Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[I Am Innocent]

Off to lunch, I'll be around to check where we are at when I get back.

[Dierfire]

I think that Aj The Epic has four votes and Kairal has three. That makes my decision straightforward, at least (although I won't say "easy").
I'm reading Aj The Epic as Town, and I'm expecting a Town flip, but I don't think that the read is strong enough to justify passing on the lynch.

It really burns me to do it.

VOTE: Aj The Epic

[Naomi-Tan]

Thats hammer.

[Naomi-Tan]

I think that Aj The Epic has four votes and Kairal has three. That makes my decision straightforward, at least (although I won't say "easy").
I'm reading Aj The Epic as Town, and I'm expecting a Town flip, but I don't think that the read is strong enough to justify passing on the lynch.

It really burns me to do it.

VOTE: Aj The Epic

Im just about reading them Green. So Im kinda excited. there Very boarder line for me. just edging out of the slot with a few good posts.

[massive]

Things I want in the thread for tomorrow:

Kairal - AJ might be a thing (289-293)

Still believe one of { Flubber, Kairal } is scum based on 1.07.

culted and dierfire don't go together - 275

---

VCA should be interesting tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith0 will be

taking care of yall until Tuesday

, as I'm going out of town

I am told that there was a lynch. Eyeballing the posts from the recent unofficial voting counts it looks like

VC 3.Final

0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
3 - Kairal: Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
0 - culted:
0 - massive:
5 (LYNCH) - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent, Naomi-Tan, Dierfire

Not voting: massive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

The thread is now LOCKED. STOP POSTING.

If I made a mistake, please PM me IMMEDIATELY. Otherwise thread is closed and night has fallen. Similar to last time, Gamma did not actually tell me who had what role, but since I believe I'm now actually backup mod instead of just helper, I ask that everyone PM me their alignment and role so that I know who is who. Some time after I receive PMs from EVERYONE, I will start the actual night clock.

[mhsmith0]

Update: I do not currently know everyone's role/alignment. As such, there is no flip to post and night action clock has not started.

[mhsmith0]

AJ The Epic was lynched! He was

Spoiler:

Mafia Role Cop

Night three deadline is Tuesday January 17, 12 PM PST. (expired on 2017-01-17 13:00:00)

Remember to PM me and Gamma Emerald all intended night actions.

[Gamma Emerald]

I have returned

[Gamma Emerald]

BlackVoid was killed Night 3. He was a

Vanilla Townie

[I Am Innocent]

Yeah it is still culted + one of flubber/dierfire.

vote culted

[I Am Innocent]

Dierfire, can we talk? I'm pretty convinced you're town at this point and I want to talk about Shadow_step. Specifically with his last post, I'm completely comfortable dropping a scum read on him.

First things off, we got 25 post iso, two of which are pretty much introduction jokes stuff, from a slot that's been here since Day 1 (halfway through). CK still has 3x as much. It wouldn't be so bad if they were full of content, but here's the highest content post he has:

What's up with the IaI vote, Shadow? I don't think you've said anything about him prior.

Reaction test.

I've developed no reads in this games by interacting with other players.
I thought town was going in the correct direction so I just sheeped my town reads basically, the Hello flip just baffled me. Even the way the claimed I couldn't believe it at all. It seemed like it was a last ditch attempt at drawing a CC.
Been pretty crap by my own standards, so I wanted to see how he reacts and how other do to it.

(Now I must confess I can't use the 'post' command. Bare with me)

Spoiler:

• Alright so the first 'real' catchup post is 355, where he states Grey seems upset over losing a 'mislynch' in Grey's spot. It's unspoken, but this suggests Shadow is scumreading Grey here.
  
  
• His next real post is 670, which basically calls Io on her vote for me. By this time, I had called it, as had Kairal (255) and Dierfire (275). Granted, Shadow hadn't replaced in yes (replaces in p345) but the post (167) isn't so far in front of these to not see them, especially mine which came literally the next page. Even then, there has been a lot to happen up until 167 (specifically with CK slot, which he now reads from his conf-alignment view) and doesn't respond to any of it whatsoever. Either he's realized that it isn't particularly relevant for whatever reason (it still was as of 167) or he didn't respond to it for...???
  
  
• 677 Shadow calls Grey scum. As of this post, his vote is still on MDS, but does not move the vote. He's still on his re-read since the respond is Grey's 375. Realizes two posts later Grey was playing a game here. Specifically I find this weird for a few reasons. I think naturally Shadow would unvote MDS IF HE BELIEVED THE LOGIC he uses in 677 (game got a lot easier w/mod confirmed shit). MDS shares alignment, right? Grey's scum complaining about free pass? Natural progression says that vote moves and then comes off in 681 when he reads through the entire sequence.
  
