Project ELO (Dataset released) - Page 3

Realeo · 2016-12-16T15:36:09+00:00

Let us solve the G.O.A.T for once and for all. [/b] 501 games anaylzed 288 players considered Mish-Mash has an ELO system to make a quantitative analysis of who

Realeo
Realeo

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Post Post #50 (ISO) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:02 pm

Post by Realeo » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:02 pm

I think what needs to be emphaauzed ia the progran takea average of elo of eaxh team. If thor ia assigned with newb mafia , the average goes down.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

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Post Post #51 (ISO) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:05 pm

Post by Realeo » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:05 pm

In post 49, mhsmith0 wrote:It depends. Part of why I've been separating out stats for town vs scum on newbie games. Some people are much better at one alignment than the other, so it's hard to say if you should really be equating a win against, say, nacho (much better stats as town, at least in newbie games), when you're scum against town!him vs vice versa.

It sounds good on paper until

1) you consider 3rd party or multiball

2) how doea it works in computation?

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

mhsmith0
mhsmith0

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Post Post #52 (ISO) » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:12 pm

Post by mhsmith0 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 8:12 pm

That's one reason why I'm only looking at newbie stats. A fixed 7v2 format makes it easier to tease out that sort of thing, especially since all six formats are reasonably similra in terms of balance (cop/doc/rb most town-sided and bp/tracker most scum-sided, but we're talking 40-55% town win rate for all of them)

Show

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?

mhsmith0
mhsmith0

Balancing Act
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Post Post #53 (ISO) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:00 am

Post by mhsmith0 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:00 am

Updated data, newbie 1370 through newbie 1763 (1758 and 1761 are ongoing and therefore excluded). Rask and pirate mollie now added the "players with 10+" list (otherwise list is the same just with new numbers):

Spoiler: results

Spoiler: updated data stream (only including 1500+ due to character limit)

Last edited by mhsmith0 on Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:09 am, edited 1 time in total.

Show

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?

Realeo
Realeo

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Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #54 (ISO) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:05 am

Post by Realeo » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:05 am

Here's an idea. Instead of win rate as win / (win + lose), try win + 1 / (win + lose).

It helps when the size of the data of a player is small.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

mhsmith0
mhsmith0

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Post Post #55 (ISO) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:13 am

Post by mhsmith0 » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:13 am

In post 54, Realeo wrote:Here's an idea. Instead of win rate as win / (win + lose), try win + 1 / (win + lose).

It helps when the size of the data of a player is small.

That's definitely a reasonable approach when dealing with small sample size issues. I've taken the alternative approach of simply ignoring data for players with too small sample size, and rolling it into "Anyone Else". That itself creates issues (some people with just a couple newbie games are very good, others really aren't).

At some point I may expand the consideration barrier to something lower than 10 games, likely around the time that my total # of newbie games approaches said barrier (unless I go on a newbie game losing streak of course

)

Show

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?

LicketyQuickety
LicketyQuickety

Survivor
LicketyQuickety: Survivor; Survivor; Posts: 12785; Joined: May 14, 2015; Location: Where the moon and the sea meet.

Post Post #56 (ISO) » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:18 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety » Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:18 pm

In post 53, mhsmith0 wrote:

Spoiler: updated data stream (only including 1500+ due to character limit)
Newbie 1500
Newbie 1609
Setup: Matrix6
Moderator: tn5421
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety, Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 1

Newbie 1612
Setup: Matrix6
Moderator: Not_Mafia
Outcome: Mafia Win
LicketyQuickety, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 2

Newbie 1613
Setup: Matrix6
Moderator: Equinox and Aeronaut
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety, Mafia Goon, lynched Day 1

Newbie 1635
Setup: Matrix6
Moderator: borkjerfkin
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety (SE), Town One-shot Bulletproof, survived

Newbie 1638
Setup: Matrix6
Moderator: Zaicon
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety (replaced Inanity, Bob64), Vanilla Townie, survived

Newbie 1654
Moderator: pieguyn
Set-up: Matrix6 with mafia daytalk
Outcome: Mafia Win
LicketyQuickety (replaced Crashing_Waves), Vanilla Townie, lynched Day 2

Newbie 1715
Moderator: Zaicon
Set-up: Matrix6
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety, Mafia Goon, Surrendered.

Newbie 1724
Moderator: KittyMo
Set-up: Matrix6
Outcome: Town Win
LicketyQuickety, Vanilla Townie, survived and won

Looks like I need to work on surviving longer in games.

I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!

You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.

