Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[LicketyQuickety]

I am starting to think you are Scum actually. Reason being is that your read(s) (at least on me) seem to come from something based on my stances and change on a whim, rather than any deductive thought. Regardless of if you can case me (or others for that matter) is really of no consequence. What I am looking at is how your reads are almost by definition changing based on the reads of others without looking at the reasoning behind those reads from those players. I don't see a Town motivation for this considering it occupies manipulation as opposed to an unbiased presentation.

They change by my feeling and by your actions, not reads. You stating I am scum reading you for not liking your read is an obvious misrepresentation. Your tone when addressing me here is much different then: #2442 or this: #2666. It makes me wonder why you take on that tone when I'm bringing up a concern. You bring up 'why you do things as town' yet you still have not answered my #1790. Compare the scum motivation and town motivation and explain why you think I don't have town motivation for what I'm doing, and then I'll explain to you the town motivation. I also am wondering why you didn't respond to my #2350. I'm fine with your Shea read. If you presented a serious case like you are doing so in your 2689, I'd look into it. I didn't get your push in those pages when I voted you, it seemed like a distraction rather then a push to wagon Shea. Also another thing to note that is you always omgus me. Why do you always omgus me?

I don't think you understand what I was saying because you in no way answered what I was saying, at all.

[Ranmaru]

Because Ranmaru is obvtown for one. I think it's a pattern you see often with inactive but relatively competent scum - they try to fill their few posts with attempts to look town, so Marquisscum would absolutely do the classic vote against the grain here (Marquistown could also do it, sure, but it's not exactly likely.)

Would you say Marquis is a competent player? I don't see how comparing a different player to Marquis is really going to sell me on your read on Marquis. Have you looked into Marquis's meta? Now I have looked at your games (especially your town games), I think it is different. Can you explain why that is? Have you thought about my #2352, what do you think about it? Also, why do you think Llama was killed? In reference to your Shea read, what does him being very 'Sheaeay' mean and why does it make you at ease with sheeping Llama? What do you think of Shea's interactions with LQ?

[Ranmaru]

Quick, then please, answer my questions, and then explain to me what you were trying to convey in a concise case.

[LicketyQuickety]

Quick, then please, answer my questions, and then explain to me what you were trying to convey in a concise case.

Nope, I'm done answering your pointless questions.

[Ranmaru]

Will you at least give a concise case on Shea?

[Lycanfire]

LQ what is your read on Ranmaru?

[LicketyQuickety]

LQ what is your read on Ranmaru?

Pending.

[Lycanfire]

[Ranmaru]

I think these are good posts to look at again while things are slow:

In some order, we are lynching Tchill, the entire Gamma wagon (CES AD LQ) and Eddie.
Scum are going to NK TSQ, Me and / or Postie, NSG / Ran
That's 5 lynches; we get 6. If we haven't won the game with those 5, the people still alive at that point can reevaluate.
If somehow those 5 players are all town, then well played scum. Team would have to be like Marquis Postie NSG or something.
In fairness, NSG scum is more plausible than I was thinking; her ISO is essentially just some reads and reasons.
NSG mostly works on Eddie and CES teams and such though.

The lylo that would leave is:
Marquis
Dunnstral
Lycan
Davsto
Gamma

Give whoever you lynch the day before lylo (CES if he makes it that far) the right to pick the lylo lynch if they flip town. Otherwise elect somebody to control all the lylo votes.
Town MUST all 3 get it right, if game goes to lylo, so they need some preexisting mechanism to agree and stack their votes or else scum have a 90% chance of winning in 2/3 lylo.
And once again, do not assume someone who lacks a good possible buddy must be town. I was universally scumread in Whiteflag 1 and won as scum because Mith distanced from me successfully and it looked like nobody could be my partner.

I can see LQ flipping town. I can see AD flipping town, maybe. I can see Tchill flipping town if all the scum are on the gamma wagon.
CES I can't really see flipping town here, but I'm also too lazy and not reliable enough at reading him to try to lynch him D1. If alive in lylo, all votes go on him please.
Eddie is probably where my next big timechunk of reading should go.

Put simply I want to set things up D1 to ensure a town win, so I am thinking a few moves ahead. I don't have a very long shelf life as town.
Your post essentially says "I find it annoying that you're thinking far ahead." Which offers even less value than my post
Lynch math - 15 -> 13 -> 11 -> 9 -> 7 -> 5 = 5 lynches; if we've hit scum with those 5 we get an additional lynch.