  
• So in 683 we can assume Grey scumread is dropped. Replaces with Newman/Io scumreads. No reason given, votes Newman. Doesn't post at all during Io run up and eventual lynch. Votes off D2 with an IAI vote, who had L-1 on Io, his scum read. No explanation here, it's that awkward re-RVS stage that happened early D2. When called on it, it's the quoted post above (reaction test, no reads...).
  
  
• There's a question put out to massive (p903) (why did he revote newman after claim) but no attempts to revote even after response. Just two irrelevant questions and then 8 IRL days inactivity, coming back with his first interaction with Kairal, asking if Shadow was next on the mislynch list. This:
  

  I think the main thing I want right now is to see a bit more from Shadow.

  Is Kairal's part of the post that prompted Shadow saying:
  

  So it seems I'm your next ml target Kairal?
  I'l get caught up during the weekend.
  Meanwhile what is everyone's read on Kairal?

  It's a pretty severe overreaction. He hasn't mentioned Kairal at all before this post, and suddenly wants 'everyone's read on kairal' for suggesting (completely correctly) that we need to hear more from Shadow. Even considering the longass night 2, it had been just under 80 posts and Shadow at this point had little to no content.
  
  
• 1010 where he highlights the earliest parts of Grey's iso to apparently strike up something against me, even labeling it 'important posts from grey's iso' and then fails to commentate on it at all. All posts are the first 1/6th of Grey's iso, nothing towards later stages.

The issue is we've got no content and the only 2 held reads by Shadow both flipped town. Shadow's overreaction to Kairal and then inability to push anything towards me even though his motives obviously suggest he's thinking about it. I'm slightly baffled by 1010 because I think it's so bad that I can't imagine someone actually trying that as either alignment. Literally the definition of throwing shade, since he wouldn't even VOTE off of it.

VOTE: Shadow_step

I still want to know why you think this slot is town, because there's literally nothing in Shadow's iso to prove it. I'm also pretty sure he's still not caught up, because in one of his posts in the 800 range, he quoted a post from Jhin from the 370 range. This was D2, so he obviously had TIME to read through, but just opted not to. This game is one of the shortest games you could replace into and he didn't get through that.

Pre-Massive claim. No need to rush out and bus a teammate early D3. More reason Naomi is prob not scum.

[I Am Innocent]

Before we start: I'm not saying you manipulated the results so much as manufactured them and that the method couldn't produce anything useful if it was able to produce anything at all.

So let me preface this continuation with the following note: The only way I see Kairal doing this as town is having these reads before hand and for whatever reason trying to justify them with handwaving as to not look completely out of place. It... doesn't make a lot of sense to me why he'd do it this way. Here's the thing: One of the major reasons I've townread Kairal for so long is his reads have been fluid, have had natural progression and have made sense, even if they're a bit weak or somewhat waffled (kairal gets talked out of a lot of shit that he really shouldn't...). Especially since kairal wouldn't have a read jump on flubber if it were predetermined. Ergo read the rest of this post with kairal!scum as the control.

My biggest question is why does Kairal keep flubber's read scum after this? We know the two options: Bus, Mislynch. I think bus can make sense here but mislynch lends to a more advantageous scum motive. Kairal scumreads both me and Naomi. At this point, had he decided, he could've convinced massive/myself rather easily to buy into Naomi before Flubber. That scenario assumes Naomi is town to pass the lynch off in the first place. If Flubber was scum with Kairal, Kairal could attempt to drag him into lylo. Course... it doesn't do much, I think Kairal/Flubber would be the next two lynches.

It'd actually have been more natural for Kairal to continue a scum read of flubber from beginning to end in a hard bus. Be adamant about the lynch, gain the most town points. Doing this casts a ton of suspicion on Kairal. And really, removing Culted/IAI/Massive from her scumread list is a lot easier than going through this theatrical display. If Flubber was truly scum, this is a hard lynch to drop under any circumstance for a scum partner. Yet there are, as stated above, ways to do it. If he's town, Kairal could fumble on it, be insecure and not look super gung-ho on the lynch going into lylo for two lynches in a row that just look strange.

