Mini Normal 1861: Musical Mafia (TOWN WIN)

[Dierfire]

Hello everyone! I think that I've played with some of you before.
It shouldn't take me long to get caught up; expect my return in a few hours.

[Dierfire]

All right, here I go!

I'm reading culted as Town. The vote for Secret Agent Jin in 41 and the reasoning given in 62 indicate an attempt to read alignment (is paying attention to why Secret Agent Jin is asking certain questions), and 57 looks like a good attempt to break up a fight between two players that culted reads as Town and focus on Secret Agent Jin instead.

CloudKicker and MiniDeathStar also both seem Town to me. My opinion of CloudKicker is mostly anchored in the "Town slip" business (mistaking the number of players in the game); I find it relatively unlikely that CloudKicker decides to fake this. I think that I have a good question that will help me be certain. My opinion of MiniDeathStar is mostly anchored in 154 and 155 (reconsidering the read on CloudKicker when many players seemed inclined to agree with MiniDeathStar rather than CloudKicker means forfeiting an easy opportunity to be on the "right" side--that is, the popular side--of an argument with a Town player unless both are Mafia, and I think that CloudKicker is unlikely to display such hostility to MiniDeathStar at this stage in the game if both are Mafia).

I'm undecided on Secret Agent Jin and have not much useful to say there at this time. My default would be to follow culted.

Flubbernugget is showing evidence of paying attention to details (75 looking at the VC, 135 paying attention to the reads that massive gives). Ordinarily I consider these things to indicate Town alignment and effort to solve the game; in this case I have a vague feeling that they don't conform to my previous experience with Flubbernugget as Town, so I will check that at some point to be certain.

I'm agreeing with Aj the Epic in 178 that the vote from Io in 166 doesn't seem to have a good reason for the vote. Also of importance to me is that the other major read that Io seems to have is that CloudKicker is Town, but she fails to make a meaningful attempt to interpret votes on that wagon (in particular, in 87 she declines to cast a vote despite having reasons to be suspicious of -Grey- and Kairal that are, as best as I can see,

stronger

than her reason for voting for Aj the Epic).

That's it for my first pass.

UNVOTE: CloudKicker
VOTE: Io

[Dierfire]

@CloudKicker

I'm wondering what sorts of reactions you usually see between Mafia players D1 in your previous experience. Specifically, how often do you see each of these scenarios?

1. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on but drop the act when sufficient distance is created.
2. Mafia players pretend to suspect each other early on and maintain that pretense.
3. Mafia players communicate behind the scenes to coordinate a lynch on a Town player.
4. Mafia players largely ignore each other and try not to vote as a team.

[Dierfire]

@Secret Agent Jin (and @Kairal to a lesser extent)

Thanks for the words of welcome!

[Dierfire]

@massive

I actually think that I'm fine with MDS trying to push this wagon and with Jin in the scumspot of the wagon.

What does this mean?

[Dierfire]

@Io

Your vote is on Aj the Epic. Why is this?

[Dierfire]

Your vote was in 166. I don't see that Kairal made any major points about Aj the Epic before that. What's going on there?
I read 378 again and it seems fairly clear to me that the intent was to express suspicion of massive, HellloooNewman, and you (from the question about the VC I'd assume that massive was the preferred vote). Were you only concerned about the lack of actual vote or did you think that something about the stated suspicions didn't hold up?

[Dierfire]

I haven't caught up completely, and it will probably be 36 hours before I have as much time as I want to get through it.

I did read Io in ISO and I don't see anything that makes me want to remove my vote.
I also looked for a VC but I don't see anything recent. The deadline at least is far enough away that it shouldn't be a problem.

I read this most recent page, but since I don't care to discuss the circumstances of the replacement I've nothing much to say about that.

[Dierfire]

All right, I'm back and catching up now.

[Dierfire]

I'm returning to Io first.

As a response to 439, I don't think that it's reasonable to read 378 as ambiguous about -Grey- (it seems a clear Town read to me). Also, even if the post were ambiguous, I think that a Town player should be more likely to ask Aj The Epic to clarify the read (rather than accuse him of "casting suspicion" and "throwing shade" in 428 and 431, which incidentally don't seem to be concerned about ambiguity).

Kairal already noted (577) that Io in 575 justifies her vote retroactively. Also of note is that the argument from (298) by Kairal that Io seems to find most compelling is that 122 is an attack on CloudKicker that would allow Aj The Epic to subtly push for that lynch...which does not seem so compelling to me that I would expect Io to have case a vote for it.

None of my concerns are addressed by 623. A fair summary of my concerns would be that Io is struggling to create suspicion of Aj The Epic for reasons that don't withstand scrutiny.

[Dierfire]

This would probably also be a good time to note that I'm continuing to read Aj The Epic as Town.

To add to the evidence, I'll say that 526 looks like a good attempt to address some discrepancies in 508 from Secret Agent Jin (Aj The Epic is paying attention to details such as timing of posts and whether Secret Agent Jin has a consistent framework for reading other players).

