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Post Post #4425 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:33 am

Post by Alisae »

Then he looks defensive and he gets scumread even more for defending himself?
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Post Post #4426 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:34 am

Post by EchoVision »

In post 4421, MortFeld wrote:
In post 4398, EchoVision wrote:
In post 4367, MortFeld wrote:
Spoiler: Mort Wraith notes
Wraith

so no RVS vote to start. I never like when people decline to RVS in their first post but it's prob NAI
when I read Debi it was CLEAR to me that she was newb and pulled a ratio out of nowhere. It's one of the
reasons I strongly townread the slot. Scum doesn't come up with an absurd hypothetical ratio and spend
paragraphs analyzing the math around it when scum knows how many people are on their team. Wraith
assumed two things:
1. that Debi's ratio implied foreknowledge and because of this
2. that the setup was multiball
That the setup is actually multiball could be confbias but I do agree with Severa here. Why would town ever
think that Debi's ratio implied foreknowledge? 9/19 is absurd and everyone including Wraith pointed this out.
Yet Wraith, rather than doing what (?) Creature (? Don't remember who this was might have been Pine) did
and repeat "Adapt" 30 times, took Debi at face value. This belies a paranoia that I don't think is town.
Arguments against this are essentially "But Wraith has done towny things" and "This is reachy" so I'm
keeping these in mind as I read.
Wraith continues to maintain that Debi has foreknowledge. It is not a possibility in Wraith's mind that Debi
is newb and has no idea what she is talking about.
more of Wraith's not allowing that Debi is newb.
Wraith allows that Debi might be newb.
Ircher says 'yo dude you're assumin a lot and it ain't helpful' Wraith says 'nah it is helpful bro'
starts off towny. Alisae's vote was awful. But I can see scum!Wraith making that post assuming Alisae is
not on his scumteam. Especially without even a vote, just like 'yo look at this scummery!' He then goes on to say
he doesn't like rb's entrance but doesn't say why (for the record, I've seen town rb enter other games in a very
similar way) and he townleans Echo and Grey. Echo+Wraith is Severa's proposed scumteam and Grey is
confscum, so /shrug idk imma keep reading.
is grosss accusing now conftown rb of a scumslip and then spending two paragraphs speculating about
multiball. I get that multiball/no multiball is part of the basis for his rb vote, but that honestly makes it worse
for me. Maybe I am bad but as town I wasn't even thinking about multiball before it was confirmed.
does Grey make this vote if he and Wraith are a scumteam? Probably not, imo
Wraith has already said he thinks Alisae is lynchbait () and that he shouldn't lynch lynchbait that day,
but now he's 180ing and focusing on Ali's Pine townread - which is a bad townread yes but stuff like that is exactly
why Ali is considered lynchbait. He also recalls her Wraith vote which I get, it's a bad vote. But it feels like he
tosses it in with other pieces of 'evidence' as part of an Ali case, given that nobody latched onto it originally. He's
also explicitly fence sitting between rb and Ali wagons.
apologizes for Debi vote… NAI. I've seen both town and scum do this. Reading the rest of 681 it honestly looks
really town. I agree with a lot of what he says and it's really measured, objective, and gamesolvy. His reads are
confusing though for their lack of Dunn and LUV who had both been fairly active.
so this is a D7 flashwagon? Hm. Sitting out is NAI I think but I don't like using unmentionable player trends as
justification for a read. Not sure if it's actually anti-town.
ugghhhh these walls I hate walls (knowing full well I am creating some - I would never ever do this
if I didn't replace in after 150 pages). Don't like some of his reads. HS' 1007 is not that bad. Townreads Grey
(though I do highly doubt they're on a scumteam). Don't get the Alisae read, gotta actually read 1097. In general
the reads are based on how much sense players make - not sure if that shows scum/town intent.
ok I guess this could be town. I don't think it's too arguable than an Alisae lynch would be pro-town in
some respects.
Dude I can't deal with Wraith's playstyle. He doesn't even link posts.
why is he scumreading Gin now? (ok, I can see this) and the vig claim. Given that Gin was actually
fakeclaiming I guess I can see this. But you've been saying Gin is the voice of reason all game and now a post from
AA and Gin's claim that you don't believe transform him from TOP TOWNREAD to SCUMREAD… a little fishy
Hmm. Wraith insists on a Gin lynch a lot. Could be that he believes the claim and wants to push the Vig lynch
through.
Disclaimer, I am skimming. Eyes are getting tired.
Census. What was the percentage of people who believed Gin vs people who didn't? Clearly he was lynched so.
Dunnstral's is pinging me.
grossssssss why is Alisae town now?? This renews the idea of Wraith+Greyslot scumteam. honestly
looks like the reads you'd get if you knew it wasn't multiball.
Taking a break bc sleep.

