Micro 687: Vanilluxe Mafia - Mafia Victory!!!

Aristophanes · Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:15 pm

VC 2.7

Eddie Cane

(3): GuiltyLion 1008, TTTT 1063, Fro99er 1075

Sobolev Space

(2): SweetBlueFlowers 1061, Lowell 1088

Fro99er

(1): Eddie Cane 1065

Lowell

(1): Sobolev Space 928

Not Voting

(0): Nobody!!!

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day two ends March 4th at 1pm EST, or in (expired on 2017-03-20 14:00:00)

Mod Notes:
Eddie Cane is V/LA until Saturday May 25th

SweetBlueFlowers · Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:03 pm

I reread the thread and went through VCA. Frog is locktown. No I am not voting there. I don't care if he's scumreading both of us. The fact that he's still scumreading me despite me being the only non-meta obvtown slot alive means that he's just not scum.

Space is the best lynch for today. The slot cannot be allowed to LyLo regardless of alignment. I am willing to compromise on Lowell for the same reason.

I refuse to participate in the Eddie lynch.

Eddie Cane · Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:54 pm

In post 1122, GuiltyLion wrote:@Eddie

In post 1115, GuiltyLion wrote:SS. What's your read on her, and why? What do you think of her townread on you?

In post 1123, GuiltyLion wrote:like when I read your ISO you said you thought she was null for most of D1 and then said you wanted to lynch her or Fro99er. Why aren't you on her wagon rn?

things change

TTTT · Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:13 pm

In post 1126, SweetBlueFlowers wrote:I reread the thread and went through VCA. Frog is locktown. No I am not voting there. I don't care if he's scumreading both of us.

Who is "us"?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 4:58 am

In post 1127, Eddie Cane wrote:
In post 1122, GuiltyLion wrote:@Eddie

In post 1115, GuiltyLion wrote:SS. What's your read on her, and why? What do you think of her townread on you?

In post 1123, GuiltyLion wrote:like when I read your ISO you said you thought she was null for most of D1 and then said you wanted to lynch her or Fro99er. Why aren't you on her wagon rn?
things change

This is weak. There's no reason for you to be cagey here.

@TTTT - not impressed at all with your question there

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:19 am

In post 1125, Aristophanes wrote:
VC 2.7
Eddie Cane
(3): GuiltyLion 1008, TTTT 1063, Fro99er 1075

Sobolev Space
(2): SweetBlueFlowers 1061, Lowell 1088

Fro99er
(1): Eddie Cane 1065

Lowell
(1): Sobolev Space 928

Not Voting
(0): Nobody!!!

With 7 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Day two ends March 4th at 1pm EST, or in (expired on 2017-03-20 14:00:00)

Mod Notes:
Eddie Cane is V/LA until Saturday May 25th

I'm generally trying to figure out why we have two wagons but neither of the wagonees are voting their CW. It makes me think that at least one of them is definitely scum, but I'm having a hard time thinking that it would point to a {SS, Eddie} team.

it'd help me a lot if you could start being more town, TTTT. and SS your V/LA is up so if you're town you need to start putting in D2 work. I don't think I have a strong sense of anything from you other than "I want to flip Lowell and I'm not voting Eddie unless it's deadline". Even your reasons for townreading Eddie seem to be just because you found some nitpicks with things that I said about him.

Eddie Cane · Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:30 am

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:15 am

UNVOTE:

@SBF/Lowell - why are you both TRing TTTT? I can pretty easily see a GL/TTTT scumteam at this point.

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:16 am

In post 1130, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm generally trying to figure out why we have two wagons but neither of the wagonees are voting their CW. It makes me think that at least one of them is definitely scum, but I'm having a hard time thinking that it would point to a {SS, Eddie} team.

Why is this weird? I've given my reasons for townreading Eddie. Since we're close to deadline and it looks like one of our wagons is going through I'd honestly prefer it to be mine since I think there are more scum on Eddie's wagon and I'm more likely to be mislynched in lylo.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:46 am

In post 1133, Sobolev Space wrote:I've given my reasons for townreading Eddie. Since we're close to deadline and it looks like one of our wagons is going through I'd honestly prefer it to be mine since I think there are more scum on Eddie's wagon and I'm more likely to be mislynched in lylo.

I don't feel like I believe that your townread in Eddie is so strong that you'd rather yourself get lynched than him. And you think you could see a GL/TTTT scumteam yet neither of us are currently voting you, but you still think you're more likely to be mislynched in LYLO? If Lowell/SBF are town getting suckered, why aren't you really talking to them? and you came out earlier this game with scumreads on both of them, did your read on Lowell flip? When did the SBF case you posted in 781 stop holding up?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:48 am

in fact I really don't see anything in your ISO that would indicate a change of mind on SBF, yet suddenly "more scum are on Eddie's wagon"?

