Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[BlackVoid]

Cool, have you caught up fully? What are your updated reads?

[Dierfire]

I'm catching up now.

[massive]

Naomi listing me as a scumread probably means this is town Naomi. As inexplicable as Naomi is, I can't imagine scum-Naomi being on the wrong side of the cop claim.

[Naomi-Tan]

Naomi listing me as a scumread probably means this is town Naomi. As inexplicable as Naomi is, I can't imagine scum-Naomi being on the wrong side of the cop claim.

Oh Now you say something -_- I been talking about my red read and disbeliving of the cop claim since like 5 pages ago. but you only change your tune now. what gives?

[Dierfire]

All right, done!

Content is incoming, but I know that time is short. The important points are these:

I'm going back to reading Kairal as Town. I hate doing this, but I think that the self-hammer offer was sincere and I'm reluctantly rewarding it. I also think that Kairal's frustration before BlackVoid entered and cooling off afterward indicate a genuine frustration. I don't think that the things that I didn't like (1504 and on) are indicative of alignment to the same degree.

I'd feel really stupid voting for Aj The Epic given my previous read, and it has been low priority for revision such that I'm aware of others finding Aj The Epic suspicious but not really why. The interaction with Kairal over the last few pages feels like how Aj The Epic should be responding to Kairal as either alignment, but I think that the point about unwillingness to vote for Flubbernugget might hold water.

I think that several votes recently swung to Aj The Epic from culted.

Is there any chance that we can swing back, or move to Flubbernugget, for those of you reading all three as Mafia?

I had those two toward the bottom of my list and I got partway through reading them such that I'd feel more comfortable voting for one of them than for Aj The Epic.

[Dierfire]

@BlackVoid

my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.

What are you basing this off of? In Podoboq's game, he was incredibly active and pushing things a lot before he replaced out. That has not been my impression at all.

I'm certain that I cited a steep drop in activity level as a reason to be suspicious of the slot in that game (although I believe that the idea came from Grendel first).
I definitely recalled Newbie 1712, in which Shadow_step was Mafia and posted around 2.5 posts per page alive, and Newbie 1729, in which he was Town and posted closer to 4 posts per page alive, at that time (for reference Mini Normal 1838 was sitting at around 3 posts per page alive).

Since that didn't work last game, I reviewed more this time around. I don't recall which exact games a reviewed in my 993, but I think that Shadow_step had under 2 posts per page alive as Town in Mini Normal 1812 and as Mafia in Mini Normal 1829.

[Dierfire]

I'll condense it further:

NOT LYNCH: Aj The Epic, Naomi-Tan, Kairal, I Am Innocent (massive, BlackVoid)
LYNCH: culted, Flubbernugget

It's certain that I'm missing someone, but I don't know whom and our time is short.

[Dierfire]

Oh, we actually have about 15 hours. I thought that our time was even shorter than that.

[BlackVoid]

Is there any chance that we can swing back, or move to Flubbernugget, for those of you reading all three as Mafia?

Why are you reading AJ as town though?

[Dierfire]

I thought that Aj The Epic appeared to be trying to read alignments. In particular I thought that the exchange with Io was evidence for this (Aj The Epic was following up on her reads to address inconsistencies in 605 and 610).

[BlackVoid]

I don't find them all that indicative of AJ being town. Who do you think is the third partner then to Culted and Flubber?

[Dierfire]

I also thought that the push against Shadow_step in 1014 was an unlikely one for a Mafia player (no claim yet from massive, so massive or MiniDeathStar would probably have been easier at least in recruiting my vote). The VC in 1047 never materialized, but I'd be more suspicious of culted in 1036 than Aj The Epic in 1014.

[BlackVoid]

The problem is if AJ is town and it's Culted and Flubber, I also think it's very unlikely that you or Kairal are scum based on how they wagoned Kairal and how you are advocating for their lynches over AJ. That just leaves Naomi (but then, why would she advocate Flubber over Kairal or Culted?) or IAI is snowing me.

[Dierfire]

If I had insightful things to share, I'd share them!

I suppose that I could be wrong about I Am Innocent; the read there is fairly one-dimensional and relies to some extent on a questionable tell that I use to predict when players expressing suspicion of me are genuine.
I could also be wrong about Aj The Innocent, although I don't feel like I have any solid logic for that besides the fact that players I believe to be Town seem to find Aj The Epic suspicious.
I could also be wrong about Kairal, since there are a number of things that I found logically suspicious even though tonally Kairal feels Town.
I could also be wrong about Naomi-Tan, since there's no real reason that a Mafia player

couldn't

continue to cast suspicion at massive despite the overwhelming likelihood that the claim is true and the apparent futility of the effort. Also the "slip" from earlier feels like shaky ground to me; it's

unlikely

from a Mafia player but only because those things tend not to occur to them.

If you're asking for which reads feels weakest to me...well, Naomi-Tan is probably the strongest, but I'm having difficulty with the others.

[Dierfire]

Are you particularly worried about a team that includes Aj The Epic and me but does not include either culted or Flubbernugget? I ask because I agree that my current lynch list is missing a Mafia player, but I'd find it a lot easier to work through associations with a Mafia player flipped.
So, unless you're worried about {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, I Am Innocent} or {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, Naomi-Tan}, I'd prefer to just have you pick culted or Flubbernugget and I'll follow.

