Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Regfan]

Hey everyone! Fairly aware of the precarious game state at the moment. Will be reading up on this tonight and probably share my thoughts and reads then. If there's anything in particular you want me to focus on when reading through let me know, people increasing their activity if possible over the next few days (Since running this down to deadline isn't a great idea) would be very much appreciated.

Will say that Cabd is v scummy to me, all these votes on town from him is very frikking much him being mafia, can we please just lynch him here? On the off chance he's town he deserves to lose and I'll just joint with the mafia there, win/win!

[Regfan]

Woah. Time to see if Regfan can guess it right for all the marbles as a confirmed town treestump.

Yeah, no pressure!

I'd like to line up a time to actually live discuss some reads with you if possible (I'm really not a fan or believer in "conftowns should hold their reads as to not influence others or have others just agree with them"), when do you think would work for you? Ideally give me ~24 hours to have caught up but after that most times work for me.

[Regfan]

40 hours from now is ideal for me too, well aware I'm not the only stump but organising multiple people to be online at once seems unrealistic.

[Regfan]

Awesome! I'll make sure to be up to date by then, currently back on page ~12 but there's already one person I'd be

very

surprised if they're scum.

[Regfan]

If you're able to be on then sure, but I don't think it's a huge deal if you're unable to. I'll probably chat with you a bit before then anyway.

[Regfan]

Will be home from work in a few hours, I'll drop the questions/things I'd like answered from you then.

[Regfan]

@Micc -

I'll preface this by saying I'm ~95% sure you're town here for a plethora of reasons but I have an inkling that some of the other players are leaning in the opposite direction. And if I'm going to bat for you here I'd like to be a little more certain you're town, so please don't take this as me attacking your play but more wanting to understand sections of it a bit more. Please take your time answering these since I'm in no rush and would prefer more detailed answers than quicker ones.

The three main things I'd like from you are the following:

1) I'd like your updated thoughts on Chip <-> SS/Zito and Chip <-> Hopkirk interactions throughout D1 now knowing that from your point of view one of them has to be mafia, I know you've gone into them previously in Post 896 and pointed out for the most part you didn't think they were mafia but obviously a reassessment and looking at it in light of the flips necessary. Also would like your thoughts on both SS/Zito & Hopkirks read progression on Chip as well as what they'd actually did in terms of getting him lynched revisited. I'd also like your stance of "scum aren't incentivised to buss" elaborated on since I very very strongly disagree and would almost 100% be bussing in this iteration of the setup, there's no investigatives to catch you and you don't have to worry about the "why haven't you been night killed" argument so a good buss leads to a win....a lot of the time. So convince me that your stance is something you genuinely believe(d) in and why here since you not having rethought through this is fairly out of line with the caliber of player I think you are and one of the few things stopping me from locking you as town.

2) I'd also like your thoughts on Zito & Hopkirk re; the fact that we know that mafia called followers (Which I agree is the sub optimal move) as well as their reactions to it happening and their involvement and posting during the Cheeky lynch; again you know that one of them submitted that action so which of their play around that area do you think makes more/less sense as scum due to it and why? I'm aware you've gone into this a bit in Post 914 but now that the BTD scenarios are out of the question I'd like you to delve a little more into this than just "WIFOM" as an explanation.

3) I'd also like a little more thoughts of yours on how the Northside/BTD/Cheekey lynches played out since I'm looking over that section of the game and just...wanting to bang my head against the table over and over again out of complete disbelief at how little actual conversation and re-consideration happened during those with the exception of yourself on Northside for a small period. I think there were a lot of points that could have been brought up to point out all three being town but very little were actually done so from yourself or others, so was there any thoughts you'd had on those three that you'd not put into the thread that might help me understand your play re; them a little more? And what do you make of Zito & Hopkirks play throughout that period?

[Regfan]

I'll be around casually finishing reading the thread and trying to get a solid grip on Hopkirk & Zitos alignment for the next few hours since I'm probably going to be advocating for a lynch between them here, if anyone wants to pop in and have a quick conversation about them it'd be appreciated.

[Regfan]

@Hopkirk -

I'm going to need you to explain a few things for me about your day 1 play here since I'm looking at your Chip progression and it's....a very bad look for you here, so convince me that this is you as town rather than just awkwardly distancing with your partner but not wanting to commit to a buss.

In your Post 110 you pointed out Chips "If I get lynched look on my wagon" as being overly concerned which was a good point IMO probably one of the scummiest posts from him in the thread. You then touch on something else you dislike of him in Post 245, your focus and vote being on NSG during this isn't great given the flips but is somewhat understandable given I don't think your reasoning behind being suspicious of her was awful or anything. You then spending Post 345 as to pointing out Chips weird read on you and focusing on issues in his posting in Post 346 to then move to vote Cheeky in Post 372 again isn't great re; flips but somewhat understandable given your reasoning. It's the move from her to BTD in Post 425 that I have the biggest problem with, sure you put some reasoning down with the vote but it's a read that doesn't match your previous reads so much and it not being a vote on Chip when a natural progression would suggest that's where you'd vote looks /very/ scummy to me there. Your first vote on Chip isn't until Post 531 after Zito drops some reasoning behind the slot being scum and Cabd/Micc have already moved across to him which I think is a mostly NAI type vote in that I think Town!You votes there and I can also see Scum!You voting there given your prior stated read on him and recognition that with the prior votes he was dead weight. The interactions you have with Chip differ quite a bit from those to Cheeky and NSG as well.

So like, if you're town here what was stopping you from voting or pushing Chip throughout D1? Can you explain the vote placement you had on BTD D1 a little more for me since I find it a particularly weird vote given your statement that you thought he'd subbed in later on in Post 883. What should be I be looking through your ISO and play this game and coming away with you being town from? Like what do you think you've done here that's outside your scum range or do you think you'd have done differently if scum? Really would take any ;words; from you here because I don't think the above is a nail in the coffin that points to you being scum or anything like that and I'm

very

far from making a decision or a call here but I interaction wise I don't see much that looks good for you.

[Regfan]

In summary- Chip was a lesser scumread compared to others for most of the game to that point. Scumread on Chip increased while other scumreads (or places to vote) decreased.

I understand the above and I think for the most part I have minimal issue with the placement and timing of your NGS and Cheeky votes, it's the BTD one that I'm still left ?? at and your reasoning of "I didn't vote Chip because I was going to move back to Cheeky so I went BTD" doesn't really actually explain much at all when my question is effectively why did you vote BTD over Chip there. Like if I'm going through your ISO and looking at your stated thoughts and reads the only mention of BTD from you before your vote on him is asking him to explain some reads/thoughts back in Post 247 and then bam suddenly he's the person you're voting over Chip who you spend a lot of effort and time commenting on. Like I'm looking at this and the fact that BTD has flipped town and Chip scum and wondering how you've barely been mentioned the past few days and just dumbfounded by it? I'm hoping your next post may explain what I'm missing here.

425- I unvoted because Cheeky said she was subbing out. I also hadn’t interacted with the slot, and it’s good to interact. Other reasons too, but I explained them in more detail last post. I also voted him partially as a potential Cheeky partner since Cheeky was by far my top scumread then.
I don’t see how it’s strange I voted him when I thought he subbed in. I thought he subbed in because he had no significant posts, so I didn’t remember him in thread before. In terms practical effect in that regard, he did sub in. I didn’t like his entrance.

Yeah, I can understand the unvote on Cheeky, zero qualms with that there, the "voted due to potential Cheeky" partner is somewhat understandable albeit not particularly good town play but like, if you take a look at the reasons you voted BTD for ie. his Post 383 and Post 421 and then compare them to your own stances it's kind of hard to fathom.

Like sure, BTD didn't vote Cheeky inside his first post and if you're contemplating a world of BTD!Scum & Cheeky!Scum that's something that you'll have in mind but faulting him for not voting inside 421 when he's commented on the replacement situation (ie. the same reason you'd unvoted her) feels hypothetical to a degree and if the reasoning is a case of "he's not voting anyone" which is what you have an issue with a vote count in Post 415 has Chip not voting so uhh?

I'm looking at your own posts and reads, your own reasoning and not understanding how you haven't voted Chip there.

