Mini 1895: Shaziro Mafia - GAME OVER

[Shaziro]

Votecount 5.2

Votes

Titus (1)

- MathBlade,

GuyInFreezer (1)

- Titus,

WhemeStar (1)

- GuyInFreezer,

Not Voting

:
WhemeStar, implosion, Hikari Link


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

(expired on 2017-05-18 05:37:30)

[Hikari Link]

Should be able to post tonight before I go to bed. "Tonight" being very loose phrasing. In the middle of the night/early morning, really.

[WhemeStar]

It's a "screw you" vote.
I'll unvote eventually.

Ah alright

[MathBlade]

Hell Titus could even be that scum even night roleblocker. I don't like how people are going "Titus claimed doctor" == obvTown.

I claimed jailkeeper N1 in Shadowrun and freaking coasted. I don't see anyone actually sorting Titus and that is scary to me.

I built that setup. Just sayin'.

What does your analysis look like if I am town?

GiF or Implosion or Kop scum. Kop most likely GiF Least likely.

Wheme is confTown and should be driving things but isn't posting jack.

[Titus]

Hell Titus could even be that scum even night roleblocker. I don't like how people are going "Titus claimed doctor" == obvTown.

I claimed jailkeeper N1 in Shadowrun and freaking coasted. I don't see anyone actually sorting Titus and that is scary to me.

I built that setup. Just sayin'.

What does your analysis look like if I am town?

GiF or Implosion or Kop scum. Kop most likely GiF Least likely.

Wheme is confTown and should be driving things but isn't posting jack.

What do you think of HL?

[MathBlade]

The fact Hiraki hasn't hopped on a wagon quickly probably makes Hiraki Town.

[Titus]

The fact Hiraki hasn't hopped on a wagon quickly probably makes Hiraki Town.

Lol. Kop is scum. Hiraki town. See the problem?

[MathBlade]

Derp that means if you're Town which I doubt GiF or Implosion scum.

[Titus]

Derp that means if you're Town which I doubt GiF or Implosion scum.

Then vote GIF.

I'm not voting implosion. You'd have to get every other townie to agree on Implosion and IAWS is also not voting implosion. He's off the table.

[Hikari Link]

Derp that means if you're Town which I doubt GiF or Implosion scum.

Then vote GIF.

I'm not voting implosion. You'd have to get every other townie to agree on Implosion and IAWS is also not voting implosion. He's off the table.

IAWS is dead... Did you mean WhemeStar?

[Titus]

Derp that means if you're Town which I doubt GiF or Implosion scum.

Then vote GIF.

I'm not voting implosion. You'd have to get every other townie to agree on Implosion and IAWS is also not voting implosion. He's off the table.

IAWS is dead... Did you mean WhemeStar?

Nope. I'm just being a dumbass who is tired.

[MathBlade]

I'm fine voting you. Plenty of time left in the day for people to hunt. Why do you want things to go quickly? @Titus

[Hikari Link]

So really quick, I just wanted to say that I really don't care if you guys get my name wrong, but there is an active user on this website named "Hiraki," so maybe don't call me

that

, for the purposes of not confusing the two of us in future games. I wouldn't want you misattributing things I do to him or vice-versa. Though I plan to fix this by changing usernames in the near future.

As for this game, I could point out any number of reasons that I'm probtown right now, just from my actions since the start of this day. But I suspect they'd be pretty meaningless if you guys don't realize them for yourselves. Meatier posts are still incoming once I get a better handle on everyone still alive, hopefully late tonight.

The only real tactical consideration right now is that Titus should protect somewhat arbitrarily tonight/shouldn't say too much about who she's protecting; this forces scum to either kill her or risk giving us an extra mislynch. This works because the remaining scum is an even-night rb, and tonight is an odd night. If Titus saves someone tonight, obviously we lynch tomorrow because we'll be in odds. If we mislynch today and Titus (or anyone else) dies, then we'll be at 4p and we no-lynch tomorrow since there's technically no one alive who's formally clear.

You have the endgame wrong. I don't know if you are mistaken or if you are trying to confuse either scum or town with it, but I'm going to clarify it.

First, unless I'm very much misinformed, WhemeStar is confirmed town. Unless you're telling me that scum have a player who is both an Even-Night Roleblocker and a Full-Time Fruit Vendor and can also perform the night kill.

Second, scum have literally zero incentive to kill anyone but Titus. This is because targeting WhemeStar leaves the chance of him being protected and leaving the two remaining VTs together alive creates a bigger smokescreen for the scum.

Third, your very premise of us leaving somebody alive tomorrow is flawed, because since WhemeStar is conftown (unless I've misunderstood something), he'll be the next target. That means we have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow to win. There is no way around it unless we abstain from voting today and tomorrow, but that's just going to result in the same scenario, only with less conftown on the board.

My scum pool right now is basically math and hiraki, and I lean pretty heavily towards math. A quick look at Eddie's ISO ctrl+f'ing hans's name looks pretty bad as well. He *consistently* has hans as the "next person to lynch." On d1, he says he thinks cd and hans are both scum but is more confident in a cd flip. Before the DRK lynch he waffles around voting hans and eventually does vote him, calling him the second scum after DRK while DRK is getting wagoned. However, early in d3, his reads suddenly change with the theory that DRK's scumflip implicated me, and he suddenly conveniently has someone else to push over hans now that the scumteam's traitor is dead. Later that day, hans is once again placed behind someone else, this time fitz.

