Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[massive]

Does this today:

Yeah lynching Jin was a mistake. Sorry guys. That said he was reasonably suspicious for quite a long time.

Line up with this from the hammer?

Ok I'm gonna give you guys the benefit of the doubt and see if you are onto something. Reading through those ISO's has made me more suspicious of Jin anyway

---

I believe either Kairal or Flubber are scum. 1.07. At least one, not exclusively one. I don't believe I get to 5 on D1 without there being at least one scum on the wagon.

In saying that, VOTE: Flubbernugget. And now to go reread both of them.

[Aj The Epic]

Do you have a particular opinion about Shadow here, massive? Especially since it sort of pertains to your scumread on kairal.

[massive]

Flubber, can you provide more specifics on when you started scumreading MDS and why?

---

AJ : I originally started out thinking that Cloudkicker's townslip was probably legit. I got bogged down in the force-replace / MDS distraction and haven't really paid much attention to Shadow, but I can go back and reread that as well.

[Flubbernugget]

I've stated more on my MDS scum read than you have your scum read on me

I'll dig actual posts up when I don't have to phone post. But a LOT of my d2 play calls out her scum read on me as an attempt at a cheap shot that backfired.

[Flubbernugget]

@Flubbernugget

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

As in, they were laying low but still around to resolve lynches

Sorry, I just to make sure that I understand. You are saying:

• that culted and I Am Innocent are Town
  
• that some people expressed suspicion of them because of their seeming inactivity
  
• that their seeming inactivity is due to the holidays and therefore not suspicious

Is that correct?

Yes

More importantly, MDS's push from this angle is less than impressive.

[massive]

I've stated more on my MDS scum read than you have your scum read on me

I'll dig actual posts up when I don't have to phone post. But a LOT of my d2 play calls out her scum read on me as an attempt at a cheap shot that backfired.

I don't even know that what I have for you is a scumread, but I feel very confident in my analysis of 1.07. Kairal gets some residual goodwill from D1-2 but I intend to explore this fully, and asking questions is how you do this. I reread your ISO and didn't see anything impressive except "sheeping" which is why I asked.

[Kairal]

I don't have time to dig into this right now so I'm posting it to remind me to do it later. On Day 1 we basically have 3 lynch candidates. Newman, massive and Io. We know that two of those three were definitely town. In other words we either had 3 town up for the lynch or we had two town and one scum. If massive is scum then we should see a clear effort from the other scum players to shift focus from his wagon to one or both of the others. From a quick glance I'm not sure I saw anything that fit that pattern, but I'll take a closer look later. If there's no such activity then we can probably assume massive is town.

If it was three town then I'm guessing scum would probably have been ok with being relatively inactive and just watching. I initially thought Shadow might fit that but replacing out suggests he really was just uninvested in the game.

[culted]

Guess who's back guys! Getting to this now.

Gonna start from page 36 since that's what I've got in my notes. : 3

[culted]

@culted, why did you hammer Io before giving her a chance to claim?

I didn't. If you're a role and someone declares intent and you don't claim you're either vt or scum silly!

Need more from Dierfire. So far two votes, Cloudkicker/Shadows slot (who I read town) and Io. 21 posts between him and his predecessor.

I haven't hated his content when he does post, though. And this is gonna sound weird but he's the only one who saw what I was trying to do during mini and cloud's early argument.

Was my subtle attempting at sidelining what I thought was tvt pretty obvious and something scum pick up on? Unbiased opinion would help.

Yes I suppose I can ask why. Given that you know I'm going to do so why not just save us all time? Can everyone who blankvoted recently or in future please do not and instead explain your vote.

There's certainly value to holding back reasoning that you're not accounting for, though! You don't want to let scum know why you're scumreading them, at least not right away. You also may want to see if other town are picking up what you're picking up. : )

Alright I can come back to massive later. I was about to lynch Cloud yesterday when he got replaced out and Shadow has basically slipped under the radar. I read through Io's ISO and either I missed it or she never really made a push on IamI - why are Shadow and Mini suddenly pointing fingers there?

VOTE: Shadow

I don't like the first line.
The last line seems like a throwaway question.

I understand why their suspicion strikes you as sudden. But why is sudden interesting in this particular instance, kai?

I am neither scum or scum. I am Jin, master townie. Anyways, if i had a gun to my head and i had to lay down a vote i would vote massive from going off of yesterday but i was wrong about Newman and IO, so maybe i am not 100% right all the time. About these votes on me, i dont seem to see a case, am i just missing it?

VOTE: Saj

I'd have voted him for that post too!