[Regfan]

Was there anything of Chips that had you questioning your scum read on him at all or was there something holding you back from voting him at that stage is what I'm trying to get at because the BTD scum read a) Comes out of nowhere and b) Reasoning wise feels like it and more could be attributed to Chip with the exception of the "Feels like a Cheeky scum partner" section. I'll also take the 'what do you think you've done here outside your scum range' question answered which I'm imagining you're currently working on and whatever unfiltered thoughts you have on Zito & Micc would be awesome.

[Regfan]

Specific game points
Would have 100% targeted PZ as scum d1 since (at the time) I was sure that he was town.
On a similar note, it would be stupid of me to put UC as my top scumread and work at lynching him if I’d targeted him N1. Scum would want to avoid lynching people they’d targeted. Probably would have gone after BTD/North instead there.

Ha, was wondering if you'd bring this up and I think it being one of your go to things here is actually uh, not great.

I don't buy for a second that you'd target PZ as scum at all, I think PZ if town was Cabds most likely protect if he wasn't on himself. I was thinking a bit about this earlier and I think mafia N1 are wanting to target players that are a) Unlikely to be protected from Cabd and b) Players unlikely to be lynched any time soon.

I think players that fit that mould were almost only just UDC and yourself there since I think Micc/PZ were too risky to target there as saves and NSG/BTD/Cheeky were more likely mslynches. I don't necessary think UDC being the person that we know was targeted over yourself means you have to be mafia here at all but I think the action of a) Us knowing that UDC was targeted N1, b) You then pushing him D2 and c) Mafia making an obscure move and whispering N2 to d) You bringing this up as a reason why you're town here feels like something that makes a

lot

of sense if you're scum.

[Regfan]

Eh, see I can understand the "I use my votes to interact with players that I don't feel great about", it's not something I'd do with my vote as town but it's something I completely believe is something you would do. I'm just not reading the vote on BTD there at all as one of those type of votes? I can see it with lots of the others but that one feels more like a "Here's reasons why I think X is scum so I'll move to him since my scum read left" and that's where I think the disconnect is for me since I think the reasoning, your prior posts and a bunch of things should lead towards you voting Chip there.

The BTD vote for me personally looks like a "I can't keep my vote on the person that replaced out since that won't look great and I know Micc pointed this out from someone else earlier, I should move my vote, BTD looks like an easy spot" which feels scum motivated particularly if you factor in the flips.

[Regfan]

In this setup I’d probably protect myself around 90% of the time. I don’t see why scum would be concerned about Cabd protecting people other than himself (or if I did expect it, then I’d target Cabd).
Plus your logic applies equally to Micc/PZ. You’re only assuming Cabd would protect them more than me since you’re working from the position that I’m more likely scum than them.

But then you go into the "Scum think Cabd is protecting himself 90% of the time and therefore won't target him, that means Cabd can target elsewhere and be safe majority of the time" type mind games which just inevitably lead towards mafia wanting to select someone that won't be Cabds first choice if it's not himself.

And uh, I said mafia not targeting you N1 was meaningless, I don't think that makes you mafia ore more likely to be mafia at all, you're misconstruing what I've stated there. What I'm saying is that you were one of the few (maybe the only?) person that put forward UC's name as a lynch target D2, now that we know that he was primed N1 and that mafia

also

made the weird and suboptimal choice of selecting to whisper him N2 to outright reveal he was primed N1 I can see you doing that as scum to bring up this "I wouldn't push someone I selected" argument which you did bring up and was your go to when questioned.

[Regfan]

And with that, I'm likely heading to bed.

I'll let you answer those and get around to posting your thoughts on who in Micc/PZ you think is scum right now and why.

Should also give others (including my treestump buddies and noobcabd) to actually chime in on a bit of this since I also still have to get through reading PZ later.

[Regfan]

One more before I doze off.

Obviously I can only give my thoughts on what I'd do in the scenario since I haven't thought about it. However, when I play irl we usually use a Cop/Doc (who can self protect but not target the same person twice in a row) (though there's no flips), in about 200 games there's no case that comes to mind where a doctor didn't protect either themself or one of the cop/other pr claims after there were claims. Given that, I'd say I'd have been much more likely to self protect as Cabd, or to assume he'd self protect.

You implied it made me look worse than Micc/PZ when it's equivilent, except that I pushed UC the next day. I also would have most likely kept voting UC if they hadn't died. I also hadn't brought up that argument until you asked me just now. If that was the sole reason i made a suboptimal play, then why would i wait until now? The benefit i'd get even if it went perfectly is less than I'd get from an extra mislynch on UC. Most likely scenario to me seems that either scum wanted confusion, or made a mistake of some kind (could have been a mod error possibly i guess too).

I'm not quite sure where you're going with the first paragraph here, Cop/Doc is fairly dissimilar to this situation, in Cop/Doc mafia have to sort of deal with one of them otherwise lolgl, here they don't. PZ might be a good player and all but he's no cop which makes your "I'd target PZ N1 as mafia" kind of ???. Sure, it's plausible and likely Cabd selfprotects, that's not my argument, my argument is that scum are also likely to factor in "If he's not self-protecting who is he likely to be on" and pick someone that's not that person too which here people like UC fits, the UC selection is actually one that makes sense regardless of who scum is tbqf, I mean always the chance Micc!Scum selects you or You!Scum selects Micc or something like that but it's far less "safe".

Where I'm going is purely the "Mafia selecting UC, then priming him N2 which reveals he was selected N1" probably has some meaning towards it, I don't think it was a lolrandommistake, I'd like to think Micc as the setup creator would 100% not make that mistake and if he's making that move it's for an intentional reason, I'd also like to put both PZ and yourself in that category. Then we look at what that reason is, if it's PZ or Micc making the move is it just "Create confusion and see what they can get from it" but if it's you I can see "Push player, whisper him and then hope someone town reads me based on it" and this wasn't the first mention you had, you also had things like Post 886 before the most recent Post 975.

It's very plausible you're town here, I also don't think your argument on PZ is dreadful though I'd like to hear a bit more progression on that one since you said you thought it was Micc > PZ earlier but I'm cool to wait until you get more time and your computer resolves itself (GL!) to go into that but surely you can understand where I'm coming from here in that looking at your Chip treatment and play D1 knowing the flips and looking at your UC treatment knowing what mafia have done this game isn't a great look. So really anything you can do to convince me that either a) You're town or b) PZ or Micc is scum would be hugely appreciated.

[Regfan]

For the record, I'll reveal who i targeted each night later. Probably after regfan snuggles. It wasn't 100% self.

Eh, it's probably better if you don't? I mean from a curiosity point of view I'd love to hear but I don't see how it'll actually assist us at all and if anything just lets mafia know if they can 'Call whisperes' and win tonight if we mslynch today. So yeah, unless you think it helps us decide who's mafia hold that info.

[Regfan]

@Micc - Yeah I'm happy to wait for your analysis re; Zito/SS & Hopkirks D1 play/interactions.

I don't think scum have incentive to do the Day 1 hard bus because of how hard the setup swings in favor of town with a Day 1 scum lynch with this game being a great example. We've mislynched three times now and are still playing - in a micro. Heck if Cabd's a miracle worker we can mislynch again today and have a shot tomorrow.

I agree that lack of investigatives, lack of a nightkill, and having treestumped players around in the endgame are all reasons that scum have some incentive to buss. So altogether I don't think its unreasonable for scum to bus in this setup, I just think that the Day 1 hardbus is unlikely. I pretty much took it for granted that both ZIto and Hopkirk fell into that category until I reread and made post 896. That reread made it clear that Hopkirk was much less invested into the Chip lynch than I thought and it makes up a lot of the difference between him and Zito at this point.

If you think about it a little more a mafia lynch doesn't actually drastically increase the amount of mslynches that town receive throughout the game, if you play based on the logic that mafia only ever ignite to win the game you end up having a scenario where D1 is 7:2 (1), D2 6:2 (2), D3: 5:2 (3) meaning that town have at minimum 3 mslynches in hand before mafia could even just potentially win and that's only if their N1/N2/N3 primes all hit without being blocked or being on a player that'll be lynched. So without bussing mafia need 4 flat out mslynches to win this game in all likelihood, given there's been 3 mslynches so far and uh, this'll be lynch number 4 that means the difference between mafia having 2 members or 1 member left here is actually very minimal and then plays into the "Mafia should be playing to be read as not W/W" ergo "Mafia have a lot of reason to buss" area so while people helping lynch mafia D1 is nice and all it's very far from being a point to ruling them out.

