Mini 1869- camn's revenge GAME OVER!

[SirCakez]

I've played with Fate before and he's never hopped to this extent iirc

[Nachomamma8]

Your memory is about as accurate as when you said that I've never been prodded as town.

[Nachomamma8]

In Gumball, there was a period where he voted 3 times in 6 posts.

[mastina]

Hard assumptions: Gin is town; Prism is town.
Soft assumptions: other townreads, e.g. SirCakez, Nacho, Fate, Vaxkiller.

drealmerz7 ---------

3 ( Vaxkiller, Aeronaut, pisskop/Aristophanes, Pine )

L- 4

mastina ------------

2 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, )

L- 5

SirCakez -----------

2 ( Monokuma, Fate, )

L- 5

If drealmerz is town, I'd be inclined to think 1/2 of Aeronaut/Aristophanes are scum.
If drealmerz is scum, then this says nothing about the wagon, though it probably means at most one scum present. Regardless, SirCakez is town. On the SirCakez wagon, Monokuma (who has extensive experience with SirCakez) sticks out as possible scum.
It's worth noting that theoretically, Vaxkiller/Aeronaut/Aristophanes would be a viable scumteam that voted together, but I feel this unlikely.

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

1 ( Monokuma, )

L- 6

Nachomamma8 --------

1 ( mastina, )

L- 6

drealmerz7 ---------

2 ( Vaxkiller, pisskop/Aristophanes, Pine )

L- 5

mastina ------------

3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )

L- 4

SirCakez -----------

2 ( Fate, Aeronaut, )

L- 5

Not Voting -

4 ( Secret Agent Jin, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Nachomamma8, Prism, )

Here the relevant change is that Aeronaut hopped onto SirCakez, and Monokuma hopped off.
This, incidentally, is another theoretical spot where a scumteam could vote together: Fate, Monokuma, and Aeronaut. While possible (nothing in the Fate-Monokuma spew is beyond their ability to fake as scum), I find it improbable.
Also theoretically you could say the same of the drealmerz/SirCakez/BTD6_maker trio on my wagon, but fuck that idea; that scumteam makes zero sense in any way whatsoever.

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

3 ( Monokuma, Prism, Secret Agent Jin, )

L- 4

Nachomamma8 --------

3 ( mastina, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Fate, Pine )

L- 4

Fate ---------------

1 ( Aeronaut, )

L- 6

drealmerz7 ---------

2 ( Vaxkiller, pisskop/Aristophanes, )

L- 5

mastina ------------

3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )

L- 4

Not Voting -

1 ( Nachomamma8, )

So here, the only possible scum on Nacho is Fate.
The possible scum on Gin are Monokuma and Secret Agent Jin. (This wagon later goes to L-3 with my vote.)

Then, we get a lot of static. Like, a lot. Aside from my move, 520, 571, 600, and 692 all remain exactly the same. This stagnation is good reason to believe that the scum were lurking and/or inactive and doing nothing to change the gamestate. The lurkers/inactives were pisskop/Aristophanes, Nachomamma8 (at the time), Aeronaut, Secret Agent Jin, and BTD6_maker. Players doing nothing to change the gamestate is a little more subjective; all the lurkers/inactives automatically count, but you could argue any of drealmerz/SirCakez/Vaxkiller/Fate/Monokuma to be doing nothing to change the gamestate. You would find agreement on some and disagreement on others and who'd agree on who would be different person to person.
Basically, this isn't a tool to tell you who is scum, but can tell you who isn't, and that depends on who you feel in drealmerz/SirCakez/Vaxkiller/Fate/Monokuma counts as having tried to change the gamestate.