TL;DR Wraith might be town. But I don't like at all and there are enough weird poorly justified switches in opinion to give me pause. Could be explained by Wraith's constant missing a lot and catching up, or that could be a built-in excuse for having reads on the periphery.
SEVERA TAKE FUCKING NOTES THIS IS HOW YOU MAKE A CASE
I don't like this at all. As annoying as Ali's tone is, she's right. Echo has been taking a stance on Wraith: Wraith is not scummy and nobody has made a case (until Mort). But Severa has made a case; in fact, a large portion of my case comes from Severa. So Echo either
1. doesn't understand the case
2. doesn't think it legitimately shows scum intent or
3. understands it but doesn't think it overrides whatever towny things Wraith has done.

In each case there's a burden on Echo that he hasn't fulfilled. In 1. he should work to understand Severa's case instead of yelling over and over that there is no case. In 2. he should explain why, but since 2. implies ~1. I don't think 2. is the case. In 3. he should explain why Wraith is town (what Ali said).

I don't agree with telling players how they should play but completely disregarding the reasons a wagon has formed is not pro-town.
You keep saying he's shown a case, but I read through his ISO and didn't see shit for a case. Show me the case please...
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Post Post #4427 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:36 am

Post by Alisae »

In post 4415, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Also he did vote Wraith I added it to Q+ I guess because I was thinking I hadn't seen him post much in a while and wondered why he wasn't voting Wraith now or something, didn't finish reading. beh.

VOTE: SlickDilinger

Just gonna go back to this if people are fine with Severa
Why do I get the feeling you are avoiding the Wraith wagon as well?
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Post Post #4428 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:36 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

In post 4425, Alisae wrote:Then he looks defensive and he gets scumread even more for defending himself?

Aren't you scumreading him? Cause this would be a really bad post if you were.
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Post Post #4429 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:37 am

Post by Alisae »

Echo I still want you to explain to me why Wraith is town.

pedit: I don't see how that would be a bad post?
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Post Post #4430 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:39 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

What did you intend to get across with that?
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Post Post #4431 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 5:42 am

Post by Alisae »

Isn't being hyper defensive bad when you're the main focus?
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Post Post #4432 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:06 am

Post by MortFeld »

In post 4431, Alisae wrote:Isn't being hyper defensive bad when you're the main focus?
To an extent but you're completely missing the point. If Wraith is town he needs to put effort into not letting a townie ( himself) be lynched.

I want to literally stop responding to your posts. Also you're scumreading Wraith so if he's scummy for defending himself but no defense leaves your vote on him, there's no situation where you don't vote Wraith. Stuff like this makes me think you could actually be scum because these little jabs you do are not game solving
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Post Post #4433 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:07 am

Post by MortFeld »

Echo I saw your post. Read the second paragraph of my case if you can't understand what Servera is saying
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Post Post #4434 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:11 am

Post by MortFeld »

I also haven't forgotten your weird reaction to me right when I replaced in.
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Post Post #4435 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 6:12 am

Post by Alisae »

Okay I'm just derping left and right.
I'll just come back when someone has something to talk to me about.
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Post Post #4436 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:32 am

Post by Wraith »

Okay let's do this again.