So like you've mentioned this a few times now with "The swing of the setup makes a mafia lynch D1 hurt a lot", can you actually show me what you mean because the numbers I've run above point heavily against the statement you've made being true.

[Regfan]

We agree that it doesn't make strategic sense to ignite at that point in the game and I have a enough respect for Zito and Hopkirk as players that I'm going to rule out them not understanding the mechanics or strategy. All that leaves is someone trying to create WIFOM. If you really want me to go back and analyze their reaction/involvement/opinions over that day I guess I can but my preference is to not try and base my reads around things that are directly caused by scum injecting WIFOM into the game.

I can dig this with the caveat that I'd like you to comment a bit about my point on Hopkirks push on UC that I went into last night.

Thanks for the rundown of the NSG/Cheeky/BTD lynches, find most of what you've said pretty understandable and to match up with your play in thread.

[Regfan]

I went back to do VCA but the votecounts are too sparse. I'll have to manually recreate the various Day 1 wagons by hand which'll be fun. I'll work on that tonight.

I'm not a huge fan of VCA in most games but in this one with only 2 scum members and a D1 scum lynch I'm even more leery of it so what particularly do you think you

might

find from it that'll be helpful in solving this? Only asking because I fear you'll come out of this learning nothing and having spent quite some time on it whereas I'd rather you spend a little of that just laying down your unfiltered thoughts of the situation at hand.

[Regfan]

Sure, if you've got the time to burn go for it.

By unfiltered thoughts I mean more a case of if Cabd (He violent) put a gun to your head right and told you to the name the mafia or be shot in the head who would you tell him and why? And what's your confidence level in that person actually being mafia here 60%? 70%?

[Regfan]

0% sounds pretty confident to me!

I wouldn't mind you running through why you thought Cheeky was a likely candidate for scum with Chip since you mentioned it in Post 636 and again in Post 717 and Post 826 but never really explained it at all so while we now know it's not the case I'd still like to hear what made you believe this.

I'll also take some ;words; about your Post 910 particularly about your read on Hopkirk and his BTD push since I'm finding it difficult to believe you'd went through his ISO at that stage and come out with the stance you have here at the time.

[Regfan]

@ BTD - Night 2 kill doesn't really factor into my read on Micc much at all, if he's scum the purpose of the kill is largely a "Frame some of the lesser experienced players and use his knowledge of the setup to dissuade people from thinking he made the play", given most of the players that were lesser experienced were already in the lynch pool it's not hugely beneficial for him but there's always the "He made the move to dodge the lynch today" element so all up it's probably not something I'll read hugely into? I don't think he makes that kill to get the Cheeky lynch due to the slot being empty if that's what you're referring to there at all.

I'm pretty confident he's town here, you got any other reasons that you haven't already gone into that you want to air out to make me reconsider that?

[Regfan]

Yes Micc but how do you differentiate "Mafia wouldn't buss strongly D1 as they fall very far behind" as a thing, ultimately mafia dying on D1 is the same as mafia dying on D2/D3 etc? At the very start of the game mafia are going to either believe in both of them to endgame together in which case realistically 4 mslynches is a win for them or that one of them is going to die at some point and realistically 4 maybe 5 mslynches is going to win the game for them, the fact that the real difference between losing a member and not losing a member is in the range of 0-1 extra mslynches required to win the game is actually very small and most certainly small enough for it to be well and truly worthwhile to buss if you think you can do it well.

[Regfan]

@Cabd - You done much/any meta reading into any of the three of them at all this game?

[Regfan]

@Micc - I think I disagree re; the "Distancing but not bussing" being the smart play for the scum here given the odds of town ML'ing D1/D2/D3 in a row via 'random lynching' is down at ~35% and in practice probably closer to ~20% but I can at least see where you're coming from with it now.

Looking forward to your rereads thoughts & analysis.

[Regfan]

@Northsidegal, if you're around now I'd be cool hearing where your heads currently at particularly pertaining to PZ and Hopkirk.

[Regfan]

Unacceptable!

No problem. Are you in agreement with me that Micc is probably town here? If so then it's just a case of us discussing where we're both at with the other two, if you're uncomfortable ruling out Micc then I'd kind of like to see the qualms you've got with him here so I can take a look at them myself.

[Regfan]

I'd like your thoughts on the PZ & Chip interaction in the spoilered posts, specifically re; the discussion based around Chips read on SS/PZ.

Spoiler:

Fwiw, I just re-read the SS ISO, and i still think it is solid, so that carries over to Papa Zito.

BTD has been avoiding making strong reads, yes, but he is very conscious of that and keeps drawing attention to it, so he definitely not hoping it will go unnoticed. And he is actually right, there hasn't been anything to form a strong read on yet, so i am sympatico. His approach contrasts with the Micc/CT overstate-and-bluff approach to scumhunting, which also has its merits when used correctly. I'm not feeling BTD's CT vote though. I think he probably just a thoughtful, cautious player who will hopefully get stronger reads as the game progresses. If not then can lynch, but i won't be lynching him today.

I think I'll wait for substantial posts from UCV before actually voting. I'm inclined to look at BTD's wagon next. I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot. Time to revisit Hopkirk, methinks, esp since i still hold the view that he and Micc are unlikely both to be scum.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

Hello Chip. Let's talk about this sentence.

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

Seriously Chip. Put a vote into play.

Predit: haha, haven't you realized that Chip's go to method of reading people is that activity=Town, any sign of lurkyness=scum and absent=null.

The Magic Chip Formula.

I'm not really lurking I'm just feeling really confident in my reads. Which is weird but nice. So atm I'm much more interested in supporting my townreads efforts in doing things than trying to drill down on my own.

Other than Chip. I do want to have a chat with Chip. Speaking of which:

Sure. If your slot didn't have the SS history behind it, i would be at least have you leaning scum atm.

oh no

but why

The Magic Chip Formula.

Do you want to know how I derived it? I looked at the activity table and noticed I'm the most prolific poster. Since from my own pov at keast I'm also townest, i realised that there is a perfect correlation there. Then i extrapolated to everyone else.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

rofl I don't owe that guy anything and I sure as hell don't need to "town it up a bit"

Which hey look you've once again made a super vague statement. So here I am asking why you're tossing shade instead of either determining alignment or pushing a wagon. Can you plz solve this mysterious mystery.

[Regfan]

If I'm being more precise it's these comments from Chip that I want you to weigh in on but the whole context above is needed to read them;

I've been mentioning Micc a fair bit lately, and

Zito is ex-SS so probably okay for now, even though he seems to be intent on scumming up the slot.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along.

And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

Questions open to anyone; do you think the above points towards PZ!Town, PZ!Scum or just not worth reading too much into?

[Regfan]

Yeah, your analysis on PZ in Post 1018 is where I'm at with his recent play a lot too in that after the Chip lynch D1 I haven't seen much reads from him in the thread at all or really got the solid feeling that he's trying to find scum with the exception of a few posts of his. It's plausible it's just him as town feeling comfortable with the game state, confident town reads and a scum down already but it's also possible it's him coasting as scum and letting town lead mslynch after mslynch, the fact there's not a lot form both him and Hopkirk in that period doesn't make this easy. I'm looking forward to his explanation behind his "Cheeky fits as partners with Chip" type read that he'll be going into shortly but I wouldn't also mind the BTD vote upon replacing in touched on from him now too after reading your post.

You've sort of touched on what I was after about that PZ/Chip interaction in that I'm trying to work out if it's a case of scum forcing an interaction between the two of them and trying to be read as not partners due to it or if it's a case of Chip just being really awkward upon being correctly scum read, pretty undecided on the two, it's just an interaction that strike me as really weird for scum to have with town but also for scum to have with scum.

Had a slight Aha moment earlier and thought I'd stumbled across something rather damning, still may have but I'm going to think it through before posting.