---
Speaking of Secret Agent Jin, I'm noting a concern here that he sometimes appears to be subtly encouraging conflicts between players whom I read as Town. In 508 there is no vote and no explanation of why Flubbernugget is incorrect, but rather he seems content to let MiniDeathStar do the lifting. Similarly in 596 Secret Agent Jin appears to be trying to restart a fight that had just concluded. I'm undecided about 547; it might fit a similar pattern if HellloooNewman is Town but I don't feel confident in that read the way that I do about Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and Aj The Epic. (I sort of agree with the substance of 635 by I Am Innocent in that I didn't like 544 by HellloooNewman, but I think that there were good reasons for a Town player to move a vote to the larger wagon, just not the ones given by HellloooNewman)

At this time I prefer voting for Io to voting for Secret Agent Jin.

[Dierfire]

I think that someone asked for reads on massive. As a general matter I find that his points make some sort of sense and are internally consistent. I don't find myself agreeing with many of the reads that he gives, but I don't know that I should cast a vote for that. I feel comfortable with most of the players on the massive wagon.

I guess that I'll think about it more, but I'm still liking my vote for Io at this point.

[Dierfire]

@Io

Looking back at it I just said the wrong name actually. I went ahead and re-read the first 7 pages since that's what I was referring too (mostly page 5 and 6) and I said you're name when I had meant Grey. The post I had made in 166 was in response to to 116 and the previous few posts. I just never double checked who was talking and thought it was you so then the post I grabbed from your ISO about AJ was the first one I saw from you about AJ. But yeah I was meaning to have talked about Grey not you.

I also haven't ignored you, pretty sure I've answered everything you said, most of it asking me to explain the vote which is annoying since I did it I think 5 times now 6 albeit just not realizing I said the wrong name.

Ha ha, I'd think that you'd acknowledge that the repetition was warranted now that you've also acknowledged that your given response didn't make much sense!
Anyway, this is the post from -Grey- to which you refer:

However Confbias can absolutely come from scum (they know the roles from the getgo).

Scum cannot confbias a scumread, which is what you were accusing me of.

Hair splitting and doubling down does nothing to make me townread you.

I'm not really finding that a compelling reason to vote for Aj The Epic (not even then, but certainly not now). I've already discussed (in 655) why I also don't find compelling reasons in your 439. Have you more to offer?

You said that you thought that HellloooNewman and massive are Town. I think that you've discussed most of the players voting for them, but maybe you could share your thoughts on Secret Agent Jin and Kairal? I'm reading the former in the Null-Mafia range and the latter as Town.

[Dierfire]

I've checked again, and as best as I can tell those are the most current reads that Io has given.

(Or perhaps including the quote from your ISO was confusing? Io cited your 116 as a reason to be suspicious of Aj The Epic and I am asking her whether she still stands by that)

[Dierfire]

I apologize for the confusion. Every address in that post is for Io ("your 439" refers to a post by Io, "this is the post from -Grey- to which you refer" refers to her explanation given in 691)

[Dierfire]

@massive

Also, VOTE: Secret Agent Jin

I can think of reasons to vote for Secret Agent Jin, but perhaps you have others to share?

[Dierfire]

@MiniDeathStar

I can think of reasons to vote for Secret Agent Jin, but perhaps you have others to share?

Massive sharing reasons for his vote? Which dimension did you come from, I want there like asap.

Ha ha, you never know! I figured that I'd ask anyway, and see how I am rewarded:

"Scum are causing confusion" (701) but then doesn't actually react to the confusion he believes has been caused as he wants to lynch one of the major wagons today and another tomorrow (712) (unless he thinks Io, Newman, and I are creating the confusion, which seems unlikely)

I've thought some more about this vote and a few other things, and I don't find any fault. This sort of parallels some of my thinking about Secret Agent Jin. It's also unlikely to me that massive and HelloooNewman are both Mafia (because both pushed the idea that you and CloudKicker--now Shadow_step--are partners, and that's a weird thing to commit two Mafia players to), and so I've no reason to think that massive is trying to divert a wagon from HellloooNewman with that vote.

[Dierfire]

@culted

Speaking of Secret Agent Jin, I'm noting a concern here that he sometimes appears to be subtly encouraging conflicts between players whom I read as Town. In 508 there is no vote and no explanation of why Flubbernugget is incorrect, but rather he seems content to let MiniDeathStar do the lifting.

Fair point but I don't recall you having flub as town prior to this post?

Ah, yes, thanks!

Flubbernugget is showing evidence of paying attention to details (75 looking at the VC, 135 paying attention to the reads that massive gives). Ordinarily I consider these things to indicate Town alignment and effort to solve the game; in this case I have a vague feeling that they don't conform to my previous experience with Flubbernugget as Town, so I will check that at some point to be certain.

So I did look into this and I've satisfied my misgivings. I was thinking back to previous experience in Mini Normal 1669, in which Flubbernugget was Town and tended to post very short snippets without much depth of analysis and certainly never referring to a read over multiple posts as he did in 135 in this game (it felt more like waiting passively for things to wander by rather than actively seeking to understand other players). However, that was a long time ago and in more recent Town games that I reviewed (Micro 665, Open 658) he was more thorough.

As it happens someone else in Micro 665 had this exchange with Flubbernugget:

I don't remember flub ever being so level-headed.

