Newbie 1766 - Game Over

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well like, I mean if we think Lucca got shot at because of this:

30 minutes left guys.

If Friend flips Town, this is scum.

It either means scum was trying to frame Sofiel using the NK, or scumteam includes Sofiel. If Aero/the_end were the team I don't see why neither pushed Sofiel D2 because the Lucca kill would have been intended to frame Sofiel, right? The players I remember pushing Sofiel are Lucca and ThinkBig, and they're both conftown. That's why I'm asking if anyone pushed him for it. If they did, it was a framing NK, if not, it was a defensive NK

[lucca261]

Hmm, neither te nor Aero pushed Sofiel D2 did they? @rb/lucca

neither did. I think Aero pointed at it, but I'm not sure, will re-read.

preparing a bigger post on Aero and End.

[lucca261]

UNVOTE:

So lucca you think there's a good chance aero is town here?

I think it's possible. If Sofiel is not scum, it's probable End with Aero.

Aero and Sofiel is impossible. (if Aero and Sofiel were scum, Sofiel wouldn't put Aero at L-1.)
RB and Aero is very improbable. (for all that happened)
Kyouko and Aero is impossible. (Kyouko would have hammered RB)
Aero and End is still possible.

Kyouko and Sofiel is impossible. (Kyouko would have hammered RB)
Kyouko and RB is impossible. (Kyouko would have hammered Aero)
Kyouko and Aero is impossible. (Kyouko would have hammered RB)
Kyouko and End is still possible.

Sofiel and Aero is impossible. (if Aero and Sofiel were scum, Sofiel wouldn't put Aero at L-1.)
Sofiel and Kyouko is impossible. (Kyouko would have hammered RB)
Sofiel and RB is improbable, but possible.
Sofiel and End is possible.

RB is only possible with Sofiel and End.

End is possible with everyone.

I say we lynch The_End today.

[lucca261]

The only way that End is not scum is if it is Aero and RB or Sofiel and RB.

[lucca261]

But the way Sofiel is flip-flopping on RB and Aero makes me think it's Sofiel and End. Maybe Kyouko, but that's stuff for another day.

[lucca261]

oh wait Kyouko is only scum with End too.

It's End and Sofiel.

[rb]

VOTE: the_end

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hmm, I'll have to reread D2/D3 for any Sofiel scumreads just in case, I'm not as sold on the improbability of Sofiel/Aero.

Also I don't think I was ever presented the opportunity to hammer Aero. I unvoted when Sofiel put Aero at L-1

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Genesis 4 Top 8 melee is on rn though so I'll do my reading afterwards

[the_end]

The only way that End is not scum is if it is Aero and RB or Sofiel and RB.

I've been saying it all day today - the scumteam is Sofiel and rb. I've also said it twice today (in 544 and 473) that if we dont have a consensus on an rb lynch then I will push for a Sofiel lynch. It's clearly the case that the rb lynch is not happening so I will now push for a Sofiel lynch. If you're basing a Sofiel and me scum partnership on me not voting her then I urge you reconsider after reading 545, 544 and 473

VOTE: Sofiel

lucca, think about how much rb has changed his opinion about who he thinks scum is for sure. Literally every other post of his is something like "I'm sure XXX" is scum, with the XXX changing very often. I'm not saying rethinking a vote is bad, I'm saying he's pushing for the easiest wagon again, which after your post, is me.

Also think about this - scum will try to lynch the easiest person to lynch since we're at MyLo. rb was the most universally town read player this whole game, which makes him a difficult lynch. If I was scum I would have pushed for a much easier ssbm lynch. Lucca, you yourself had suspicions of ssbm being scum at the beginning of today (you were pushing for his lynch in posts 446, 468) and so did the other players (except rb).

[the_end]

The only way that End is not scum is if it is Aero and RB or Sofiel and RB.

This is exactly my argument in post 456. The scumteam is Sofiel and RB, also possible but unlikely is Aero and RB.