I think I'm voting town.
VOTE: Tchill
Just do Tchill, when it flips red do CES.
Do AD or maybe LQ if game isn't over by then.

Based on what?
Nightkills go on people who are good at identifying scum and are never going to get lynched.
TSQ is playing well and obviously never getting lynched. If he's scum we'll just have to lynch his buddies.
I'm never getting lynched because I'm town, though if scum want to leave me alive to lylo, letting a player with my history of lynch control and lynch accuracy alive through 5 days, and I fail to win it by then, I will accept my own autolynch in lylo because I'll deserve it.
NSG and Ran and Postie are universal or near universal townreads.

Lynches go to people who are not obvtown or people who are scummy.
There are decent to very good reasons not to lynch Gamma Dunn Lycan Davsto and Marquis, but they aren't universal townreads either so they prob won't eat nightkills.
LQ Eddie Tchill CES AD are all widely scumread players (to varying degrees), for good reason. It's not hard to have a decent guess of where things are going.
Am I getting ahead of myself, sure. Am I really helping by posting this, maybe? I tend to just let my thoughts out in the thread a lot. It can be a little spammy sometimes unfortunately but I don't think there are many players who get as cosmically obvtown as I do so it's worth it to me.

[Ranmaru]

This one too:

CES is rarely particularly townie looking unless he lynches scum.
He's pretty good at not getting lynched though; dangerous scum player.
Often as town he will do enough dmg or look threatening enough to get himself NKed.
My preferred solution is to let him play a few game days but if town isn't winning before lylo he is probably scum.
I generally advocate lynching the player who had no business still being alive in lylo.

AD who is the third scum with TChill and CES if not you? Marquis maybe? He isn't particularly town I suppose.

[Ranmaru]

I do like the idea that we should elect our pick for lylo vote controller. We should proceed like this:

Elect: Gamma

That's my pick. He's currently my strongest town read. Lycanfire is a good pick too.

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: Come in here and talk reads with me. Also read the above posts, and tell me what you think.

Action Dan

: Where are you at with the read? Talk to me about the major wagons.

[northsidegal]

Want to hear from Gamma, TSQ and Dan. TSQ especially I think, can't let him lurk this part of the game out right now.

[northsidegal]

I'm not going to switch again. Join me.

I'm actually considering it
I'll look over CES again and maybe Marq too

Did you get around to doing this? What came of it?

Incorrect question. You should be asking instead, why wouldn't Scum bus Marquis?

• It puts them at one lynch away from an instant loss, a significantly disadvantaged position that they don't need to put themselves in.
  
• If marquis is scum, there are other town lynches would be equally as easy to push as the marquis wagon (and wouldn't be on a scumbuddy).
  
• Nobody gains significant towncred from a scum marquis flip given that he's barely around to provide any interactions and the number of people willing to scumread him.

Plenty scumread him, but it can be read into what is done with that read

it certainly can be, and i think from what i

have

read into of that, it indicates that he's town. did you come to a different conclusion based on the number of people willing to scumread him?

[Ranmaru]

I think you still have a CES post you said you were making. I'd like to see that too. Also, I still want you to explain your Shea and LQ reads. In fact I want a full reads list from you as well. (When you have the time)

[northsidegal]

those are posts that my team specifically discussed in our team private thread as things that we couldn't forget about, definitely think everyone else should be keeping them in mind as well.

mathdino is chatting me right now, he wants me to say a few things:
he fundamentally agrees with llamarble's posts and thinks that cogito ergo sum using them them to defend tsq is disingenuous when llamarble's opinion was basically "if he's scum lynch his buddies".
the way that eddie cane views the game is pretty much exactly how he's viewing the game
he says that if you want one, ran, he can give a readslist from him.


pedit – i'll probably make a full readslists sometime, definitely before the day ends.

[Ranmaru]

Yes I'd like a reads list from him as well please.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nsg, do you agree with Mathdino's points? Because I really don't think it's that interesting to random points from someone who's only half-read the game and isn't that invested - e.g. 'marble unquestionably had Shea as his top town read and it took me like 20 seconds to find an explicit example of 'marble calling him a supertown; Mathdino's summary of affairs is very misleading.

