Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[MaxwellPuckett]

The end of the third day. The weary townspeople (who were perhaps getting tired of all the death) watched drmyshottyizsik get carried up the wooden structure. His struggling had gotten to the point that one of the black-cloaked figures had knocked him out with a clean chop to the back of the neck. The ritual from there went laughably quickly.

Rope tied, unconscious body held up, floor removed, and-

"drmyshottyizsik has been lynched. He was a

Mafia Goon

. Congratulations."

A few of the villagers clapped and cheered, one even brave enough to let out a whoop, accompanied by a fist in the air. A glare from one of the dark-suited figures standing on the structure was enough to have that particular one shrinking back, half-embarrassed and half-terrified.

His fellow clapped him on the back and lead him back to their shared dwelling, laughing lowly. When out of sight of the crowd, the light smile turned into a grimace. Only one left.

Day 3 has ended. Night 3 will run its course in (expired on 2016-04-10 23:26:25). Send in your actions!

[MaxwellPuckett]

The morning's dawn was foggy and damp, a chill seeping into the bones of the villagers who reluctantly made their way to the square that morning. As if the cold was emanating from the corpse, the temperature seemed to drop as they approached, dipping to freezing levels once they were all finally gathered. Clutching their light jackets to their bodies, the townspeople huddled together, ignoring or simply not caring about the knowledge that one of them was responsible for the gruesome sight before them.

"Lowell has been killed. He was a

Town Cop

."

Lowell's body, curled in on itself, fingers stiff and hair covered in frost, looked like it had spent the night on a mountain, instead of in the town square. With no visible wounds, the cause of death was obvious, if puzzling. Only moments were allowed for wondering, however, as soon Lowell's body was whisked away to that hidden graveyard, somewhere beneath the city. It was time to decide on the next one to die.

Day 4 starts now. It will end in (expired on 2016-04-25 00:06:48).

[Rhaegar]

Well, Almost and Kop are both confirmed town now.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Votecount 4.00

Not Voting:

Kop, Ranger, pisskop, Almost50, Rhaegar, Autti, duppin

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 4 will end in (expired on 2016-04-25 00:06:48).

[Ranger]

Well, Almost and Kop are both confirmed town now.

Indeed.

Also, three things should happen today.
One, if there was a N3 cop, they should claim their result. And it better be on one of {Autti, duppin}.
Two, if one of {Autti, duppin} is a doctor, they need to claim.

I have very good reasons for asking this.

Our lynch may depend on the answer. (Trust me on this.)
Three, depending on the two factors above, we lynch one of them. Most likely duppin.

[Autti]

Well, Almost and Kop are both confirmed town now.

And almost.

We have 3 confirmed townies

[Ranger]

Senile as someone at 50 would be, I'm pretty sure Almost50 doesn't qualify as being two different people.

[MaxwellPuckett]

I... I JUST realized that Almost's username refers to his age. Man I... how did it not even occur to me....

[Rhaegar]

(Trust me on this.)

I trust you on this. Was thinking of asking for something similar.

[Autti]

Senile as someone at 50 would be, I'm pretty sure Almost50 doesn't qualify as being two different people.

Woops.

Pisskop started the investigation train yeah? So he isn't technically confirmed but almost and kop are.

[duppin]

VOTE: Ranger

I'm curious, what was your plan? Your read on me yesterday made absolutely no sense at all, and unless you go all illuminati on me it should be fairly obvious that it is extremely unlikely that I am scum. I can't blame you, you replaced into a bad slot but I thought you misplayed it.

Just to clarify I don't have a guilty check on Ranger, but I'm pretty sure this is a scumplay. I still think it's unlikely that Autti is scum based on his interactions with Snarky during the end of day 1, although it is possible. I'd much rather lynch Ranger today and I do believe the game will end there.

[duppin]

In any case, game should be over.

Town:
Almost50 (confirmed town)
Kop ( confirmed town)
Pisskop (most likely town)

Lean town:
Rhaegar (unlikely to be scum based on day 1)

Null:
Autti (was pushing for a snarky lynch during the end of day 1)

Scum:
Ranger (Was somewhat PoE when KT was in the slot, but Ranger has been straight up scummy. Came up with forced and very weak reads. Is attempting to lead town now even though we're doing perfectly fine, since she pretty much has to I guess).