Realeo
Realeo

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Post Post #57 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:50 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:50 am

Believe it or not, update 2 is coming.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #58 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:58 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:58 am

Update 2

Current Dataset:
Newbie 1370 ~ Newbie 1699
Mini Normal 1401 ~ Mini Normal 1789

We consider 501 games and 288 players had at least 5 games to be eligible for the elo system. The "1 game in the last 365 days" has been waived for this update until Newbie 17xx is updated.

The Elo can be found here

Things to do
[+] Integrate Newbie 17xx
[+] Find misspelled user (We have an algorithm in place to automatically detect it.. It's slow. I haven't coded the Dynamic Programming version.)

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #59 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:02 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:02 am

Top 25 ELO according to Update 2

1. fferyllt ELO: 1598 (Played 23 games)
2. Vedith ELO: 1569 (Played 10 games)
3. GuyInFreezer ELO: 1568 (Played 31 games)
4. Luca Blight ELO: 1565 (Played 12 games)
5. Drixx ELO: 1564 (Played 23 games)
6. SilverWolf ELO: 1562 (Played 13 games)
7. Hopkirk ELO: 1560 (Played 12 games)
8. Debonair Danny DiPietro ELO: 1550 (Played 11 games)
9. RayFrost ELO: 1549 (Played 7 games)
10. Thor665 ELO: 1548 (Played 34 games)
11. mastin2 ELO: 1544 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 12
ArcAngel9 ELO: 1543 (Played 8 games)
kirroha ELO: 1543 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 14
Scripten ELO: 1542 (Played 6 games)
Aeronaut ELO: 1542 (Played 9 games)

16. Espeonage ELO: 1538 (Played 10 games)

Tied for 17
emeraldemon ELO: 1537 (Played 5 games)
Malakittens ELO: 1537 (Played 37 games)
eektor ELO: 1537 (Played 5 games)
Sir Bastion ELO: 1537 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 21.
LicketyQuickety ELO: 1536 (Played 8 games)
Belisarius ELO: 1536 (Played 9 games)
Tamuz ELO: 1536 (Played 8 games)
SalmonellaDreams ELO: 1536 (Played 9 games)
pisskop ELO: 1536 (Played 21 games)

If you're in top 25, congratulation. Keep in touch for Update #3.

Last edited by Realeo on Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #60 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:21 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:21 am

Question: Should Open be considered for ELO leaderboard?

This Elo project has an incentive to create the most accurate measurement of player skill. This Elo project has an incentive to celebrate people playing in mafiascum.com

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #61 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:35 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:35 am

I'm thinking that since there is feedback system from modlist of Open, if the game is a repeated setup, than to a certain degree we can infer that the repeated setup is balance and we can consider that for ELO leaderboard.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Creature
Creature

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Post Post #62 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:50 am

Post by Creature » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:50 am

What about ELO from each queue?

Sigh

zoraster
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Disorganized Crime
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Post Post #63 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:57 am

Post by zoraster » Thu Jan 19, 2017 3:57 am

any chance you can show us how many games each person i nthe top 25 have played?

.

callforjudgement
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Microprocessor
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Post Post #64 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:28 am

Post by callforjudgement » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:28 am

Opens have an approval system; a setup needs to be reviewed before it's run for the first time, and if the trial run is successful, it gets added to the Open rotation to be given to new mods in the future. (Setups can also be removed from rotation if a problem is found). As such, you can expect Open games to have some of the most consistent quality on the site. (That said, not all Opens have balance that's identical to each other, only to other games with the same setup; not all the games are meant to be exactly 50:50 balanced, although if the balance is a long way from 50:50 the setup will be removed from rotation.)

scum

· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·

town

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #65 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:50 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 4:50 am

In post 62, Creature wrote:What about ELO from each queue?

I think this has been discussed before that this destroys number of sample.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #66 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:02 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:02 am

In post 63, zoraster wrote:any chance you can show us how many games each person i nthe top 25 have played?

Done

In post 64, callforjudgement wrote:Opens have an approval system; a setup needs to be reviewed before it's run for the first time, and if the trial run is successful, it gets added to the Open rotation to be given to new mods in the future. (Setups can also be removed from rotation if a problem is found). As such, you can expect Open games to have some of the most consistent quality on the site. (That said, not all Opens have balance that's identical to each other, only to other games with the same setup; not all the games are meant to be exactly 50:50 balanced, although if the balance is a long way from 50:50 the setup will be removed from rotation.)

So it's slightly skewed like Matrix-6, but still in acceptable margin.

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #67 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:10 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:10 am

Imagine my happiness when I found this

Edit: With proper formating!

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

LicketyQuickety
LicketyQuickety

Survivor
LicketyQuickety: Survivor; Survivor; Posts: 12785; Joined: May 14, 2015; Location: Where the moon and the sea meet.