[Regfan]

When you get home I wouldn't mind you reading through my interaction with Hopkirk from last night and stating your thoughts on that.

Also where's the treestumps???

[Regfan]

Haha, sorry about that.

Yeah, the two big qualms I have with Hopkirk currently is a) His BTD vote placement rather than Chip as it makes plenty of sense and fits a pattern of him distancing with Chip but not wanting to buss and I just find it very hard to see that being a vote someone makes with his reads as what they are at the time and b) Him jumping to the "Would shoot PZ N1 and not UC" as I find the former statement very hard to believe being something he'd think he'd do N1 here and the latter prime/kill/his statements after actually make a lot of sense if he's mafia here.

I'll spoil my aha moment type thing but it's effectively this;

He stated that he'd select PZ N1 if he's scum here, I explained how mafia N1 would be aiming for targets that are unlikely to be protected or unlikely to be mslynched and how I didn't think PZ fit that, he turned it around with a Cop/Doc type hypothetical which really didn't fit the scenario we were taking about.

Want to take a guess what it does fit though? Yeah, you got it, what scum would have had to have thought last night when submitting their action, if mafia are making their action last night on the assumption that PZ isn't getting mslynched today the have to submit on one of PZ/Cabd to have a kill to win.

Anyway there's my stuff dumped down, wouldn't mind a few people chiming in.

[Regfan]

I probably haven't explained that well but I think if Hopkirk is mafia the decision (his night action) from last night seeped into the discussion I had with him big time.

[Regfan]

@Regfan/1025:
a.) Why are you ignoring that I scumread North more than Chip? I don’t see why you’d expect me to vote for Chip over North here if I’d chosen not to vote BTD.
b.) Here’s the thing, you can’t say ‘Hopkirk would only think about this if he was mafia’ when you directly asked me to think about it today, and I spent 15+ minutes thinking about it.
Also if you don’t think the cop doctor think fit then you clearly don’t understand what I was saying there. After thinking about it (when you asked me to think about it remember), I recognised it was similar to the meta that 70% of my games have been played under, so I’d have likely followed that meta as scum (unless I recognised it was meta then I guess and tried to avoid it).
I also maintain that if I was scum, PZ would have been the best pick n1 for me. You’re claiming it isn’t, and handwaving my thoughts on why it would be.

a) Think I'd have been completely more comfortable with you voting North than BTD since it'd not be as weird a progression as what was shown in the thread, that said I think it's questionable that you scum read North more than Chip at that period of time, we're talking about the vote change being directly after you'd spoke about your Chip read a bit. We're unlikely to get anywhere with this so others weighing in would be nice though.

b) Uh, I didn't ask you anything about the night kills? I asked why you're town here, you using that as more an argument instead of other things is what's problematic specifically when what you brought up I think explains why mafia did what they may have done N2. I was expecting a lot more "I'm outside my scum range as I don't do ___ play as mafia or go into reads like __ as mafia" type things but it felt like you were struggling with that.

I still continue not to understand your comparison to Cop/Doc N1 even if that's a setup you're primarily played, in Cop/Doc you have to address them as early as possible as leaving them alive well is not really an option. Here there's no cop, it's not just 2 people you're deciding inside of, it's 7 people.

[Regfan]

@NSG - Think Cabd has had to bail on it, still very interested in hearing your thoughts/reads right now.

@Zito - You call that a quote wall? MoI and RC would be very disappointed right now.

The early semi-defenses of Cheeky feel like a really really flimsy reason to think they're linked there. The "This feels like TvT" and "Oh no are you scum" are probably the few posts you've quoted there that I think looks bad upon his flip. Did you take a look at her thinking that Cabd had scum slipped and the way she went into explaining that when you'd scum read her or at any point? Would like to hear how you thought that came from scum.

[Regfan]

i'm not flaking on the treestump party - i thought it was today!

I'll be in and out for the next few hours, just post when you're cool to do it and I'll try and be here. Would actually like making some headway on solving this.

If you had to attribute %'s of likelihood of it being PZ/Hopkirk/Micc right now what is your %/%/%?

[Regfan]

I don't think we're going to get anywhere with a) anymore, when looking at reads I'm looking at natural progressions, I don't think yours flows, if you're town obviously I'm wrong but talking about it more between just us and others not chiming is silly, b) I was moreso looking for things about your play this game that you could sell me on you being down due to, I got very little of that and the bits I did were weak and as for c) I'm saying this whole doc/cop type thing that you've brought up is just baffling for me because the argument has never been that "Cabd will never self save" or "Cabd will always self save", it's just me saying that mafia also have to consider who he'd be on if not himself and that'd impact their decision N1, you're the one that deviated it to some really weird place.

At this point I really need others to actually get in here and state some thoughts and if you're town Hopkirk your focus from hereon out should be looking at Micc & PZ and letting me know who's scum and most importantly why, that's the best way to convince me I'm wrong on you as well as ensure we lynch mafia today.

[Regfan]

Also Cabd, I'm sure you're aware how bad an idea it is to run this down to the deadline, we should ideally be lynching with multiple days to spare so when you get the chances and are online next would like you to respond to my earlier question and dump your thoughts since right now I'm probably only 60/37/3 re; confidence levels.

[Regfan]

I saw a big post and I was like "Yes, finally something to read PZ on", had a chuckle during reading it but now I'm left wanting more meat from you.

I'm talking about the spoiled below from her, I assume you'd read it at some point of the game? I personally thought it made her very obviously town since "I think X has scum slipped" and the thought process behind it being so detailed is a very hard thing to fabricate as scum and he way she'd dropped it all felt very much like an attempt to gamesolve. That said I can somewhat understand her lynch being a mechanical type one with the "The night action makes the most sense if she's just mafia" but in your case you'd scum read her before then, so yeah, what made you think the below came from scum?

Spoiler:

I have some interesting points on Cabd, including what I think is a scum slip, which I will go into at some stage, a strange feeling about micc and NSG but I think I'll have to PoE these slots when I get more from my null reads, I'll say null town on them for now.

The setup isn't anything too complex, I will note we will NOT get flips night one; and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.


The two "self-docs" here should be treated somewhat like you would bulletproofs in the matrix 6 setup, with the note that them claiming early like the matrix 6 BP strat is a bad idea.

Can anyone else see it here? I'm being vague intentionally.

I was right lel.

As town I would have expected you to have a different reaction. I'll confess I don't base anything on meta so there is a chance I'm wrong, which you'll get to refute when I point it out what it is I see. Hint: it's not the setup error.

I know it's not the setup error~

There's another good reason to make the slip you think is a slip.

Does it only make sense in the context of your overall entrance?

Are we playing mafia, or lateral thinking puzzles?

BY all means though, proceed, senator.

Lol! Sorry I'm trying to maximise on the potential of this push so that it will provide reads on others' reactions as well as on yours.

The setup isn't anything too complex,

I will note we will NOT get flips night one;

and no-lynching in this setup is almost always the wrong move.


The two "self-docs" here should be treated somewhat like you would bulletproofs in the matrix 6 setup, with the note that them claiming early like the matrix 6 BP strat is a bad idea.

Ok so the bold is what pings me. We know, and Cabd has admitted, that he rushed in and didn't read the setup. If he were vanilla town he would have received the role PM which gives us the "lingering spirit" ability. He would not know that scum cannot whisper and kill the same night if he did not receive the scum role PM. His mistake with the two-self docs initially alerted me to the fact he hadn't read the set-up, so one can assume that he's only read his role PM and that is the information he's basing this post on.

Therefore I believe Cabd is scum.

interested in seeing where this is going to go but unfortunately i have to log off for the night to finish this econ pset. hoping to see some answers/content from cabd when i get back tomorrow

final question:

Ok I'm here I only really wanted Sobolev to answer, so I'll proceed.

cheeky what were you hoping to glean from my answer? why just me?

I wanted to make sure you weren't his buddy or at least to get a grip on the relationship. The fact you couldn't see anything made sense and your tone was genuine curiosity rather than discrediting. It reinforced my town read.

As for your Post 910 it's the Hopkirk read I'd like to see a little more explained about since you seem to think his BTD push is and timing is perfectly logical whereas I'm looking at it and reading it as very unnatural there. So what about it did you like exactly at the time and what's your thoughts on it

now

?

