I knew for a fact that MathBlade were scum, I'd be highly certain that SirCakez were one of their buddies, and willing to lynch/vig purely on that information.

[callforjudgement]

This also means that if Maxous was not the killer at the start of the game it has to be Ank or Nahdia FMPOV.

Ankamius was not the killer at the start of the game. A solo SK would have no method of knowing when lylo was. A role like Ankamius' (which is pretty much confirmed as existing by the kill on Not Chara) would have to have a restriction preventing it functioning in lylo or the day before, in order to avoid a surprise endgame, which would be a huge setup design mistake (and something that reviewers nearly always check for, especially in setups which have screwy faction or kill setups).

[MathBlade]

I did not accuse you of gamethrowing in the slightest.

Having almost have the group fucking confirmed by tomorrow is a pretty big ass deal when we don't know how many evil people there are. We need confirmed town at this point.

I dare you to call me anti Town when I have to fucking drag people to the right things and they still do the wrong ones. I dare you. People voted Creeps because he was fucking VLA. I have had to claw and fight because people don't think about mechanics like I do. They just go bastard and fucking discard them.

I understand the gravity of the situation and I am trying to protect people in order to do so. I want to fucking demonstrate my townread of Gio to you all so you can see that I am indeed fucking conftown and JaeReed and I will be two unkillable conftown a (well except if someone has a strongman) and then any evil will be forced to murder and lynch each other.

[BigYoshiFan]

This also means that if Maxous was not the killer at the start of the game it has to be Ank or Nahdia FMPOV.

Whom you are both accusing as being third-party members, correct?

[MathBlade]

This also means that if Maxous was not the killer at the start of the game it has to be Ank or Nahdia FMPOV.

Ankamius was not the killer at the start of the game. A solo SK would have no method of knowing when lylo was. A role like Ankamius' (which is pretty much confirmed as existing by the kill on Not Chara) would have to have a restriction preventing it functioning in lylo or the day before, in order to avoid a surprise endgame, which would be a huge setup design mistake (and something that reviewers nearly always check for, especially in setups which have screwy faction or kill setups).

Lol not true. Shadowrun had a gungiver that wiped out LyLO for Town. A role as Ank has claimed may or may not have a LyLO restriction and if this is multiball there is very little concept of LyLO.

[MathBlade]

This also means that if Maxous was not the killer at the start of the game it has to be Ank or Nahdia FMPOV.

Whom you are both accusing as being third-party members, correct?

Nahdia primarily but Ank just gives me the jeebies and I have a way of confirming if Nahdia is town so I want to do that.

[BigYoshiFan]

Also, are you claiming that Gio is cleared because he called out Maxous as an ascetic?

Partially but also how he did. Shiro was an outed rolecop and wasn't killed. This gives credence to Gio Town as well as if Gio was lying about being a weak follower Shiro would have been a threat N3. Instead he is able to check Cakez and be in the hood. This means Gio was not with Maxous.

I'm sorry, I still don't understand. Shiro was kept alive; therefore, Gio is more townie?

[MathBlade]

Exactly. If Gio was lying about being a weak follower Shiro could have confirmed that by hitting him. As scum it is much too high a risk to keep someone alive who can confirm you are a liar. Hence Gio is more townie yes.

[callforjudgement]

Having almost have the group fucking confirmed by tomorrow is a pretty big ass deal when we don't know how many evil people there are. We need confirmed town at this point.

Very few people will be confirmed. The only actual confirmation by tomorrow will be that Nahdia has a roleblock. That wouldn't actually confirm them as town. (Note that confirming the protective half of the JK role is basically impossible.)

I understand the gravity of the situation and I am trying to protect people in order to do so. I want to fucking demonstrate my townread of Gio to you all so you can see that I am indeed fucking conftown and JaeReed and I will be two unkillable conftown a (well except if someone has a strongman) and then any evil will be forced to murder and lynch each other.

I do not believe your plan is capable of confirming Gio's alignment. I do not believe your plan is capable of confirming Gio's role without making various assumptions about specific people being town (and even if it does, it'll be too late to be useful). You may try to convince me otherwise in the neighbourhood, if it's me who's missing something and not you; I wouldn't want an argument like this to blow up out of a simple misunderstanding, so I'm willing to be corrected! But I'm not willing to be corrected with mere assertions, I'll need proof.

[callforjudgement]

The Shiro argument is plausible, I'll have to reread that.

However I think it exposes a flaw in some of the assumptions you've been making in other arguments. Here's a question that should expose it: Are you assuming that the killer pre-Maxous-flip was aligned with Maxous, or not? If they were, then is the killer now aligned with Maxous?

[callforjudgement]

(And by "the killer" I'm including "killers" plural, in the case that there's a groupscum team with a kill.)

[MathBlade]

The Shiro argument is plausible, I'll have to reread that.

However I think it exposes a flaw in some of the assumptions you've been making in other arguments. Here's a question that should expose it: Are you assuming that the killer pre-Maxous-flip was aligned with Maxous, or not? If they were, then is the killer now aligned with Maxous?

Two killers is very unlikely considering we have had 7 nights in a row without two kills. And one was a vig shot declared by Ank. If there are two kills tonight Ank is confirmed scum and a liar because he is claimed VT and I doubt (assuming two scum teams) they both would randomly hit Narna after leaving Narna alone.

I was hypothesizing both ways.

If the killer was Maxous then a new scum team formed and hence Narna's death.
If it was not Maxous my money is on Nahdia.

I am also thinking with how much Nahdia insisted a new group had to exist Nahdia is likely a part of it. I just need a chance to prove Nahdia can't Jailkeep and unless JaeReed is protected then he dies tonight more than likely.

[MathBlade]

Well except last night*