It takes Aristophanes replacing into the game to cause a change, which we see here:

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

4 ( Monokuma, Prism, Secret Agent Jin, mastina, )

L- 3

Nachomamma8 --------

1 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, )

L- 6

Fate ---------------

3 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )

L- 4

drealmerz7 ---------

1 ( Fate, )

L- 6

mastina ------------

3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )

L- 4

Not Voting -

1 ( Nachomamma8, Pine )

...And that's only a change of both Vaxkiller and Aristophanes onto Fate: the second time we get Aeronaut/Aristophanes/Vaxkiller as a voting bloc in the game.
If Fate is town, I'd expect a scum to be on his wagon at this point. How many, unclear; anywhere from 1-3.
If Fate is scum, then this says nothing about the wagon, though it probably means at most one scum present.

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

1 ( Secret Agent Jin, )

L- 6

Fate ---------------

4 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, Monokuma, )

L- 3

Monokuma -----------

4 ( Nachomamma8, Fate, Prism, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, )

L- 3

mastina ------------

3 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, )

L- 4

Aeronaut -----------

1 ( mastina, )

L- 6

The most obvious change here is that the Gin wagon collapsed. I left it, and suddenly, the votes cascaded off of it: Prism to Monokuma, and Monokuma to Fate. The Monokuma wagon peaks here, and the Fate wagon gets close to its peak as well. (Prism switching to Fate was the absolute peak.)

So on Fate, we've got four names who could be scum: this is not a wagon which looks good. While I am assuming Vaxkiller is town, I am not willing to buy this is an all-town wagon, regardless of Fate's alignment. I'm not sure all three scum would be on the wagon (though that's possible), but there should be at least 1-2 in there.

In contrast, on Monokuma, we've got only two possible scum: Nachomamma8, and Fate. This looks to be a mostly town wagon, driven strongly by town.
If Monokuma is scum, this was an all-town wagon most likely.
If Monokuma is town, this wagon has two possibilities:
-A mostly town-driven wagon, in which case scum are equally divided between the mastina/Fate wagons (this is my assumption), OR
-A partially-scum-driven wagon, in which case the Fate wagon is slightly less likely than otherwise to have scum on it and by proxy, the mastina wagon slightly more likely to have scum on it, but this goes to something like 66/33 rather than 50/50.

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

1 ( Secret Agent Jin, )

L- 6

Fate ---------------

4 ( Aeronaut, Aristophanes, Monokuma, Prism, )

L- 3

Monokuma -----------

2 ( Nachomamma8, Fate, )

L- 5

mastina ------------

4 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, BTD6_MAKER, Vaxkiller, )

L- 3

Aeronaut -----------

1 ( mastina, )

L- 6

Not Voting -

1 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Pine )

Here's the aforementioned switch. Prism switches off of Monokuma after Gin has left, bringing the wagon down to two voters, and Fate up to L-2.
Vaxkiller, shortly thereafter, hops off the Fate wagon and onto my wagon.
On my wagon, drealmerz/BTD6_maker remain the more probable scum.
On the Fate wagon, Aeronaut/Aristophanes/Monokuma are all possible scum.
The Fate wagon pretty much objectively sucked every step of the way. The wagon on me similarly so.

At this stage, people who look quite bad by the VCA are Monokuma/Secret Agent Jin/Aeronaut/Aristophanes, with a side of BTD6_maker/drealmerz.

And then, after this, everything goes to hell. I'm sure on future days, VCs past this point will be useful to scumhunting. I think that so much as trying on D1 would be...less than helpful for today. I can quote our last VC, though, to give the general gist of the changes:

Secret Agent Jin ---

3 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, mastina, Fate, )

L- 4

TheRealGin-N-Tonic -

2 ( Secret Agent Jin, Prism, Pine )

L- 5

Fate ---------------

3 ( SirCakez, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )

L- 4

Monokuma -----------

1 ( Nachomamma8, )

L- 6

mastina ------------

2 ( drealmerz7, BTD6_MAKER, )

L- 5

SirCakez -----------

1 ( Aeronaut, )

L- 6

Not Voting -

1 ( Monokuma, )

My wagon disintegrated. Vaxkiller went back to Fate. SirCakez for the first time went to Fate. Monokuma, interestingly enough, unvoted Fate. Prism switched off of Fate. Fate switched off of Monokuma. Aeronaut switched off of Fate. It's a whole hot mess of chaos. I'd say that this was scum being disturbed: the game had gone in their favor moments before. I was being wagoned, and Fate was being wagoned. Now I'm not being wagoned, and those extra votes have been thrown every which way, with Fate's wagon being a remnant of what it once was.

