Newbie 1758 - Symmetry (Game Over)

[Hellfire Missile]

There was no traction with Hellfire Missile, despite both Sobolev Space and I considering a lynch there and switched to me once Huntress gave him the opportunity. Scum.

I don't understand. Who's he?

[Hellfire Missile]

Posts 873, 875, 877 from HM read like he's trying to distance himself from the Sequencer lynch and are a bit suspicious. I think he sees being on a townie lynch as scummy and wants to get towncred from these posts.
2. HM is much harder to read than Howard and ThinkBig. I disagree with most of the arguments he's provided but can't decipher if its because he's pushing an agenda or just newbishness. This gives a benefit even if he flips town. I think if lylo is me Howard ThinkBig then by putting pressure on Howard/ThinkBig (like we've seen the past couple of pages) and going through their ISOs will give me enough info to get a good guess of who is scum. If lylo is me, HM, someone else I'm not sure if I could do better than 50/50 however.

joy

i didn't realize lynches would go by so quickly, probably because it was/is the first time i actually made it past d1/d2
I didn't say (i guess you thought) that being on a townie lynch was scummy, but you could interpret that in a way..
Sounds flimsy but that's all i have

[HowardRoark]

(On phone) Hellfire Missile's self-vote question and expression of experience, but lack of substantive effort have me scratching my head; see quote from me about ThinkBig in the L1 situation. I'll have to go back for specifics with Sobolev Space, but it's small things leading to a general fear of being outdone by clever scum. Bw back home with a real machine in a few hours.

@Hellfire Missile: What was quick about the lynches?

[Hellfire Missile]

(On phone) Hellfire Missile's self-vote question and expression of experience, but lack of substantive effort have me scratching my head

what?
What self vote and experience

lack of effort due to lack of reads? (if so then its not for the effort of trying)

[Hellfire Missile]

@Hellfire Missile: What was quick about the lynches?

Everything went by so quick even though it was 3 days

idk what happened

[Sobolev Space]

(On phone) Hellfire Missile's self-vote question and expression of experience, but lack of substantive effort have me scratching my head; see quote from me about ThinkBig in the L1 situation.

Can you explain the self vote comment?

I'll have to go back for specifics with Sobolev Space, but it's small things leading to a general fear of being outdone by clever scum.

I guess I'll have to see your specifics to better respond to this but if this is what you're worried about I think you're far overestimating my cleverness lol. This is literally my first forum mafia game.

@HM: Hypothetical question - if we get to near the end of deadline and Howard and I are both voting for each other who do you hammer?

[HowardRoark]

880 "Would you like me to self vote?"
900 "i work much better with AtE's than well whatever you guys did/are doing"

There was no traction with Hellfire Missile, despite both Sobolev Space and I considering a lynch there and switched to me once Huntress gave him the opportunity. Scum.

I don't understand. Who's he?

Looking at 909, it's easy to see that I was talking about ThinkBig.

@Sobolev Space: First forum mafia game does not mean you aren't intelligent and aren't capable of playing a smart game. Don't want to wreck your question, but it reads very scummy.

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

[Hellfire Missile]

880 "Would you like me to self vote?"
900 "i work much better with AtE's than well whatever you guys did/are doing"

There was no traction with Hellfire Missile, despite both Sobolev Space and I considering a lynch there and switched to me once Huntress gave him the opportunity. Scum.

I don't understand. Who's he?

Looking at 909, it's easy to see that I was talking about ThinkBig.

@Sobolev Space: First forum mafia game does not mean you aren't intelligent and aren't capable of playing a smart game. Don't want to wreck your question, but it reads very scummy.

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

i wanted to die at that point

[Sobolev Space]

Don't want to wreck your question, but it reads very scummy.

Are you talking about my question to you or to HM? I asked my question to HM that way because whenever we ask him for his reads he just says "I don't do reads" so I wanted to get a sense of who he's suspicious of by giving a tangible situation where he would have to act.

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

I'm still unsure about how voting goes in these lylo situations. Do we just vote when we feel convinced someone is scum and further discussion would be unproductive? In that case I'd have been ready to vote HM since the start of the day pretty much haha.

[HowardRoark]

@Sobolev Space: I meant your question to Hellfire Missile. Now I get your reason. Didn't mean to wreck it but there wasn't a response anyway.