Eddie Cane · Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:58 am

In post 1134, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1133, Sobolev Space wrote:I've given my reasons for townreading Eddie. Since we're close to deadline and it looks like one of our wagons is going through I'd honestly prefer it to be mine since I think there are more scum on Eddie's wagon and I'm more likely to be mislynched in lylo.

I don't feel like I believe that your townread in Eddie is so strong that you'd rather yourself get lynched than him.
And you think you could see a GL/TTTT scumteam yet neither of us are currently voting you, but you still think you're more likely to be mislynched in LYLO? If Lowell/SBF are town getting suckered, why aren't you really talking to them? and you came out earlier this game with scumreads on both of them, did your read on Lowell flip? When did the SBF case you posted in 781 stop holding up?

jsyk babe this doesn't make sense. there are 2 scenarios if ss gets lynched

town flip: it's true because he's town... doesn't need much explaining

scum flip: he's scum and that statement earned him absolutely nothing because he flipped scum and sacrificing himself to be lynched gained nothing.

it's better I get lynched over ss though as I think I'm more likely to get mislynched in lylo with frogger death tunnelling me

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:03 am

I don't think either of you advocating for your own lynch is pro-town whatsoever, and it's baffling to me that neither of you seem to want to flip the other. Like even if you're town and your CW is your strongest townread in the game, fucking flip them first in case you're wrong and then if they do wind up town you can argue with the people who are pushing you in LYLO. Both of you refusing to lynch each other and advocating for your own lynch makes no sense and I feel the mechanics of lynch-scum-on-D3-is-town-autowin is coming into play here in some way.

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:05 am

Eddie's got it right. I see it like 100% chance I flip town, 85% chance Eddie flips town. But in lylo Eddie has a 30% chance of being lynched while I have a 50-60% of being lynched. I think I'm more likely to get lynched in lylo. Frogger's tunneling Eddie but not irresponsible enough to vote before discussion and I think town will have an easier time persuading him to lynch scum than they will have persuading SBF/Lowell not to vote for me.

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:07 am

@GL - my read evolution was basically: Frogger's town, Eddie's town d1. SBF's posting today is making me begrudgingly admit she's probably town (which sucks because I'd enjoy lynching her). Moderate SR on you, TTTT, and Lowell. Your recent posting pushed you to my primary scumread and since I can't see you buddied with Lowell based on d1 it's most likely you/TTTT

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:07 am

can you answer my question about why your read on SBF has apparently flipped dramatically

and like if you think I'm scum shouldn't it be pretty easy to get SBF to vote me over you in LYLO

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:09 am

like are you willing to say your entire thought process in 781 was all bullshit?

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:09 am

It's not dramatic. I still wanted Lowell lynched over her d1. Today I realized that a lot of my SR was a reaction to her abrasive posting style which is really NAI. Although there are a couple things I'm worried about I can see a town motive behind most of her posts.

Sobolev Space · Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:09 am

It wasn't all bullshit just wasn't as important as I thought it was.

Fro99er · Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:05 am

SS can you answer my questions

Fro99er · Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:06 am

In post 1130, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm generally trying to figure out why we have two wagons but neither of the wagonees are voting their CW. It makes me think that at least one of them is definitely scum, but I'm having a hard time thinking that it would point to a {SS, Eddie} team.

I don't think it's too weird for SS to not be voting Eddie, considering it would be a hammer.

I do think it's odd Eddie is voteparking on me.

Fro99er · Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:09 am

In post 1139, Sobolev Space wrote:Your recent posting pushed you to my primary scumread

What exactly about GL's posting pushed him to your primary scum read?

Lowell · Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:58 am

SS is a nightmare right now. 1138 is nonsensical.

I'm glad she and GL are finally agreeing that the other one is scum though. That's a 1v1 I could get behind.

SweetBlueFlowers · Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:45 am

I'm just going to say that it's pretty obvious from this page that there are only two scumteams that make any sense in the game right now.

Either 4T and GL are scumpartners or Eddie and Space are scumpartners. This lynch-me-not-them behavior from Space and Eddie doesn't make a whole lot of logical sense, but I can see the Town reasoning in it. I can also very easily see GL and 4T as scumpartners by the way GL has softballed questions to 4T and by how he seems to have begun flailing.

{4T, GL}
{Eddie, Space}

Take your pick. I'll vote any of the four except Eddie. Space looks Town from this page. GL does not. Whichever team it is, PoE has the scumteam trapped right now. If either 4T or GL flip green, the team is {Eddie, Space}. If either Eddie or Space flip green, the team is {4T, GL}.

VOTE: 4T

Eddie Cane · Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:48 am

In post 1138, Sobolev Space wrote:Eddie's got it right. I see it like 100% chance I flip town, 85% chance Eddie flips town. But in lylo Eddie has a 30% chance of being lynched while I have a 50-60% of being lynched. I think I'm more likely to get lynched in lylo. Frogger's tunneling Eddie but not irresponsible enough to vote before discussion and I think town will have an easier time persuading him to lynch scum than they will have persuading SBF/Lowell not to vote for me.

strange math