Post Post #68 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:43 am

Post by LicketyQuickety » Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:43 am

In post 59, Realeo wrote:Top 25 ELO according to Update 2

1. fferyllt ELO: 1598 (Played 23 games)
2. Vedith ELO: 1569 (Played 10 games)
3. GuyInFreezer ELO: 1568 (Played 31 games)
4. Luca Blight ELO: 1565 (Played 12 games)
5. Drixx ELO: 1564 (Played 23 games)
6. SilverWolf ELO: 1562 (Played 13 games)
7. Hopkirk ELO: 1560 (Played 12 games)
8. Debonair Danny DiPietro ELO: 1550 (Played 11 games)
9. RayFrost ELO: 1549 (Played 7 games)
10. Thor665 ELO: 1548 (Played 34 games)
11. mastin2 ELO: 1544 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 12
ArcAngel9 ELO: 1543 (Played 8 games)
kirroha ELO: 1543 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 14
Scripten ELO: 1542 (Played 6 games)
Aeronaut ELO: 1542 (Played 9 games)

16. Espeonage ELO: 1538 (Played 10 games)

Tied for 17
emeraldemon ELO: 1537 (Played 5 games)
Malakittens ELO: 1537 (Played 37 games)
eektor ELO: 1537 (Played 5 games)
Sir Bastion ELO: 1537 (Played 6 games)

Tied for 22.
LicketyQuickety ELO: 1536 (Played 8 games)
Belisarius ELO: 1536 (Played 9 games)
Tamuz ELO: 1536 (Played 8 games)
SalmonellaDreams ELO: 1536 (Played 9 games)
pisskop ELO: 1536 (Played 21 games)

If you're in top 25, congratulation. Keep in touch for Update #3.

I have no idea if being in the top 22 is even good. How many people did you analyze anyways?

I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!

You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.

Realeo
Realeo

Jack of All Trades
Realeo: Jack of All Trades; Jack of All Trades; Posts: 5238; Joined: February 11, 2016; Location: Indonesia

Post Post #69 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:48 am

Post by Realeo » Thu Jan 19, 2017 6:48 am

288 players are eligible.
1852 players are not eligible due to "min.5 games rule"

"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo

My GTKAS thread

I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?

MagnaofIllusion
MagnaofIllusion

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Post Post #70 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:01 am

Post by MagnaofIllusion » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:01 am

In post 69, Realeo wrote:288 players are eligible.
1852 players are not eligible due to "min.5 games rule"

Until more people are eligible than not posting "Top 25" lists is highly skewed. Not sure if the effort of going through enough games is worth it to you.

"I am a leaf on the wind ... watch how I soar!"

Pretty much Geriatric game restricted at this point ... unless there are players I REALLY want to play with.

zoraster
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Disorganized Crime
zoraster
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Post Post #71 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:02 am

Post by zoraster » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:02 am

Ffery's lead is quite impressive. 29 point lead on #2, which is only slightly smaller than the distance from #2 to #25.

.

zoraster
zoraster
He/Him
Disorganized Crime
zoraster
He/Him: Disorganized Crime; Disorganized Crime; Posts: 21680; Joined: June 10, 2008; Pronoun: He/Him; Location: Belmont, CA

Post Post #72 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:03 am

Post by zoraster » Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:03 am

In post 70, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 69, Realeo wrote:288 players are eligible.
1852 players are not eligible due to "min.5 games rule"
Until more people are eligible than not posting "Top 25" lists is highly skewed. Not sure if the effort of going through enough games is worth it to you.

I don't think this will ever, ever happen.

.

mhsmith0
mhsmith0

Balancing Act
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Post Post #73 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:23 am

Post by mhsmith0 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:23 am

It's pretty interesting that ffery is given that much of a boost over GIF, given that GIF is 13-4 and ffery 15-6 (per my stats; I suspect that realeo's may be a bit different due both to tracking subouts differently and a different game sample)

Also, realeo, did you end up adding in normal stats or is this just newbie games?

Couple other players my #s had pretty high and I was curious what happened:
Karnage
Micc
singersinger
TSO

Show

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?

mhsmith0
mhsmith0

Balancing Act
mhsmith0: Balancing Act; Balancing Act; Posts: 10830; Joined: March 7, 2016; Location: Phoenix, AZ

Post Post #74 (ISO) » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:50 am

Post by mhsmith0 » Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:50 am

In post 70, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
In post 69, Realeo wrote:288 players are eligible.
1852 players are not eligible due to "min.5 games rule"
Until more people are eligible than not posting "Top 25" lists is highly skewed. Not sure if the effort of going through enough games is worth it to you.

I'm guessing it's a curiosity thing mainly, which is more or less how I treated it.

Show

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?