Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[pisskop]

Votecount 2.11

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kop

- (5) chilledtea, Ranger, xtoxm, Mad King Ashnard, Almost50

Aneninen

- (3) acryon, Burning Crystal, davesaz

Burning Crystal

- (1) Aneninen

xtoxm

- (1) kaintepes

Ranger

- (1) kop

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Not Voting

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With 11 Alive it takes 6 to Lynch!
Day 02 Deadline is (expired on 2016-03-21 11:30:00).

[Almost50]

Guys, I'm not feeling too confident in Kop's lynch. He doesn't strike me as anything scum would do in this situation. He's neither desperately defensive nor is he trying to counter or start another wagon. He's acting defeated distributing curses and creating WIFOM.

I'm sorry, but I'm much more comfortable with a KT lynch.

VOTE: KT

[Kop]

Pisskop you have xtom voting for me and KT.

[chilledtea]

Guys, I'm not feeling too confident in Kop's lynch. He doesn't strike me as anything scum would do in this situation. He's neither desperately defensive nor is he trying to counter or start another wagon. He's acting defeated distributing curses and creating WIFOM.

I'm sorry, but I'm much more comfortable with a KT lynch.

VOTE: KT

There is 20 hours remaining. This will lead to no lynch.

[Almost50]

You want a lynch? Let's lynch KT. If he's not scum you can lynch me next. I'm not lynching "just to get a lynch", and I'm not feeling scum in Kop's most recent posts.

[chilledtea]

Except I am considering you town.

I also agree with xtoxm that he agreed to not being too good at scumhunting. That is fake. How can he say he is not that good at scumhunting?? You realize that if he was town he would be in uninformed majority, thereby unable to know whether he is good or bad unless he actually caught a scum?

He knows that what I meant by not good at scumhunting it meant casual lurking. When it came to lynching BC he was ready, wasn't he? If he is not "good" at scumhunting, how would he reach that conclusion?

He has no defense to this accusation. As scum, it doesn't affect his morale at all if he accepts that he has not been scumhunting. But as town, he wouldn't be saying that because he would always doubt either me, or someone else making that accusation. He would wonder whether it is scum making that accusation. He would wonder what the hell chilledtea has done to accuse me of this when chilledtea himself ran a lynch of texcat.

Almost, I am so sure he is scum. I am willing to go for his lynch instead of KT. I think his lack of defensiveness is probably because that is one way for him to escape a lynch.

[Mad King Ashnard]

I think Kop is more likely than not scum.

Not a super strong read but I'm happy with this lynch, especially as a compromise vote.

[Almost50]

Even if I do come back to the Kop Wagon there seems to be a lack of interest from others. Anen? dave?? BC??? acryon????

OK, nvm. But you do realize if Kop flips town it will be you for the auto-lynch. Right, chilled?? You started this wagon just as you were the one behind the texcat wagon. And BOTH counter wagons to ones on BC.

Alright then..

VOTE: Kop

[Burning Crystal]

Even if I do come back to the Kop Wagon there seems to be a lack of interest from others. Anen? dave?? BC??? acryon????

OK, nvm. But you do realize if Kop flips town it will be you for the auto-lynch. Right, chilled?? You started this wagon just as you were the one behind the texcat wagon. And BOTH counter wagons to ones on BC.

Alright then..

VOTE: Kop

So much *facepalm* here.

The process each day has been, Aneninen wagon. BC wagon. Kop basically refuses to see Aneninen as scum and knows I'm town and starts a third wagon which goes to lynch because the same people who vote me want the third wagon.

Yeah, excuse me while you blame the leader for that. *shrug*

~Titus

[Burning Crystal]

*Kop = chilledtea

[Mad King Ashnard]

Hey Titus, I'm not going to just follow you for no reason, especially when you're being the way you are.

persuade me.

[Burning Crystal]

*Ok I'm going to suspend disbelief that your Anen's scum partner for a second. We're going to talk in abstract variables for a second, rather than labels to remove emotion.

1) If a wagon has largely confirmed town on it and doesn't take off, why do you think that is? In the abstract?

[Mad King Ashnard]

Neither scum nor the remaining townies are interested in the aforementioned wagon for various reasons.

[Burning Crystal]

Neither scum nor the remaining townies are interested in the aforementioned wagon for various reasons.

Now, if players immediately jump on and attack people sheeping confirmed town while largely ignoring the substance of said player's posts or engaging the conftown who pushed the wagon? What does that tell you?

[Mad King Ashnard]

Who are you referring to and what posts?