Since we are in a LyLo where all remaining players appear to be vanilla, mass claiming doesn't help. Voting when ready is all that is left.

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, yea in retrospect I can see what you're saying about how that could have looked scummy. I was honestly just trying to get some information out of HM but I didn't expect it to be too successful.

When do people usually vote in situations like this? I've read through some other newbie games where people started voting pretty soon after lylo started. Since discussion seems to be dying down would that be a good idea or should we push on until near deadline?

[HowardRoark]

Timing varies depending on the game and players.

[Hellfire Missile]

was the reason why yall never voted for me because there were other scummier players?

[Sobolev Space]

HM, I'm not going to speak for Howard since it seemed like he was more interested in you as a policy lynch rather than having a strong scum read on you. For me, day 2 I thought Sequencer was more likely scum. Day 3 I still thought you were more likely scum than ThinkBig but by the end of the day it didn't look like we could get a lynch on you so I switched to ThinkBig.

[Hellfire Missile]

I think the n1 evidence is overwhelmingly against him. Howard, aside from a couple recent concerns which weren't a big deal, has been playing pretty townie the whole game IMO.

I'm pretty sure that mafia was/are trying to frame me for being a noob. Of course, i could have not known that he was a cop and so i didnt nk him, which would fit perfectly with me, if intentional

if unintentional then i guess it all worked out to their favor

(this feels weird. should i be taking posts from some time ago and replying to them?)

[HowardRoark]

Only a brief time or two yesterday a Hellfire Missile lynch was possible; I don't think it was possible D2. Regardless it was a policy lynch because I felt that ThinkBig

Joshz

was the remaining scum.

@Hellfire Missile: It's not wrong to go back through the thread and highlight previous posts. It can be a good way to make a case against a player.

I'm going back through Sobolev Space again to build a case. I've tried with Hellfire Missile but there's just nothing.

[HowardRoark]

215 reads "excluding myself and Jackel98 (for not posting)" Jackel98 had 10 posts which was more than DayahaangRai (8, who substituted at 137 so would probably have been in the middle of the pack) and myself (8). Sobolev Space only had one more than Jackel98 (11). I don't believe that number of posts indicates alignment (prefer quality over quantity) but her argument is flawed.
218 is a possible buddy defense coverup.
348 sets up a Loopdan as scum buddy mislynch.
400 possible distancing placing Jackel98 in the "D2 candidates" list.
410 states intent to pressure "Psyche, HM or Jackel" but never follows up.
450 questions Locust (town read) about wanting to lynch Jackel98 in same post as wanting to lynch him.
467 sheeps others' reasons for Jackel98 wagon but avoids voting while trying to get a feel for Human Sequencer's read on her.
491 buddies Locust and distances from voting Jackel98.
493 hammers while distancing.
506 asks Locust to investigate Loopdan or Huntress with a splash of WIFOM "investigate me."
531 (D2) "I know Locust and myself are town" before Locust has been confirmed (535) and sets up the WIFOM of the NK with Locust living which is continued in 543.

A start to chew on. I should be back later today.

[Hellfire Missile]

I'm going back through Sobolev Space again to build a case. I've tried with Hellfire Missile but there's just nothing.

I'd say that if i was a good player that it would be good
but im not
so that's shit

[Sobolev Space]

Howard, I'm conflicted about your recent postings. On one hand I think its unlikely you're scum since if you were you could get an easy win today by joining me on an HM lynch. On the other hand post 941 is a pretty unfair representation of my posting history and there are a couple other things that have given me cause for concern:

At this point I'm almost ready to throw out a vote and "good game" because I'm not sure that I can determine who's got me fooled.

I'm going back through Sobolev Space again to build a case. I've tried with Hellfire Missile but there's just nothing.

These seem to be contradictory. To me the last part of post 931 in general read a little weird because it seemed like you were trying to bait someone into a vote. I wanted to wait to see if you acted on it but instead you've gone the complete opposite direction.

You now have strong suspicions on me despite almost clearing me in post 909. Meanwhile you have given good reasons for being suspicious of HM (posts 927, 920 eg.) but now say that you can't find anything in his post history. I agree its hard to look for deliberate contradictions in HM's history due to his posting style (talk about this in the end of post 908) which is why we should have lynched him earlier. But unless you disagree with my assessment of HM's style its unfair to evaluate his posts the exact same way you would evaluate mine.

