Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[Ms Columbo]

I know Smart is scum so I'm going to be way more confident in the push now than I was before. "It seems like you are exagerrating" is a red herring really because both of our motivations right now (as town and scum) is to get the other person lynched. So, that's not going to tell you about what alignment we are. Look at our play when another scum was still in the game. Then compare and contrast our play on D3.

This may seem like a totally random question, but it's not. Have you ever played or watched a game with yogsloth? I don't know if he plays on this site.

[BlackVoid]

I haven't.

[Ms Columbo]

But do you see that as scum, I would have a much easier chance of winning the game if I supported Prohawk rather than bus him?

Yes, I do. It was one of things I mention in my first read on you. So yeah, I'm paranoid.

[BlackVoid]

Also, did you catch that Smart was at L-2 without either me or Prohawk voting him at the time meaning he was an easy lynch if I was scum and was talking to Prohawk during the day?

If Smart really was town, I'd know that a Prohawk lynch makes it hard to lynch him because of how much they pushed each other. I'd also know that bussing Prohawk means I would HAVE to lynch Smart to win. The alternative of lynching him before Prohawk flipped would have been way more appealing.

On the other hand, do you see how easy it would have been for Smart to win by bussing Prohawk at that time? The Prohawk-Tenshii connection was being thrown around and I basically said Prohawk and Dun were the team. That's two mislynches in the bag. The only reason he hasn't won a month ago is because of how hard I tried to read Dun and take things slowly and how much I'm fighting now to save the game.

[Ms Columbo]

I haven't.

He's a player on my home site. He has an great scum game. And you keep reminding me of him. He would make a play like bussing PH instead of going a safer route because scum would never do that.

[BlackVoid]

No wonder you are paranoid then, lol.

But that's why I keep asking you to look at my scumgame. Then you'd know I don't have a great scum game and that'll help you read me. I'm really straightforward as scum. I wouldn't make a play that makes it unnecessarily harder for me to win.

[BlackVoid]

Also, if Smart was scum, what other options did he have after I came in and said I wanted to vote Prohawk?

[Ms Columbo]

Also, did you catch that Smart was at L-2 without either me or Prohawk voting him at the time meaning he was an easy lynch if I was scum and was talking to Prohawk during the day?

If Smart really was town, I'd know that a Prohawk lynch makes it hard to lynch him because of how much they pushed each other. I'd also know that bussing Prohawk means I would HAVE to lynch Smart to win. The alternative of lynching him before Prohawk flipped would have been way more appealing.

On the other hand, do you see how easy it would have been for Smart to win by bussing Prohawk at that time? The Prohawk-Tenshii connection was being thrown around and I basically said Prohawk and Dun were the team. That's two mislynches in the bag. The only reason he hasn't won a month ago is because of how hard I tried to read Dun and take things slowly and how much I'm fighting now to save the game.

Everything you say makes a lot of sense, it's just my gut is not there yet.

Your one scum game here is a small sample. Anything available on another site?

Your last question - he could have went after you or Dun. I'm not sure he needed to vote PH yet. Eh...PH's vote on Jaack looked so bad.

[Ms Columbo]

Hit submit to quickly, but at even with PH's play at that point. He couldn't know how gamma, dun and zzzx would react. The first two seemed pretty pro-PH.

[Ms Columbo]

I got to get some sleep. I'll be around after lunch tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

I want to keep my identity across the internet separate for safety. Sorry about that. I know one is a small sample size so I understand it if you take it with a grain of salt.

For my last question, going after me or Dun would have been incredibly risky and here's why:

Jaack and I were both pushing Prohawk. There's a chance ZZZX might vote him. It definitely seemed like Prohawk was more likely to get lynched than me or Dun. There is very little chance I was going to get lynched D2 because anyone thinking I was scum with Prohawk had to vote Prohawk because he fit into more scumteams. In fact, there was very little chance I'd get lynched before Prohawk did.

Between Prohawk and Dun, Prohawk seemed to be a likelier lynch. Jaack was hard-pushing that lynch and I said I was going to vote Prohawk. There were also a lot of people who townread Dun. How would it have looked for Smart if he pushed me or Dun and Prohawk winded up getting lynched?

[BlackVoid]

Hit submit to quickly, but at even with PH's play at that point. He couldn't know how gamma, dun and zzzx would react. The first two seemed pretty pro-PH.