[Regfan]

just on intuition i think that hopkirk is town here. obviously i'm going to review but unlike with micc or with pz where looking back i can see some of their actions in the context of scum, i have a hard time imagining any scenario where hopkirk was scum this game.

Can you be a little more specific about this because lol I'm kind of in the opposite boat where I'm looking through Hopkirks ISO and there's very few things that look townie to me at all and can see a few things that have scum motivation behind them, most of which I've gone into recently.

when it comes to micc and pz, someone has already gone through the main points that i had with regard to the pz/chip interactions. chip seems to approach pz's attempts to start a conversation not as a townie pointing out that they're scum, but as a scumpartner starting some theater. i think it's only after the four votes pile on in quick succession that chip gears it up and realizes that he's being hard bussed - he goes from approaching the conversation attempting to get both of them townread more to more of a panic mode where it seems like he's actually going to get lynched.

Yeah, I think I commented on this earlier and everything you're saying here makes sense.

the nightkill is an entirely different bottle of wifom. what we know is that scum primed ucv night one and ignit night two. initially, we thought that the seemingly nonsensical action of igniting would indicate that cheeky's empty slot had just taken the random action, but that was proven wrong. from there, now it seems like the prevailing theory is that scum did it as an intentional act of confusion, but i'm not so sure. what i think we should all consider is going back to the possibility that scum just weren't around to submit an action, even though it wasn't cheeky's empty slot. with that in mind the only relevant piece of information that we would have to discuss would be the ucv priming night one. disregarding the extranous night two action saves us from wasting our time and chasing ideas that go nowhere on the wifom that is the ignition, and lets us focus on the actions that we can more probably presume to be relevant (the motivations behind the priming).

This is kind of meh for me in that I don't think it's likely the night action was due to "Someone forgetting to submit" at all, I think the odds of that being the case are in the low 1-2% region which means there's a little more to the actual act of doing so, I'm fine with people not wanting to focus too much on it due to "WIFOM" though I've obviously stated my theory on the matter. I don't think we'll gain anything from "Why was UC selected N1" since I explained earlier mafia have to pick someone unlikely to be saved or lynched, he fits in every world for that.

Is there anything from Micc that makes you think he's mafia here that I can take a look at or do you want me to explain my town read there?

[Regfan]

I don't think Cheeky being wrong about Cabd scum slipping has any real relevance to whether it comes across town or not? I think her thought process shown behind why she thought he scum slipped makes plenty of sense and I think the manner in which she put "parts of it down" in the thread at a time to try and work out the other scum also makes sense as town. That said willing to just accept we may read games very differently if you didn't read that as town.

I....don't think Post 424 is a terrible post from BTD? I think the stance of scum reading the Chip slot but wanting to wait for a replacement before throwing down a vote on it is something that makes a lot of sense? I would agree that it'd be nice to have seen more from him there but his "I'll give you a better answer later today" would probably mean giving him that time and not uh, voting him a few hours later is the right move? Like, look at Hopkirks reads and thoughts before that BTD post, he's attacking and scum reading Chip but he puts the aside to vote BTD on reasons that all can be attributed to Chip as well?

Like you've got some dude who's just come back from V/LA, has said he's going to post more later that day, you've got a player you're been scum reading throughout the entire game, you vote the first dude a few hours after he said he'll be back. How is that not hugely problematic?

[Regfan]

Not much point leaving my vote where it is when it’s waiting for a replacement.
VOTE: BTD6

383 – Gives light scumread on Cheeky, doesn’t follow it with a vote, and promises more content later.
421 - Two days later. No further catch up. Follows up slightly on Cheeky but no vote. Complains about activity (kind of ironically).

Don’t really like the entrance. Both those posts look longish, but have no significant content in them. I could very easily see the Cheeky vote as a bus.

Like, lets just look at the above reasons here.

His posts about #383 is mostly fine but his points about 421 is actually really really really really bad.

BTD didn't vote Cheeky because the slot was getting replaced, the same reason that Hopkirk was unvoting Cheeky to vote BTD so this should absolutely not be something that Hopkirk could be scum reading. Similarly Cheeky was fucking replacing out, how could BTD have followed up on her more when the slot was empty? How is that something to scum read him for. There's no further catch up but there is him saying in that post that he'll be having more spare time later that day where Hopkirk votes him before he gets a chance to get around to. So when you're looking at this and calling it a 'good' or 'logical' vote I'm left just going ????

[Regfan]

I'm obviously not being clear here, I think there were some solid reasons to be scum reading BTD at that time in the game, I can understand people scum reading him there and think I may have as well actually. What I'm trying to get at is that if you actually open up Hopkirks ISO and look through his reads and thoughts in the day and the progression behind them the BTD one comes out of nowhere. Obviously this'll be partially due to BTD not being active before then but if you look at the timing and reasoning behind this vote I struggle to believe that you liked it since I'd probably have burned him D2 for it.

Look at the reasoning he's presented for the vote, then look at how much (if not all) of that reasoning could be attributed to Chip there and it's bad, add to that the fact that a decent chunk of the reasoning behind the BTD vote just doesn't make sense (Didn't vote Cheeky in his recent post due to replacing out v Hopkirk unvoting Cheeky due to replacing out), like if I'm looking at this reasoning behind his vote the only way I buy it is if he's town and really was confident in Cheeky being scum and was using interaction stuff to convince himself that BTD was more likely due to it but that's a read that'd be attached to him so others looking at that reasoning and calling it good is concerning particularly later in the game when reassessment should have kicked in.

[Regfan]

So this is how I'm seeing it;

1. Hopkirk spends a few posts throughout the early/mid period of D1 pointing out some solid reasons on why Chip is scum. He at the same time has scum reads on both NSG & Cheeky and is spending more of his time focusing on them then him. He initially is voting/pushing NSG then lessens his concerns with her and starts pushing on Cheeky. None of this is an issue at all if you look at it alone, it's just needed context for what comes next.

2. Cheeky replaces out, Hopkirk unvotes Cheeky due to it and has to find a new place to move his vote, one would think the most logical placement if you're looking at his prior reads and stated thoughts would be Chip and if not him then back to NSG but it's to BTD. Given just the fact that we know that Chips mafia and playing in a world where we don't know BTD/Cheeky/NSG's alignment this should be a bit of a red flag here, now that we do know their alignments it's even bigger an issue.

So then it comes down to looking at Hopkirks reasoning behind voting BTD at that stage over some of the reasoning that he'd brought up about Chip.

His reasoning for voting BTD there is effectively:

a) He's promised content and not followed through on it and his statement here about it happening in #383 is fair but his statement about it in #421 is rather harsh (I think you're mixing up and confusing that #421 & 424 are separate posts, it's 421 he's scum reading, #424 has no real mention from him), overall it's not a dreadful reason for a vote but could have been attributed to Chip even moreso.

b) That he's not placed a vote on Cheeky and that he thinks Cheeky is probably mafia and therefore the lack of vote is suspicious, this is something that only makes sense to him, no one else should be really looking at this and going "Yeah, this is a good point to make BTD mafia" but if it's just the lack of a vote being placed fullstop that was an issue to him well Chip hadn't placed a vote at that time either and was a more active player.

So I'm looking at the, vote and the timing of it and scratching my head and am unsure why you haven't/aren't doing so too.

[Regfan]

Yeah, we're clearly not making any progress here and I'm getting equally frustrated too so we can just end this, I think we're just very different players since it's not really a case of "moving goalposts" but moreso just explaining context-> the issue which I don't think you've really seen but meh.

I'll just wait on your reread for your thoughts on Hopkirk/Micc overall and who you think is scum/why before actually proceeding then.

[Regfan]

No problem Cabd, whenever you get the time then.