That's because I don't work retail anymore

That's persuasive to me; the slight change in style is a natural progression and therefore not a result of a change in alignment. To be sure I also checked a game in which Flubbernugget was Mafia (Micro 652) and found a similar style there.
So, from previous games I'm not concerned that the change in style indicates that Flubbernugget is Mafia. This allows me to go ahead trying to read this game. I stand by my earlier comments that Flubbernugget appears to be putting effort into reading other players in this game, and therefore read him as Town.

[Dierfire]

It looks as though we've a little less than five days remaining. I recognize that my vote on Io doesn't have much company, but I'm not confident in any other vote right now. I'll work on reading over again tomorrow.

[Dierfire]

So it looks as though my Io vote has some company now! This is a good thing.

@HellloooNewman

Maura's, It's interesting that "you don't believe for a minute" that I'm a cop, but you are all in on helping direct my actions.

Those two things are not contradictory!

If I had an investigative role like Cop, I might target Secret Agent Jin or massive (normally a Town result on a player likely to be lynched is not tremendously useful because the Cop has to claim in order to divert the lynch, but with a role already claimed it's almost as useful to have Town results on players likely to be lynched as it is to have Mafia results).

[Dierfire]

I've not forgotten this game, but I'm not done evaluating yet. I suspect that I need to revise or at least reexamine a good number of my reads.

If I were voting from my unrevised reads I guess that I'd vote for Secret Agent Jin.

[Dierfire]

It's weird and anticlimactic to say so, but after reading again I don't see any vote that immediately strikes as

better

than a vote for Secret Agent Jin. Given the interactions that I reviewed earlier (656), I think that for Secret Agent Jin to be Mafia would require a number of players to be Town (Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar, Kairal, Aj The Epic). Of those, after reading again I still feel confident about Aj The Epic and Kairal, moderately confident about MiniDeathStar, and less confident about Flubbernugget. Given also that I am independently reading Shadow_step (formerly CloudKicker) as Town, this leaves me with weird hodgepodge POE teams, but I don't really have a lot of...well, it's some concept similar to degrees of freedom, I just can't think how to phrase it...to contemplate teams in which Secret Agent Jin is Town because I rate culted at least as likely to be Town as Flubbernugget is.

I don't really even have many questions to ask either, which is also weird. I'm going to work very hard on reading the rest of the game again and massive in particular because I don't feel like I have a good handle on this.

[Dierfire]

Here I am! I apologize for my absence--I am here now and not leaving until thoroughly caught up with this game (I have the remainder of the day at my disposal).

[Dierfire]

Easy stuff first!
---
The "slip" line from CloudKicker in 43 is still unlikely from a Mafia player. The decreased activity level from Shadow_step is unfortunate but not suspicious in itself; my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.
---
I Am Innocent was off of my radar for a long time, but now occupies a position that I'd consider among the stronger Town reads. Checking into my predecessor (893) is a level of effort that seems less likely to come from a Mafia player (also it's an unusual target for effort by a Mafia player).
---
In addition to all of my previous thoughts about Aj the Epic that still stand (656 mostly), I'm now adding that Aj The Epic responds to Io as I would expect a Town player to. Some of this is difficult to phrase (relies on things like "tone" and "gut"), but I think that I can safely point to things like 434 (very shortly after Io incorrectly attributes a read to Aj The Epic, he corrects her--this suggests a legitimately held read and familiarity with the thought process as opposed to a falsified thought process that needs checking before a response comes together).
---
My secondary tier consists of players like MiniDeathStar, Kairal, and culted. I was reading them as Town D1, but due to time/decay and my baseline assumption that I'm wrong about one or more of the players I was reading as Town, I'm less confident in these.

[Dierfire]

@MiniDeathStar

By the way: I just finished a game where Kairal was scum and totally fooled me, so I'm no longer locktown on him. Just town.

I'm having a bit of difficulty reading Kairal myself. I thought that many things pointed toward Town alignment, but as I already have too many players as Town I've been fretting about things that I might have missed. How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?

[Dierfire]

@massive

I don't have any issue with Dierfire. 656 is good townposting. Also I find his push on Io consistent even if ultimately wrong, which feels good to me.

I found this while reading over again, and I've two questions. What specifically did you like about my 656, and do you still like those things?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

Still sticking to my suspicions from before + her vca is awful

I'm aware of several methodological problems with the VCA. As you believe that MiniDeathStar is Mafia, I assume that you find those problems likely to be intentional. What implications would you propose for the alignments of the players involved?

[Dierfire]

I asked for two reasons.
The first was that MiniDeathStar pointed to two players as suspicious in the VCA of 972 (I Am Innocent and culted) and four players as suspicious in relation to the claim from HellloooNewman in 974 (those two plus massive and Kairal). Given my reads, I was not thinking that all four were likely to be Town, so I was more hoping than expecting that you would have some great insight into resolving that.
Given your previously stated objections to associations before flips, however, I was more realistically hoping to have you discuss your independent reads on those players.

Does that tentative supposition (MiniDeathStar is Mafia trying to unfairly implicate culted and I Am Innocent, who are both Town), match your independent reads?

