512: Bojack Horseman Season 2 (Over)

[Wingback]

Answer my question.

Not now. But when I make up my mind, I will. I've listed my concerns in my previous posts.

[sekai no ki]

It will take me a little while to wrap post tags around all the post numbers.

I don't really understand why you're scumreading us. Is it because our townread on your slot fell apart?

[Wingback]

Post it as is. I don't care. I want to see your behind-the-scenes work in raw form.

Your townread on me falling apart is part of a larger problem. Everyone that doubts you (me, TSO, Sthar8) are potential scum in your mind. Everyone that trusts you (Polar, Fire) are all but confirmed town to you. I don't need to explain why taking such stances is very advantageous for you as scum in the current situation.

[Polar Vortex]

Post it as is. I don't care. I want to see your behind-the-scenes work in raw form.

Your townread on me falling apart is part of a larger problem. Everyone that doubts you (me, TSO, Sthar8) are potential scum in your mind. Everyone that trusts you (Polar, Fire) are all but confirmed town to you. I don't need to explain why taking such stances is very advantageous for you as scum in the current situation.

I had that concern. I saw them kind of sucking up to us in the hydra, but I don't see the bsnefits when we already towm read them stongly?

[Wingback]

@ Sekai:

But you can take me through in exact detail how your townread on me fell apart and if it is convincing, I'll reconsider where I could be going wrong with you.

So far I have:

- Wingback didn't post towards the end of D1 (which is due to being busy irl. I didn't log onto MS at all that day)
- Wingback's reponse to someone being at L-1 is scummy (for which I've explained the town motive for)
- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

So, go through my D1 play. Tell me why you thought it was town in the past and why you think it is scummy now.

[Wingback]

Post it as is. I don't care. I want to see your behind-the-scenes work in raw form.

Your townread on me falling apart is part of a larger problem. Everyone that doubts you (me, TSO, Sthar8) are potential scum in your mind. Everyone that trusts you (Polar, Fire) are all but confirmed town to you. I don't need to explain why taking such stances is very advantageous for you as scum in the current situation.

I had that concern. I saw them kind of sucking up to us in the hydra, but I don't see the bsnefits when we already towm read them stongly?

In the hydra?

[Polar Vortex]

@ Sekai:

But you can take me through in exact detail how your townread on me fell apart and if it is convincing, I'll reconsider where I could be going wrong with you.

So far I have:

- Wingback didn't post towards the end of D1 (which is due to being busy irl. I didn't log onto MS at all that day)
- Wingback's reponse to someone being at L-1 is scummy (for which I've explained the town motive for)
- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

So, go through my D1 play. Tell me why you thought it was town in the past and why you think it is scummy now.

Strawman much? None of those points make sense and you know you're misinterpreting what they say.


Hmm, what's the hydra question? At least I have a strong read on sekai and IIRC Snow had ons too

[sekai no ki]

Spoiler: ffery's pbpa wall

Post 500 is where sthar8 put out a case on kaboose. It's an incredibly shallow, lazy, buzzwordy case

Post 516 is interesting. It was in response to my explaining firebringer scumreading players who gambit and any sort of lie. Sthar8 said that he feels the same way about gambits and lies. Then later claims he crumbed a fake claim with the piggy comments.

he unvoted next time he came into the game after kaboose's claim and picked metal sonic as his next target.

763 is his next real reads list. his content to fluff ratio is pretty high up to this point in the game.


So his trajectory to this point was scumreading us for Pie's early MS suspicion, backing off because of her reasons for not scumreading Firebringer. In 772 he asks ETL about me, specifically. ETL says "no feelings" then isos us and comes out of it with a probtown read in post 795- lots of stuff we said that she agreed with, especially re MS.

self-votes as a sort of joke about ETL scumreading him.

782 - comment about a push that he thinks scum should be making on him

In 856 he acknowledges ETL's iso of us with no comment whatsoever about the content or her conclusion. This looks huge to me.

The next nonfluff thing he does is the profiling thing with firebringer. I'm giving the benefit of the doubt in calling it nonfluff. he made no conclusions about how to work with firebringer for ETL, which was the ostensible reason for the profiling in the first place. Could be because I asked for the topic to be dropped, but there were several posts after the questions that didn't seem to go anywhere.

976 he asks us and wingback about PV (no scumhunting in the iso).

[post=Also]Also[/post] in 976 MS was a compromise lynch and he preferred PV.

977 - Polar Vortex calls Sthar8's vote an omgus. he calls the post a painful contortion.

986 when asked about his reads on us and etl he replied "reading is tech - BUT, he hadn't mentioned his read of us since he asked etl for her thoughts. We had a confrontation about the profiling questions, which was initiated by me. Otherwise he would have had no interaction at all with us for several pages and several visits to the thread.

