Mini 1869- camn's revenge GAME OVER!

[mastina]

Basically, why I feel the way I do:
The drealmerz wagon is one of the sketchiest wagons in the game. If there's any wagon comprised mostly of scum, it'd be this one. It was early-on and had no basis in reality.

The mastina wagon is driven by drealmerz and SirCakez. Basically nobody sane is scumreading drealmerz because the guy's obviously town. SirCakez is a bit of a tougher sell, I'll admit, but he's town, too. They are actually DRIVING the wagon. They're not leaving their votes there and doing nothing. They're consistently giving reasons as to why they are where they are. BTD6_maker has given reasons as well, albeit much much much weaker, which is why he's the weak link on that wagon.

The Nacho wagon was driven by me with reason. The person who gave the least amount of reason there was Gin. But Fate gave plenty of his reasons there. You might disagree with the quality, but he certainly wasn't just idling by and doing nothing with that vote. He put some effort into that push. You can disagree with the quality of the effort, but can't disagree that he was putting it in. So it was driven by town.

The Gin wagon was driven by Monokuma and me, with a side of Prism thrown in. My posts on the subject are obvious enough. So are Monokuma's. Prism's I remember as well, because Prism's early content focusing on Gin was what made me townread Prism initially. In hindsight, it's not as strong as the other two, but was there. Jin's reason for voting Gin? "Because in Hunger Games, Gin was a good scum player partnered with Pine, making them a good pick". Which...was a copy of my logic. That's why Jin's the most likely scum of the Gin wagon. (If Gin/Jin confuses you, you can always go the Japanese route and give a hard G, like Gin Ichimaru.)

The Fate wagon was driven not by Aeronaut, who just kinda started it. His reasoning? His literal first mention of Fate? The vote itself, where he declared, "Do stuff". Literally his reason for his current vote. And the wagon was also not driven by pisskop (Aristophanes), who blatantly jumped on. (The most you get in terms of reasoning? "congrats on picking on noncontent slots instead of ingame stuff". That was it.) Vaxkiller was one of the main proponents for it, as was Monokuma. This is one reason I find Vaxkiller less suspicious than others: he's actually driving the wagon. (He also made his reasons for suspecting me clear, which is why his switch onto me wasn't bad.) Prism, the late joiner giving a resurgence in the wagon, is also a weaker pusher there.

The Monokuma wagon has been driven by Nacho HARD, and also by Fate. We had a long spiel in thread recently where this was evident enough. The weakest votes there are Gin and Prism, who aren't as strong of drivers there.

There's a reasonably consistent trend there.
Nacho has pushed hard. I have pushed hard. Monokuma has pushed hard. drealmerz and SirCakez have pushed hard. Vaxkiller has pushed hard. Fate I say qualifies as having pushed, at least decently hard.
That leaves: BTD6_maker, Gin, Jin, Prism, Aeronaut, and Aristophanes.

And in there: Gin I am increasingly thinking is town.
BTD6_maker and Prism, while weaker town than they were, remain townish.

Aeronaut, Aristophanes, and Jin on the other hand...

[mastina]

have you commented on my alignment yet mastina

Sorta kinda.

[drealmerz7]

meanwhile...

mastina is voting aeronaut

[drealmerz7]

I had to go check :þ

[mastina]

And to think I'm not even in serious pushing mode yet.
Though I suppose you could consider my current content to be churning up the gears and getting slowly ready for it.

[Fate]

The fact htat monokuma actually tried to find reasons (which were terrible) really shows how she has a scum mindset

Thanks for pointing that out

[mastina]

meanwhile...mastina is voting aeronaut

Yes which makes me one of only two people to have voted scum thusfar this game, if memory serves me. (The other is TheRealGin-N-Tonic.) And the only one who currently is voting scum for that matter.

[Aeronaut]

this is painful to read

What I'm gaining is this is going in circles and Nacho and you aren't going to be convinced Mono is town

What I'm gaining is this is going in circles and Nacho and you aren't going to be convinced Mono is town

What Mono argument do you find compelling?
Let's talk about it!

Or, alternatively, can you tell me how Mono expected Fate to follow up with Pine's answer?

Or, alternatively, can you tell me with a straight face that Fate asking a question to Pine is equivalent with Gin's buddy buddy interactions with Pine?