[Dierfire]

I had read -Grey- over, but I'm not confident in my ability to discern any targets--and even if I were, with no Mafia players dead I'd be very reluctant to put much stock in a "clear" on those grounds.

I assume that -Grey- died because the Mafia players found Jailkeeper a more likely role than Bulletproof. It's also true that not many players were reading -Grey- as Mafia (but due to the claim I'm not quite yet at the point where I start wondering why you and Kairal still live).

[Dierfire]

@Aj The Epic

Normally a bulletproof comes with a strongman, right? Scum could've figured it was bullshit if they didn't have a corresponding strongman to an infinite shot BP. I don't particularly remember a BP claim but I also don't see any other way to take a BP suggestion under no pressure other than a PR crumb. So the two reasons I would suspect initially is 1) Saw the BP suggest, thought it meant PR crumb or 2) went after a universal town read.

I believe from the quotes below that -Grey- claimed either Jailkeeper or 1-Shot Bulletproof (more shots would have alerted him to the fact that he was not playing Matrix6).

And by don't buy, that means I'm counterclaiming him.

I'm either JK or BP. Either way, he can't be cop.

Oh fucking lol... thought I was playing Matrix 6.

Lovely.

These were D1, so the Mafia had many potential ways forward depending on the roles available: Role Cop N1 to confirm the role and normal kill N2, Strongman kill N2 (although that seems perhaps less likely for killing the Jailkeeper than for killing the Cop), just guessing, and so on.
Plainly they were at least sufficiently frightened of the Cop claim to kill HellloooNewman before -Grey- even though -Grey- had attracted less suspicion, but after that -Grey- would have been an attractive kill as you say for being widely read as Town as well as for the claim. Based on the nature of the claim, I doubt that the Mafia would have suspected another role entirely.

Also, in your 998 you talk about MDS thinking Kairal was suspicious in Newman, and we know she said Kairal is weird for the hammer on Jin, then do you see legitimate reason for MDS to point IaI and Culted over townreading Kairal? I ask because I feel like Shadowstep and MDS may be setting Kairal up to take a fall here, with Shadow pushing and MDS seemingly posturing kairal into a less-than-stellar position.

Other than the VCA, I do not believe that I've seen a reason from MiniDeathStar to suspect I Am Innocent or culted over Kairal. My first impulse would not be to suspect that MiniDeathStar and Shadow_step are working together to bring Kairal down (partly because I'm independently reading Shadow_step as Town with fair strength and partly because the choice of target would seem unusual), but it will still be worthwhile to get more flesh on the progression of the Kairal read.

[Dierfire]

@MiniDeathStar

---words---

I actually think I agree with this.

Ha ha, which parts?

How did Kairal deceive you in the previous game, and what implications does that have for your read in this game?

Mostly on tone. He was a lone scum in that game (at least at the time I was still alive) and his tone matched exactly what I'd expect from town him. His style was also very similar to mine back in my newbtown days which made me apply my personal towntells to him. This is what I said about him that game:

Kairal is a new player and he's pretty close to how I was when I was new (as town). It's easy for me to read him because we follow(ed) the same patterns: open with thoughts, sharing every opinion about the game, narrowing down the pool, getting sidetracked into tunnels, carefully interrogating everybody. We *do* have some personality differences but other than that I can easily see my old self in how he's playing atm.

So, on what basis are you now relying for your read on Kairal?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

[Dierfire]

@Flubbernugget

@Flubbernugget

Most of their scum reads come from awkward activity, which makes sense considering the holidays

I'm not certain that I understand this one. Could you rephrase?

As in, they were laying low but still around to resolve lynches

Sorry, I just to make sure that I understand. You are saying:

• that culted and I Am Innocent are Town
  
• that some people expressed suspicion of them because of their seeming inactivity
  
• that their seeming inactivity is due to the holidays and therefore not suspicious

Is that correct?

[Dierfire]

@Aj The Epic

I'm acknowledging your points in 1014. In recent games I've been incorrectly suspicious of Shadow_step at a high rate, and I'm not confident that I have a plan to read him correctly. To be honest, I was reading the slot entirely on the basis of the D1 CloudKicker activity (other than checking that inactivity by itself isn't a specific indicator that Shadow_step is Mafia). I'd be interested in whether you see anything interesting in ISO from CloudKicker; it's true that I was reading alignment from one or two specific data points rather than a trend, but I was feeling pretty good about those data points.
In the meantime I'll read over some more old games and try to work my way around this block.

[Dierfire]

@Shadow_step

I read your 1010. I surmise that you feel that -Grey- was correct to be suspicious of Aj The Epic? Did you have anything else to add?

[Dierfire]

My time is limited tonight, but I'll do what I can quickly.

I saw some analysis on 1.07, and I have thoughts. That VC is quoted below (with my additions for flipped players).