And then in 987 he quotes himself from 200 pages back saying that he suspected us because he had no scumreads and we were more likely to look town as scum than most of the player list. (this is actually pretty funny, at least wrt to me). his last comments about his etl read were 20 or so posts back from this post. This is an incredibly static read given the reasoning for scumreading us and the complete lack of effort to figure us out by questioning/discussing the game with us.

In 990 he went after Polar Vortex for a hydra dissonance defense (noting this because he later does the same thing to us.

The interaction starting at 993 with polar vortex just feels like a massive discredit and doesn't address their concerns at all (which were well laid out and which I still agree with. It's a shame that the MS wagon distracted from some of this. :/

In 1016 he says he suspects us because we're not townreading him for his early series of posts (the pig thing presumably). This crumb didn't register with me at all, though I should by now playing at MS recognize that post heavy on the nonsense is probably a crumb. I learned mafia in an environment where nobody crumbed - we learned to read PR tells and to distinguiish them (hopefully) from scum tells. Anyway, I think the reason this fake crumb didn't register and MS's crumbs did was because MS was crumbing via shared experience - a game I modded.

1024 is some of his basis for scumreading MS - because MS voted PV before sthar8 did and MS would have realized that (a form of buddying). I really hate this reasoning btw. It made equal if not more sense as town working with a townread.

1074 reads like a threat - "stop doing X or I'll scumread you for it." Probably null? In some players it could be a mild towntell (I think I express things that way sometimes as town.

1077 - votes self claims he's neg utility. In the very next post he unvotes (wingback townreads him for this :/)

1094 - this post gave me weird vibes "if i had a partner i'd give more fucks". At the time, I wondered if he was 3rd party. This could be projecting, when I'm town, even though I don't know precisely who is on my team, I'm aware they are there and I'm looking for them with the intent to cooperate if possible. Maybe as town he sees himself as more of a lone wolf?


1338 sthar8 is basically saying that we're scum for not pursuing his lynch harder?

[sekai no ki]

@ Sekai:

But you can take me through in exact detail how your townread on me fell apart and if it is convincing, I'll reconsider where I could be going wrong with you.

So far I have:

- Wingback didn't post towards the end of D1 (which is due to being busy irl. I didn't log onto MS at all that day)
- Wingback's reponse to someone being at L-1 is scummy (for which I've explained the town motive for)
- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

So, go through my D1 play. Tell me why you thought it was town in the past and why you think it is scummy now.

I can do this for my townread on you after dinner tonight. Pieguy's trajectory probably isn't identical, though we've influenced each other's reads a lot.

[sekai no ki]

Post it as is. I don't care. I want to see your behind-the-scenes work in raw form.

Your townread on me falling apart is part of a larger problem. Everyone that doubts you (me, TSO, Sthar8) are potential scum in your mind. Everyone that trusts you (Polar, Fire) are all but confirmed town to you. I don't need to explain why taking such stances is very advantageous for you as scum in the current situation.

We've firmed up a leaning townread on TSO. I think I mentioned that a few days ago. If we wind up doing the same with you, then tomorrow will be hell if we don't lose outright today.

[Wingback]

Strawman much? None of those points make sense and you know you're misinterpreting what they say.

Actually they make perfect sense. What I want to know is why those points are weighted heavier than their previous points on me as town.

[Firebringer]

- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

That seems rather insulting.
How could you say that about Polar?

[Polar Vortex]

- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

That seems rather insulting.
How could you say that about Polar?

[Polar Vortex]

- Wingback is a competent player who can play beyond what Polar and Firebringer are capable of

That seems rather insulting.
How could you say that about Polar?

Well, sekai didn't acrually say this, just said wingback is data focused as opposed to us. Plus, sekai didn't use this point against wingback either?

[sthar8]

that PBPA is crap and I think you understand why it's crap.

Let's see a case.

[sekai no ki]

Why am I not even a tiny bit surprised that you discredit wholesale without dealing with an iota of the substance.

Oh right. Because that's par for the course.

I wanted to wait for pieguy to look at the final writeup before I posted it, but I feel like town's wheels are spinning here, and this will at least give you something to chew on and kick around. If this doesn't adequately represent her thoughts, she can add them tonight.

the strongest point for Sthar8 being scum is the way he forms (and doesn't pursue) his reads. This is exemplified by his read on us.

he had us as scum from very early day 1, based on pieguy's reaction to metal sonic's early game, backed off slightly because we agreed with him about Firebringer being low-hanging fruit, but never made the slightest effort to refine the read until he asked ETL for her opinion of us. She ISO'd us and said we were probtown. he flat out ignored this (he said he was at work at the time she posted it. And then...nothing - no questions to her, no questions to us. The read has been static. his other reads have followed a similar pattern.

his case on kaboose in post 500 was incredibly shallow, lazy and buzzword-filled.

In 763 he posts a reads list. It's interesting that he soft-defends Wingback here.

Looking at 955 and 957, where polar vortex put out the crux of their scumreaad on Sthar8, it comes off reasonable and logical. This is where Sthar8 threw out the irrelevancy of hydra dissonance to discredit them, rather than deal with their actual suspicions.