@Hopkirk RE;

Post 1053/Post 1054/Post 1055, we're not going to agree on b) here in that I think the fact that what you went to makes sense with the weird action N2 is something that's very difficult to completely ignore, not a smoking gun but certainly not a great look, for c) You're looking at it in a "If you think Cabd is on himself then shooting PZ is fine, if you think Cabd is on PZ then shooting Cabd is fine" approach, I'm looking at it in a "If you think Cabd is deciding likely between himself and PZ then shooting elsewhere is the correct move" type one which I think are worlds apart. We're not going anywhere with this though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I fully understand the concept of "My vote on BTD was a placeholder to move back to Cheeky when the slot gets filled and thought her being scum made him decidedly likely due to it as well", I can believe that potentially being the case and if you're town here obviously was. Surely you can also understand how looking over that area and thinking "Hopkirk could potentially be distancing with Chip with his read on him but not wanting to buss" given the information we have here. I also kind of find the way that you voted him here to be more in line with how I see people "drop down a case" rather than wanting to interact with a player. It's rather different from how you handled Cheeky and NSG earlier. Can you link me to an instance where you've placed a vote in similar manner before as town? If so I'm happy to drop this.

Just so we're clear you believing that BTD is scum due to those reasons and someone else looking at that post of yours and thinking "Those were good reasons to scum read BTD" are different since they wouldn't have the Cheeky assosication that you would. I don't fault Micc as much for this since his reasoning behind his vote was explained in Post 431 where he states he's voting him to create a meaningful wagon which frankly was needed at the time and I also don't fault PZ for voting BTD there at all in that I can see why PZ would/did scum read BTD at that time and it makes sense so it wasn't exactly them voting him due to loving the reasoning you had in either case. That said I think PZ's Post 910 where he states that vote is one of the reasons he's town reading you is where my qualm lies because I think regardless of your alignment that areas not a great look for you and I'd like to think after mslynching twice in a row (?) a more solid reread would have been done with some of this brought up earlier. His conversation with me earlier didn't help a lot in this other than just point out how differently we approach scumhunting and the game which means it's plausible it's just a playstyle clash that I'm having an issue with.

Really appreciate you taking the time to do the analysis in Post 1056->Post 1058 I'll be reading them properly later when I have time.

[Regfan]

No that's fine, I don't expect an answer to my recent post, was mostly just airing to you where my thoughts are. I'll be stepping back mostly for the next ~24 hours and just reading through your guys comments and hopefully something from Cabd/NSG etc before actually stating where I'm at.

It's not really a meta link for a game where you've moved your vote due to a replacement that I'm after but more do you remember a situation as town where you've placed a vote on a player "To try and interact with them / get a read on them" that you think resembles your vote on BTD here as that's not how I'm reading that vote currently and confirmation from you that you've treated someone like that in the past as town would be pretty helpful.

[Regfan]

Thanks for those links & the summary on Micc, I'll be reading them in my breaks at work tomorrow.

[Regfan]

Still reading along & reading back through the thread, hoping PZ/Cabd come in with their thoughts soon here, day ending in ~1 week and it not being a great idea to run this to deadline means people should really avoid putting off things if they can, ideally we get some votes down in the next 3-4 days.

Still need to look through Chip again, and look at PZ closer.

Looking forward to this as well as you sort of summarising where your heads at when you finish up.

[Regfan]

Really hoping PZ doesn't need to be replaced here and turns up in time.

@Cabd - If you think you can get some of your thoughts down in the next ~6 hours or so it'd be appreciated since I can devote some time to actually reading through Hopkirk & Miccs recent posts with them in mind before dropping where I'm at after that.

[Regfan]

Reg? I'm here and coming to a decision now.

Awesome, here now too and about to read your SS post.

What's your read on Miccs play throughout the entire game / this day phase and what do you make of Hopkirk?

[Regfan]

@Cabd -

For me there's only really three things that point towards Micc being mafia at all here, let me know if you think there's more than these;

1) The lack of actual push and pressure from him on Chip throughout early/mid D1, there were lots of interactions between them and lots of Micc stating he's scum reading Chip but when it actually comes down to it there's not a lot he did to try and get Chip lynched at all, this is something Hopkirk pointed out recently that I think is a valid point. Think it also makes sense as town trying to avoid going all tunnely in the early game but it's not the best look given the flip.

2) The ignition can make sense from him as mafia if you're looking at it in the "He's able to make the strongest case about him knowing it's suboptimal as mafia and therefore possibly be faslely cleared due to it" knowing that he was already a scum member down and needed something to put himself in a better position come the late game to secure the win. That said think this action can make sense from others too so I'm trying to avoid reading

too

much into the N2 action if I can.

3) His stance of "Scum wouldn't buss" for the mid stage of this game is one I strongly disagree with and if he's scum one that he can easily use to get himself through a few easy day phases. I've already run through how I think if anything this setup promotes bussing more than dissuades it and the path of "Take easy lynches on players that didn't push Chip D1 and then do a turnaround to get someone that helped get his later int he game" makes plenty of sense to do as scum and is probably the route I take as mafia here. I did kind of like his discussion with me at the end and started believing that he really holds the stance he claims to have on this though.

Then if you take a look at the things I find town from him it's;

a) His interactions both directions with Chip throughout D1 feel very much like S/T rather than S/S and a lot of things said between them that I'd struggle to see partners doing here. b) I find his read progressions, thoughts and actions throughout the game to very much match what I'd expect from town attempting to gamesolve and lynch their scum reads, I don't see this as much from the other two people at all which leads me to c) If Miccs scum here he'd have designed this entire game to end up at this exact F4, he'd have known N1 that barring something unusual happening he'll get here which makes how much of a hole he put himself in re; how strongly he town read both other players feel like it doesn't have much scum motivation behind it.

If you want specifics that I really liked of his the handling of the Chip scum flip to him dropping a vote on NSG to elaborating on it in Post 635 and conversing with her in Post 644 to then unvoting a few days later in Post 714 with the "Haven't had that aha moment yet" type explanation being something I can very much understand, to the way he moved back to vote her again in Post 745 is just a read progression that feels /very/ real and genuine.

I've also liked most of his interactions and answers to me since I've replaced in.

So tldr; I think he's town here, I'm not as 100% sold on ruling him out as I was earlier but I'd probably recommend lynching in the others unless you've got a big point about Micc that I'm missing here. Really just /words/ about where you're at with him would be super super appreciated.

[Regfan]

regfan lets talk. ill let you pick the topic

I'll take whatever thoughts you have on Hopkirk and his recent posts and analysis about both yourself and SS.

Just unfiltered unedited thoughts from you here would be nice.

[Regfan]

I'm moreso after your thoughts on his Post 1056->Post 1059, what do you make his thoughts and assessment of your play? Do you think he manner in which he's assessing it is coming across as genuine/forced do you think any of the points he's bringing up or focusing on is good/bad? Same goes for his read on SS Post 1068?

Like how has that posting impacted on your reads if at all?

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

[Regfan]

Effectively reg I'm lookign for reasons to townread the initial SS/Zito stuff BEFORE DA WAGON

I've got things I like and dislike from SS? None of them are particularly strong though. SS's stance of town reading Chips reaction towards being wagoned is just weird all around, it's a hard stance to believe a townie had given I thought Chips reaction was p woeful but it's also a hard reaction to see a scum partner do there since like, what's the gain in hard linking yourselves that early? So I'm probably not going to read

too

much into it overall?

I didn't like his reaction towards the Cheekys "I've got something on Cabd" in Post 199/Post 203 and hated his response to you post claim in Post 234, they all read very awkward? and not at all like real thoughts from him there and the "I had no idea you were a PR before you claimed" feels like a very weird part to attach.

Not sure who brought it up but SS interacting a lot with Micc and trying to get him to join him a lot to him sticking Micc so low in Post 287 is a real bad look.

[Regfan]

@Micc - Just in case you missed it would like this answered;

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

If you're town here I'm sure you've got a million things going through your head, actually airing them a) Helps us to make sure we're making the correct decision since we'll be more informed and b) Will help me feel a bit better about you to quell the "What if I'm getting played by Micc" doubts in my head.

[Regfan]

I'm more likely to be able to rule you out by seeing you genuinely attempting to work out which of the two of them is scum than talking to you about yourself.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Regfan]

Eh, there's some things that I think shouldn't be read overly in a LYLO since they're more playstyle of competency dependent, I don't think everything is though.

I know there's ~100's of different things that are currently factoring into my thoughts about who's mafia/town, I think if you're town you're likely to have a lot going through your head, I think if you're scum you'll somewhat struggle in being approaching and discussing these things. That's why I think there's more gain from you just dumping where you're at here than me talking you about you. I think you said you were going to read through Chip interactions, how'd that go?