[Huntress]

Vote Count 3.7

Aeronaut (1) - Sofiel
the_end (1) - rb
Sofiel (1) - the_end

Not voting (3) - Aeronaut, lucca261, ssbm_Kyouko


With six players alive, it takes four votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day Three is Thursday, 26th January 23.00 GMT, (in (expired on 2017-01-26 23:00:00)).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: Sofiel's progression on the_end

General reaction: Thanks a lot for the really in-depth responses and the questions you've posed to me. Totally get it. I'm just going to throw my all into it and hope for the best. Thus:

VOTE: Friend Computer

I can't get over the posts. #147 says "Currently think the_end is null scum" feels like a weak contribution and I really cannot get past the fact he hasn't responded to my votes/questions to him at all and his contributions don't seem to add anything. I feel like his posts have allowed him to fly under the radar a bit and I can't get over it - he's not done anything to make him stand out, he's not published a readlist and he's not actively scumhunting. His only vague scumhunting post is one that agrees with a general opinion that is 'the_end' seems a bit scummy. Other players in the game have been more central and the focus has been on them and I think we need to change this. I'm also wondering if this is bussing i.e. the_end is one of my stronger scumreads and Friend is scum trying to distance himself from the_end, but at the same time voting for ssbm because he sees an easy lynch that won't lose his teammate. I really want to get some focus on Friend hence why I'm using this post & i think earlier posts like #166 and previous reads.

I don't feel ssbm is scum despite the wagon and it's notable that FC is voting for them & one of my biggest scumreads. ssbm was a bit pouncy on TB but I feel the explanation of pressing for information is legit & it did give us info that is important and contributed overall to the town. Should be acknowledged that TB was an OMGUS vote and I think lucca isn't scummy enough for me so far to want to lynch him D1.

My reads:

rb, Aero are town-y enough for me to not want to push for a d1 lynch. (NT?)
ssbm, TB , lucca and Zekro are null (Zekro because the buddying argument which still makes sense to me).
Friend and the_end look scummy to me - Friend for reasons detailed above, the_end because it's easy to capitalise on my voting record as a point to vote against and I disagree generally with his readlist (his scum reads are my town reads etc).

I think there's a general rule to have double the amount of scum reads there are scum, so if I did have to point at possible scum I'd want to re-examine TB (bc OMGUS), lucca (for his vote on ssbm which seems opportunistic and worth looking into esp in context of his earlier vote on me which rang the same way - but in previous games I've read I've seen town get scumread for being opportunistic when genuinely trying to scumhunt) and Zekro (buddying argument and the lack of content argument are both balancing out for me atm).

Sofiel's D1 scumreads: FC/end, with secondary consideration of TB/lucca/Zeke

Should add I'm voting for Friend because I just feel more sure about him than anyone else. It might seem better strategically to jump on the_end's wagon rather than try and start a new one but Zekro is still null for me and the voters on the ssbm wagon are very questionable for me in regards to my readlist & I'm not sure I fully trust them.

Sofiel's reason for voting FC over end (despite having a better case on end in his read's post above) was that Zeke (the player voting end)

is a null for him

. This is important for later

um no. They would be CCed almost immediately, or if they got to a point when we all eventually claim.

Wouldn't it be possible that the people who can CC aren't in thread yet tho? Or am I missing a trick? (Tho to be fair the only people who haven't posted yet are Zekro and the_end )

Also I don't regret pushing for the lynch because at the end of the day considering this scenario at least we have the information of who was on the wagon for FC, we got the claim from TB/lucca from no NK and we can now approach D2 with a bit more info than we had D1. It's shit that he wasn't scum tho I was rly sure :u

@Lucca: I said we could review if we should or shouldn't lynch Zekro D2 when we have more info. But at the moment yeah Zekro does look suspicious so I *am* going to VOTE: Zekro to try and put some pressure on him. I kind of took the pressure away D1 by pushing for an FC wagon and if I was Zekro and scum I'd've been thankful for it and would've just kept quiet and let the wagon go on. His post #249 is a strange one but I think it could show he knew FC was town and just wanted to seem sympathetic - like, let's lynch FC as a last resort guys! expecting us to see FC was town and then town-read him for not wanting to kill a town player??