[culted]

Mini's 900

Calls jin lynchbait like 5 times and then tosses shade on him for 'copying her reads' in the same post.
One that doesn't make sense and is hedgy as all get out.
Two you basically saw'd flubber for voting jin just because jin has a lynchbait rep.

Terrible look considering that this was when momentum started to shift pretty strongly against jin; feels like trying for towncred on a mislynch but not wanting to kill the traction at the same time.

[culted]

Or maybe not try for towncred (depending on what kind of player scum!mini is) because that post isn't gonna look

that

good on a townflip as much as other posts would have.
But using jin as leverage while still opening the idea up for others to see him hang is more like it and is actually kinda worse now that I'm thinking about it.

[culted]

Reaction test.

I've developed no reads in this games by interacting with other players.
I thought town was going in the correct direction so I just sheeped my town reads basically, the Hello flip just baffled me. Even the way the claimed I couldn't believe it at all. It seemed like it was a last ditch attempt at drawing a CC.
Been pretty crap by my own standards, so I wanted to see how he reacts and how other do to it.

VOTE: Shadow

[culted]

The second half of the saj runup was whimsical and if I'd have been around I probably would have embarrassed myself. : 3



massive kinda takes the runup into a more serious zone by being the first person to really try and make a case (at least that day) and gives some pretty OKAY reasons like despite the buzzwords I could follow the thought process on jin seeming more hesitant with voting in certain contexts.

Then good old grey.

And then kairal.

[culted]

culted likewise has been on Jin from very early. Grey's vote is the only one that looks opportunistic. However he's obviously town. In short everyone on this wagon is either confirmed town or has been pushing this for a while.

Okay so wait.
Who was confirmed town on the wagon?
What does people pushing jin for a while have to do with jin's alignment?

[culted]

Benefit of the doubt? I don't know of a town that would lynch a claimed cop on day 1 without substantial evidence. What made it a "pretty blatant fakeclaim"?

Everything about it. And the point isn't that anyone would have lynched newman or not.

I sorta feel like if you had any compelling reason to think newman's claim was more likely to come from town (or shit, a compelling reason to think newman looked town at all would have sufficed) then saying that it was interesting for the particular people who didn't believe the claim would make more sense. But if you don't have a wavelength for that then I'm forced to assume you were noticing things stick out not because they didn't make sense to you but because they were things that stuck out.

[Kairal]

Alright so I went back through Day 1 a bit. As massive has pointed out in VC 1.0 he's the leading candidate for a lynch. There's no real effort to shift the wagon away from him until Newman comes in and immediately draws suspicion to himself. This suggests to me that massive is town and scum had no need to play their hand day 1 because Io, massive and Newman were all town.

[Kairal]

We currently have 9 living players and very likely 3 scum. Removing myself for obvious reasons that leaves 3 scum in 8 people. I've already explained that I think massive is clear.

I've had pretty good town vibes from Dier so far. His posts seems consistently analytical and helpful.

That leaves me with 6 candidates. I'm not really sure about any of them.

[Kairal]

I think I agree generally that a scum team of culted and IamI would probably not both vote for Jin in sequential posts. This suggests to me that only one of them is scum. I also think IamI's push on Dier doesn't really help scum at all. He's too townread for that to go anywhere. Better to focus one's efforts on easier to mislynch targets I think.

I think I'm ok with IamI for town then.

[Kairal]

That leaves me with 3 in 5. Mini, Aj, Culted, Flubber and Shadow.

Sort of hard to narrow it down any further. Shadow as I've already said looked like someone who wasn't paying attention- his desire to get replaced seems to bear that out. Mini and Aj have both sort of given me a town vibe. It's nothing concrete though.

That leaves culted and flubber. I don't have any huge reason to think they're suspicious I suppose. They both spent a lot of day 1 casting suspicion on Jin. Flubber was pretty keen on a massive lynch but then so was I. Hmm I can't really narrow it down any further right now.

[Kairal]

That said if we screw it up today then tomorrow is probably Lylo. I think we should seriously consider a full claim. It's too easy for scum to lie about roles on Lylo.

[Flubbernugget]

I'm going to scream

Massive has had nothing but insane amounts of resistance to his wagon and you still found a way to say "yep if you squint hard enough it actually means he's town"

Idgi man

Idgi

[massive]

Flubs since you're here, the stuff on MDS please?

[Gamma Emerald]

VC

[Aj The Epic]

That leaves me with 3 in 5. Mini, Aj, Culted, Flubber and Shadow.

Sort of hard to narrow it down any further. Shadow as I've already said looked like someone who wasn't paying attention- his desire to get replaced seems to bear that out. Mini and Aj have both sort of given me a town vibe. It's nothing concrete though.