Spoiler: Catch-up Wall
* My townread on Ircherslot is quickly reinforced. It was a fucking slog sitting there waiting for other players to stop being apathetic and start scumhunting.
* I'm kind of surprised dreal and Echo are putting so much effort into defending me.
* Since dreal's playstyle in this game has essentially just been "be pissy at everyone except Wraith" it's still impossible for me to confidently gauge his alignment. That said his continued insistence upon an Alisae policy lynch (as of page 160) is not good.
* #4011 is nonsense and a complete misrep. I didn't have a problem with people FoSing me for those posts until later this day, because people using that as the sole basis for pushing my lynch are just tunneling like crazy. And considering I've now explained twice now that that was a result of me badly misinterpreting Debi's original post and everybody seems to have ignored that it's pretty damn frustrating, yeah.
* HS is really inconsistent with his read of me. He's scumread me for the multiball stuff like Alisae and Severa, yet didn't stick with voting for me earlier in the day, and only now decides to rejoin the wagon? Almost nothing has changed since he originally unvoted me and #4018 - pretty much just Severa replacing in and pushing me and that push gaining momentum. The reasoning for HS's scumread hasn't changed or been elaborated upon. It seems really wishy-washy and opportunistic.
* #4048 seriously? If people have a problem with dreal pushing a policy lynch on Alisae do those same people have a problem with this push to policy lynch dreal?
* #4057 I've already acknowledged that the ridiculous leap to a conclusion I made there was indeed asinine. Like I've said twice now, I badly, badly misinterpreted Debi's post to be a scumslip on setup speculation when it was just a silly hypothetical on how Gin and Pine could end up as scum together. I didn't realize it until later.
* #4070 you say this as a joke but this is literally what Kyouko was pushing earlier, vice the lynching me in favor of "letting me get shot by the rival scumteam."
* #4088 this seems like a pretty baffling reversal to me. I was under the impression that Dunn scumread me strongly, so I don't understand why he isn't willing to lynch me and he hasn't elaborated on why he isn't.
* #4092/4096 this is a good point by Alisae. This reversal is pretty baffling to me as well. I've been strongly townreading Creature up to this point and suddenly I have a seed of doubt in my mind.
* #4102 @Creature: Big difference between Open and Closed setups.
* #4104 see
this
is a completely fair deduction. Nevertheless it also feels like deliberate projection, indirectly defending Kyouko by using my own accusations and logic against me.
* #4116 where the fuck this MortFeld scumread came is just baffling.
* #4119 Severa's continuous habit of making sweeping statements regarding alignments and affiliations without elaborating on why she has those reads is why I still scumread that slot instead of say, Titus or MortFeld. It feels disingenuous because Severa can do a sudden retraction or reversal on some of her reads and the rest of us can't get an idea as to why.
* #4157 Titus starting to feel my pain. This day became so lethargic just before the string of replacements, it was infuriating to be confident in a scumread and feel like nobody was bothering to pay attention. I guess I got my wish and it backfired spectacularly - now we finally have active players it's that the two most prolific posters since are thoroughly locked into a tunnel of me and are essentially strongarming all the apathetic sheep into following.
* #4176 Dunn is a total fucking mystery to me still. It seems like the wind was taken out of his sails when his fake guilty result didn't gain traction.
* #4199 Slick is still fucking coasting and it is infuriating.
* #4226 Hypocritical of me to complain about Slick coasting when AA is doing the same. I at least has a townread on AA before but I'm definitely going to have to re-evaluate on him. And considering he was a leading voice against Gin even before the fake Vig claim (IIRC) that's rather suspicious of me that he immediately went to lurking after Gin flipped town.
* #4258 what prompted the reversal from wanting to push AA earlier, Mort? Usually Mort has been pretty good about explaining his train of thought so this omission here is confusing.
* #4296 Am I the only one who thinks this is an alarming red flag?
* #4297 and this shit is even worse
* #4336 Again this setup/nightkill spec by Kyouko reeks to me.
* #4349 It was very obviously a joke and not even a reaction test, and I have no idea why a town player would push this misinterpretation.
* #4367 I think Mort's comments don't line up with his conclusion. Throughout his wall he's highlighting primarily reasons why I'm scummy yet concludes that I "might be town" at the end? That wall doesn't sit right with me.
* #4370 What the fuck is this enormous 180? Kyouko has been confidently saying that I am scum ALL DAY and suddenly gets cold feet on a wagon with momentum "because he doesn't like the company." What difference does the company make if you've been so confident about me being scum all freaking day? ESPECIALLY in a multiball game - if you have conviction that I'm scum, why should you care if other scumreads of yours are on the wagon with you? Scum is scum. It screams to me that either your scumread of me is disingenuous or that you plan to get rid of me in some of other way - I've personally believed most of the day now that you're scum who thinks they've pegged me as rival scum and plans to shoot me tonight, therefore lynching me isn't your strongest priority.
* #4382 Alisae, Severa has been lining up lynches ever since she replaced in. Are you only now noticing it? If you think Severa is scummy for lining up lynches then why are you allowing him to pocket you for this wagon on me? Though now that I think about it that's a distinct difference between Alisae and Kyouko - Alisae thinks he's on a wagon with bad company and stays on it, while Kyouko wouldn't. I just thought I'd point out that stark contrast.
* #4398 It's actually not, Echo, considering the comments and conclusion are totally inconsistent.
* #4415 Kill this with fire please. Kyouko's reads and votes are not genuine.


