Project ELO (Dataset released)
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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I am sorry but what fitness is that? Can I have a name? I want to study more?
My first impression you uses entropy, but that's wrong."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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It's been a long time since I took a stats course so formal names escape me. Essentially it's a maximum likelihood calculation, maximizing the calculated likelihood (prob of outcome in trial 1 * prob in trial 2...) just using the simplification that log (p1*p2*...) = log(p1)+log(p2)..., and then just maximizing the log of the probability function instead of the probability function itself, which has the bene fit of not having to muck about with maximizing valies that are like 5x10^-100 or the like, which excel can't really process.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Loopdan Mafia Scum
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I was also town (as Loopdan) in 1723, 1729, and 1758.In post 148, mhsmith0 wrote:@loop:
I've got you as 4-3 town, 2-0 scum. My guess is three of the games are your TTTT alt?
town games:
1711
1725
1736
1739
1746
1756
1767
Thanks for both of your work on this, btw. I, for one, think it is a worthwhile project and am interested in following the results.-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Any reason why logloss is an inferior choice? A little bit of opportunity to study here."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@realeo: it sounds like what I did basically is logloss based on
https://www.r-bloggers.com/making-sense ... hmic-loss/
Tho I could be misreading. I freely admit my stats terminology knowledge isn't what it used to be.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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@loop:
1723 - mod misspelling (loop)
1729/1758 - weird spacing error (some mods don't seem to use regular spaces and it screws up match function)Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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My brain!In post 154, mhsmith0 wrote:@realeo: it sounds like what I did basically is logloss based on
https://www.r-bloggers.com/making-sense ... hmic-loss/
Tho I could be misreading. I freely admit my stats terminology knowledge isn't what it used to be.
You are right. I was confused, "Why logloss is -142.""The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Adding those loopdan games you get:
Spoiler: updated table with loopdan
I'm probably going to have to spend some time working on data corrections in more detail, but probably not an ASAp thing, especially since realeo seems to be working on it currently as well.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Logloss is a positive number. I assume + 0.627?In post 149, mhsmith0 wrote:Average error = -0.627."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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@Realeo, If you can add Open games that would be suptastic.
I just want to see how I rank when every thing is accounted for.
I prolly won't be super high on the list after the opens are done, even thought I have a 3/5 (3 out of 5) record with opens. (the last 3 have been wins so don't know if you will get to them for a while)
Also, I think the majority of my games fall under Newbie, Normal and Open (16/23)... record for those is 10/16.I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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@LQ: Patience, my dear. Data entry is more asshole than you can imagine.What makes Open even tougher is that unlike Newbies or Normal, nobody compiled it.
So my logloss is + 0.569, so currently ELO is better than multivariate log. regression. However, none of us did Cross Validation so overfitting is really dangerous.
So both ELO and multivariate is trained using Newbies data. We can use Normals as test data.
I will use Normals game where 1) solid-ball and 2)non-tie result as test data."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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Yikes. If no one records opens you def have your hands full, that is no joke. You got some sick determination there.In post 160, Realeo wrote:@LQ: Patience, my dear. Data entry is more asshole than you can imagine.What makes Open even tougher is that unlike Newbies or Normal, nobody compiled it.
So my logloss is + 0.569, so currently ELO is better than multivariate log. regression. However, none of us did Cross Validation so overfitting is really dangerous.
So both ELO and multivariate is trained using Newbies data. We can use Normals as test data.
I will use Normals game where 1) solid-ball and 2)non-tie result as test data.
I hope you share when you get all your data needed for all Normals and Newbies.Last edited by LicketyQuickety on Sun Jan 22, 2017 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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Yes, except 1 tied game and the newbie game that is just on the book."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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Mildly curious what basis you're using to compare ELO to logloss, since ELO isn't a probabilistic formula. I suspect there are also material differences in how fitted your data is, since I believe you're explicitly solving for ALL players, while I'm cutting off anyone with games <8 in a given alignment. Adding in, say, all players with at least four games in a given alignment would doubtless lower my error value quite a bit, but at the cost of introducing potentially severe overfitting issues that largely can't be measured.In post 160, Realeo wrote:So my logloss is + 0.569, so currently ELO is better than multivariate log. regression. However, none of us did Cross Validation so overfitting is really dangerous.
