17 Kilos of Cocaine - [GAME OVER]

[Cephrir]

If he was following along anyway then you probably shouldn't townread opening posts anyway

[chesskid3]

Eh you have to look for the awkward like what's not there that you would expect to be there because he's hiding his scumbuddies

but the scumfucker 5000 knows all

[xyzzy]

I'm still recovering from being sick but I'm going to READ SOME POSTS today and then offer up thoughts

I'm probably not up to reading everything that's happened while I've been away but I'm going to start by ISOing anyone who has had a significant wagon on them recently???? that seems like a decent plan I think

[hitogoroshi]

alright so desperado

part of why I'm so coy on Kagami is just because sometimes towntells should be kept under your hat (and yes, my kagami-town tell falls in that category), and I think it's slightly sketch to want to keep forcing it after a hinted deflection. But the main reason I escalated it was because sometimes I like to give players I think are scum an "excuse" to not help the town, because a scum player would love to have this distraction to engage with instead of actually trying to be accountable to anything. whereas town should want to help the town even when I give a reason not to. So basically, you give scum something to do that's really far away from having any influence on the gamestate, and see which way they jump.

post 780 looked EXACTLY like that, with him being excited that he could ding me on the verbiage but not actually trying to forward any point. so I decided to just explicitly call out what I thought I was seeing to see what he did in response

if I had been awake for this

and you and I both know that a vote on either one of you right now would be pointless and go nowhere so I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing

I probably would have been super adamant I was correct because he's literally, explicitly saying "We both know the thing I'm doing is pointless in terms of influencing the lynch today, but it's still what I'm spending 100% of my time and effort on"

but I'm seeing all of the following posts at once, and some of his other posts about it have seemed townier. 806 and 838 seems like something that could come from town. I care a lot about always influencing the lynch but I know not everyone is as much of an extremist as I am about it, and if you're someone who comes in to mafia games imagining your goal is to understand every mystery and not just focusing on the lynches, yeah I suppose you would want to keep pushing.

so yeah Desperado - you are absolutely right I am deliberately stonewalling re: Kagami and I will continue to do so. I was pretty sure you cared so much because you were scum and this is a safe thing to do in thread instead of taking real stances, but now I can see the town angle on not liking it. temp truce contingent on you actually voting next post

UNVOTE: Desperado

I have thoughts on who to lynch instead but I'm doing them in a separate post

[hitogoroshi]

I could go for a wicked flash wagon given how we all feel about UT slot and the weird catchup pattern Chess mentioned.

I agree that Bins wagon is more informative now that Ginngie is intertwined so heavily with it (and I guess Kagami mentioned grapes, though I don't immediately see the connection). Still don't like it on gut but it's a much happier consolation prize.

At this point xyzzy would be almost more of a policy lynch because they're not really connected to anything. not a bad PL in isolation but when there's lots of good scum stuff going on I like PL's less. Whether I would want a xyzzy lynch more or less than Bins is actually a pretty interesting question, since I think Bins is more likely town but her wagon is a lot more informative than a xyzzy wagon would be

re Ginngie, I REALLY don't like this post (and to be honest this is part of the reason I mellowed on Despe catching up this morning):

all I asked him was why is kagami town. hito has stated three times that kagami is an extremely strong townread and I don't understand how he got there already. there is a huge difference between cephs take on kagami and hitos and I think it's alignment indicative so I'm pushing it

quality post

Ginn has literally never ever mentioned Kagami or Andrius, and only mentioned me once trying to get me to vote elli. so just cheering on "yeah! question that town read!" from the sidelines and otherwise just tunneling somewhere else REALLY puts me off. And it puts me off in a way where I'm specifically more inclined to believe Ginn is scum and Desperado is town (you don't do this cheerleading for your own scumbuddy). Town in a tunnel want a really tight and constrained lynch pool and definitely DON'T want a distraction off of their pet case, but scum always love to hear about some mislynches maybe being on the table tomorrow.