But does he have any motivation to save Prohawk in the first place if bussing him means the odds of him are ridiculously high? For a scum-Smart, bussing is actually the safest move at this point. There were already two town connections to Prohawk. To bus and seal himself as the least likely partner is great for him. Why take the risk of pushing outside Prohawk and looking worse than me in case he's unsuccessful in getting Dun lynched and Prohawk got lynched instead?

[BlackVoid]

*odds of him winning.

[Something_Smart]

@Smart

Why do you think BV voiced FOS on PH and then voted him instead of voting for you or pushing another wagon? Wouldn’t it have been better for scum-BV not to bus his partner?

I think that it was a reaction to the universally townread Jaack noticing a connection between the two. BlackVoid based his arguments for voting ProHawk, rather than his other scumreads me and Dunhallym, on theory, and he probably could have found a justification for a reversal. In any event, he was testing the winds.

#439 - I didn’t follow what you said about post #423, regarding where the post came relative to BV’s catch-up. Can you explain that? It may not be relevant at this point, I just didn’t get it.

ProHawk was trying to throw shade onto Jaack for believing that ProHawk never scumread Tenshii. ProHawk's argument was to show how much distancing the two had done, including the fact that Tenshii's replacement said he was probably going to vote ProHawk. (A response which, incidentally, makes it seem very much like a planned bus!) But that made no sense as BlackVoid's post was new information that occurred after Jaack's post, and rather than ProHawk suggesting that Jaack reevaluate his belief based on that new information, he jumps right to accusing him-- as desperate scum would.

#500 – In your description of play history, everything you said seems factual. But just looking at your record, it seemed like you down played your ability as scum. You survived to the end in a couple and lasted late game in others (I consider this an indication of ability regardless of the game outcome). This is more an observation than a question. Thoughts?

I don't think my record necessarily tells the full story either; I have survived to the end or near the end in 6 scumgames:
Newbie 1663- I had no meta this game, and also the town was pretty poor with the cop claiming unprompted D1 and a newbie replacing in and quickhammering a townie D2.
Micro 567- The way the setup was designed, this 7:2 game reached endgame at 3:2, after only 2 mislynches, something which nobody expected.
Open 624- I did play pretty well this game, but it was multiball so I could genuinely scumhunt.
Mini 1818- This setup was also weird, with a scum non-consecutive day-executioner plus a beloved princess plus an SK that together allowed the game to end with only one true mislynch.
Walking Dead Season Finale- My hydra and a scumpartner were the two leading wagons D1, and our partner was lynched after we were bussed by all three buddies. Those flips earned us a ton of towncred, which is the only reason we survived so long.
New York 194- I think I played well this game too. But I just couldn't keep it up by the end and the setup was such that I had no chance to win if my partner was lynched, and he was obvscumming, so I burned all my towncred trying to save him.

Overall, of these 6, I'd say I legitimately played well in two of them (Open 624 and NY 194), and the others were just lucky circumstances. And, ironically, I didn't even win either of those two. So you see why I am not exactly praising my scum ability.

#606 you re-evaluate BV’s play from a he must-be-scum angle:
“119, which is conspicuous in its being a non-interaction, where ProHawk makes a readlist but doesn't include Tenshii. (He does, incidentally, include my predecessor, placed in a null area where he would certainly know not to place his scumbuddy.”

That post was in regards to Jaack’s plan of lynching one of {Dunhallym, Jin, ArcAngel}. Why would he include Tenshii?

'Tis a fair point, and a reason why I should be reading context instead of just ISOs. (But that's so much harder...)
That said, it's not as though there was no reason to include Tenshii, and the fact does remain that he chose not to, but I'll grant that that isn't really a strong point. (Although it is still a point that he put me at the spot where scum stereotypically put their buddies, no doubt with knowledge of that fact.)

Later in that 606: "181, where Tenshii jumps off ProHawk and onto my slot. No mention of why he doesn't scumread ProHawk as much,

nor why he scumreads ArcAngel more.

"

(Emphasis added) In the next post Tenshii explains his take on ArcAngle

These posts stuck out as being troublesome.

He gave what was essentially a one-liner about overreaction to an accusation that was never there, which from what I've heard is indicative of nothing other than ArcAngel's trouble with reading comprehension. (Source) Tenshii's reasons are both weak, and it's pretty clear (at least to me-- I hope it's clear to you) that his vote changes were predetermined and then he came up with reasons to match them, as scum do.