That leaves culted and flubber. I don't have any huge reason to think they're suspicious I suppose. They both spent a lot of day 1 casting suspicion on Jin. Flubber was pretty keen on a massive lynch but then so was I. Hmm I can't really narrow it down any further right now.

Going to note this: I just had a scum HYDRA replace out of a game in Mylo. It's about as NAI as can be, especially since if a slot is coming under pressure, you'd be hurting your team on either side if you can't be there to answer that.

Mini's 900

Calls jin lynchbait like 5 times and then tosses shade on him for 'copying her reads' in the same post.
One that doesn't make sense and is hedgy as all get out.
Two you basically saw'd flubber for voting jin just because jin has a lynchbait rep.

Terrible look considering that this was when momentum started to shift pretty strongly against jin; feels like trying for towncred on a mislynch but not wanting to kill the traction at the same time.

Agree that it does look odd. MDS has a few oddities of play thus far (specifically the use of Io reads as her own until called on it) but nothing super noticeable besides that. If I'm not mistaken, MDS also did this to Flubber earlier in the game (calling him on sheeping reads). She also calls Jin lynchbait like once (rather than 5x), and the other time is actually a call on Shadow being lynch bait, not SaJ. While her read on Jin is waffled a bit, I think it's more a scumread on her part and a defense against Flubber's accused team of Massive/SaJ/MDS.

The second half of the saj runup was whimsical and if I'd have been around I probably would have embarrassed myself. : 3



massive kinda takes the runup into a more serious zone by being the first person to really try and make a case (at least that day) and gives some pretty OKAY reasons like despite the buzzwords I could follow the thought process on jin seeming more hesitant with voting in certain contexts.

Then good old grey.

And then kairal.

Honestly Grey was really into the Jin lynch. The issue is, no one in the town (outside Jin) really was interested in stopping it. Dierfire in 656 and 935 showed a logical progression that should've had him believing jin as scum (It was conditional on Newman being town, which was found after N1). Everyone voting Jin (other than arguably Kairal) was scumreading Jin. MDS... didn't seem interested in stopping it, and I'm inclined to believe hers was more a scumread on jin than a townread. Shadow doesn't mention Jin once outside a random quote ("how do you know me" essentially). Which really leaves me, who was townreading Jin but didn't really do anything to prevent it. The lynch was going to happen, it's more a question of the hammer time.

[Flubbernugget]

So I went from not *outrageously* scummy to the bottom of your scum list over one post you're just seeing now as opposed to the two times you iso'd me?

So I uhhh

Stuck to my word

And that is scummy

Wheeee

But you decided to declare it anti town well after you had seen it because?

Not to mention your argument encourages tvt which is the pinnacle of pro town behavior

If you wanted to argue theory you shouldn't have done it when you decided you wanted to make a push

Your argument boils down to the fact that I don't cry when people scum read me and thats pretty laughable thing to push

Ignore reads on me = not crying when I'm scum read

Not only am I scum hunting you right now, I started the massive wagon too

You fucked your reads up and you're not going to be able to backpedal to have it make sense no matter how hard you tried

Massive, I would like your read on cloudkicker. I see your 94 as not reading them as town, yet your 95 votes for someone else for *reasons*

And my vote is staying on you.

look at how random my vote is everyone

LOOK AT IT

you are lying in plain sight and i have no fucking clue why you don't think anyone would see it

You voted him during the RVS with no bloody evidence and you still credit yourself with "starting his wagon".

Like, it's not like I even care who started the wagon. It just boggles me why you keep bringing it up, as if you're trying to squeeze out some town credit in case he flips scum.

Is it because you *know* he is scum?

Yes, I was making the first accusations on him. You're accusing me of not scumhunting when I began voting him for the same reason you did later

Also, you blatantly lied. And it shows that you thought you would get away with it because you're AGAIN trying to handwave when I began to have an actual scumread on massive.

The reason why I'm iffy on it is because Flub could have quoted a number of other posts as evidence for his scumhunting, but he was specifically anchored on that *one* post and brought it up several times. It kind of looks like he wants bussing to pay off, if he's indeed bussing.

Because you voted him for similar reasons that I did and claimed for that to be your own independent thought. So you literally can't accuse me of not scum hunting without blaming yourself the same way

Ughhhh I just reread some of the thread from the beginning and seeing CloudKaflooey again made me instantly regret it.

Anyway, Flub, I did vote massive for slightly different reasons, mostly because he was voting an obvtown person (rather than an 'unexplained' vote), but like, okay, we got it, you were scumhunting and I was wrong about that. There, happy?

Your push reeks of covering up what you thought would provide for an easy lynch

So no I am not happy