I've been skimming honestly, it all started blending together
A concise explanation of your read on Mono would be awesome

SC complains about the thread being unreadable and the argument being circular instead of doing something, but then when Nacho engages him, he says he's been skimming and can't really answer. Sircakez is not trying to solve the game.

Oh. And we've received a communication from a reliable source (us) that a certain player (who reminds us of a dessert) is not, in fact, guilty at all!!! That player might even be...

TOWN!!!

The dessert, not us. But we're town too. Just not a dessert. Unless you count how our pillowy softness can be likened to a delicious marshmallow.

What, because he town reads you? Can you explain this?

Mastin if you're guaranteeing Pine made optimal picks based on your meta knowledge of him then we need to lynch Nacho and no one but Nacho until Nachos dead

Lynching Nacho is so sad though.

Mastina, I love the coloured avatar!

I keep waiting for Ari to post something indicative of anything, but it keeps not having happened.

....we're going in circles

Yes, and it's a closed circle, comprised of two binaries:
Pine either made wifom picks, or optimal picks. Binary number one.
We can either choose to enter the wifom game and try to figure out the above, or we can ignore the wifom game altogether. Binary number two.

If we enter the wifom game and try to figure out the first binary, I am telling you that Pine made the optimal picks.
If we choose to ignore the wifom game altogether, then I am telling you to assume Pine made the optimal picks, because that's what fucking ignoring the wifom game entails.

You can't go "but Pine could have picked the wifom picks!" without entering into the wifom game.
Ignoring the wifom game is therefore assuming...Pine picked the optimal picks.
But if you choose to enter into the wifom game...I am telling you the answer is Pine picked the optimal picks rather than the wifom picks.

So regardless of whether you enter into the wifom game, or whether you ignore the wifom game...the answer here is to assume...Pine picked the optimal choices.

Really not that hard to understand.

Your reasoning is flawed. It can be used to explain that it is more likely that Pine picked optimal picks but not guarantee it. What stops someone from entering the WIFOM game and then coming to the conclusion that Pine made WIFOM picks?

I can explain this using an analogy from the wiki:

When chasing down a dangerous criminal, a policeman comes to a fork in the road. To the left is a dark alleyway where the criminal would have a moderate chance of escaping (even if the cop correctly follows him that direction) (I am assuming 50% chance of getting caught here). To the right is a well-lit boulevard where the criminal would surely be caught. The policeman doesn't know which way the criminal went. If he guesses wrong, the criminal will easily make a clean getaway.
If you were the criminal, which way would you go?
If you were the policeman, which way would you guess the criminal went?

The correct answer is for the criminal to run through the alleyway 2/3 of the time and the boulevard 1/3 of the time and for the policeman to do the same.

Likewise, assuming Pine plays optimally, Pine should have a chance greater than random of making optimal picks (as, ignoring the fact that Pine drafted the team, optimal picks are more likely to win) but have a chance of making WIFOM picks.

(The other examples can be analysed similarly and give similar results, though the one about who to kill out of the innocent, lynchbait, and thinker is a false dichotimy - or in this case a trichotomy - that ignores the possibility that you No Kill).

Ok, you're right, but I don't understand why you're still having this argument with Mastina and nothing else. Do you really think that her being wrong about how WIFOM works has anything to do with her alignment?

First off, Pisskop was the beginning slot, he started out the game and continued the pattern of fluffing and frivolous shit posting. When he did post, there wasn't reasoning attached to it, all of them were baseless and were said to just be said.

It also doesn't help that the slot replacement, Ari can't play scum to save his life, in essence making it a suicide slot. The quotes I put in a spoiler, and really they are all his ISO, is literally no game contribution and doesn't address anyone game related.

Also a quick VCA is that scum will disperse their votes to hide in the crowd, so there will be 1/2 in the main wagons and 1/2 in a slot that's been voted once or they are the only vote. Now, looking at the babywagons that happened in D1, the beginning started with dreal and Fate.

Looking at that, Pisskop gave a weak reason which was really a hesitant question more than accusation and put his vote on dreal. The vote only moved from dreal to Fate and this occurred when Pisskop said, Fate was his top scum read, but again, there was no explanation attached to it, essentially making it a naked vote because it is knowingly implied that if you vote someone, it is because you think they are scum.

