Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Elbirn]

The simplest answer is that pine roleblocked sonia-scum and thus no nk

But it doesn't account for the debacle of N3 and the mod error. If he did roleblock you, and this was the only thing that could have interfered with a kill, then that makes you scum. But he never addresses this. And you and sonia, having both been roleblocked, can't both be scum.

It seems to me that he must be lying about roleblocking you on N3 and I don't see why he lies as town.

[Elbirn]

Occam's razor doesn't work here if it doesn't account for all the information available, and concluding that it's sonia means ignoring N3.

[Tywin Lannister]

I just can't see any reason to look elsewhere when hard evidence is presented.

Due to no NK, and as far as I know, no doctor, there are only two possibilities:

1. Scum didn't send in an NK at all. The night phase did last forever, but this seems ridiculous. It's the long explanation for something that inherently doesn't make sense. Scum would have had to be afk the entire time. There's no logical reason for scum to not NK last night, so this had to be an inactive slot. We could look to see who wasn't active over the weekend I suppose? Other than that, it could be really bad 'trickery' by scum to force a mislynch today. That being said, it would've been a bad play, so I can't really accept that.

2. Pine is town RBer, which fits balance-wise without a doctor. Pine blocked Sonia. Sonia's NK failed due to that. Sonia is scum.

Anyone else have any other explanation? I don't, and which one fits occam'd razor? That would be #2 IMO.

[Tywin Lannister]

Occam's razor doesn't work here if it doesn't account for all the information available, and concluding that it's sonia means ignoring N3.

Haha didn't pedit but why doesn't it fit? With two explanations, the simplest one is Scum Sonia. It even goes against my belief that Pine is scum, but I can't see a way he isn't town RB here.

[Aj The Epic]

Titus' theory that a RC could suggest this, but the issue is a RC reveals the "3x" modifier of a RB and all of the sudden they don't make this play because realistically RB is going to use it D1, 2 and 3, not 2-4. I know for certain I wouldn't gambit giving town a free lynch here if I had all this shit to clear out (Titus mainly). And we know Titus can't be the RB (which is the scenario where this happens if Titus is too worried about town going "why is titus alive", titus' only scum role is Doctor.

In short, scum making a no kill is just too coincidental to work by occam's razor.

[Elbirn]

I'm babbling a bit and I do a terrible job of explaining myself but hopefully someone can speak my moon-language

Pedit: I pre-empted your Occam's razor

I don't see how town gets to have roleblocker, 2 masons, a vig, a gunsmith, and a vanilla cop....while scum gets a traitor (negative utility) and a motion detector, and maybe a 3rd thing we don't know yet but stillll.

I think scum-roleblocker just claimed his actual role. Scum need a roleblocker or a doc or something in this setup, something to counteract town power.

[Aj The Epic]

Well the two viable solutions I see is:

Pine is the RB, got the block

Pine lied, NK'd for this and is suiciding to take one more townie.

Pine doesn't win the game with this claim. It would almost 100% be ego shit, which isn't a move I'd make in his position (I'd scrap it for a win if I had any chance to).

[Aj The Epic]

TBH in this setup, isn't a RB negative utility to town though? So much shit it can block from town, so little from scum.

[Titus]

I'm babbling a bit and I do a terrible job of explaining myself but hopefully someone can speak my moon-language

Pedit: I pre-empted your Occam's razor

I don't see how town gets to have roleblocker, 2 masons, a vig, a gunsmith, and a vanilla cop....while scum gets a traitor (negative utility) and a motion detector, and maybe a 3rd thing we don't know yet but stillll.

I think scum-roleblocker just claimed his actual role. Scum need a roleblocker or a doc or something in this setup, something to counteract town power.

4 scum.

[Tywin Lannister]

What are the alternatives for no NK though? I've looked at all angles here, and I can't find any. If I could conf bias Pine into being scum, I would have (and did before I saw Sonia's doc claim was fake), but it just doesn't work. We can discuss theory and balance all day, but the facts are that there wasn't an NK. We either believe it was blocked, or we believe it wasn't ever sent in. I can't fathom why the second option would happen, so I have to go with the first. Pine's claim fits that.