The tl;dr takeaways here are:

1. Kyouko is just prancing around with red flags and an alarm going off at this point. His votes and reads lack all conviction. I want to again point out in the particular the contrast between him and Alisae - Alisae thinks Severa is scummy but sticks with the wagon on me because his SR on me has conviction and being with bad company on a wagon is meaningless in multiball; Kyouko has earlier expressed a belief that I am scum and will be shot by the other scumteam tonight, then later hops off my wagon because of "bad company." Again, I've been under the impression for a while that Kyouko is scum who thinks I am scum and plans to shoot me N2, so lynching me today is unnecessary.

2. Severa is acting really scummy but as Titus said it's difficult to gauge whether or not he's just haughty and wearing blinders to everything or is actually scum knowingly pushing a mislynch.

3. I was pretty confident about townreading MortFeld until his big wall about my ISO. Yet again, his comments on my posts don't line up with his conclusion about my alignment.

This was a slog, arguably worse than earlier. So many players are STILL being apathetic as hell and it's allowing three or four players absolutely dominate all discussion. It's allowed the wagon on me to gain momentum and this late in the day it's probably going to inevitably go through as time ticks down. I've been extremely busy this week so far and if I don't get a chance to post again before a lynch goes through I just want to say Kyouko is 100% scum and should be lynched tomorrow after I flip town.
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Post Post #4437 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:41 am

Post by The Rebbe »

I'm still going through everything. My biggest town reads right now are on Titus and Mortfield. I would prefer to lynch ssbm today over wraith
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Post Post #4438 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:42 am

Post by Creature »

Hmm, not sure if I stick with this wagon or I switch to ssbm_Kyouko.
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Post Post #4439 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:42 am

Post by Creature »

I'll probably end up lynching both at some point.
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Post Post #4440 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:43 am

Post by The Rebbe »

VOTE: ssbm

I'll explain once I get back to my laptop.