[quote=Ranmaru]Would you say Marquis is a competent player? I don't see how comparing a different player to Marquis is really going to sell me on your read on Marquis. Have you looked into Marquis's meta? Now I have looked at your games (especially your town games), I think it is different. Can you explain why that is? Have you thought about my #2352, what do you think about it? Also, why do you think Llama was killed? In reference to your Shea read, what does him being very 'Sheaeay' mean and why does it make you at ease with sheeping Llama? What do you think of Shea's interactions with LQ?[/quote]
Marquis and I have been around for ages, so he's definitely competent (albeit probably rusty) and I haven't seen much reason to meta him (besides the more concrete question of whether he would do the representative nonsense at the start of the game as scum); I think the Tbone comparison absolutely holds up - both my suspicion there and my suspicion are built on a particular scum profile and not on any behavioural things specific to either Tbone or Marquis - it's definitely one of the reasons I feel as confident on Marquis as I do, knowing that this specific approach already picked out a scum for me in a 2:14 game.

I'm just on a phone so I'm just focusing on the "Sheaey" question: I just meant that Shea is very much like the "out-of-game" Shea that I'm familiar with and that by extension 'marble, who knows Shea in real life, must be very familiar with. That seems like perfect conditions for 'marble to read Shea in.

[Ranmaru]

How are you feeling about Action Dan right now? What do you think of his vote on Dunn?

[Ranmaru]

NSG

: I want your reads list tomorrow. I'm going to make one soon as well. Now, I want yours first, not your team mates. You said that you are in control, show me with your reads list.

[Ranmaru]

I'll go read up

? And?

[ActionDan]

Aright this what I'm thinking.

Firstly, Dunnstral should be the lynch. If for nothing else than for someone that constantly whines that other people don't have cases on him, it's not like he's provided any particular case on Marquis, or anyone else today aside from this:

UNVOTE: Marquis

I'll take another look - you need to talk to me about why you're voting me right now because it looks like you're just trying to get a wagon going and it irks me, I don't make much sense in that team imo

which I think is a tactic that is a crude defense defense mechanism and nothing more.

In his readslist

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier

Cogito ergo Sum

and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null

northsidegal

,

actiondan

lean scum

Marquis

is scum

the bolded are the people that have professed a strong scum read on him and I don't think it's coincidence that they occupy the scummy slots + a null. Why is NSG a lean scum otherwise? what separates me and TSQ to Dunnstral?

---

Regarding Marquis, these last strings of posts gave me deja vu in that I don't find anything in them convincing. If he really thought Ran was the secret scumlord everyone is missing, than I feel like these types of posts should have come earlier instead of a rather tepid vote and than nothing after until he's in danger of a lynch.

---

Katsuki chimed in recently and said that he thought CES was scumposting. But he said he looked at the thread <1min so I have no idea which posts gave him that impression or why, and he hasn't been back to answer.

I don't really see it still but in CES's comments about his read on me he said that he'd have liked to see more about the townread I gave Eddie. I have to ask, did you not agree with it? originally it was because I'd never think Eddie would take a scum PM as long as his team had any town PMs, which is why I thought there was 99.9% chance eddie was town coming into the game. But considering your vote D2, I highly doubt I'd have changed your mind and you were cognizant of it, it seems. So why the need to reiterate it to you? would that have made you unvote Eddie?

---

LQ asked my thoughts on NSG, and she's a never lynch option. I've never seen a NSG post I disliked this game + the Postie kill implies NSG is town when D2 people thought she was shaky (as apparently skirt skirt agrees with [as does chess kid]).

Speaking of Chesskid wants me to lynch Marquis. Kagami says she doesn't know who is scum but hopes I choose correctly and Smocaine doesn't exist

[Ranmaru]

Have you ever considered re-evaluating? Why have your reads remained static? What is your updated read on LQ?

[ActionDan]

I can actually give you guys an idea now, I think LQ, Gamma, are town
Ranmaru next tier
Cogito ergo Sum and TSQ, davsto, lycanfire are all null
northsidegal, actiondan lean scum
Marquis is scum

UNVOTE: Marquis

I'll take another look - you need to talk to me about why you're voting me right now because it looks like you're just trying to get a wagon going and it irks me, I don't make much sense in that team imo

why should I reevaluate? I've gone over the same posts from Dunnstral and Marquis and CES plenty of times, and others besides. none of them have flipped. I'm unsure what you'd want me to reevaluate and based on what. I will forever admit that I ought to simply "evaluate" Gamma, because I don't have the clear read there, but otherwise I have a pretty good idea of everyone else.

I still think LQ is town. Everytime there's some heated back and forth (with shea e.g.) the read gets a little fuzzy but then there's generally some (imo) :good posting: a bit later to reaffirm it. If you want I can dig up a couple.

[ActionDan]

the quote fairy strikes again