[Regfan]

I think I mentioned earlier but I wasn't a huge fan of Zitos reasoning behind scum reading Cheeky and including her in the last of players he was willing/happy to lynch D2. It didn't feel like a case of him actually going through her ISO and looking at everything there and coming out with a read but moreso looking at "X/Y" and thinking "That doesn't look good", the problem comes when trying to work out if that's just due to him being comfortable with the situation of the game as town after lynching mafia D1 or being mafia and taking advantage of the fact that several townies had things that made them mslynchable.

I think your point about him standing back rather than takings stances today is somewhat fair in that I think him stating he'd be doing VCA sounded like busy work to me and when he stated he has spare time to get it done and then well..not doing it or anything productive in that time doesn't feel like him trying to game solve. That said he's legitimately not been on the site in a while so it's plausible somethings come up, I'm hoping when he gets back in here he gets around to stating his reads.

[Regfan]

Yeah I'm not sure how that D2 plays out if you don't come out the gates swinging on NSG. I also don't know how D4 plays out if there's not a huge debate and argument between BTD and yourself. The fact that both those days and D3 re; the Cheeky mechanical lynch were so...focused around that makes it very hard to get a good feel about who's scum here because if you're town then whoever out of PZ and Hopkirk has been put in a situation where as scum they don't have to actually do anywhere near as much as they'd normally have to do and if you're scum here it's very hard to strongly town read them based on how little they did. That said I may be alone in this but I've found your play throughout the entire game very easy to follow, most read progressions and pushes from you make sense with how I think you're evaluating the game so if you're scum here congrats? Need to really nail down and work out who's scum in the other two.

You've spoken a bit about your issues with PZ and his push on Chip, I'd like to hear a little more on you from Hopkirk, is there anything in the game so far that makes you think he's town, if so what? Anything he's done this game that you think makes sense as mafia, if so what?

[Regfan]

Also Cabd, I really need more from you here dude. I replaced in largely to attempt to gamesolve with you, understand you being busy with work but if you're not at work now which I doubt you are then can you spend a little time letting me know if you think my town read on Micc is misplaced.

[Regfan]

Right now my gut legit says "vote zito"

If you had to attribute %'s to Zito/Hopkirk/Micc being scum (ie. 20/40/40 or 30/30/40) what do you think you're at?

[Regfan]

@Cabd

- I'm closer to 55/35/10 right now I think? Maybe 50/40/10?

Can you quote a few posts of Hopkirk you've liked/think are townish for me? Perhaps do the same with Zito if there's any there you like.

[Regfan]

opkirk's day 1 push on NSG makes me hesitate a little because I didn't think anything she regarding pushing Cabd was worthy of a scum read, but I absolutely did agree with the part about her vote on me being bad. Hopkirk's lack of interest in NSG day 2 is the real red flag tho.

Actually this is something I'd really really like Hopkirk to talk about a bit more, remember him mentioning the pull back on her was due to him rereading and recognising he typically mis-tunnels players like that but I'd like to know what specifically pointed to him that he might be wrong on the slot and if he'd gotten to town on the slot during the night phase why he didn't try and dissuade the wagon on her a little more since that's not a great look now.

[Regfan]

The higher % being Zito at the moment, there's a few small things in Hopkirks posts on the last page that I kind of liked, looking to see if you've seen/agree with it.

[Regfan]

Yeah those two quotes you pulled are both things I liked of his too as well as this;

Currently my thoughts (most likely scum) are BTD>UC>Cheeky, but I haven't looked at interactions yet.

Also just realized I could have done these over the night in this setup.

[Regfan]

Few of those links at the end don't work but I opened up the posts manually. Agree with most of those points?

I think I'm at a weird spot where I'm fairly happy calling Micc town so am trying to sort Hopkirk v PZ and have more things that point towards Hopkirk being town than PZ but also have more things I think make sense with Hopkirk being mafia than PZ so it's left me far from confident making the call yet.

[Regfan]

I'll be reading the above few posts in more detail later tonight but really like Post 1132 a lot.

I may be alone in this but I'm really hoping PZ doesn't actually have to get replaced here, not sure how fair it'd be for his replacement to come here with them likely getting lynched regardless of their alignment and being completely unable to answer any of the questions that PZ would about the slots play.

[Regfan]

Finished reading Hopkirks recent posts and kind of like them? I disagree with a few things he's said but I can follow his thought process there a lot.

Maybe 60/30/10 now for PZ/Hopkirk/Micc?

@NSG & BTD

- Where's your head at right now?

[Regfan]

Realistically this games only got ~72 hours left in it, if you want to do a reread and share your thoughts I'm sure it'll be appreciated from more people than just myself.

Alternatively I'll just take 2-3 lines on why you think it's PZ over the others here.

[Regfan]

Day 5 will end in 4 days, 22 hours, 55 minutes.

^
Approaching the point where people with votes should start contemplating using them, as long as Cabd holds his fear of a blitz is impossible with 4 alive and 3 required to lynch.

[Regfan]

Yeah it's a weird spot where I really need some more from that slot to solidify my reads but I don't really think it's super fair to have someone replace in to get lynched ~70% of the time.

I'm just praying he turns up before this becomes a thing.

[Regfan]

@Zito -

If your'e confident that Micc is town can you put forward some reasoning behind what makes Hopkirk scum here please? Because "PoE Hopkirk is mafia since I think Micc is town" doesn't do a lot for me. I completely agree with the Micc read ftr, it's just a case of me trying to solve between Hopkirk/Yourself.

[Regfan]

From your position if Miccs town then Hopkirk is mafia, you need to sell me on him being mafia here since I'm deciding between the two of you.

It's not a case of me asking you specific questions but more a case of if you're town you needing to convince us that he's scum, so please do.

[Regfan]

The day now ends in under 4 days, people

really

should start throwing votes down.

Running this down to the deadline when we need all 3 votes (No one will or should selfvote) to lynch a player is a bad idea.

[Regfan]

Maybe like 68/27/5 or something?

Think some of Miccs recent posts reduces the odds he's mafia even more and I've not really been a huge fan of PZ's re-entrance into the thread. Feel like if I'm town in his position knowing there's a decent chance I get ML'ed and fmpov I know that Hopkirk is mafia (Which is what would be the case with his strong Micc!Town read) then I'm probably doing something to try and point this out? His response to me of wanting to ask him specifics rather than 'something vague' feels very weird there if I'm trying to put myself in his shoes if he's town.

[Regfan]

Has yours changed, what are you at now?

[Regfan]

Anything I can do to increase your confidence here?

Hoping a decision can be reached in 48-72 hours at latest

[Regfan]

Ah, that makes more sense than you still being at 50/30/20

/

40/40/20.

It's totally going to end up being Micc and make us look like fools but yeah, I'm p happy for Micc/Hopkirk to throw their votes down on PZ if they still think he's scum in their next post, same goes with Zito voting Hopkirk. Really zero reason votes should be held by anyone that's not Cabd at this stage.

[Regfan]

Vote: Papa Zito

[Regfan]

I've gone into detail on why I think bussing is advantageous for scum in this setup (no investigations, no "why haven't you been shot", mslynch wise it's probable mafia still need the same number of mslynches) so you pushing Chip is far from clearing there.

I've also gone into detail about your point C in Hopkirk in that he'd voted elsewhere while scum reading Chip up until that wagon, in fact I discussed that with you and you...also argued with me about it rather than agreed that it wasn't a good look for him.

So like if you're town here you should be trying to convince people to vote Hopkirk / make us think you're town. I've seen analysis and thought process from both of them today, I haven't from you an I'd like to.

[Regfan]

That's fine but if you've done a reread and wagon analysis / got thoughts from that I think people here would appreciate seeing some of those? Like surely if you reread there's...more reasons that pointed you to Hopkirk being scum too, what were they?