I have no idea why Jin decided to fake claim vigilante. Possibly the worst move from a townie that I have seen. I'm just glad the real vig didn't counter.
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Post Post #4441 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:44 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko


All things considered, I'd rather vote here than remain on my vanity wagon.
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Post Post #4442 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:45 am

Post by Alisae »

A real vig counters by shooting another vig in the face not by publicly ccing...
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Post Post #4443 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:46 am

Post by Zachstralkita »

UNVOTE:


Actually, that's dumb. I want to see something first
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Post Post #4444 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 8:55 am

Post by The Rebbe »

Ssbm, I would like a claim from you before the day ends.
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Post Post #4445 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:28 am

Post by Alisae »

Wait.
You want Kyouko to claim before the day ends?
But not Wraith who has the bigger wagon on him?
I'm confused?
I said I would go away, but now I'm just confused.
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Post Post #4446 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:29 am

Post by The Rebbe »

I'd probably like both of them to claim. Though we will probably lynch Wraith over ssbm. I don't want to vig a town PR, which is why I wanted ssbm to claim.
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Post Post #4447 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:29 am

Post by The Rebbe »

Since I already claimed, I will also claim that I was informed from the mod that my predecessor was the one that shot texcat last night.
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Post Post #4448 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:32 am

Post by Alisae »

So why did you claim again?
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Post Post #4449 (ISO) » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:33 am

Post by The Rebbe »

Spoiler:
In post 173, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 74, Creature wrote:They're trying to fake a townslip. I wanna see who's gonna try to fake a townslip next.
Hey if my role pm is green which side am I on?
In post 119, Wraith wrote: I agree. Assuming 9 scum right off the bat implies foreknowledge of the setup, which in this case means scum. It's also such an absurd ratio that it would have to mean multiball.

Vote: Debi
Mmm that's a g00d VOTE right there
right there
if I do say so myself (i do say)
In post 129, TheRealGin-N-Tonic wrote:Lol Debi, You don't get the context as to why it's actually a god like miracle and because you opened to the door to the maths, let's do it. (I'll also go over your other concerns but let me have some fun here)

Spoiler: Maths for the fuck of it
I have two completed games under my belt and then this one I'm playing. So far out of all 3 of them, Pine has been them all.

Now the first game was the HungerGames Round 2 and that contained 17 players and there was 4 evil roles so we start out as me landing scum with a 4/17 chance. Now we multiply that by the Pine having the slot of scum as well so it's 3/16. Let us not forget that Pine also replaced in to a scum slot so that's a 3/16 chance he had the chance of replacing in to a scum slot and join me with day talk which is a 1/2 chance of being included.

Next, we move onto a game we just had where we had 5/8 townies and that was my chance of landing townie and 3/7 chance for Pine to land scum that game and again, 1/2 chance of having a game together with day talk.

Finally, this is where we do a little assuming here but I doubt the maths change would be astronomical. We assume a 4:1 ratio of scum meaning we have 5 scums this game, Now by the way the PM was worded, I'm going to go under the premise of a 5 man scum game meaning there would be a 5/19 chance I roll scum and for Pine a 4/18 chance he's scum.

After multiplying by 100 to give us percent, we get

0.006475749% chance that all of this has occurred so Pine and I could use that as scum theatre.
[/quote]

Spoiler:
Nice, using Pine's alignment in your previous games as basis for you 2 not being scum together. That's great logic there
In post 138, Creature wrote:Btw, did anyone check the forums Debi linked to see if their games are usually 10v9?
Seems irrelevant. Looks like 10 and 9 are numbers picked because there are 2 factions and Debi split the players in half. There's no way any site would be running 10town:9scum, that's D1 LyLo.
In post 170, Alisae wrote:I'm not making any arguements against anyone because quite frankly I'm not attempting to push for a specific lynch at the moment.
Okay so if you're not pushing a lynch why are you voting Creature? This doesn't look RVS
In post 63, Alisae wrote:Good points Pine!
VOTE: Creature
VOTE: Alisae
FoS:Wraith
[/quote]

^spoilered per player request - nested spoilers don't work so I had to break it up into three spoiler= tags

So I don't accidentally shoot a town PR. Though people would probably have picked up on my soft claim.
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