Sofiel votes Zeke here, despite never having announced a shift in his read on end, or having made any sort of interaction with end that may have helped Sofiel sort end into a town slot. He also lumps Zeke and end together at the top of the post so he's clearly aware of them but doesn't take the chance to ask anything of them in this post to sort which is more likely scum for him.
Sofiel also votes Zeke in this post, followed by:

VOTE: zekro
If I'm understanding the TB/lucca thing correctly, zekro is scum.

ssbm, it seems, is back to being pushy. I have my eye on him. I'm waiting for more posts from sofiel to get a better read on him.

end votes Zeke. Now the Zeke wagon has both Sofiel and end on it, and we know Sofiel notices this because in the next post:

@the_end can you elaborate on that more? That justification doesn't make much sense to me

Sofiel asks for an explanation of end's vote, without unvoting. Before, Sofiel would not vote the_end when he had to choose between end and FC because end's wagon had a nullread Zeke on it, but now Sofiel should have 2 SRs of Zeke and end, yet the same logic doesn't apply to Zeke's wagon as it did to end's wagon. end is worse than what zeke was to Sofiel - end is a scumread on the same wagon as Sofiel, and before Sofiel would not be on the same wagon as his nullread.
For what it's worth, end never explains his vote to Sofiel and Sofiel doesn't push him any further for reasoning. I feel like if Sofiel actually cared about end's lack of reasoning for his vote, he would have either unvoted or pressed end further.

Popping in to avoid prod; I've been busy preparing for a job interview (take it how you will lmao). I'll come in with a better post soon but cop is welcome to check me if they like, would recommend going for more suspect players (ssbm/aero/tb) because I'd rather they get a definite maf read than a town read.

Interesting that TB is calling for the cop to claim tomorrow/that he's been overall conf. town just because he suggested we start a townblock. Would call for more focus on that. But I guess we'll see on D3.

Should add Aero hasn't done anything explicitly scum but accepted townreads make me jumpy because if mafia is one of them they have a free ride to endgame.

Then this post, after I declare intent to hammer but before I hammer, Sofiel sets out his scumreads again, and the_end is mysteriously absent.

Sofiel definitely faked their read on the_end. Whether they're scum together remains to be seen but Sofiel is the day's lynch for me.

VOTE: Sofiel

[lucca261]

Will post and probably vote on the morning. Had a full day.

[Sofiel]

If lynch does go through 584 is a scumtell tbh.

In response to [post568[/post]. My scumteam prediction is t_e/Aero. t_e because of his fake anger against rb to make himself look like frustrated town. Aero's backpeddling on the rb vote looks like he's covering his butt to me tbh.

If I get lynched, after I flip I ask you guys to look a lot more closely at the people trying to lead the lynch and also the people I've been pursuing lmao

[Sofiel]

568*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sof even thinks game will continue after he's lynched, scumslip

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Town knows if they're lynched it's game over

[Sofiel]

6 people alive, 2 scum. if 2 town go today (lynch and nk) that means theres four people left which means its still feasible for town to knock out scum tomorrow & continue right? scum have to outnumber town to win??

[lucca261]

no. 2 scum 2 town is scumwin.

[rb]

you can't get majority lynch in 2v2, so it's stalemate until night time and then NK makes it 1v2 so it's automatic scum win, therefore games end in scum win at 50/50

[the_end]

If lynch does go through 584 is a scumtell tbh.

In response to [post568[/post]. My scumteam prediction is t_e/Aero. t_e because of his fake anger against rb to make himself look like frustrated town. Aero's backpeddling on the rb vote looks like he's covering his butt to me tbh.

If I get lynched, after I flip I ask you guys to look a lot more closely at the people trying to lead the lynch and also the people I've been pursuing lmao

I wasn't "fake angry". It was neither fake nor angry (although I can see why you thought I was angry). I was just replying to rb in the same tone we was using with the rest of us (particularly me).

[rb]

I'm not lynching Sofiel

[rb]

If lynch does go through 584 is a scumtell tbh.

In response to [post568[/post]. My scumteam prediction is t_e/Aero. t_e because of his fake anger against rb to make himself look like frustrated town. Aero's backpeddling on the rb vote looks like he's covering his butt to me tbh.

If I get lynched, after I flip I ask you guys to look a lot more closely at the people trying to lead the lynch and also the people I've been pursuing lmao

^ this is a townpost

[rb]

im town, im pretty damn fucking sure ssbm is town and also even if he's scum it's not with Sofiel

sofiel isn't scum with the_end either, and it's unlikely they're scum with aero

sofiel isn't scum, not possible