I am almost 100% confident that Pisskop has been staying off of the main wagons to avoid any serious attention and shitpost so you think to just ignore him.

VOTE: Aristophanes

Ok, while you could be right about ari being scum since at the time of this post, he's still contributed nothing, most of your case above is on Pisskop, and I don't know if you've played with pisskop, but what you've described is just what he does regardless of alignment.

Hey if you need to buy any tickets, I got a great site for ya.
https://www.busbuster.com/en/carriers/g ... hgodmygBWA

Hahahahahaha

At this point we know Ari is 100% scum. There is no need not to vote this guy up. Mastin is town simple as that.

Look, Mastin is one of those that you require to use over half of the entire tool belt to lynch and those tools can't be used until flips have been made later down the road. That's what you get for being experienced as scum. However it's pretty clear she'll be killed N1 or N2, after that, it's worth taking into consideration...

I simply don't understand the value of going on a possible mislynch over a conf!scum lynch.

Um, what? How did we go from "Ari isn't posting anything significant, and therefore is scum" to "Ari is confscum"?

UNVOTE:

What in Ari's two posts of catchup made you unvote confirmed scum?

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Aero, I will not answer questions I have already answered. You may continue to read the thread to find your enlightenment if you wish.

[Aeronaut]

Cakez, you can stop trying to discredit my push as it is still very much there.

You can ask almost anyone in the playerlist, and Ari himself which I can quote him saying IN THIS GAME, that he can't play scum at all and won't post in-game content. It's a rare situation to call someone conf!scum based on their meta, and Ari might be able to help me out here, but there was a game where he replaced in as scum and was the perfect example of what I'm talking about. It's just part of Ari and it's a singular case that wouldn't normally apply to someone else.

Also, once Ari said he'd be going through the thread, which he started doing, I saw content, opinions being formed, so naturally this heavily tilts the read on that slot. Now, Ari has to keep it up because I will be hounding him for content and if he's scum, he'll break.

Ok, so in your eyes, couldn't Ari have read your case on him and decided to produce content, then? Are you assuming he's town as long as he's posting something game-wise?

[Aeronaut]

Aero, I will not answer questions I have already answered. You may continue to read the thread to find your enlightenment if you wish.

Gin, are you trying to push Ari because you think he's scum, or because you want to sort him? There's a difference.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Read.......... The thread I fucking said I respected him enough to give him time to prove me wrong. Do you not see the fucking countdown I established?

After that time is up I'm ISOing him and ripping it to shreds and whatever is left will be the result. Not the fucking hard to read Aero

[SirCakez]

Aero I went back and reread the game and then gave my opinion to try to shut down the bad Monokuma wagon. That's most certainly not doing nothing.
Try harder to throw shade.

[Aristophanes]

Don't you mean Obiwan Ginobi?

I meant Qui Gon Gin actually, but we'll done!

[Aristophanes]

But this right here? Original Amished tell in its finest form.

Honestly, I wrote that, said to myself "this will be construed as an Amished tell even though I'm just addressing the case above" and decided Fukit! Lets go!

[Aristophanes]

You're not.
I'm voting Aeronaut, who was not listed on that wall.
Secret Agent Jin is my tertiary suspect, and was not listed on that wall. (Jin, unlike the other two, remains purely a POE scumread.)

Right. I knew that. Forgot you have a hard on for an Aero lynch.

Your analysis is nice, but it's all wrong. I don't know what else to tell you.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Ari, what have you done that you would say furthered a town agenda?

[Aeronaut]

Yawn. Entertain me, mortals.

Heyo let's all come along,
Let us gather to hear this song,
It is a tale told far and wide,
About the scumfuck known as Pine.

He came to violate our dear camn,
To ruin her carefully concocted plan,
But here the forces of good will fight,
To destroy the evil known as Pine.

Heyo, let's all sing this song,
And in the process dump our thoughts,
To ask what we see and why,
To see through deceit and lies.

I say his ally is the yellow mouse,
His treachery shouldn't be allowed,
We should not allow him or his kind,
So full of their deceit and lies.

Heyo, let's keep going strong,
Don't be tempted to go wrong,
We're all here with a purpose to find,
Those that were corrupted by Pine.

Among their ranks is Aristophanes,
Who'd be a great lynch on this day,
I say that ending would be fine,
As it would so be damaging to Pine.

