Newbie 1766 - Game Over

[Aeronaut]

Sofiel, the_end, ssbm_Kyouko, RB

[ssbm_Kyouko]

OK I guess it's fair, but knowing we have a doc that means we have an investigator whether it's tracker or copying so we should keep in mind no lynch is an option to let us get another night of results in before lynching.

[the_end]

Given the MYLO situation I agree that no lynch is a good idea. Another upside is that the tracker or the cop gets another chance to investigate.

[rb]

no lynch is shit, cop/tracker should just claim results now

[rb]

or we can go to lylo and scum fakeclaim 4 ez win

[rb]

actually we can no lynch i guess, right now it's 4v2 which means that simply by voting for any player not themselves, town have a 40% chance of hitting scum (if you know you're town there's 5 other players, 2 are scum = 40%)

if we no lynch it's 3v2 which means that simply by voting anyone not themselves, town have a 50% chance of hitting scum

[rb]

the only caveat is that I think it's best if cop claims TODAY not tomorrow otherwise tomorrow is gonna be a fucking claimfest by scum

[rb]

altho realistically if cop claims and gets CC'd it's still a 50/50 scenario the same as naked voting so w/e

my issue is that there's 2 scum and if cop claims today we could probably just lynch scum today either by PoE (or guilty result) and then go into tomorrow 3v1 instead of guaranteed 3v2 with a no lynch

[rb]

i'd rather play to win than play to lynch 1 scum by no-lynching today

[rb]

because yer we have a 40% base chance of lynching scum now and it's a better chance tomorrow, but it means the next day is 2v1 lylo..

THEN AGAIn if we lynch scum today then tomorrow is still gonna be a no lynch to go from 3v1 to 2v1 because 2v1 means again a 50% chance of hitting scum just by not voting yourself as town

LEL okay i guess we can just no lynch it's the same shit end of the day, we lose tomorrow and still have to win in lylo regardless of what we do

[rb]

Sofiel, the_end, ssbm_Kyouko, RB

sofiel + the_end

i need to read on SSBM, no voting until I've done that

[rb]

the_end + ssbm are not a scumteam btw, if one of them flips red, don't lynch the other one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I say we massclaim popcorn style, Lucca picks who starts since he's conftown, and he also claims last because he's conftown, so if he's PR and scum try to fakeclaim we'll catch them because he claims last, unless a scum is the 2nd to last to claim then they'll know to claim vt, same if the team are the 2nd and 3rd from last to claim. Forgot earlier doc can clear his target in this setup. If we no kill Lucca just dies and we lose this chance to have a massclaim situation that is pretty good for town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually fuck popcorn style, have Lucca determine the order in which everyone will claim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

An alternative is we could have Lucca select a claim order for tomorrow and then we no lynch after that and massclaim in the order he chose in the morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But I feel like scum could manipulate that

[the_end]

Could you please explain again how claiming now is good for town?

If lucca is not a PR, and multiple people claim how will we know who is telling the truth? Assuming the scum fake claim and the actual PR also claims then tonight the PR is very likely going to get killed. Even if we get a scum lynch today we'd have to deal with an unknown scum tomorrow without a PR (and the knowledge of his night action). If a town fake claims to take the heat off the real PR then he's going to get suspected by the real PR claim and might possibly get lynched today, which means game over.

If we mislynch we lose. If we decide to have people claim then we have to lynch. A claim with no lynch means PR is likely going to get killed tonight for absolutely nothing.

I feel pushing for claim is something scum would do, because even if one of them gets lynched they have the upper hand and the PR is outed.

[Aeronaut]

actually we can no lynch i guess, right now it's 4v2 which means that simply by voting for any player not themselves, town have a 40% chance of hitting scum (if you know you're town there's 5 other players, 2 are scum = 40%)

if we no lynch it's 3v2 which means that simply by voting anyone not themselves, town have a 50% chance of hitting scum

But this doesn't make any sense bc we have lucca who now can't be protected.

the only caveat is that I think it's best if cop claims TODAY not tomorrow otherwise tomorrow is gonna be a fucking claimfest by scum

Couldn't it also be a tracker...?