The drop of culted as a scum read in and of itself isn't awful. Well. Depends on your definition. Culted had been pressuring kairal pretty hard recently, and IaI, one of Kairal's other beginning scum reads, was/is pressing culted and it seems those two probably don't share an alignment. Had Kairal stated one of the two to be scum, it makes more sense. Picking a side that he believes is probably more useful to the town because it's an opinion and it's someone arguing for/against what's happening. Instead, from the looks of things, Kairal is seeing the entire thing as TvT. The piece of this that's important is culted had started to slip into the null area for a lot of people but IaI so it'd be pretty easy to bust out an easy town read. Is it possible to town read culted? Sure, but I think it's pertinent in 'reaccessing' reads to at least address IaI's point on that. In a way, this read change both follows Kairal's trend of being incredibly easy to persuade but also breaks the mold by not having really put a lot of consideration into it (as I'd argue the entire theory followed suit).

P-edit: Even with it being a response about culted's reads, it doesn't change the fact that culted has been completely dropped from Kairal's scum reads.

As far as I know, Naomi wasn't a strong scum read of Culted prior to this. I've mentioned this is odd that Kairal scumreads both Naomi and I (since we've done nothing but argue with me scumreading her, and my read on CK/Shadow/Naomi has been NAI to scum most of the game). Kairal amends it that he thinks it's TvS in 1467, but does little to explain why or who's the extra person. In fact, it's another written-in mislynch that he ADMITS to. A day away from Lylo he's giving himself a mislynch chance on a 50/50. Let's go back to Flubber being innocent for a moment. IF flubber is innocent, LYLO occurs tomorrow and scum have 3 of the 4 remaining. More than likely, they'd take that bet at a 50/50 between Naomi and I and pull ahead. Hell, they'd only need one person to vote me and then win it, so it's not really a 50/50.

More importantly, Kairal's done zilch for scumreading me all game and only started scumreading Naomi for the short period of time when Shadow came after her to naomi's replace in. And we're to believe off this method he's got a scumread strong enough to believe it on not even full VCA.

If I had to guess, Kairal's indication shows Culted scum, Naomi scum, himself scum. Naomi is biased on my own read of her but unless I'm going to read Dierfire as scum, who's basically unmentioned and a consistent town read of mine, there's not a lot that makes sense from this perspective. Flubber could be scum here and it could just be a poorly executed bus/someone that scum has determined to not live through lylo either. The one flaw is Shadow did toss some shade at Kairal, which doesn't make a hell of a lot of sense, though it wasn't followed by a case nor vote so it was just shade. But between this, the Jin incident and some inconsistencies we've seen from Kairal today, I think this is it.

Culted/Kairal/Naomi|Flubber.

VOTE: Kairal

Ultimately though regardless of the method I've landed exactly on who Aj and Naomi claim is their top scum read. Neither of you have any reason to complain about that... if you're town.

...No? My top scum read was Naomi going in. And DAMN RIGHT I have issues with how you got here.

So in these kind of situations, it becomes dangerous for the town to just continue using past philosophy. We've effectively had three lynches (I'm considering Newman a lynch protected by a role claim) and missed on all three. Obviously we're not thinking this through right.

IaI, you questioned us all on our want to lynch Dierfire. Outside of Ehable, is there any specific reason? Also, with the Jin vote the only thing I saw in your ISO was that you weren't happy with his joke vote (Which Grey did the post prior). Was it just second on the list/best remaining option?

FWIW I completely agree with Massive that the hammer by Kairal did NOT need to happen, but I've been townreading Kairal as essentially a confirmed town member.

Not feeling a massive lynch anymore. Especially now that it seems like it'd be too easy to push, this is exactly where I'd warn against seeing a wagon form unless we have good reason. Think I'd prefer to look around CK's slot again as Shadowstep's done literally nothing with it since replacing in. We need to hear more from culted because my initial town read is basically stale on that slot (Culted almost didn't post yesterday).

I think looking towards Dier (depending on IaI's response)/Flubber/Shadow area might be best for today. Looking towards, not wagoning. We have two weeks, apathy aside we should burn a decent portion of it.

Kairal's still solidly town. It's gonna take more than mild shade throwing to change that for me.

Does AJ switch a read on a team member from nearly confirmed town to bus? I doubt it, esp since it would mean I'm wrong about at least 2 of the following (culted, flubber, dier), the former 2 would be easy mislynches. So yeah, Kairal is most likely town too.

[massive]

There's a lot that happens between the 900s and when AJ flips on Kairal. I'm not saying I don't disagree, but I don't think ruling it out makes sense at this point. I know when I was reading along, the read change seemed like it progressed naturally.

(Granted, I may have some confbias because of Kairal.)