This tells me Fate's probably town, though it doesn't illuminate who is scum.

I'd place reasonable odds on Monokuma, Secret Agent Jin, decent odds on Aristophanes and Aeronaut, and some amount on drealmerz and BTD6_maker, though how much, not exactly sure.

Those six are my current focus group. I know I have about five dozen new posts to read once I post this, so maybe that'll help refine this even further.

[Nachomamma8]

Your memory is about as accurate as when you said that I've never been prodded as town.

I apologize for the level of snark contained in this post; that came out far harsher than I expected it would.
It was meant to be more playful and less complainy.

[Nachomamma8]

Although BTD6 left and that makes me sad
He never did give me the summary I asked for!

[camn]

Secret Agent Jin has been prodded.

[Fate]

^modconfirmed scum

[mastina]

This is my next scumread after Mastina. Is Mastina confirmable? I do not know for sure. If Mastina is scum, it would be trivial to claim to recruit a partner. We should wait for a while until Day 2 or 3 (probably 3) and seeing if Mastina dies or not (although scum may gambit by not killing Mastina). For now, I think I will let Mastina live.

drealmerz, first to vote me:

"Don't buy it."

SirCakez, second to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

Vaxkiller, fourth to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

BTD6_maker, third to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

Literally the entire fucking wagon, same exact reaction.
"I don't buy it", and then moving on without reevaluation.

The saddest part is there's no possible way that's the scumteam. Fuck, the most I can see as scum in there is 2/4.
But I think it's pretty clear that there's at least one scum in that grouping.

[camn]

VOTE COUNT 1 . 16

• Secret Agent Jin ---
  3 ( TheRealGin-N-Tonic, mastina, Fate, )
  L- 4
  
  
  BTD6_MAKER ---------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  TheRealGin-N-Tonic -
  3 ( Secret Agent Jin, Prism, BTD6_MAKER, Pine )
  L- 4
  
  
  Nachomamma8 --------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Fate ---------------
  3 ( SirCakez, Aristophanes, Vaxkiller, )
  L- 4
  
  
  drealmerz7 ---------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Monokuma -----------
  1 ( Nachomamma8, )
  L- 6
  
  
  mastina ------------
  1 ( drealmerz7, )
  L- 6
  
  
  Aeronaut -----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Prism --------------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  SirCakez -----------
  1 ( Aeronaut, )
  L- 6
  
  
  Vaxkiller ----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Aristophanes -------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  
  Not Voting -
  1 ( Monokuma, )

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to SUMMON CAMN'S WRATH
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-22 18:00:00)

[SirCakez]

Your memory is about as accurate as when you said that I've never been prodded as town.

In Gumball, there was a period where he voted 3 times in 6 posts.

Just spam voting is one thing. But here he's doing it whenever major wagon movements happen. He was on the Mono wagon when it happened, Prism wagon when it happened, and now SAJ wagon.

[mastina]

If you are correct, one of me/Fate/you are scum; the logic for the picks you laid out doesn't make sense otherwise. That means if we are all town, it's time to throw a good number of those assumptions out. Am I wrong?

Half.

You, Fate, and I all being town would mean Pine didn't pick any of us first. What that would mean is that Pine had someone else he wanted to pick, before all of us. That pool of players is rather limited. Pine's first pick is not going to be wasted on wifom. It's not going to be wasted on someone random. It's going to be on someone Pine thinks holds value--real, actual value to his dreamscumteam. The first assumption would be you, the second me, the third, Fate, approximately. But with all of those out, what that means is that Pine had reasons not to pick us, and had reasons to pick someone else above all of us.