Point is: he constantly, constantly talks about how he finds hans scummy. And yet, his pressure on that slot never ever amounts to anything; his one vote on the slot is essentially a kneejerk reaction to 920, and never really contributes any meaningful pressure. The rest of the time, he always manages to find someone else to vote for or to push as the better lynch while being able to very effectively distance from hans.

Why is GuyInFreezer outside of your lynch pool? I'm not even saying he's scum, but there's no reason

Disclaimer is that this post actually might be confbias; i am interested in hearing other opinions on this. But I really think this looks like scum distancing. I feel like town at least meaningfully votes hans at some point during all of this. It's like eddie saw twoface as this big town personality who was wrong about everything, and basically took the opportunity to loudly sheep all of twoface's opinions so that he could effectively distance from his scumbuddy while coordinating with the townie who was wrong about things.

Will probably look deeper at Kop ISO next.

If you truly believe that it can only be MathBlade or I, then you are subject to confirmation bias by definition. Especially since, based on this post, you aren't saying WhemeStar is confirmed town. Technically, all four of us should be in your lynch pool. Granted, you have to narrow down who you wantat some point, but I feel like it's a bit early to be reaching that conclusion.

[Hikari Link]

I'm fine voting you. Plenty of time left in the day for people to hunt. Why do you want things to go quickly? @Titus

Are you seriously still on Titus as potential scum, dude?

[Hikari Link]

Everyone else, please don't respond to this.

@MathBlade: How about we lynch Titus today and we lynch you tomorrow if she flips town? Would you agree to that? Because it's the only way we are lynching her.

[Titus]

This is because targeting WhemeStar leaves the chance of him being protected

Chance? No. Doc heals conftown. I'm not dumb.

[Titus]

I'm fine voting you. Plenty of time left in the day for people to hunt. Why do you want things to go quickly? @Titus

Then hunt.

[implosion]

On phone but:

Scum do potentially have incentive to kill people other than Titus. If they think they can get away with a mislynch on Titus which is theoretically possible esp if mathblade is town.

Wheme is in the strictest sense not technically conftown. That's all I really meant. I'm personally happy to lynch at 4p if he's alive. I will never vote him. But it's possible that for instance wheme dies tonight for one reason or another in which case I'd argue a nolynch is probably the better play.

Your analysis is basically assuming that everyone is okay with assuming that Titus is town, and mine isn't. I personally am more than happy to assume she's town though.

Scum is in a pickle here most likely and so making unexpected kills is something they might do based on things like who fosses who.

Gif is at third place as likely scum but far enough behind you two that he doesn't concern me ATM. This is because of two faces play, and Hans interactions towards the slot. I don't think tf played well but I think his play made very little sense from scum for the most part.

[implosion]

I also don't really have faith in wheme to decide the endgame since he's kind of been afk from the game for a very long time.

[Hikari Link]

This is because targeting WhemeStar leaves the chance of him being protected

Chance? No. Doc heals conftown. I'm not dumb.

I meant in the scenario that imp described where you would heal someone random. Though it's still a pretty bad move, regardless.

[Hikari Link]

On phone but:

Scum do potentially have incentive to kill people other than Titus. If they think they can get away with a mislynch on Titus which is theoretically possible esp if mathblade is town.

Even if MathBlade is town, I feel like it would be a pretty hard mislynch.

Wheme is in the strictest sense not technically conftown. That's all I really meant. I'm personally happy to lynch at 4p if he's alive. I will never vote him. But it's possible that for instance wheme dies tonight for one reason or another in which case I'd argue a nolynch is probably the better play.

In the strictest sense, nobody is confirmed town. Scum team could've chosen not to kill one night (assuming that's a legal choice) to make it seem like there was a Doctor for Titus to claim it.

Your analysis is basically assuming that everyone is okay with assuming that Titus is town, and mine isn't. I personally am more than happy to assume she's town though.

I mean, you broke down the balance of the game perfectly. Unless somebody claims a town power role we didn't know about until now, this setup is heavily unbalanced in favor of scum. Please don't respond to this one, I'm making a separate post about it that everybody can see easily.

Scum is in a pickle here most likely and so making unexpected kills is something they might do based on things like who fosses who.

I don't see it.

Gif is at third place as likely scum but far enough behind you two that he doesn't concern me ATM. This is because of two faces play, and Hans interactions towards the slot. I don't think tf played well but I think his play made very little sense from scum for the most part.

It's fine for you to read him that way. I'd still say you should be concerned about the possibility of being wrong though. It's the only way to combat confirmation bias.

I also don't really have faith in wheme to decide the endgame since he's kind of been afk from the game for a very long time.

Whether or not you have faith in him, literally what choice do we have? Other than getting it right today, which should be our goal anyway.

[Hikari Link]

@Everyone:

Is there another power role that hasn't claimed? That's the only plausible scenario I see for Titus being scum.

Don't answer for anybody else, only for yourself.

If you claim, we will lynch Titus today. Please, nobody say anything about this post other than your answer.

[implosion]

Of course I'm concerned that I might be wrong. I've cultivated that read over a long enough period of time that I don't think reconsidering it is very likely to change it. I might look at it a bit more today but likely won't dive deeply into that slot unless we get to mylo.

It's not about what choice we have wrt wheme. I just don't really value prioritizing keeping that slot alive when there are two other slots that I'm pretty confident are town and he's not playing the game.

[implosion]

Still claiming vt.

[MathBlade]

@Everyone:

Is there another power role that hasn't claimed? That's the only plausible scenario I see for Titus being scum.

Don't answer for anybody else, only for yourself.

If you claim, we will lynch Titus today. Please, nobody say anything about this post other than your answer.

Vt