So I think my heart wants Wicked and Ginn the most. Bins and xyzzy are a distinct tier below but still fine. It's sort of annoying that Bins/Ginn almost certainly isn't a bus pair, which makes me want Bins less, but it's not as though my Ginn theory is rock-solid enough I can actively say "it's Ginn and not Bins". It's largely just one really bad gut ping.

I'll start here for now:

VOTE: Wickedestjr

[Cephrir]

Hey come over to this gin wagon that actually exists

[Wickedestjr]

Okay here are my reads. Right now I feel pretty comfortable town reading: {Bins, Bulbazak, Desperado, Spiffeh}

Bins-

She's the leading wagon right now, but I haven't seen any good reason for that. Her voting everyone that has attacked her was a good observation, but doesn't necessarily seem like a scum tell. That whole point boils down to OMGUS (correct me if I'm wrong), which I generally read as townish if anything. Several of her posts felt townish, including the soft claim, but the group of people on her wagon doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings.

Bulbazak-

I'm generally cautious when reading players who are good at scum (I've heard people compliment his scum game a couple times). But I still feel comfortable with this. His play kinda reminds me of my last game with him - I believe that was Inorganic? - where I was also able to correctly townread him. There have been a few instances where I remember seeing posts/comments from him that seemed uncalculated and townish. For example, in his conversation with Desperado it seems like he wasn't really paying attention. I feel like scumBulbazak would have his ducks in a row more and not have made that mistake. Iirc, that wasn't the first time he made a mistake of that nature.

Desperado-

Mostly a gut read. I don't think scumDesperado would choose to have no reads for so long. Everything that he's said so far feels genuine or town-motivated. He also very much doesn't strike me as someone trying to blend in, even though he was quiet in the beginning.

Spiffeh-

I remember really liking a few of his observations earlier on. He's probably capable of making those observations as scum, but my gut says that he's also genuinely relaxed and not really trying to 'look good'.


I am unsure about: {Cephrir, chesskid3, Firebringer, Ginngie, grapes, hitogoroshi, Kagami, WhemeStar, xRECKONERx}. Will need to do some rereading for them.

Cephrir

- He's someone I've been going back and forth on. Some posts I like, some posts I don't like. More on him later.

chesskid3

- I don't see why people are town reading him. Something just feels off to me. I need to look at some of his other games.

Firebringer

- He's been the most active player which is usually a good sign. But beyond that, I can't remember noticing anything telling from him.

Ginngie

- On the fence for her too. It feels like she genuinely believes in her Bins vote, which is good. But I actually shared Bins' sentiment that some of her posts felt forced. And I'm not scum. She is a big question mark for me.

grapes

- I like his current vote. Besides that, I haven't really seen anything especially interesting either way. He could be scum trying hard.

hitogoroshi

- Haven't seen anything particularly alarming or townish. I think he's capable of everything that he's done so far as scum.

Kagami

- No comment.

WhemeStar

- I remember getting town vibes from some of his posts earlier on like 127/129 and 190. Having said that, I wouldn't write him off as a 'newb' given that he's been playing for eight months and has a lot of posts. Haven't seen anything from him recently that has made me feel good about him. Need to see more.

xRECKONERx

- No comment.


Only a few noteworthy scum leans. I would prefer to lynch one of the following players: {ActionDan, Ellibereth, xyzzy}

ActionDan

- He is someone that I think is trying to appear townish. Also, I keep forgetting he's in the game. Don't like how he's flying under the radar despite posting regularly.

Ellibereth

- There are some posts from him that rub me the wrong way. In particular, I didn't like his vote for Desperado - it feels forced. Also, I remember his exchange with WhemeStar 265/267 being weird, not sure what that could mean though.

xyzzy

- It felt like he was interested in the cocaine mechanic more than scum hunting. I'm honestly not reading anything into his theory posts specifically, but I do think his vote for Firebringer is pretty bad. If he's town, then I hope he recovers in time to contribute something before day's end.