I also get the sense that you're combining ratings between town and scum (and sk?) for each player, and I'm skeptical that this is optimal, as there are a number of players who are MUCH better at one alignment or the other (nacho basically jumps out of the page on this basis, fwiw, but is merely the most obvious example as opposed to the only one).
Ps yes the logloss based on the given definition would be the positive of the number I gave.
Pps I may also have mire material data issues than you do, but since I don't know your feed and what corrections were made I can't really comment in any informed manner.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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1. You can derive probability from Elo rating.In post 163, mhsmith0 wrote:
Mildly curious what basis you're using to compare ELO to logloss, since ELO isn't a probabilistic formula. I suspect there are also material differences in how fitted your data is, since I believe you're explicitly solving for ALL players, while I'm cutting off anyone with games <8 in a given alignment.In post 160, Realeo wrote:So my logloss is + 0.569, so currently ELO is better than multivariate log. regression. However, none of us did Cross Validation so overfitting is really dangerous.
2. I did solve all, but when I use the ELO to predict the data, I cut off at >= 5 games due to the hypothesized non-converging ELO.
Which is why I proposed using Normals as test data.Adding in, say, all players with at least four games in a given alignment would doubtless lower my error value quite a bit, but at the cost of introducing potentially severe overfitting issues that largely can't be measured.
1. Since I do have plans for splitting it, I treat it as benchmark algorithm.I also get the sense that you're combining ratings between town and scum (and sk?) for each player, and I'm skeptical that this is optimal, as there are a number of players who are MUCH better at one alignment or the other (nacho basically jumps out of the page on this basis, fwiw, but is merely the most obvious example as opposed to the only one).
2. I trained using Newbies data only."The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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I discovered a bug in my coding...
...and discover extra 200 possible misspelling.
"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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Don't you dare fucking give up this thing man.In post 165, Realeo wrote:I discovered a bug in my coding...
...and discover extra 200 possible misspelling.
I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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Realeo Jack of All Trades
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"The debate on whether short multi postings or a long wall of post is good or not is like a debate on gun control--we would never understand each other and we have to make peace with it." -Realeo
I'm mabye a serious player, but I'm capable of joke. Ok?-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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- Location: Where the moon and the sea meet.
What did you give to me? I mean, this power - its absolutely incredible!
I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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OK I've built in some of the data realeo gave, updated #s:
Spoiler: v1.001 results
Spoiler: corrections list
Interesting changes:
Rask's rating went way up from adding 1734 - town!BBT had a negative modifier and everyone else was "other", so that was a meaningful positive for his rating to be associated with that win
Loop's rating went way down from adding 1723 - scum!nacho has a huge positive modifier (towns are 12-5 against nacho), so adding town!Loop to a scum win in that one really swung his ratingLast edited by mhsmith0 on Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Loopdan Mafia Scum
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Clearly the methodology is flawed.In post 170, Raskolnikov wrote:Take that loopdan!
The painful part about that update is that in 1723 I replaced into a cop slot day2 that had failed to investigate N1. Then I copped a guilty on Nacho N2 but was NK'd.
I guess that's the way this works, though. I'm sure I've been carried to a win as often as I've had bad breaks.-
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mhsmith0 Balancing Act
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*remembers 1756*
*hardens heart against Loopdan*
Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
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Loopdan Mafia Scum
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gigabyteTroubadour Jack of All Trades
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but for me........................... a true legend...................
((i didnt think u were that bad btw in that game just town sucked as a cohesive unit))i no longer strictly go by they/them and honestly prefer she/her but they/them's fine if you're used to it i guess
☭ I'm coming for that toothbrush ☭
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