[Mad King Ashnard]

This is a really weird and indirect way to push a wagon, Titus.

[Burning Crystal]

Look, I'm wierd. You know I'm pushing the Anen wagon. It's what I'm trying to persuade you of.

I'm asking you in the abstract to remove emotion from the equation to get at how you think and force you to look at situations.

Please answer the question.

[Mad King Ashnard]

That's a really sketchy thing to say.

Mafia isn't that simple and you know it. Maybe he's scum

But in order to convince me of that you need to get through several layers of things preventing

1) Adenine is normally a slimy, leading git as scum. Like, you can palpably taste the icky manipulation of the gamestate and it makes you feel physically nauseous to read it.
Find instances of him misrepresenting things with scum intent and you'll have my interest. At this time, I've seen none of it except for one minor instance in a recent post but it doesn't outweigh my townread there.

2) I genuinely think that Kop is a reasonably good wagon here. It's close to deadline, there's enough votes, he's not fighting the lynch in a fairly scummy way, and I like most of the voters on the wagon. Why is Adenine worth doing over Kop today? Do you have an independent townread or scumread on Kop? if so, why?

3) I don't really townread you either. This 'back to basics' approach that you're taking here falls into the classic 'generalizing' scumtell whereby you're calling someone's behaviour or actions in general scummy as opposed to them themselves scummy. You've admitted that you're an emotional scumhunter, you know full well that I'm emotional; why do you think it would benefit either of us to remove our strongest skill from our skillset?
I mean yes, logically if those things were true and that's all that there was to the situation it could be seen as confirming him as scum. But both of us know full well that scum don't always make the easiest plays.
Perhaps they know that Adenine is town, see him as obvtown and feel like they'll get chastised for jumping on the wagon. Perhaps anything.

I don't see him as individually scum. No associatives: find scumminess in his play. Particularly look for 1).

[Burning Crystal]

1) I do feel like he's been a slimly leading git. Hence the comments about him OMGUSing everything in site. He just types POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOP or uses gifts to make melodrama out of those disagreeing.

2) Kop not fighting the lynch in a scummy way likely means he's town... :S Thus making him a bad lynch. Anen being scum makes him a good lynch. Kop is PoE would lynch if it avoided a no lynch but I wouldn't feel good about it. That's my read on him.

3) Again, you have been caught in a position where you don't want to actually be put in a position where you would be forced to say Anen is scum and abandon the exercise entirely. Then OMGUS me for suggesting it. If you had issue with me engaging in the abstract, you would have objected to the first question and not the second question.

I don't consider myself to be a highly emotional scumhunter, while I acknowledge emotions play a factor. Emotions are not the strongest part of my skillset at all.

[Mad King Ashnard]

I'm not OMGUSing you. I see clear holes in your play and have since D1 and have been very clear about them.

I will reread Adenine again.

[Mad King Ashnard]

Like I'm having serious issues taking the prospect of you being town here seriously which is colouring all of our interactions.

[davesaz]

18 hours left. I am available to hammer if we stay on this course. Willing to stick with Anen if enough are willing to go there.

If Kop is town it's a counter wagon to ensure we don't have either BC or Anen as the top wagon coming up to deadline. Can't tell for sure which one he'd be the CW to, but I still have Aneninen as more likely scum than BC. Not sure if scum are responsible for starting the wagon, or if they're the ones piling on to make it viable as a compromise. We'll find out a lot.

Entirely possible that Kop is indeed scum and some of us finally seeing BC as possible town is what got us here.

There is still a chance that BC is lying about the thing that makes me town read them. We'll see what happens...

[chilledtea]

Don't hammer. Let this discussion go through. I am very interested in it personally. Let MKA read through anen and lets see what he says.

[Almost50]

Sorry guys, but here's what I see: The voting patterns confirm a link between chilled & KT. I'm not sure who might be a 3rd member of that team (if we assume a 3-scum team with or w/o SK). BC could be the third one if we're in scenario 5 (they KNOW there's no 2nd kill, so they're just WIFOMing).

If this is the case they're going to kill davesaz tonight (I confirmed him not to be the PGO).

HOWEVER, it could still be someone else, like acryon for instance.

If we DO have an SK though, then BC could not be the 3rd member of that team, and she could not be the SK either (for reasons mentioned in 1321)

I'm at a complete loss if we assume scenario 12 (2 Mafia + 2WWs)

[Almost50]

The "links" I'm talking about is they park their votes on eachother for distancing, but once either gets voted by one or two other players they jump off the wagon. It started up e○7rly in the game with EE & KT voting eachother.