Basically, his first pick is going to be sacred. His second and third picks? Oh yeah, you can throw out the majority of my logic there. Without him having drafted you, me, or Fate, that means he's already deviating significantly from the status I would by default assume him to take. But I still maintain that his FIRST pick would be someone he considered special.

Now, I'm not quite sure who exactly he would consider special outside of you/me/Fate. Aeronaut/drealmerz/Secret Agent Jin all top that list, thanks to prior game experience. (I'd include Gin, but my townread on Gin supersedes any strength behind Pine picking Gin.) Other players would

have

to be people that Pine didn't have as much experience with, and decided to choose off of him doing research on the playerlist. This is something I see as possible for second and third picks, but unlikely for his first pick, for his strongest pick, for his only guaranteed scum slot that he gets to guarantee will be scum.

So, if Fate is town (like I think), and you are town (like I hope and suspect), then the Aeronaut/drealmerz/Secret Agent Jin trio, to me, has at least one scum minimum in it, possibly 2 or even all three (unlikely as that would be).
Outside of that trio, we get outside of Pine's picks for logic. We get scumhunting-based reads. In there, Vaxkiller/SirCakez/Prism are all townreads; Aristophanes/BTD6_maker/Monokuma remain possible potential scum-picks.

The exact makeup of the team, I can't quite determine. But I think that--aside from my Prism townread--you mostly agree with my townreads, yes? You think Gin is town, you think Fate is town, you think SirCakez is town. So given that much, there's only a limited pool of people who could be scum.

[drealmerz7]

ehh, guess I'm late for the mastina push...that's fine

UNVOTE: mastina
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

ehh, guess I'm late for the mastina push...that's fine

UNVOTE: mastina
VOTE: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Excuse?

[Nachomamma8]

This is my next scumread after Mastina. Is Mastina confirmable? I do not know for sure. If Mastina is scum, it would be trivial to claim to recruit a partner. We should wait for a while until Day 2 or 3 (probably 3) and seeing if Mastina dies or not (although scum may gambit by not killing Mastina). For now, I think I will let Mastina live.

drealmerz, first to vote me:

"Don't buy it."

SirCakez, second to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

Vaxkiller, fourth to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

BTD6_maker, third to vote me:

"Don't buy it (but I'll move anyway)."

Literally the entire fucking wagon, same exact reaction.
"I don't buy it", and then moving on without reevaluation.

The saddest part is there's no possible way that's the scumteam. Fuck, the most I can see as scum in there is 2/4.
But I think it's pretty clear that there's at least one scum in that grouping.

I don't think so.
I just think we're dealing with a contingent of knuckleheads.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

HOW IN ALL OF FUCK AM I AT L-3?

[Nachomamma8]

The exact makeup of the team, I can't quite determine. But I think that--aside from my Prism townread--you mostly agree with my townreads, yes? You think Gin is town, you think Fate is town, you think SirCakez is town. So given that much, there's only a limited pool of people who could be scum.

I'm on board with the Prism townread; my reasons are probably much, much different from yours but he's right in that I'm townreading Prism despite really not wanting to townread him. Cakez could be town, but he's not a townread.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Secret Agent Jin, BTD6, Prism and Dreal. Explain your god damn votes

[drealmerz7]

I honestly don't feel like it :\

you've been scumpinging me since the beginning, it's all a haze now

if I'm wrong, well, whoops

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I honestly don't feel like it :\

you've been scumpinging me since the beginning, it's all a haze now

if I'm wrong, well, whoops

[Nachomamma8]

Secret Agent Jin, BTD6, Prism and Dreal. Explain your god damn votes

welcome back! I've responded to a little bit of SAJ stuff!

[Nachomamma8]

to the people who live close to me:

I hope you like this song.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

Heyo nacho!(that rhymed) Got my hair cut and ate dinner, just caught up and was surprised by the fuckery of a scum claiming vote and then dreal just happened.

[drealmerz7]

I happen a lot

[drealmerz7]

sometimes I happen in my pants