[I Am Innocent]

There's a lot that happens between the 900s and when AJ flips on Kairal. I'm not saying I don't disagree, but I don't think ruling it out makes sense at this point. I know when I was reading along, the read change seemed like it progressed naturally.

(Granted, I may have some confbias because of Kairal.)

So why would a team with scum Kairal kill BV before you? They wouldn't. BV was strong town reading Kairal and strong scum reading culted. My guess is those are both right.

[massive]

So why would a team with scum Kairal kill BV before you?

There are still people who don't necessarily believe my claim. I think either way you look at me, BV was definitely confirmed. Could Kairal say "I think I can try and push massive today, Naomi will bite, we only need a couple more"? Maybe. But I think ultimately it was going to be BV one night, me the other, and ultimately it doesn't matter because I don't get another investigate until N4. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but I think I could WIFOM up some alternate answers.

[Dierfire]

VOTE: culted

I definitely wouldn't want to lynch Kairal at this point; that read feels good to me and my main suspects were voting for Kairal with Aj The Epic.
Similarly, my read on I Am Innocent and Naomi-Tan is strengthened by the lynch. I might perhaps reassess Naomi-Tan if we get another Mafia flip with one of the roles from the list in 1191, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere.

[I Am Innocent]

So why would a team with scum Kairal kill BV before you?

There are still people who don't necessarily believe my claim. I think either way you look at me, BV was definitely confirmed. Could Kairal say "I think I can try and push massive today, Naomi will bite, we only need a couple more"? Maybe. But I think ultimately it was going to be BV one night, me the other, and ultimately it doesn't matter because I don't get another investigate until N4. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but I think I could WIFOM up some alternate answers.

Sorry, but I never buy into WIFOM for night kills. Scum do what is best for them (and then hides behind WIFOM talk), so Scum Kairal or a team that does not include Culted leaves BV alive. Like you said, one of you was going to go N3 and one N4, the order then comes down to what is best for scum.

[massive]

So you guys need to sell the town that this:

5 (LYNCH) - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent, Naomi-Tan, Dierfire

was all town. I personally find it highly unlikely.

[Dierfire]

I could perhaps see one Mafia player there, but two would be unlikely. Therefore I believe that we will have a higher density of Mafia players on the Kairal wagon than on the Aj The Epic wagon.

[massive]

Sure, but that wagon at its height was me (town), AJ (scum), Flubber, culted. If you think one scum is on AJ then that means one scum left on Kairal. And it also means that you think Kairal is town. So is IAMI scum?

[Dierfire]

I don't think so, but maybe!
I think that Flubbernugget and culted have higher chances to be Mafia than anyone on the Aj The Epic wagon. I Am Innocent or Naomi-Tan might be Mafia under certain circumstances (my choice will be particularly difficult if I see culted flip Mafia Encryptor, for example).

[massive]

AJ tries to start the wagon on Shadowstep (now Naomi) in 1014, another point in town-Naomi's favor. It's not a counterwagon, it's right at the beginning of D3, no one else has really voted up to that point.

Now put that in context with this:

Other than that, I'm thinking it's Shadow, Flubber, and one of Massive|MDS.

Scum have a habit of putting a scumbuddy into their scumlists, which would point to Flubber. Prior to this, AJ doesn't interact directly with Flubber much, but does namedrop him in a lot of spots as a scumread without really providing a reason and using him in a lot of arguments why other people are scum.

I'm still going through AJ's ISO but I'm likely to push Flubber here.

[Naomi-Tan]

VOTE: culted

I definitely wouldn't want to lynch Kairal at this point; that read feels good to me and my main suspects were voting for Kairal with Aj The Epic.
Similarly, my read on I Am Innocent and Naomi-Tan is strengthened by the lynch. I might perhaps reassess Naomi-Tan if we get another Mafia flip with one of the roles from the list in 1191, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere.

Why would a red team member out all of the PR's of their team? wouldn't that be counter productive?

[Naomi-Tan]

So you guys need to sell the town that this:

5 (LYNCH) - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent, Naomi-Tan, Dierfire

was all town. I personally find it highly unlikely.

uh... hmm... indeed.. well... okay lets back track a bit. IaI myself and Diefire all voted on the last day and it was pretty early so i think most people was not awake or was at work or otherwise unable to post. I am still in favour of my flubbs and massive theory. As I don't think its unreasonable that town didn't get chance to react.

Speaking of my line up. Sorry IaI I had you pegged incorrectly it was always a toss up between you and AJ for that last slot. So ... sorry.