Newbie 1767 | Winter | Endgame

[SensFan]

Sens, did you intend to hammer? Answer me, or you're going to wait Loopdan to answer and then sheep him?

Not until you forced my hand.

Asked by lucca and answered: intentionally messed up.

I didn't need to be hounded for anything. I explained what I did right away multiple times, the second one very explicitly. I just didn't go into a full novel about it because I didn't (and still don't) think it was worth that big of a discussion.

[SensFan]

I would also strongly object to your assessment that I was ever in a "life-or-death" situation. But it's not unusual for you to misrepresent what happened in the game.

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 2.09

Sobolev Space

(4):, SensFan, Huntress, Loopdan, TheBrie

lucca261

(1): Sickofit1138

SensFan

(1): lucca261

Not Voting

: Raskolnikov, Sobolev Space
With 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-01-22 06:30:00)

Notes:

lucca261 V/LA until 1/18

[Sobolev Space]

Some thoughts from most to least confident:
The Sensfan wagon wasn't that great. He has an abrasive playstyle which might have caused some people to think he's scum but overall seems interested in making plays and putting pressure on people - leans town. The explanation he provided for the early hammer in 449 seemed convincing and town is definitely benefitted when we have a norm to claim immediately after someone gives intent to hammer.

SickOfIt v Lucca reads like it could be TvS but I can't tell which is which. I was a bit worried when SickOfIt asked BP to claim during his entrance but posts since then have been more substantive. Post 447 by lucca looks like he's trying to get attention off himself while at the same time not take credit for the Sensfan wagon (with stuff like "PS: I'm still a boy lol" and "I think it will be like, interesting for me to put my vote here. Very interesting."). Selynee also had some questionable activity before being replaced by SickOfIt. I have scum leaning reads on both of these but doubt that they both are scum.

Agree with Loopdan that some of Rasks vote moving was weird and I think some of it is not wanting to be associated with a townie lynch on me or SensFan. Still a very hard player to read.

I don't know why everyone is reading TheBrie as newbtown. I think some of her early activity was pretty odd. Recently she's been slightly better but would like to see more positive content here.

Huntress I played with in my last game. Was very lurky in that game and this one. I assumed last game it was because she was bored being conftown so I'm disappointed to see it continue. Most of what she's said though I agree with.

Loopdan I also played with in my last game. He is also pretty hard to read. His content seems pretty beneficial to town but I'm worried because his posts seem more authoritative (stuff like the town block) compared to last game where he was more open ended. Makes me worried that we're being led around by a very clever scum. Too little info to tell so far though.

As to Frederick's activity. People seemed to be scumreading him for 1. Not posting actual content but just filler questions to appear active and 2. Misrepresenting other people's posts. I can agree with one but it was just newb townplay (I haven't reviewed his other game yet but I would guess he acts similar). I suspect he was nervous when he saw votes piling up on him and so felt forced to produce reads leading to his other questionable posts.

[Raskolnikov]

Now as for wagonomics and VCA shenanigans, ordinarily I'd dismiss them out of hand. I've found more often than not it's those kind of assumptions that create a "natural" tendency for town to self-destruct.

Could see it here though. Out of every player, I'm only convinced sickofit really knew what I was talking about and "followed" the train of thought. Which I guess is okay for those who were off (not following and being off seems consistent enough) but I'm not sure lucca fully understood what he was agreeing with when he l-1'd. Fred's stance is lost to time, newbies off-wagon is I can't fault I guess, loop and huntress as the experienced dismissed it pretty quick. I guess it's possible that I just read too far into it too rather than being the only sane/lucid person, either's happened before a few times now...

[SensFan]

lucca's L-1 post on me is atrocious. We can agree on that.

[Raskolnikov]

As for frederick, my problem with him was primarily shallow reads and inactivity.
Shallow reads I assume was the case because despite claims to the contrary, neither my nor anyone's questions were answered to any degree beyond one-liners. The only question then being if the shallow reads are from scum vs town; as for the meta on this even though he did the exact same thing as town he was cop in that game so I'm not sure if it even counts?
Inactivity is more of a statistical tell, lurking being bad up until replace at which point it becomes complicated. In a normal game I'd consider the reason for replacing... E.g. if someone says they're busy with work, replaces out all their games, in that case it's perfectly understandable and retroactively explains their inactivity; even if I thought the lurking was bad before that'd make it NAI. But here, there wasn't all that much reason for it, the timing coincided with being wagoned, and I think in newbie games statistically scum replace more often than town too. Overall a somewhat damning replace.

[Raskolnikov]

Sobolov, top scumread?

[Sobolev Space]

Would say lucca followed by SickOfIt (but not both). I've also got a lot of uncertainty about you, Loopdan, and TheBrie and could see lots of possible combinations between those two groups.

As to your point on Frederick, I can see what you mean about replacing out but it seems to me like he was just a new townie tired of being scum read. I've only played one game here so my evidence is just anecdotal, but in my game every single replacement out was a town player who got frustrated or who was bored. I've never seen scum replace out though so I can't really say how it would look any different from town replacing out.

[Raskolnikov]

Agree with Loopdan that some of Rasks vote moving

was weird

and I think some of it is not wanting to be associated with a townie lynch on me or SensFan. Still a very hard player to read.