Vote Count 1.07

1 -

Io

: Dierfire
0 - Dierfire:
0 -

HellloooNewman

:
2 - MiniDeathStar: Shadow_Step, massive
0 - Kairal:
0 - Flubbernugget:
0 - I Am Innocent:
1 -

Secret Agent Jin

: culted
1 - Shadow_Step:

HellloooNewman

1 -

-Grey-

: I Am Innocent
0 - culted:
5 - massive: Flubbernugget, MiniDeathStar,

-Grey-

,

Secret Agent Jin

, Kairal
1 - Aj The Epic:

Io

0 -No Lynch:
Not voting: Aj The Epic

@massive

You said that you find it unlikely that you'd reach five votes with only Town players voting for you. You also said that MiniDeathStar is Town. Therefore you conclude that Kairal and Flubbernugget are good candidates for Mafia. To me, the assumption that MiniDeathStar is Town seems a pretty major one for the case! My confidence in reading MiniDeathStar as Town has been waning since D1. Do you have a reason that I should be more confident?

@Kairal

At some point you mentioned that you didn't see an obvious effort to shift the lynch from massive, but given that Io and HellloooNewman were Town, what would such an effort have looked like that you don't see there?

[Dierfire]

Dierfire, top 3 scum reads please?

I'd say massive, Flubbernugget, and...MiniDeathStar, maybe? The full list would look like this:

TOWN
---
Aj The Epic, I Am Innocent, CloudKicker* (need to follow through on reading Shadow_step more carefully as discussed with Aj The Epic)
---
Kairal, culted, MiniDeathStar
---
Flubbernugget, massive
---
MAFIA

I can flesh those out more later, but in brief: I think that 1025 from massive indicates a conclusion that was formed before the evidence (that post questions Kairal but includes a vote for Flubbernugget, and I don't see a reason why the argument doesn't apply to MiniDeathStar).

I'll have a much more thorough response within 48 hours.

[Dierfire]

Hello everyone,

I sincerely apologize for my inactivity. I should have taken a period of V/LA.

I promise to do better. I am catching up immediately.

[Dierfire]

I've caught up through the claim by massive, so I guess that I'm just the worst at this game? I was reading Kairal as less suspicious than Flubbernugget.

[Dierfire]

UNVOTE: massive

[Dierfire]

@Mod

I will give a 48 hour extension if 6/9 players vote for it.

I would like to vote for the extension if it is still available.

[Dierfire]

Where are we with the mass claim?

[Dierfire]

Who is next to claim?

[Dierfire]

@Kairal

Theoretically, yes--the players most likely to be Mafia claim first so that they have the least information when claiming.

[Dierfire]

I'm going ahead because I'm the first name on the list in 1186 that hasn't claimed yet. My claim is VT.

[Dierfire]

BlackVoid won't necessarily claim now; the result from massive means that we wouldn't entertain lynching BlackVoid today (even if the claim is a lie massive would be the player to lynch). For this reason, BlackVoid gets to decide whether or not to claim in order to maximize our chance of withholding key information from the Mafia players.

[Dierfire]

Anyway, I'm going ahead with this. Ideally this would probably wait until the mass claim ends, but I'm impatient (and anxious to get involved).

Has this quote already been discussed? The underlining is mine.

Oh if we have a JK I think the likely hood of a Double cop extremely unlikely. as

even with encryptor, strongman and Rolecop

I think it would still kinda favour Green.

As best as I can tell on my first pass, no one mentioned this yet. It seems almost too easy, but the inclusion of a specific list of three Mafia roles it looks a lot like the rare and wonderful Mafia slip.
I'm aware that my logic isn't really holding up in this game, but I really can't see how else that list gets there.

VOTE: Naomi-Tan

[Dierfire]

UNVOTE: Naomi-Tan

Wait

[Dierfire]

@Naomi-Tan

How did you come up with that specific list of three roles?

[Dierfire]

Yeah, scratch that vote for right now.

I really thought that CloudKicker was Town.
Also Encryptor was the role on that list that I thought least likely to show up on a "top of the head" list, but Naomi-Tan has played a surprising number of games with those recently (which makes it more plausible).

[Dierfire]

I really wanted it to be that easy, though.

[Dierfire]

@Naomi-Tan

Why don't you believe the claim from massive?

[Dierfire]

I thought that the role and result claimed by massive made sense with earlier play.

HellloooNewman claims in 805, and the next post from massive is a vote for HellloooNewman (838).
That and the progression of the read on MiniDeathStar corroborate the claim well enough to satisfy me.

[Dierfire]

Oh, sorry, I had forgotten that you weren't finished.
Well, consider those points for later, then--I think that the claim is believable.

[Dierfire]

All right, so I'm done for the night as well but I'm trying to improve my involvement.

I haven't come across anything that makes me want to drastically alter my lynch pool (or at least, nothing that tells me where I'm going wrong), so I'm next proceeding to choose the best vote of those available.

NOT LYNCH: I Am Innocent, Aj The Epic, Naomi-Tan
LYNCH: Kairal, Flubbernugget, culted

My next task is to read Kairal and Flubbernugget, because both were near the bottom of my list before massive claimed and I'd really like to hit Mafia with the lynch today.

[Dierfire]

Which vote would that be? The vote in 838 from massive? I thought that it made sense because HellloooNewman claimed Cop (and did not claim the modifier). If massive drew Even-Night Cop, that should have been a suspicious claim!