Heyo, let's lynch the Aeronaut,
Or maybe Agent Jin if not,
I say this with a sigh,
Don't be corrupted by their lies.

We can be a complacent lot,
So don't let our dear town rot,
Please I beg you to hear my cry,
You've fallen victim to deceit and lies.

This tale should not end here,
And that is my greatest fear,
That soon I will not be alive,
And you'll fall victim to the Pine.

*snaps*

And? I'm pretty sure that's what most of this game thinks, since it's you know, common sense.
Yep, I'm the only one who thinks we shouldn't let a game designed to fuck with us fuck with us, obviously. That's why nacho is the leading wagon, right?

Mafia exercise time.

This is a really fun one, I promise you.

Who here can spot the problematic nature of these two statements being placed back-to-back?

There's something very glaringly obvious in here. I could tell you at any time, but I want you to think for a sec, stretch your minds, and see if you're capable of figuring it out for yourselves.

I'm fairly certain the second half of this post is sarcastic. Like, I'd bet on that. Did you not catch that or did I miss something else in my reading of it?

I'm aware of Aeronaut being sarcastic. It's what the sarcasm is saying which contributes to the problem. The sarcasm, translated into non-sarcastic language, says, "Everyone knows this, and nobody's listened".

In the second bit? No, it translates to please stop pushing Nacho using setup spec reasoning, because it was just making you silly and tunnely. And look, it worked. You're not quibbling with us about setup spec like you're in a newbie game and actually starting to play the game instead.

The entirety of #710 is pretty manufactured-sounding. It's mostly some very weak reasons for SRing Fate and then him justifying the switch from drealz with more silly bullshit.

Does anyone actually believe that Fate is town? All he has been doing is spreading miss-information, providing horrible reasons for his voting 418 432 Hes not even reading the thread 350 604!

Asks questions, but refuses to answer small legitimate ones asked of him: 577 578 579 580. All this translates to scum, and hes having a blast doing it. I'm having fun with this game too, but I can guarantee the scum are having even more fun.

Here Vax is absolutely appalled that anyone could think fate is town, what are we all doing?! Most of Vax's reasoning here is that Fate isn't reading the thread, and is therefore scum, which is at most anti-town.

Wait is camn allowed to post freely too or is that just flavor <_<

Worried?

Here he is commenting on a fluff post as if it's AI

Pine's tellign the truth here


Whichis exactly what I said

Nacho first round scum pick

Fate second round town pick

???

profit

You modified this a bit, and your using fate to defend yourself?

Nacho was a first round pick, Fate. You were a second round pick.

Hate to burst your bubble.

I know I said this before but post 628 reeks of someone thinking of a great joke, but has to wait for the right moment, when the blurt it out all the sudden and it sounds super rehearsed, like they have been waiting to say it for soooo long. As soon as you rolled scum you thought of this right?


VOTE: Fate
I still want dreal dead, once fate flips maybe more people will believe my dreal case.

Also, him asserting that 628 or really any of Fate's postings this game is

too rehearsed

and that's why fate is a really, really, silly accusation to make about fate, who I'm 90% sure just types letters and lets it autocorrect into words into this thread. Like, there's probably a lot of reasons that fate could be scum in this game, but rehearsed posts is not one of them.

I also dislike how he immediately feels the need to justify it, and when you think about it, this justification makes no sense; fate flipping scum would not make drealz seem any more scum worthy anyone, especially since fate has minimal interaction with him besides calling him scum. If anything, a drealz wagon could get marginally more traction if fate flipped town, but even then , nah. So this justification is shit, and this case is shit.

This post is really interesting. Before I give my thoughts, Aero, can you tell me why fate is scum to you?

As far as I've seen, he's not trying to solve the game, he's more just waffling around. Recently he's had a few more solidified reads on people, but even then it's minimal and not what I really thought I'd see from one of the top three people that mastina thinks should have been first round picks.

Having said that, most of the others who followed me onto this wagon did it for bad to no reasoning, so it's making me second guess it entirely.

As for why my vote's stayed the same, it's because I haven't finished reading unfortunately.

[Aristophanes]

Ari, what have you done that you would say furthered a town agenda?

I don't have an agenda, but nice try.

I have made an effort. I don't do this as scum. I don't read back as scum, except to Iso my buddies and my selected easy pushes. I don't look for context, I look for scum tells.