[Regfan]

@PZ - I can look at that and somewhat understand why

you

are voting Hopkirk here, that's not where I've got an issue with at all since I think if you're town you're voting correctly. It just doesn't do too much to convince me that it's Hopkirk over yourself, I've touched on why I think your push on Chip isn't necessarily something to rule you out on. I agree that Hopkirks lack of vote on Chip until the wagon isn't a good look and is certainly a scum tell here, that said it's not a strong enough point alone to lynch him based on for me so unless you've got

more

than that I'm unlikely to try and get votes moved.

@Cabd - I'd be mostly okay with you hammering when Miccs ready / if you're still feeling the scum read on PZ here unless he brings up something else?

[Regfan]

I'm at work so I can't go into anything in detail or grab links for them but in short at least for me it's;

-> Disliking a lot of SS's reads progressions and thoughts posted inside the thread, in particular really find his Chip read hard to understand and find his treatment of Micc v how he was interacting with Micc to feel contradictory, feel if he'd had Micc as low in his list he'd have spent less time reaching out to him trying to get him to join him on another wagon and instead questioned him more. I also disliked his interaction with Cheeky in regards to their read on Cabd, both prior and post claim from Cabd. The more I look at his ISO the more problems I have with it.

-> Finding the interactions between PZ/Chip particularly on the Chip end to make sense as partners moreso than any other pairing here; feel he interacts and treats you rather differently than Micc for instance and think there's a few specific interactions that feel like scum theatre, the whole "You're scumming up a slot that SS did well as town for" would make sense as a thing if SS was his partner and he felt you were ruining the slots position. There's more depth to this than that but again not the place I can go into it nor do I feel super compelled to.

-> Finding your play and reads post D1 for the most part to feel fairly lackluster and seeing plenty of scum motivation behind that in that you're allowing town to just continue mslynching each other and getting yourself deep in the game due to it. I don't see a lot of actual deep assessment of players alignments D2/D3/D4, I dislike how level 1 your analysis of Cheekys play and your scum read on her was when you explained it. I don't see you attempting to gamesolve today in the same manner I think Micc and to a slightly lesser degree Hopkirk are. I found your "I'll do VCA" typet hing as an attempt to follow on busywork type things and the lack of follow through on that combined with your re-entrance to the thread after a huge break just don't seem like town thinking about the game or trying to get mafia lynched much to me.

[Regfan]

My thoughts on this game right now;

Spoiler:

[Regfan]

Nodding along with most of Hopkirks post above, find Zitos "Everything other than D1 isn't relevant" type stance a bit of a cop out, sure there's the argument there's some strong information to be found there but I think arguments can be made for people to be town/scum during the other days and the attempt to narrow it down to "Focus on this one action" is scum knowing they're probably losing trying to limit work into the game and focus on something they look better from. At least that's how I'm reading it, do apologise if I'm wrong but I'm preeeetty happy for people to throw votes down and see the result.

ftr, I dislike the idea of running things too tight to the deadline in a mafia game. I think the closer it is to the EOD the more power mafia get inside a game, a stronger thing when there's multiple mafia alive, yes. But in this scenario all mafia have to do is avoid themselves getting lynched and they win. That means if they drop down something that convinces just one town player that they might be wrong on them upon EOD when there's not a lot of time to actually think through what they've posted or discuss it then it ends up with a real tough quick decision that'll need to be made which often leads to mistakes.

If we're going to prolong the day more people should be asking questions, posting thoughts, doing

something

with the time.

[Regfan]

You can't condemn Spacey for townreading Chip and then condemn me for scumreading him. Are you insane. Clearly I disagreed with him on a number of points, which is why I went in a completely different direction.

Uhhhhh, none of this is what I'm saying at all and is one of the biggest misreps I've seen? I don't think you pushing Chip is something that makes you mafia at all, I merely don't think ruling out someone for bussing is a good idea and thus aren't trying to read too much into the push. My issue with SS was less so that he town read Chip and more that he did it in a "I have this reasoning that makes sense for Chip being town but doesn't really relate all that well so it's weakened" and then he just continued saying that while having Chip in his town reads.

[Regfan]

I don't understand how you think Chip's reaction to my replacing in points to us being partners if you've actually read the game. Scum need mislynch options and when I replaced in I wasn't one of them, nobody was pressuring my slot or really had at all up to that point. I was in 0 danger of being lynched. Chip's reaction to my replacement was to try undermining the townread Space had gained. That's not something you do to a partner who's in a good position.

You're misunderstanding what I'm saying here again. I'm not talking about his reaction towards your vote on him or him voting you or anything like that.

I'm talking about casual interactions that occurred between the two of you earlier in the day phase.

/shrug

[Regfan]

1. I'm not in control of this town. I cannot force their votes. Saying I'm "allowing town to just continue mislynching" is putting way too much responsibility on one player and ONCE AGAIN points to how you've completely not read the game in context. The game was on autopilot D2-4 and putting that solely on me is asinine.
2. I have gamesolved and presented the solution to the game in the easiest possible format I could think of twice. Here's what I guess is a revelation to you: Post count/word count are not alignment indicative.
3. I did the VCA. I didn't post it here because you keep calling it busywork and apparently putting effort into the game in a way that isn't Regfan Approved means I'm scum. Now you condemn me for not posting it? Hello?
4. I'm not going to apologize for enjoying a holiday with my family. This game does not take precedence over my personal life. Someday I'll play a game and not have players attempt to make me feel bad for having a life outside of the Internet, but today is not that day.
5. How the fuck am I not thinking about the game when I've gone through the effort to wade through the bullshit and distill it to its core? "You're not playing the way I want you to" does not mean I'm scum ffs.

1. Sure, you're not, that's fine. But I see a lot more from both Micc & Hopkirk in that period re; stating reads/looking at other players etc than yourself.
2/5. The problem for me is that you've not posted much of that 'gamesolve' in the thread, I can't see it, can't follow it, makes it hard to town read. Don't need walls of thoughts or reads, just

some

thoughts or reads shown. Need it to read you, need it to see if I agree with your reads.
3. Uh, you said you'd do VCA as you had plenty of time, I said fine. You didn't post it sure, but you also didn't do anything else in that time in thread?
4. No problem with you having time away from the game, pretty healthy too (Hope you enjoyed your holiday fwiw), I just found your re-entrance underwhelming.

[Regfan]

I'm referring to things like this, I'm reading it as something that I can see being W/W. If it's not well sorry? But I don't think he interacts with others similarly.

The Magic Chip Formula.

Do you want to know how I derived it? I looked at the activity table and noticed I'm the most prolific poster. Since from my own pov at keast I'm also townest, i realised that there is a perfect correlation there. Then i extrapolated to everyone else.

So yes, let's chat. We'll both become towner as we go along. And not to be rude or anything, but i feel you kind of owe it to SS to town it up a bit...

[Regfan]

Look I don't have a vote here, Cabd and Micc do. If you're town work on convincing them why Hopkirk is mafia rather than you being town. I've got to go now anyway.

[Regfan]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Depends how confident you are?

I've not seen anywhere near enough from PZ to make me want to lynch Hopkirk here over him, his point about Hopkirks trajectory on Chip certainly isn't a great look for Hopkirk but the point alone doesn't override the concerns I've got with PZ's slot and without PZ bringing up more on Hopkirk I don't see my mind changing. The manner Miccs unvote/revoted has sort of worried me in that it's the smooth type of way I think I'd be playing the situation as scum when it's possible to go to another day upon a mslynch. If this is something that's on someone elses mind we can discuss this before a hammers dropped I guess but that said it's far from enough to consider seriously revisiting him and if he's scum he's probably well and truly deserved the win.

[Regfan]

Yeah, that's fair. I'm just thinking if I'm in his shoes and mafia and think I'm in a good position for today but know that there's a chance (Even if it's a small one) that this goes another day with correct saves, I'm probably unvoting and playing this "Want to make sure" card and then revoting just like he did. I probably also do the same thing as town I guess? So it's not a huge thing?

@Micc - You unvoted saying you wanted to take another look at the game, what'd you actually reread and what pushed you to be confident enough to revote? Got any thoughts on PZ's recent stuff or Hopkirks?

[Regfan]

Haha, fair enough. Can't blame me for wanting to just reaffirm that you're not snowing me.

Yeah, I'm fine with a hammer if you're still comfortable with it being PZ.

[Regfan]

I haven't actually checked my PM, maybe it's me?