[Dierfire]

@Kairal

Could you direct me to the best case that you've ever made as Town against a Mafia player?

[Dierfire]

@Kairal (three consecutive posts)

Dier has kindly reminded me that my reads suck.

I did not intend for the question to come across this way; I apologize for that.

The reason that I asked is that when I look at your earlier votes, it seems that they were mostly cast on the basis of whether a player justified a vote with sufficient quantity (rather than sufficient

quality

) of analysis. If I take 651 as indicative of your methodology, I could note that you seem to get stuck at the first step (forcing players to generate content) without proceeding to the second (analyze that content). I could also cite your read on me; you've been saying that I'm Town fairly consistently because my posts are analytical (926, 1041, 1330), but you never actually discuss my reads themselves.

The reason that this concerns me is that it doesn't look like following through and attempting to read alignments.

To be fair, there are a few reads that I noticed that don't conform to this pattern.

You read HellloooNewman as Town (correctly) in 660 because the vote on MiniDeathStar (544) didn't feel opportunistic. However, within 12 hours (668) you express suspicion because he gives few opinions on other players, and by 708 you say that the tunnel makes HellloooNewman suspicious! That's strange to me because, if the vote isn't suspicious because it's a difficult lynch to push, the tunnel should also not be suspicious.

Your read on Io as Town (715) also addresses motivations (did Io have any motivation to lie about the reason for voting for Aj The Epic), although in this case that wasn't quite the point (we didn't find Io suspicious because we thought that she was lying about the reason to vote Aj The Epic, we found Io suspicious because we thought that her reasons for voting Aj The Epic were weaker than her reasons to vote for other players, which made it seem that she didn't believe her own reads and therefore that the reads were not genuine).

More recently your votes seem to be for associative and POE reasons; there's nothing inherently wrong with this, but I'd really want to be certain that your Town reads were solid results of an attempt to read alignment before I'd accept these at face value. For example, your read that I Am Innocent is unlikely to be Mafia for the push on me is one with which I agree (for slightly different reason than what you gave)--but I'm not sure that you have as much reason to be confident that I'm Town as I do!

[Dierfire]

I checked into a previous game (Newbie 1754: Fire Game Over), and I found posts like these. These seem a lot more interested in assessing motivation and alignment than what I've seen from you in this game. All the underlining is mine.

Daya: that post is getting too long to quote so I'll just respond to a few important bits. I am saying you are extremely confident in your read on death being scum and I would like you to tell us why.

So far you haven't provided anywhere near enough reasoning for how certain you are that death is scum.

(This one is sort of equivocal and could fit both patterns, but I think that the request for more content is secondary to the attempt to assess the confidence of the read.)

It's true that Cerb brought up that he would hammer death if he was scum. I addressed that: he comes out looking pretty clean if he just sits around and waits for a death lynch to happen. The next day he can go "you all lynched death and he's town, which I said all along, now you should trust me".

However if he's the kind of scum that prefers to keep his hands clean by being passive why suddenly try to push for Daya? If he was willing to put his fingerprints on a lynch as he's clearly done with Daya then why not do so with death? There's no consistency there.

So maybe he's scum just playing a risky gambit where he stands out from the crowd and draws a lot of attention early, and then plans to do what I said, until I called him out for it at which point he starts pushing Daya to throw me off. It's possible. But it's also really complicated and at a certain point you have to use Occam's razor.

It's really vastly more likely that he's just a town player who doesn't like making reads or votes until he's very confident rather than the 4 dimensional chess I outlined above.

In short if Aelin is a passive defensive player why draw attention to herself by not voting? If she is an aggressive player why not vote for the suspicious guy who isn't on her team? I don't really see a place where the one person does both of these things- it seems much more likely that she was unwilling to make a call either way. As scum it doesn't make sense to not be trying to sway that vote. It makes a lot of sense for town though

[Dierfire]

Also I guess that I should address the most recent VCA.

I'm not sure that there's actually much analysis there. Given how many possible combinations of Mafia/Town players there are (and the roughly 50/50 split among players excepting massive, BlackVoid, and the analyzer), statements like "it is unlikely that Naomi-Tan and Flubbernugget are both Town" are always going to look plausible.

What I actually want to ask is this: if you follow the analysis to the level of individual votes, is Naomi-Tan or Flubbernugget more suspicious? For example, you say that it is unlikely that all Mafia players voted for Io, and therefore that either Naomi-Tan or Flubbernugget should be Mafia. If you look at their reads on Io (predecessor's read for Naomi-Tan), does one stand out to you as a Mafia player avoiding the wagon, or are you just tossing a coin?

[Dierfire]

I'm reading Flubbernugget tomorrow.

[Dierfire]

I missed the soft claim. Where was that?

[Dierfire]

I've finished reading Flubbernugget once but I don't know if I have another two-hour writing stint in me tonight.

The main thing that stands out to me is that Flubbernugget has minimal interactions with several players. These largely seem to be players whom Flubbernugget reads as Town (I Am Innocent, culted, Aj The Epic, me). Most interactions that do exist are reactive; Flubbernugget answers more questions than he asks. Some of the interactions that do exist with those players seem like unlikely interactions to stage with Mafia partner, though the overall low density makes it difficult to be confident in that.