In general your arguments against me in post 941 are of the form "if Space was scum this action would make a lot of sense" but you don't find many explicit contradictions. I personally find circumstantial evidence like that unmoving but I'll wait to see what you have later today. The only contradictory argument you make is about 215 where I was mostly talking about recency of posting as opposed to overall quantity of posts.

[HowardRoark]

@Sobolev Space: I'm conflicted and trying to do anything to make a determination. The analysis

is

from a "if Space was scum" point of view. Do you have any specific responses any points? The L-1 thoughts are still valid though fall into that careful scum category. My concerns with Hellfire Missile, especially those you linked, are general and weak. "On one hand I think its unlikely you're scum since if you were you could get an easy win today by joining me on an HM lynch" reads more like baiting than mine IMHO.

@Hellfire Missile: What do you think of my points regarding Sobolev Space?

[Sobolev Space]

@Sobolev Space: I'm conflicted and trying to do anything to make a determination. The analysis

is

from a "if Space was scum" point of view. Do you have any specific responses any points?

My argument there was that pointing out contradictions is much better evidence than just circumstantial arguments. If you want my responses to specific points you made I can go point by point but in general the arguments I offered in the posts you linked were all arguments I believed to be true at the time. I think I do a good job of justifying most of my points so if you have problems with the actual reasoning I provide please bring them up. For example you claim that post 450 is suss because I question Locust about wanting a Jackel lynch while I also want to lynch Jackel. In actuality I wanted to lynch Jackel because I thought he was scummy but my question to Locust was specifically about what information we would get from a Jackel lynch since I didn't see it as being particularly informative - I wanted it to get rid of scum.

"On one hand I think its unlikely you're scum since if you were you could get an easy win today by joining me on an HM lynch" reads more like baiting than mine IMHO.

Can you explain what you think I'm baiting here?

[HowardRoark]

@Sobolev Space: For posts 491, 506, and 531 (as a possible scumslip) I would like a response. Perhaps it's simply bias, but it seems that your statement is at least as much "bait" as my expression of frustration.

[Sobolev Space]

Post 491: I initially didn't believe DayRai's cop claim because of post 266 by Sequencer which got rid of any way for us to verify/disprove the claim. When Locust repeated that claim to disprove Jackel's tracker claim, however, I did believe it (at least more than I believed Jackel's claim) because if he was lying we would have been able to figure it out by someone disproving him that day or d2 (after a Jackel lynch) and would have lynched him. I wasn't really buddying Locust as much as thanking him. I also wasn't trying to distance myself from my vote, I stood by it, I just wasn't sure of norms for voting in situations like that. The intent to vote was always there though unlike, for example, yesterday where I felt more forced into a vote.

Post 506: I told him that if

I

were cop I would investigate Loopdan or Huntress since they were who I was most suspicious of at the time. The part asking him to investigate me was just referring to how he was scumreading me all game, and it makes sense that cop should investigate their strongest scum read to narrow down possibilities quickest. I'm not sure how that was WIFOM necessarily so I can go more in depth if you want.

Post 531: I don't think treating Locust as conf town at that point was suspicious. Sequencer had done the same thing a couple posts earlier in post 524 when they said "If he gives a result, believe him because mafia is betting on us doubting him and lynching him, even though he's 100% confirmed at this point." The reasoning was that given Jackel's flip if Locust was not town someone could disprove his cop claim and town would win day 2 easy (unless he was lying as town which wouldn't make sense). The NK argument I don't really see as being set up in post 531 since Locust later said he got a result which contradicted what I argued in 531. If you want me to go more in depth on post 543 though I can as well.

[HowardRoark]

@Hellfire Missile: I disagree that Locust was scum reading you; he had mixed thoughts. Human Sequencer is dead so I can't question him on his statement.

@Xalxe: Please prod Hellfire Missile

4 days since last post

Deadline is about 40 hours away.

[Hellfire Missile]

ya know, what i've just noticed (pardon my shitty lack of skills) but no one has voted for howard
is it because he's a good player? or has no one noticed him