[Naomi-Tan]

I need a vote count before I act before sleep.

[BlackVoid]

@Dierfire: saying he townslipped is something Cloudkicker does as scum. Here are a few quotes from a previous game that IAI and I played with Cloudkicker:

Spoiler: Mini 1843

>I dont actually know if this is towny or considered anti-town for outing possible soft but, why using the word

Innocent

capitalized over town/townie/sided with the town ? And if this was a soft, wold you make yourself the goal to have interactions with me almost every single you have? like i feel you have 0 actuals reads on me.

Innocent is capitalized because I was talking about a player that is in the game -> "I am Innocent" I don't blame you for missing it that, he's a lurking bum right now.

I agree with Blackvoid's feelings when it comes to Rask, his wagon and Hoopla. Post 147 is good.

VOTE: Sable Spread out the votes

Wrong game?

LOL woops btw i just townsliped that i cannot be mafia with i am innocent or i am a pro at forum mafia in my first game

wow okay sorry i fucked up the format but essentially

1.TF proved that he didnt read scotty or my post when he asked why i said that. I literraly quoted scotty in the very same post when he said i was lurking

2.hey victor, congratz on not buying a literal townslip, how townie you are to discredit exactly a town calling a non-team slip on him self with a random dude. i will hardfos anyone who believe i am mafia with iaminnocent ->I dont care if you disagree, its exactly what happened

LOL woops btw i just townsliped that i cannot be mafia with i am innocent or i am a pro at forum mafia in my first game

Usually when you point out things like this yourself they're less likely to be true than if someone else noticed it themself. Kinda like when people use the argument "I would never do X as scum", when that person has been doing X all game.

I come from a site where its very very hard to townslip on purpose and this was genuine. Its not alignement indicative to point said slip, you can then judge for yourself if you believe it is one or not Mostly scum will disagree, ppl who will 100% buy it are scum pocketing you and the rest is yolo. Seriously most of the users on EM are disgustingly incompetent at mafia so i point out the slips. But i agree with the wifom.. i would never wifom like that as scum
Also, its just a non-team slip and its an obvious one

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, stupendous!

[BlackVoid]

Are you particularly worried about a team that includes Aj The Epic and me but does not include either culted or Flubbernugget? I ask because I agree that my current lynch list is missing a Mafia player, but I'd find it a lot easier to work through associations with a Mafia player flipped.
So, unless you're worried about {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, I Am Innocent} or {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, Naomi-Tan}, I'd prefer to just have you pick culted or Flubbernugget and I'll follow.

Actually, the more you post, the more convinced I'm becoming that you're actually town especially with the way you are approaching the game right now. I can't figure out why IAI is scumreading you and townreading Flubber because Flubber definitely comes off way worse.

I think AJ is probably a larger threat than either Flubber or Culted which is why I wanted to flip him first but that's probably not a great reason. I suppose I'll switch back to either Flubber or Culted. Let me think on it a bit. We also need to make sure we'll all be online and we can get enough votes there. I don't want to end up with no lynch or a Kairal lynch because somebody is not online.

Are you going to be able to post tomorrow before deadline? If so, what time are you free?

[BlackVoid]

I need a vote count before I act before sleep.

There was one on the last page and I even linked it to you but I suppose I can read you a bedtime votecount as a screw-you to the mod for not doing them enough.

Unofficial Vote Count

0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
3 - Kairal: Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
1 - Flubbernugget: Naomi-Tan
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
0 - culted:
0 - massive:
3 - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent

Not voting: Dierfire, Massive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2017-01-13 15:30:00)

[Dierfire]

I'll agree with the idea that Aj The Epic is a greater threat if Mafia, but that conditional is really important and I'm not persuaded of it.

I can be online about three hours before the deadline for about an hour, and if we really need an emergent hammer I can be on in the last 30 minutes.
If we need something earlier than that I can try to be online intermittently starting six hours before the deadline, but that will be sporadic.

[Dierfire]

I can also leave a vote if we might have trouble rallying a switch--but if I have to choose between Kairal and Aj The Epic, then I'll hold that decision until I absolutely have to choose.

[Naomi-Tan]

I'll agree with the idea that Aj The Epic is a greater threat if Mafia, but that conditional is really important and I'm not persuaded of it.

I can be online about three hours before the deadline for about an hour, and if we really need an emergent hammer I can be on in the last 30 minutes.
If we need something earlier than that I can try to be online intermittently starting six hours before the deadline, but that will be sporadic.

its certain little things isn't it? that just stick out.. weird interactions.. Its why I have him 4th slot.. Im unsure still and its rather bothersome.

I think flubs is still a safe bet considering you and dire have expressed that its a good choice and I feel at least 2 more may join it.

[Dierfire]

Yes, that sounds fair to me.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I'm leaving this here for now in case we need it to make the wagon viable. If we're switching to culted, I'll be back at the aforementioned times (best availability from three hours before the deadline until two hours before the deadline).
If we're switching to someone else, then I'll make the decision on the fly (and likely in the aforementioned period or at the very last minute).

[BlackVoid]

I have a stronger scumread on Culted than Flubbernugget.

@Dierfire, can you succinctly explain (or link to posts if you've done this already) your scumreads on Culted and Flubbernugget.