I think that we have a little over 60 hours left. I'm going to wait just another 24 hours or so to see whether Flubbernugget returns with material that will help my read (claim included). If nothing materializes before then, I'll do what I can with what we have (either way I will at least want to look in more detail at interactions between Flubbernugget and Kairal).

I'm not really sure where the VC stands now.

[Dierfire]

I'm here.

[Dierfire]

I'm catching up now.

[Dierfire]

All right, done!

Content is incoming, but I know that time is short. The important points are these:

I'm going back to reading Kairal as Town. I hate doing this, but I think that the self-hammer offer was sincere and I'm reluctantly rewarding it. I also think that Kairal's frustration before BlackVoid entered and cooling off afterward indicate a genuine frustration. I don't think that the things that I didn't like (1504 and on) are indicative of alignment to the same degree.

I'd feel really stupid voting for Aj The Epic given my previous read, and it has been low priority for revision such that I'm aware of others finding Aj The Epic suspicious but not really why. The interaction with Kairal over the last few pages feels like how Aj The Epic should be responding to Kairal as either alignment, but I think that the point about unwillingness to vote for Flubbernugget might hold water.

I think that several votes recently swung to Aj The Epic from culted.

Is there any chance that we can swing back, or move to Flubbernugget, for those of you reading all three as Mafia?

I had those two toward the bottom of my list and I got partway through reading them such that I'd feel more comfortable voting for one of them than for Aj The Epic.

[Dierfire]

@BlackVoid

my recollection and limited review of previous games supports the idea that Shadow_step is no less active as Mafia than as Town.

What are you basing this off of? In Podoboq's game, he was incredibly active and pushing things a lot before he replaced out. That has not been my impression at all.

I'm certain that I cited a steep drop in activity level as a reason to be suspicious of the slot in that game (although I believe that the idea came from Grendel first).
I definitely recalled Newbie 1712, in which Shadow_step was Mafia and posted around 2.5 posts per page alive, and Newbie 1729, in which he was Town and posted closer to 4 posts per page alive, at that time (for reference Mini Normal 1838 was sitting at around 3 posts per page alive).

Since that didn't work last game, I reviewed more this time around. I don't recall which exact games a reviewed in my 993, but I think that Shadow_step had under 2 posts per page alive as Town in Mini Normal 1812 and as Mafia in Mini Normal 1829.

[Dierfire]

I'll condense it further:

NOT LYNCH: Aj The Epic, Naomi-Tan, Kairal, I Am Innocent (massive, BlackVoid)
LYNCH: culted, Flubbernugget

It's certain that I'm missing someone, but I don't know whom and our time is short.

[Dierfire]

Oh, we actually have about 15 hours. I thought that our time was even shorter than that.

[Dierfire]

I thought that Aj The Epic appeared to be trying to read alignments. In particular I thought that the exchange with Io was evidence for this (Aj The Epic was following up on her reads to address inconsistencies in 605 and 610).

[Dierfire]

I also thought that the push against Shadow_step in 1014 was an unlikely one for a Mafia player (no claim yet from massive, so massive or MiniDeathStar would probably have been easier at least in recruiting my vote). The VC in 1047 never materialized, but I'd be more suspicious of culted in 1036 than Aj The Epic in 1014.

[Dierfire]

If I had insightful things to share, I'd share them!

I suppose that I could be wrong about I Am Innocent; the read there is fairly one-dimensional and relies to some extent on a questionable tell that I use to predict when players expressing suspicion of me are genuine.
I could also be wrong about Aj The Innocent, although I don't feel like I have any solid logic for that besides the fact that players I believe to be Town seem to find Aj The Epic suspicious.
I could also be wrong about Kairal, since there are a number of things that I found logically suspicious even though tonally Kairal feels Town.
I could also be wrong about Naomi-Tan, since there's no real reason that a Mafia player

couldn't

continue to cast suspicion at massive despite the overwhelming likelihood that the claim is true and the apparent futility of the effort. Also the "slip" from earlier feels like shaky ground to me; it's

unlikely

from a Mafia player but only because those things tend not to occur to them.

If you're asking for which reads feels weakest to me...well, Naomi-Tan is probably the strongest, but I'm having difficulty with the others.

[Dierfire]

Are you particularly worried about a team that includes Aj The Epic and me but does not include either culted or Flubbernugget? I ask because I agree that my current lynch list is missing a Mafia player, but I'd find it a lot easier to work through associations with a Mafia player flipped.
So, unless you're worried about {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, I Am Innocent} or {Aj The Epic, Dierfire, Naomi-Tan}, I'd prefer to just have you pick culted or Flubbernugget and I'll follow.

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, stupendous!

[Dierfire]

I'll agree with the idea that Aj The Epic is a greater threat if Mafia, but that conditional is really important and I'm not persuaded of it.

I can be online about three hours before the deadline for about an hour, and if we really need an emergent hammer I can be on in the last 30 minutes.
If we need something earlier than that I can try to be online intermittently starting six hours before the deadline, but that will be sporadic.