[BlackVoid]

On Smart's wall, let me know if you want this elaborated on, I'll try to keep this short:

1. Someone noticing a connection between two scum is a reason

not

to bus because the cred would be limited as people still wonder after the flip.
2. Smart has many scumgames where he bussed and survived till lategame. He's playing them down by saying that most of them were an exception in some way.
3. He and Prohawk putting each other where scum put their buddies is a point against them, not for. So is Prohawk brushing aside AA9 to encourage the SAJ push.
4. Tenshii votehopping around was actually a towntell. Scum tend to switch their votes less because they need to post new explanations and new stances.
5. What motivation do I have to "test the winds" for a Prohawk lynch as opposed to just townread him so he's not even on the lynch table to begin with?

I mean, your theory is that I bussed Prohawk to make it more difficult for me to win because a guy you know likes making absurd plays. I'm not like that. I've been either staying up late or waking up in the middle of the night almost every night for the past week. If you honestly think I'd be setting up absurd challenges for myself and messing up my sleep schedule for nothing when I could have just teamed up with Prohawk and won, you're jumping through hoops to see me as scum when I'm not.

The simpler explanation is that Smart bussed because it would win him the game. Both he and Prohawk were under-fire and individually getting votes but no one was calling them partners together. It would have been difficult to drive mislynches they want. Bussing each other gets them towncred when one of them go down so the other can carry the torch. Smart bussing Prohawk is ideal since he could lynch Dun and me.

[BlackVoid]

@Columbo - in fact, would you mind looking at 390 and 398 to see where Gamma and Jaack put Dun in their readslists? How likely do you think a D2 Dun lynch really was? If scum-Smart wanted to mislynch Dun, he'd have to really commit to persuading me and Jaack to switch when we both preferred Prohawk. And if he failed, he's now tied to Prohawk whereas before he was clean of associatives. Do you think any decent scum would take that risk? Prohawk's 409 is also relevant. He was townreading Dun. How would it look if he suddenly switched around and voted her? Lynching Dun isn't really a viable option for a scum-Smart. Lynching Smart would have been a viable option for scum-me because two votes and Prohawk was already pushing him so no sudden change of stance needed.

[BlackVoid]

Smart's whole "he could have switched away from Prohawk" is just trying to play on your paranoia. Anyone could have hypothetically changed their reads at any time. But I didn't. I voted Prohawk, I stuck to it and ensured he got lynched when not doing so would mean a very likely win were I scum.

[Ms Columbo]

@mod - do we have a specific time in place for the deadline?

[BlackVoid]

By the way, @Columbo - curious what is setting your gut off against me.

[Ms Columbo]

Honestly Columbo, you are focusing on things that aren't indicative of alignment. What you should be looking at is who had motivation to bus Prohawk. From your POV, we both voted scum but one of us bussed.

Is Smart's Prohawk vote a gamewinning move if he bussed when he did?

Is my push on Prohawk a gamewinning move if I was scum?

That's what will tell you the difference in alignment.

I know Smart is scum so I'm going to be way more confident in the push now than I was before. "It seems like you are exagerrating" is a red herring really because both of our motivations right now (as town and scum) is to get the other person lynched. So, that's not going to tell you about what alignment we are. Look at our play when another scum was still in the game. Then compare and contrast our play on D3.

I disagree about it being a red herring or that how a player states things is NAI. That's bull. Town should not knowingly lie or stretch the truth to make their case. Town may at times due this unknowingly or out of frustration, but as a rule a thumb, scum do this, not town.

I revisited the progression on D3. Something I noticed that I hadn't before, was that by the point you first indicated a suspicion on PH, PH was already started to flail and Jacck was already pointing it out. PH hadn't nailed his coffin yet, but the lid was closing. You could have went a direction other than PH, but it would have been riskier than what you implied.

Focusing on Smart's participation D3 almost seems hypocritical when you consider your predecessor's play. You claim Tensheii was super townie, yet he was prodded twice and then replaced due to inactivity. Why should I read Smart's D3 play as scum and Tenshii's as town?

[Ms Columbo]

By the way, @Columbo - curious what is setting your gut off against me.

That's a great question. And I've been trying to find a way to articulate it. It's mainly a difference in feeling. It feels like you are trying to sell me something. I don't get than from Smart.