[rb]

actually we can no lynch i guess, right now it's 4v2 which means that simply by voting for any player not themselves, town have a 40% chance of hitting scum (if you know you're town there's 5 other players, 2 are scum = 40%)

if we no lynch it's 3v2 which means that simply by voting anyone not themselves, town have a 50% chance of hitting scum

But this doesn't make any sense bc we have lucca who now can't be protected.

the only caveat is that I think it's best if cop claims TODAY not tomorrow otherwise tomorrow is gonna be a fucking claimfest by scum

Couldn't it also be a tracker...?

Is ur next comment gonna be that i scumslipped because if so pls dont bother

[rb]

And yeah, if lucca is conftown (i wasnt reading that closely) it's even better odds for town.

By simply not voting lucca then today is essentially same as 3v2 lylo. Scum will just kill lucca. So let's use today with lucca conftown and work rogether to get a good lynch.

Didnt realiae lucca was conftown, so we aren't no lynching today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Town doesn't fakeclaim to take the heat off the real PR, the point of claiming now is to either confirm a.second townie or make scum go 1v1 with the PR. If PR is not Lucca and we correctly lynch we'll still have a conftown tomorrow because scum can only kill one player

[lucca261]

Reading and posting right now. Let's go.

[lucca261]

I'm down to no lynch today but we should talk about scumreads first I think, or at least Lucca should make his opinions known

Right, my opinions:

Close to the deadline I was feeling more and more uncertain about Zekrom's lynch. Primarily, the fact that it wouldn't make sense for scum to bus him.

With a power role and a conftown already, regardless of which PR exists (Tracker or Cop), bussing in that situation would possibly give scum a D3 of 6 Players, 3 Conftowns and 3 Suspects, odds that were already pretty bad for scum.

I'm going to deliver a bigger readslist after some time, but for the time, if I had to guess the scumteam:

Sofiel and You.

Hi, I've had the flu and been in the ER since yesterday, and probably will be home tomorrowish.

I'm not sure abut a No Lynch at this point; I've got to relook at some of yesterday though, because I was pretty sure zeke was flipping red. Serves me right for being overconfident.

Basically No Lynching right now wouldn't be a smart play because we've now got a town-confirmed player in Lucca. All that no lynching is going to do is get him killed, which isn't helpful. Normally, I'd say we should so that we ended up with less options to choose from, but since we already have that, it doesn't make any sense to me.

Me dying would be that bad for town? We have a PR. If they target me would give the PR one more night to find something. In fact, I don't think me dying would be bad at all. They will be forced to kill me, and by doing that, they will probably give town a 66% shot at hitting scum on D4.

[lucca261]

the_end + ssbm are not a scumteam btw, if one of them flips red, don't lynch the other one

Why do you think that?

I say we massclaim popcorn style, Lucca picks who starts since he's conftown, and he also claims last because he's conftown, so if he's PR and scum try to fakeclaim we'll catch them because he claims last, unless a scum is the 2nd to last to claim then they'll know to claim vt, same if the team are the 2nd and 3rd from last to claim. Forgot earlier doc can clear his target in this setup. If we no kill Lucca just dies and we lose this chance to have a massclaim situation that is pretty good for town.

That could work. But now that you said it, no scum will be fakeclaiming because of the risk of me being the cop/tracker. If we get a claim, 90% percent it's actually a PR.

actually we can no lynch i guess, right now it's 4v2 which means that simply by voting for any player not themselves, town have a 40% chance of hitting scum (if you know you're town there's 5 other players, 2 are scum = 40%)

if we no lynch it's 3v2 which means that simply by voting anyone not themselves, town have a 50% chance of hitting scum

But this doesn't make any sense bc we have lucca who now can't be protected.

the only caveat is that I think it's best if cop claims TODAY not tomorrow otherwise tomorrow is gonna be a fucking claimfest by scum

Couldn't it also be a tracker...?

I think it is. If it was a cop, scum would have a roleblocker, so they could just roleblock Think, kill me, who is a confirmed town who has a shot of being a PR, and let Think as the roleblocked doctor.

Actually fuck popcorn style, have Lucca determine the order in which everyone will claim

If we do this, I want this order:

- Sofiel
- End
- Kyouko
- Aero
- RB
- Me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

That's the thing though, by claiming like this we discourage scum from fakeclaiming, and we'll either come out of this with 1or 2 conftown, or with the choice to lynch between 2 players. If there's a cop with a living innocent we may end up with even more conftown. Claiming is the play at this juncture, does anyone disagree?