[Dierfire]

I can also leave a vote if we might have trouble rallying a switch--but if I have to choose between Kairal and Aj The Epic, then I'll hold that decision until I absolutely have to choose.

[Dierfire]

Yes, that sounds fair to me.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I'm leaving this here for now in case we need it to make the wagon viable. If we're switching to culted, I'll be back at the aforementioned times (best availability from three hours before the deadline until two hours before the deadline).
If we're switching to someone else, then I'll make the decision on the fly (and likely in the aforementioned period or at the very last minute).

[Dierfire]

I didn't really finish with Flubbernugget in 1550 but I can elaborate now with a stronger version; Flubbernugget has a low level of effort to solve the game. He asks few questions, certainly fewer than he answers, and although promising to catch up multiple times (1516 most recently) he never returns with a significant contribution.
---
My read on culted is purely POE; again, I feel like I'm not far from responding to Kairal the way that culted does. However, culted has a certain focus on Kairal that doesn't quite accord with trying to read alignments on other players, including 1365 (read on I Am Innocent that goes strongly against the trend, but without reasons that seem like culted is trying to actually change any minds such that it reads like setting up a secondary attack on Kairal in 1366)

I also felt that this quote in response to Kairal read like an attempt at deflection:

I just still don't understand like my initial push was just trying to get you to expound on your thoughts- I don't wanna play mafia in a world where that's scummy. Or acceptable to not have to explain why you think things are scummy ya know?

---
Yes, my read on Naomi-Tan is not as strong as it was before you showed me that. I suppose that this weighs in favor of a culted lynch, although I am worried about accumulating sufficient votes.

[Dierfire]

For clarity:

My read on culted

is

was

purely POE

The other reasons are things that I just found on my most recent read through.

[Dierfire]

All right, we'll see.

@Everyone

I'm not sure whether we're getting any VC between now and the deadline, so if you move your vote between now and then could you also make sure that the VC is easily discernible? I believe that we are here now:

Unofficial Vote Count

0 - Dierfire:
0 - BlackVoid:
3 - Kairal: Culted, Aj The Epic, Flubbernugget
2 - Flubbernugget: Naomi-Tan, Dierfire
0 - I Am Innocent:
0 - Naomi-Tan:
0 - culted:
0 - massive:
3 - Aj The Epic: Kairal, BlackVoid, I Am Innocent

Not voting: massive

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is (expired on 2017-01-13 15:30:00)

[Dierfire]

I think that Aj The Epic has four votes and Kairal has three. That makes my decision straightforward, at least (although I won't say "easy").
I'm reading Aj The Epic as Town, and I'm expecting a Town flip, but I don't think that the read is strong enough to justify passing on the lynch.

It really burns me to do it.

VOTE: Aj The Epic

[Dierfire]

VOTE: culted

I definitely wouldn't want to lynch Kairal at this point; that read feels good to me and my main suspects were voting for Kairal with Aj The Epic.
Similarly, my read on I Am Innocent and Naomi-Tan is strengthened by the lynch. I might perhaps reassess Naomi-Tan if we get another Mafia flip with one of the roles from the list in 1191, but otherwise I'm looking elsewhere.

[Dierfire]

I could perhaps see one Mafia player there, but two would be unlikely. Therefore I believe that we will have a higher density of Mafia players on the Kairal wagon than on the Aj The Epic wagon.

[Dierfire]

I don't think so, but maybe!
I think that Flubbernugget and culted have higher chances to be Mafia than anyone on the Aj The Epic wagon. I Am Innocent or Naomi-Tan might be Mafia under certain circumstances (my choice will be particularly difficult if I see culted flip Mafia Encryptor, for example).

[Dierfire]

Sorry, I didn't realize that we were back on.

I think that seeing culted flip Mafia Goon is inconsistent with Naomi-Tan being the last Mafia player (that thing with the specific role names in 1191 was the only major doubt that I had, and while I acknowledge the quotes presented by BlackVoid in 1766, I think that there are few things that indicate Mafia alignment for Naomi-Tan and more that indicate Town alignment).

I think that the interactions D3 strongly reinforce my read on Kairal as Town and moderately reinforce my read on I Am Innocent as Town.

Flubbernugget is far and away my highest suspicion. I'm aware that Kairal is asking for an immediate hammer--I'll go ahead and state

intent to hammer as soon as I find time for one last check

, which will occur before Sunday ends.

[Dierfire]

Ah, I should have just pulled the trigger in 1979.
---
Anyway, I'm glad that we won but not particularly pleased with how I did personally. I could talk about it a lot more, but I want to highlight two specific things. First, my failure to see what was going on with massive and MiniDeathStar in 1086 was pretty egregious. Second, my choice between Kairal and Aj The Epic (1771) should have been much easier given that Aj The Epic was voting with culted and Flubbernugget against Kairal.
---
I'm leaving the site for a bit. This year has been busy from the start and shows no sign of changing. I don't think that I'll be able to put in the sort of time that these games deserve. I apologize to everyone in this game for my lackluster participation. Prior to this, I'd never before needed to have my slot put up for replacement for any reason.
---

@Mod

Thanks for running the game!