In 964 Sthar8 says he's reread PV's ISO and is considering a vote there....and never gets back to this.

As an aside, as I read through this part of the thread again, I felt pretty bad that our focus through all of this was mostly on sorting MS. In reread, we found that PV was on this stuff in the moment, while we didn't really focus on it until we were finally coming around to MS being town.

In 976 the parallel with PV to his trajectory on us continues. he asks us to talk to him about PV, claiming that he sees no legitimate scumhunting in their ISO. I'm going to leave that absurdity to sink in...they've provided a fuckton of content throughout the game, and certainly plenty of content prior to post 976. PV's posts on page 40 basically sum up our thoughts at that point in the thread as we reread the game and talked about it. We both found ourselves nodding along, and I felt like we'd let PV down by not being more in tune and backing them up, instead of where our heads were at during that point of the game.

Other stuff of note:

Pie feels like Sthar8 tried to pre-emptively discredit him with the comments that he expected Pie to be paranoid and misread him after the team mafia game.

After Sthar8 ignored ETL's reasons for thinking we're town, he never did engage her or try to work out why she was scumreading him.

And, he never justified his reasoning for scumreading MS. his initial willingness to vote MS was as a compromise lynch. Somehow from there he went to waiting for Pie's town-MS case. And he didn't engage that case, he voted MS, as though it were an implicit "your towncase is shit". his main justification since the vote/lynch was that claiming bulletproof was a classic scum tactic.

he fake-crumbed cop. he claimed to be negative utility on day 1 and not the worst mislynch if it came to that. MS claimed Tracker (after some bullshit, but still). Instead of taking stock and considering whether another lynch (like even his own) might be better for town in the circumstance, he put MS at L-1. Given the lack of reasoning for scumreading MS prior to this, it looks particularly bad to me, but I think overall it's still a weak point. Some players, no matter what their role and the situation consider a sacrifice lynch to be bad play.

Day 2, he's done no real scumhunting. he's claimed we're scum and left it at that.

I have a long pile of Day 1 PBPA that is summarized by this post. I'll be glad to post that in spoilers if anyone wants to look through it.

[sthar8]

i mean, you're not new. You know that pbpa is useless as an analytic tool.

[sekai no ki]

Which is why the wall itself isn't PBPA.

Why don't you address a few of those points? Why didn't you follow up with ETL's wall about us? Why didn't you work through her scumread of you?

Why did you follow a parallel trajectory of not-making-a-case with your scumreads of ETL or PV or MS?

[sekai no ki]

ftr the wall does pretty much cover my thoughts as well. i don't really have anything else to add except the timing of sthar's vote on us today

[Polar Vortex]

VOTE: sthar

[sekai no ki]

something i was thinking of is that, *if* we're right that it's sthar/Wingback and TSO is town, we need all four town players to vote sthar in order to lynch him

which is why it makes a lot of sense sthar would play this the way he did. he knows he won't get lynched as long as TSO won't vote him

and worst-case scenario, the game day goes to a nl and then the exact same scenario happens tomorrow except it's LYLO instead of MYLO and TSO is still guaranteed to misvote

that is probably what his scum strategy for this endgame is. which is why we need TSO to take a good hard look at what we're writing today and take a good hard look at how blatantly manipulative sthar's play this game day towards him has been (and no, their dynamic doesn't account for this - he voted us at the point he did explicitly _because_ TSO was frustrated and he was appealing to his emotional state, not because being familiar with someone causes you to place votes in MYLO in response to stuff that's going on with them).

i also have a hilarious theory about something in this game that i don't think means anything but i am bringing it up anyway just so i can come back and ask about it in postgame *if* we're correct about the scum team here.

[sekai no ki]

Ok, so some quick notes about our concerns about Wingback:

associatives with sthar8
his focus on who he wasn't scum with when sthar8 went to L-3. he seemed more interested in calling himself confirmed not scum with so-and-so than anything else going on at the time. It was this behavior that squicked me badly enough that I unvoted and did a reality check.

And finally, with our TSO read changed, PoE with a dollop of MS' concerns about him not doing anything town enough that a player of his obvious caliber couldn't fake it. I recognize the irony of this statement. But there are a dozen or so scum games of mine on this site that attest to where my skills and lacks as scum lie. And Snowstorm saw my most recent scum game - as a hydra, but he knows what contributions in that game were mine.

If I didn't feel so confident about Sthar8 being scum, I'd probably have put our vote on Wingback purely based on his behaviors right after Sthar8 hit L-3.

One more piece of data, re TSO: In a random look through some of his games we ran across this game, where he expressed some similar sentiment to here. It was a much longer game than this one, and he was considerably more invested, but it's a similar expression of frustration at effort made for a bad result. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p6233092

[Firebringer]

I really think WIngback is S8thar ally Sekai.

[sekai no ki]

So do we!

[AngryPidgeon]

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