It's pretty much auto from here, I mean unless Rhaegar or pisskop is scum which I personally don't believe.

We lynch Ranger today, if she flips town we will (most likely) be down to 5 tomorrow.
Then we lynch Autti, if he flips town we will (most likely) be down to 3 the day after. If the game isn't over at that point you are free to lynch me if I am still alive but I guarantee the game will be over by then since I'm 99% sure the last scum is between Ranger and Autti and Ranger looks much worse at the moment.

[pisskop]

Nah ranger is town

[Rhaegar]

Taking a look back through the thread at ISOs. Starting with Autti

One thing that Snarky did that i find curios is that he re-posted the 2 quotes from KilltheStory, that Lowell had already done.

Instead of referencing the original pickup (Lowell) he did it himself for the sweet sweet town cred.

Minor point, but something i always look out for when someone else is trying to gain cred as opposed to just hunting.

I'm liking how Autti is drawing attention to Snarky here, it certainly doesn't appear like bussing.

This is town v town.

Scum are lurking laughing at you too spending all this time going at one another.

This post was made in regard to me and duppin going at it over my read (or lack thereof) on Shotty day 1. Again, I'm not seeing scum motivation in declaring two people to be town. Scum benefits from less people being considered town.

Guys.

Snarky is scum.

Got to L-1 made a forced reads list post to defend himself. Claims the single most valuable role in the setup, sees we aren't lynching him. Disappears again.

He is 100% scum.

Screw his gambit, just Lynch him.

I like this post a lot. Scum benefits from buying an additional day with a lynch on someone else, and at this point Autti had already made it clear that he was good with a KTS lynch.

@Autti:

So you do agree KTS behaviour is anti-town, and could be a standard scum tactic, but you still want to lynch SS over the. Tell me why?

Because I'm certain Snarky is scum. I'm not certain KTS is.

However, this post does bother me. Autti has no problem going after KTS through most of day 1, but hesitates with the lynch.

Believing the cop claims for now; we have 5 candidates to lynch.

Rheagar
Duppin
KT
Lowell
Shotty

Snarky has very little interactions with most of them, other than Shotty who he pushes quite a bit. I honestly think Shotty is a mislynch candidate.

I think we need to analyse the early wagon on shotty at the start of day 3.

That was quite strange seeing how we didn't have a guilty result it got to L-1 so quickly.

I'd bet scum helped that along the way.

Also by my count we have 5 roles revealed. 3 dead doctors and 2 claimed cops (correct?) thus at this point it's not possible to solve via a mass claim.

We should wait for the KT replacement at least before moving forward.

Shotty was a fairly obvious day 3 lynch candidate given the day one Snarky actions as well as his incredibly scummy day 2 play in regard to Snarky's fake guilty. This isn't a game where scum can win by heavily bussing. Scum deaths give the town plenty of time to rack up cop results and narrow down the lynch possibilities. I would lean toward shotty's scum partner trying to defend him at this point, simply because a shotty lynch puts scum in such a bad spot.

I also think the assertion he uses here (that snarky pushed shotty quite a bit) it in fact not true. There was a push during RVS, but it quickly died, even though snarky claimed to have a slight suspcious of shotty.

The fact that snarky wasn't pushing shotty hard was what led to both their lynches, not that he wasn't being pushed hard enough. This was a bad defense of shotty and it looks suspicious.

autti is a decent pressure-push tomorrow.

No I'm not. Please don't waste your time pushing me.

Ranger has the right idea of looking at the counter wagons, which I brought up earlier.

The day3 start wagon on shotty has to have scum on it given the pace of it, and the fact that shotty is town.

Ranger had a nice find on the almost counter wagon to Snarky.

Is duppin on both of those? I'm on a phone so it's a pita to find it

However, Autti's strong insistence that shotty is town (once the lynch is through) appears legit.

Conclusion:

There's some good, some bad. Maybe even enough for a lynch. The fact that auti was defending shotty, calling lowel scum, but not voting lowell is curious.

[duppin]

It's pretty much auto at this point, can we just get on with it?

I personally find Ranger more scummy simply because her reads yesterday made no sense in my opinion. Especially her case on me felt forced and felt like her trying to set something up. Obviously I am going to be a bit more biased, but I truly thought it was a really weak read and had a hard time seeing a town pursuing that at that point.