I don't know why everyone is reading TheBrie as newbtown. I think some of her early activity was

pretty odd

. Recently she's been slightly better but would like to see more positive content here.

Yes, how weird. How odd. Can you say why?

Also I suppose you must know a lot about me if you can make conclusions about how easy or hard I am to read.

[Raskolnikov]

Makes me worried that we're being led around by a very clever scum.

Would say lucca followed by SickOfIt (but not both)

How does this work?

On one hand you express a fair bit of paranoia here but on the other you're not so much focusing on them SE/ICs.

[Raskolnikov]

I've also got a lot of uncertainty about you, Loopdan, and TheBrie

When I have uncertainty with people I do something about it.

[Sobolev Space]

Agree with Loopdan that some of Rasks vote moving

was weird

and I think some of it is not wanting to be associated with a townie lynch on me or SensFan. Still a very hard player to read.

I don't know why everyone is reading TheBrie as newbtown. I think some of her early activity was

pretty odd

. Recently she's been slightly better but would like to see more positive content here.

Yes, how weird. How odd. Can you say why?

Also I suppose you must know a lot about me if you can make conclusions about how easy or hard I am to read.

Sure, the part about your vote was referring to the fact that I feel you unvoted SensFan a bit prematurely and that you didn't re-vote for Frederick after this unvote.

I thought the odd parts of TheBrie's early posts were stuff like "Also being a dragon could make me unpredictable." in post 56. It seemed to me like a surface level attempt to endear her to us. Since it's tapered off she's looking townier but its certainly not a lock.

I said you're hard to read because your activity has been enough that you're posting decent content, but you've never really been the center of attention so far. When I was reading through the game Loopdan's 247 also made me look back and reevaluate my initial town read of you.

Makes me worried that we're being led around by a very clever scum.

Would say lucca followed by SickOfIt (but not both)

How does this work?

On one hand you express a fair bit of paranoia here but on the other you're not so much focusing on them SE/ICs.

Kinda taking me out of context in post 503 there. I said that referring specifically to the active role Loopdan has appeared to be taking. Overall I still think lucca and SickOfIt are most likely scum and Loopdan is a null - I was just saying its important to keep this possibility in mind as some people have seemed to write off Loopdan as for sure town.

[Raskolnikov]

Well, people can become the center of attention. It's not some natural uncontrollable phenomenon. I believe that's an excuse that only really works while one is not in a game.

[Raskolnikov]

Is there a reason you aren't voting either of your scumreads?

[Sickofit1138]

Yay space vote lucca with me

[Sobolev Space]

Well, people can become the center of attention. It's not some natural uncontrollable phenomenon. I believe that's an excuse that only really works while one is not in a game.

Fair enough. Remember I only said that in my initial reads list right after entering the game. For now I think post 510 by you did take out of context my quote from 503 a bit which is concerning and makes you lean scum but my reads on lucca/SickOfIt are stronger.

Is there a reason you aren't voting either of your scumreads?

Just that I don't have a strong enough read on them for it to translate into a vote. In my first game I also had trouble figuring out when your read on someone should become a vote. The best answer I got was that it depends on the player. I'm still figuring out my playstyle but I would say I'm pretty reserved. I would certainly be fine with a lynch on either of them today but would want to wait before casting a vote.

Logging off for the night since I have a fair amount of work. I have class all day tomorrow but should be around tomorrow afternoon to give more thoughts.

[Sickofit1138]

I would certainly be fine with a lynch on

lucca

today but would want to wait before casting a vote.

EBWOP

[Sickofit1138]

i would much rather lynch lucca then Soblev/Fred here. I dont feel that lynching soblev will result in a scum flip or even give as much information as a lucca ir sensfan lynch would.

[SensFan]

What information do you expect to gain from a lucca flip?
What about a Sens flip?

[Huntress]

So I put Fred at L-1. Then all hell breaks loose with accusations and votes moving around.

Yeah, I feel pretty good about the Fred wagon. If Fred is town I don't think the game loses focus off him like that. And if Fred flips scum, we need to examine the last couple pages Tomorrow.

Quoting myself because it is important.

I'm concerned with how Rask moved from Fred to Sens and then unvoted Sens shortly thereafter without moving back to Fred. With no stated read change on Fred.

I want to flip Fred.

Looking back I don't think the above really reflects what happened there. I think you're blowing it out of proportion a bit. It was a day later before any votes moved and I can see where Rask's vote was coming from, even though I thought it was misplaced. Not so sure about Sickofit's vote, although if he wanted a counterwagon he could have moved his vote earlier, or more probably stayed on lucca. And I think I can see where lucca is coming from too.

[Sickofit1138]

What information do you expect to gain from a lucca flip?
What about a Sens flip?

more especially the lucca wagon because of the general iffiness around it. If they flip town i think we can find the scum, and if they flip scum i bet we can find the other scum

[Huntress]

Hi Sobolev!

I was thinking of switching my vote to Loopdan but having read your posts, mainly 503, I think it's better where it is. Why try and make excuses for Fred? I know you're in the same slot but you can't know what he was thinking.

[TheBrie]

@Loopdan About what I said on Space's entrance. I realize that could be a bit confusing. Comment abou the 20 pages was relating to why the first post was insubstantial. I should have separated the second part. It was past when she said she would be caught up.
But I still think she's worth a chance.
UNVOTE:

[SensFan]

I assume that was aimed at me?