Vote: xyzzy

[Wickedestjr]

It's too late for this to be a townie entrance

He had time for 6 whining I can't post posts but no time for obvreads despite reading

You should reread. I actually only made one 'whining' post and it was at 1 am last night. I could have thrown out some reads last night, but that's just not my style.

[Wickedestjr]

Hey everybody!

Luckily, I had been following this game already, so I am pretty close to caught up. I see the deadline is in a few days so I'll try to do something soon.

long time no see wicked

Thanks Desp

[WhemeStar]

I won't be here today this game is to much work and I'm not feeling good

[Cephrir]

Solid posting

I'd be up for elli or Dan wagons

[xyzzy]

I've been kind of hopping around the thread but Ginngie's post 792 is a good post made by a town player

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 1.12

Bins [5] - ActionDan, chesskid3, Ginngie, Bulbazak, Kagami
Firebringer [1] - xyzzy
Ellibereth [1] - Spiffeh
ActionDan [1] - grapes
Desperado [1] - Ellibereth
chesskid3 [1] - xRECKONERx
Ginngie [3] - WhemeStar, Bins, Cephrir
xyzzy [2] - Firebringer, Wickedestjr
Wickedestjr [1] - hitogoroshi

Not Voting [1]

- Desperado

With 17 alive it takes 9 votes to lynch.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2017-09-28 08:00:00)

[Wickedestjr]

Mod:

I voted xyzzy. Too much bold in my post, I'll avoid that next time!

[Bins]

Ok i lied

Wickeds post is refreshing

VOTE: elli

very happy with this + with ginngies recent post I'm more wary (even tho it was bad)

[Bins]

I've been kind of hopping around the thread but Ginngie's post 792 is a good post made by a town player

O no u didn't


I can buy that it makes you townread them more but it is in no way a good post



... This could be an attempt to nudge me before xyzzy is gonna hop on me

[Bins]

{elli, Dan, xyzzy, ginngie} is also were my head is at so wicked is on the ball

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Elli

[chesskid3]

Solid posting

I'd be up for elli or Dan wagons

Ok i lied

Wickeds post is refreshing

VOTE: elli

very happy with this + with ginngies recent post I'm more wary (even tho it was bad)

VOTE: Elli

Cephrir man what are you doing

Like I know you're wary of Elli but take a step back and look at what you're doing.
You're literally derailing all the awesome town wagons and creating these opportunities.

[chesskid3]

Wickjestr catchup is horrible btw

This game with so many solidly justice players and you have 4 townreads and they're mostly gut? Nah man.

Like if you keep acting like these positions are acceptable and worthy of discussion, Ceph, you're gonna end up in the deathpile

Please don't end up in the deathpile.

[chesskid3]

I will join Jestr or stay on bins those are where I want to be right now. Bins is bigger so I'm staying here.

I prefer bins > Ginngie but I'm also willing to do Ginngie today and then bins tmrw if we don't get that sweet goopy scum juice reward.

Hito it may be time to bring the prodigal sheep back into the fold and reach a deal here because these sidewagons are killing me.

[xyzzy]

I've been kind of hopping around the thread but Ginngie's post 792 is a good post made by a town player

O no u didn't


I can buy that it makes you townread them more but it is in no way a good post



... This could be an attempt to nudge me before xyzzy is gonna hop on me

the vote analysis at the beginning is really good and while the bit about your use of the word "fake" feels a bit meaningless, it's the kind of analysis I can't see coming from scum

[Cephrir]

Solid posting

I'd be up for elli or Dan wagons

Ok i lied

Wickeds post is refreshing

VOTE: elli

very happy with this + with ginngies recent post I'm more wary (even tho it was bad)

VOTE: Elli

Cephrir man what are you doing

Like I know you're wary of Elli but take a step back and look at what you're doing.
You're literally derailing all the awesome town wagons and creating these opportunities.

I don't know why it's such an issue that I'm not mind melding your exact reads.

[Kagami]

Why on earth did you list players alphabetically within groups, jestr?

[chesskid3]

dude what?

Is that the issue? Did I say that was the issue?

No, the issue is that you're derailing my wagons