To me it felt like she was trying to make a case on me based on nothing. My play has been fine, my vote record is excellent, my reads have been great.
Sure you can try to consider a world where I bussed both of my teammates d1. I mean my biggest scumread all game was Shotty, who I tried to push on at the beginning of day 1, then later changed it to Sparky when he claimed and people began voting for KTS for no valid reason, where I tried to convince people vote with me. I also believe I was the first one to claim that I didn't believe Sparky's guilty check on pisskop (other than pisskop of course). Autti had already voted Snarky at this point, which is also one of the things that makes me trust him more than Ranger.
You should definitely consider it a possibility that I did bus them, but it's very unlikely and the way that Ranger tried to justify as this being obvious scum play made no sense at all.

.

[duppin]

Eh, Snarky* not Sparky.

[Rhaegar]

Sure you can try to consider a world where I bussed both of my teammates d1. I mean my biggest scumread all game was Shotty, who I tried to push on at the beginning of day 1, then later changed it to Sparky when he claimed and people began voting for KTS for no valid reason, where I tried to convince people vote with me.

Bussing shotty would be a fairly logical decision. It would have been much harder to defend him given the likelyhood he would have been investigated or lynched.

And you treated snarky with kid gloves up until the claim. It was pretty obvious that he almost certainly would be the day two Lynch, so scum wouldn't be losing much by bussing him either.

[MaxwellPuckett]

Votecount 4.01

Ranger [1]:

duppin

Not Voting:

Kop, Ranger, pisskop, Almost50, Rhaegar, Autti

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day 4 will end in (expired on 2016-04-25 00:06:48).

[Almost50]

I'm waiting on Ranger to show up and submit her latest analysis. I know for a fact she can see through it all and could probably pinpoint the remaining scum with a final read through. I've seen her do it before.

[Autti]

Would a mass claim make it solveable at this point?

[pisskop]

we arent doin massclaim. ever

this isnt a setup where we benefit from it

[Autti]

OK. Just checking.

Was thinking because there can be a maximum of each role. We would get a scenario were scum claiming would make it either too many docs or cops, thus narrowing down our investigation to the fake claimer in either the doc or cop pool (whichever has more claims than possible slots)

[Autti]

In response to Rheagar over me defending shotty.

I just didn't see him as that scummy. It's pretty simple, I honestly thought he was VI or just mislynch bait. I was sceptical to how fast the wagon had started because it was so early and to my mind we had no real evidence.

As for my mass claim theory.

At this point if we claim and have 5 cops and 6 docs we know the scum is fake claiming doc. And with the number of flips that will be narrowed down to 3 potential people (as we have confirmed dead docs).

Thus strategy will work for any 4/6 5/5 6/4 makeup.

I'm not sure why pisskop is against this, I cannot see a problem.

Also at this point role reveal means little as the last scum is better of killing the confirmed townies each night as we obviously won't Lynch those in lylo. Thus meaning role claims won't hurt the town.

[Ranger]

I'm curious, what was your plan?

My plan yesterday was get caught up in the game before the mod posted the flip and to identify the scum for future reference, given as how there had already been a lynch.

My plan today? Lynch said scum.

VOTE: duppin.

We have neither a doctor claim nor an N3 cop claim, and of {duppin, Autti}, I find duppin more likely to be scum.

Conclusion: There's some good, some bad. Maybe even enough for a lynch.

Your analysis on Autti is my own! Possible town, possible scum, could be lynched.

But my read on duppin is that he's

probable

scum, only remotely-possible town, and

should

be lynched.

I'm waiting on Ranger to show up and submit her latest analysis. I know for a fact she can see through it all and could probably pinpoint the remaining scum with a final read through. I've seen her do it before.

My analysis is that, if my theory is correct, Rhaegar is 100% confirmed town. Sure, Rhaegar's town by play, but I actually think by Rhaegar's town by role, assuming my theory holds true. I would prefer not to explain why because, as pisskop says, scum benefit more from claiming (or even speculating about) roles than town does.

That means, 100%, scum are within {Autti, duppin}.

I could be wrong about which of them it is, because both of them are

similar

, but of them, I think there is a much stronger case for duppin being scum. I'm a bit busy at the moment, so I can't actually compile the case right now, but if this is something you need me to actually do rather than simply taking my word for it, I can do it later when I'm not quite as busy.

[duppin]

I actually agree with Autti.

Ranger how about you explain exactly why I'm scum.