The things you indicate you would only do as town are things I've watched scum do. I don't know what your scum game is like and one game is not enough to establish a meta.

Hands down, you outplayed Smart D3 (as either alignment), but D3 is not the entirety of the game. It is a big part in why were are still here debating this.

[BlackVoid]

I never knowingly lied or stretched the truth. What I was saying was a red herring is most of the things you questioned me on aren't directly indicative of alignment. I was hoping you'd be investigating more deeply where we got our reads from or what we were thinking at certain points. Stuff like the fluff post Smart made about Trump are more of a distraction.

When I replaced in, Jaack was the only one pushing Prohawk. Smart had expressed suspicion but never pushed him. I think Jaack said Prohawk was "flailing" as rhetoric or to sell his case but I don't think the lynch was already set in stone at the time I replaced in. There were still a lot of people townreading Prohawk and he may have legitimately thought he could get Jaack lynched. Which post are you referring to by the way?

I've been trying to explain this but here's the major difference between Tenshii and Smart - Tenshii never posted strategically to avoid prods. He posted when he could. He got prodded from time to time. When he was engaging Prohawk, he posted a lot in a short time frame. It was unself-conscious and natural. He WAS replaced out. Smart is still here. Can you see the difference? That's because Smart was posting just enough to stay in the game. There's a difference between inactive players and active lurkers.

[BlackVoid]

That's a great question. And I've been trying to find a way to articulate it. It's mainly a difference in feeling. It feels like you are trying to sell me something. I don't get than from Smart.

The things you indicate you would only do as town are things I've watched scum do. I don't know what your scum game is like and one game is not enough to establish a meta.

Ah, that makes sense. Out of curiosity, how many times have you been in lylo before? Also, curious how many mafia games you played total.

I've been trying extremely hard to sell you on Smart as scum because he is and I need to do that to win the game for town. I'd probably also need to do it if I were scum so it's null. Right now, both me and Smart are in identical situations where we both need to get the other lynched in order to win whereas you win by choosing correctly. I have nothing to figure out right now. I'm not scumhunting. I already know everything there is to know about the game: who all the town are and who all the scum are. I have the same information scum do and my job is sell you on the fact that it's true. Only difference is, I'm trying to sell you on something I know to be true rather than selling you something I know to be false. To be fair, I would try hard even as scum although I genuinely don't think I would be as motivated as I am here if I didn't rightfully believe that what I'm saying and knowing that I'm town and it's just a matter of communicating that effectively.

Smart knows he hasn't got the truth on his side. He hasn't got the evidence on his side. His major advantage is that he knew you entered the day pre-biased towards him so if he could just respond to questions and survives, he would be fine. His play I think would actually be majorly different if he were town. I think he'd check in more often, he'd be a little more concerned with how things are going.

Why were asking me for additional games if you're not even going to read the one game that you do have available?

[BlackVoid]

Saying I'm selling you too hard is a self-defeating argument because you came into the day about to make the wrong decision. If I didn't explain all the ways Smart's behavior made sense to a scum wincon, we'd have already lost the game. But selling you on Smart as scum makes you hesitate because you seem to think only scum have motivation to try and persuade you when in reality, both sides do. So, I'm not going to stop that. Your gut needs recalibration.

I think you're probably coming from a good place though since play intended purely to convince is probably scummy earlier in the game when town still has to scumhunt. But how I and Smart are playing and making arguments on D4 is mostly indicative of our playstyles rather than our alignments. In fact, there are some people who when they become conftown in lylo, insist that both other players stop talking entirely. I don't think that's a smart idea because they haven't played the same way throughout the game and how they explain their previous actions is alignment-indicative. But the point is, the majority of alignment-indicative things we've done have been before this lylo.

I'm not sure where you got the idea that I was exaggerated anything. I didn't. If you look at my response to your initial question, I explained all my points there - the point about ZZZX as well as Smart's activity level pointing to him being not really motivated to do much. You can't ignore such a huge part of scum-motivated play by saying Smart's activity pattern D3 is not alignment-indicative. It is. Everyone in the dead thread is probably saying "Smart is just coasting, how is he getting away with it?"

[BlackVoid]

The things you indicate you would only do as town are things I've watched scum do.

Are you saying you've never seen scum coast through the game when town argue amongst themselves?