If we are talking about balance though, then it's POSSIBLE for there to be 5 total scum (1 was a traitor), in which case Titus has to be scum Doctor (since she looks so scummy, I'm throwing this out there), and Sonia is some other scum role. This would explain Titus acting weird, defending Sonia so hard, and going for bad lynched like Elibrin here (not to mention straight up disbelieving Pine without reason). The ONLY way this matters is if we lynch scum today (I'm gonna vote Sonia barring any substantial revelations) and the game isn't over still. In that case, Titus is scum doc and needs to go tomorrow. That would 'somewhat' make sense in a balancing act with all the town PRs. Obviously, none of this matters if it's game over after Sonia is lynched. I'm just throwing this out there as another possibility, and only assuming Sonia flips scum and it's still not over.

[Tywin Lannister]

TBH in this setup, isn't a RB negative utility to town though? So much shit it can block from town, so little from scum.

Pretty much, which is why not having a doctor makes his claim believable, not to mention the obvious elephant in the room... No NK last night.

[Aj The Epic]

VOTE: Sonia

Alright this game's over anyways.

[gerryoat]

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

[Tywin Lannister]

That L1 or L2? I'm gonna wait for Sonia to speak before I vote, but without any other explanations, my votes a lock there. Even if she flips town, that means Pine is scum, so yeh... Games pretty much over. If scum Pine was making a play to not NK last night for his RBer claim to work, he'd still lose. He would've been better off sending in the kill and then hoping for a mislynch today. As it stands, he'd have 3 kills if he sent one in last night, mislynch today, send one tonight. He gets two if Sonia is a mislynch, which I don't think is the case. With 6 town players left, not sending in an NK to get 1 mislynch doesn't make sense.

So Sonia, anything you want to add? Maybe a REAL claim this time? If you're L1, I intend to hammer. Otherwise, I intend to put you at L1. I haven't counted votes, but idk that it really matters. You might wanna play as if you were, since I don't see how you'd not get lynched without a CC. You played a good scum game. Had me fooled the entire time.

Pedit: Gerry, thoughts on Pine, Sonia? What's with AJ that you don't like?

[Aj The Epic]

Yeah I can spam useless shit when I'm wrong too

I think it's L-1 but we might as well hammer. The gauntlet has already been thrown on this gambit, and it's game whether today or tomorrow.

[gerryoat]

Do not hammer yet. Anyone who hammers will be scum

[gerryoat]

Whoever is voting should unvote, we have time and there is no reason to rush. Only mafia would want to rush this day.

[Aj The Epic]

Nah. Give me one good reason scum isn't involved with Pine/Sonia right now.

[Elbirn]

Well the two viable solutions I see is:

Pine is the RB, got the block

Pine lied, NK'd for this and is suiciding to take one more townie.

Pine doesn't win the game with this claim. It would almost 100% be ego shit, which isn't a move I'd make in his position (I'd scrap it for a win if I had any chance to).

TBH in this setup, isn't a RB negative utility to town though? So much shit it can block from town, so little from scum.

I could see scum no killing here to fake a block, then throwing their hands up in the air when the mark flips town and saying that scum must have no killed

Scum needs 3 lynches to win. Casting some serious doubt on someone who seems to be in an unlynchable position sounds like a good move. Even with doing a no kill the math works. Works better, even?

Scum pine lynches sonia, then aj, then counts on me to be his beard and lynch Tywin in lylo after nk'ing gerry/titus. It makes sensicals.

[gerryoat]

As I said, anyone who hammers is scum and gets turbo lynched tomorrow. If you're voting, I suggest you unvote.

[Elbirn]

he would have to know of a RB role and somehow manipulate out a fake claim of sonia of her own free will?

Rolecop.

The fakeclaim from Sonia is irrelevant. Pine just roleblocks anyone but him. We reach the same place.

Pine prevented the kill lynch town.
Town flips town. Lynch Pine.

3p lylo.

Looking back on this, a rolecop on a team with a motion detector doesn't sound likely to me. Scums investigation is already the motion detector. I'd expect a roleblocker here for the final pr

[Titus]

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

Titus, please. Tell me why you TR aj.

PoE, VCA.

You should confirm or deny if you are last mason.

[gerryoat]

I'll be the mason for today. Doesn't matter, I led the lynch on Nero when you guys were all trying to push mislynches.

[gerryoat]

My PoE has AJ as scum.

[Titus]

I'll be the mason for today. Doesn't matter, I led the lynch on Nero when you guys were all trying to push mislynches.

I want a direct yes or no.

And I lead that Nero charge tyvm.