Therefore by making the effort to situate myself in the game, gain reads, and interact with both those townreading and scumreading me, I have helped the town.

If it does not suffice, that speaks to the quality of my play, not to my alignment.

[Aeronaut]

Actually, that brings me to a good point.

@Mastina,

how extensive is your history with fate, and barring setup spec, what do you think of him this game?

[Aeronaut]

{mastina, Nacho}
{dreal, Fate}
{Prism, SirCakez}
{Secret Agent Jin, Aeronaut}
{Vax, BTD6, Monkuma, Ari}
{}

SAJ, Ari, Monkuma, and BTD6 are my lynch pool of the day

Why aren't I in that lynchpool if Jin is? And why isn't Vax there if we are?

@mastina
You con'd yourself with that post.

VOTE: mastina

Dreal, assuming mastina flips scum, you are likely town. Help me lynch fate tomorrow.

If she somehow flips town, your town read goes out the window, and I'm sure you will have some excuse for not voting fate.

How? Why couldn't they be both town?

why the literal fuck is theres still a mastina wagon

If we have a multi shot vig FIRE BOMB THAT WAGON AND GAME OVER

This

The drealmerz wagon is one of the sketchiest wagons in the game. If there's any wagon comprised mostly of scum, it'd be this one. It was early-on and had no basis in reality.

If it's early on, doesn't no basis in reality make a lot of sense?

The Fate wagon was driven not by Aeronaut, who just kinda started it. His reasoning? His literal first mention of Fate? The vote itself, where he declared, "Do stuff". Literally his reason for his current vote. And the wagon was also not driven by pisskop (Aristophanes), who blatantly jumped on. (The most you get in terms of reasoning? "congrats on picking on noncontent slots instead of ingame stuff". That was it.) Vaxkiller was one of the main proponents for it, as was Monokuma. This is one reason I find Vaxkiller less suspicious than others: he's actually driving the wagon. (He also made his reasons for suspecting me clear, which is why his switch onto me wasn't bad.) Prism, the late joiner giving a resurgence in the wagon, is also a weaker pusher there.

To be fair, I voted fate, got the flu, and then did a catchup. That's not quite the same.

Aero I went back and reread the game and then gave my opinion to try to shut down the bad Monokuma wagon. That's most certainly not doing nothing.
Try harder to throw shade.

Yeah, but you spent most of the day doing fuck all, and that's my issue. Generally I always find that people that spend the whole time complaining about how the game is either too long or too noisy or too hard to get anything from aren't trying that hard and are probably scum to begin with.

[Aeronaut]

Alright, I'm finished.

VOTE: Sircakes

[Aeronaut]

{Mastina, Nachomamma8}
{drealmerz7}
{TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Prism}
{Monokuma, BTD6_MAKER, Jin}
{Fate, Aristophanes}
{SirCakez, Vaxkiller}

[mastina]

No, it translates to please stop pushing Nacho using setup spec reasoning, because it was just making you silly and tunnely. And look, it worked. You're not quibbling with us about setup spec like you're in a newbie game and actually starting to play the game instead.

One, taking credit for something you had fuckall to do with, and two, still doesn't negate the issue there. Also, can I point out the irony in you claiming this in the same post you also mention this?

Recently he's had a few more solidified reads on people, but even then it's minimal and

not what I really thought I'd see from one of the top three people that mastina thinks should have been first round picks.

(I mean there's more wrong in this post than just that which makes Aero scum, butstill, this should nicely highlight some interesting shit about Aeronaut.)

[Aeronaut]

No, it translates to please stop pushing Nacho using setup spec reasoning, because it was just making you silly and tunnely. And look, it worked. You're not quibbling with us about setup spec like you're in a newbie game and actually starting to play the game instead.

One, taking credit for something you had fuckall to do with, and two, still doesn't negate the issue there. Also, can I point out the irony in you claiming this in the same post you also mention this?

Recently he's had a few more solidified reads on people, but even then it's minimal and

not what I really thought I'd see from one of the top three people that mastina thinks should have been first round picks.

(I mean there's more wrong in this post than just that which makes Aero scum, butstill, this should nicely highlight some interesting shit about Aeronaut.)

e.g. you think that because they're probably good players.

Man playing a game with Mastina is like playing a game with Titus.