New York 182 - Game Over

[Gorkington]

Oh and
VOTE: ZZZX
Birthday!
Party!
Woo!

[Antihero]

Still to me everything points to a multiball ....

well, there's the fact that the scum faction that HAS flipped doesn't have a specific name

[Antihero]

I can't keep varsoon's claims in line

i can and i'm barely paying attention

what's up w/ you?

[Antihero]

as long as it's not hated mechanics. amirite?

see: the latest development on normal mechanics re: double voters

just in case you need another kick to the balls

[Antihero]

taking gork's results w/ grain of salt, bee tee dubs

LOOK AT ME LOOK AT ME I'M DISCREDITING THE COP

[pisskop]

Still to me everything points to a multiball ....

well, there's the fact that the scum faction that HAS flipped doesn't have a specific name

1) werewolves would negate the need for specific names. Of course that implies that (a) the cop is half useless and (b) none of the wolfies have flipped, nor been too scummy.

2) Not likely. SK/3P for life.

[pisskop]

Im willing to lynch anyone whose name does not start and end with the letter 'p'

[pisskop]

And maybe a few others.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't really think ZZZX is scum from skimming through his ISO but i'm tired so i'll prob look at it properly after sleep

also unless i'm wrong in some assumptions i'm making about the setup, i'm probably not going to lynch any of gork's targets any time soon regardless of whether there's doubt about them - talk about this later in the game, if at all

[Flubbernugget]

mn i think is me whereas mm would be muffin man. yet another reason why mm and mn should not be used as abbreviations. What do you want Flubber?

Some scumhunting would be nice

[Antihero]

Still to me everything points to a multiball ....

well, there's the fact that the scum faction that HAS flipped doesn't have a specific name

1) werewolves would negate the need for specific names. Of course that implies that (a) the cop is half useless and (b) none of the wolfies have flipped, nor been too scummy.

2) Not likely. SK/3P for life.

i'm saying i agree w/ you

not to mention the fact oka is a really sk-ish kill

if i had to guess mafia probably knows who the sk is

[Varsoon]

We still have a huge list of players to thin through.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

Still to me everything points to a multiball ....

well, there's the fact that the scum faction that HAS flipped doesn't have a specific name

1) werewolves would negate the need for specific names. Of course that implies that (a) the cop is half useless and (b) none of the wolfies have flipped, nor been too scummy.

2) Not likely. SK/3P for life.

i'm saying i agree w/ you

not to mention the fact oka is a really sk-ish kill

if i had to guess mafia probably knows who the sk is

if you are saying that Oka was killed by a sk than I would have to disagree with you. There is nothing pointing to that being true
Huh....why would the scum know who the SK is. Unless the have a role cop or something,

I was thinking werewolves as well though it could be as simple as it being red scum and x colored scum. I am also thinking that maybe the WW had night ability though this is just pure speculation. The point being is if there is two scum teams than we cant use connections to Sakura, FF and Not

[Thor665]

could you give me a full reads list?

or a list of people you think are town and a list of people you think are not so town?

I literally just gave you a color coded wagon analysis a few days ago. I also literally stated my reads on an entire secondary wagon - that's like 10 reads that I offered in specific ansers to *you* within the week.
Is there someone in particular you feel lost on as to my reads on them? I feel like you're asking me repetitive busy work questions.
Where is this going?
You and I both know I'm offering reads and offering them to you - so why are you acting like I'm not or that, somehow, I'm not sharing reads, or that I'm hedging reads or something? What do you even think I'm doing that causes this question to be asked?

Thor is not clear just cause you JKed him, if that's what you did, I am surprised by this cause the way NS refused to scumread Thor made me think they were likely the same alignment.

NS did refuse to scumread me...while voting me.

Town due to meta if not play - as it has been since yesterday. Why, what should be changing it?

His continued lurk will eventually make Marquis re-assess the read.

I thought this looked like you weren't really over the scumread on him entirely.

i am not over his play entirely.
Also I was making fun of Marquis a bit in there too, I'll admit.

Still to me everything points to a multiball ....

well, there's the fact that the scum faction that HAS flipped doesn't have a specific name

'Mafia' is a potentially specific name.

if i had to guess mafia probably knows who the sk is

What makes you conclude that?
Really, both concepts;

1. There is an SK
2. Mafia know who it is

I don't follow either.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

I am liking the WW idea more and more and it fits alot of things.

[ika]

we lynching thor?

[Antihero]

if you are saying that Oka was killed by a sk than I would have to disagree with you. There is nothing pointing to that being true
Huh....why would the scum know who the SK is. Unless the have a role cop or something,

I was thinking werewolves as well though it could be as simple as it being red scum and x colored scum. I am also thinking that maybe the WW had night ability though this is just pure speculation. The point being is if there is two scum teams than we cant use connections to Sakura, FF and Not

What makes you conclude that?
Really, both concepts;

1. There is an SK
2. Mafia know who it is

I don't follow either.

'mkay, i'll walk ya'll through it

21 players
single faction scum team size is likely 5. depending on how much power the scum team has / how powerful the town is / how many immunities sk has, an sk would likely make a scumteam of 4 or 5.

for multifaction, the faction ratios would undoubtedly be 3:3:15. 4:4:13 would create hypothetical scenarios where town could lynch scum every day and still lose. i know all those reviewers and i know they wouldn't let bulge get away w/ something like that. by the end of day 2, a hypothetical wolf team would already know mafia was finished (by faction number symmetry). so, why kill oka? he wasn't a claimed pr and he wasn't a universal town read. i'm about 95% sure it was an attempt at a cross-kill. i called the kill "sk-ish" because it fits pretty closely with a vig kill profile: someone who's vaguely scummy and lurk-ish.

SO WITH THAT
i'm concluding the most likely scenario is a mafia of 4 or 5 (probably 4 if i had to guess) and an sk.

NOW
the reason i said mafia probably know the identity of the sk is a little more out there but my gut tells me it's true. assuming i'm right about oka being an sk kill, which i'm pretty sure i am, that means the mafia kill failed twice now. quite a few protective or pseudo-protective roles have already flipped or claimed. we've got the mafia roleblocker, the town watcher, and varsoon's claimed jk so far. (futhermore with the exception of varsoon's jk show, we know none of these are actually responsible for a missed kill. that'll be important later.) i'm assuming the sk has an immunity or combination thereof, they almost always do. bp is really common, as is some sort of investigation immunity (godfather or ninja or both). SO, assuming there are no more kill stopping roles out there (a moderately ok assumption) AND the sk has a bp modifier (a very ok assumption), i think the chances are better than average that one of the first two scum kills were foiled by the sk's bp.

it's a guess. but i don't think it's a bad one.

EXTRA THING
the reason i said i'm taking cop results w/ a grain of salt now is a possible investigation immunity for the sk and scum team balancing. i'm goin' out on a limb and saying last scumbag could be a godfather for a several reasons. one is simple balancing and how newb mods balance. newb mods tend to create swingy, tit-for-tat powder kegs of really powerful town prs and scum immunities. they'll put in town cops+watchers+trackers+docs and scum godfathers+ninjas+strongmen and all indications from flips/claims says this is what bulge did. another thing is that gork's been claimed for a couple days now and hasn't been touched, even w/ a dead scum roleblocker. this implies his role's not a threat.

alternatively, thor's scum of some flavor and varsoon stopped the kill. this is actually pretty plausible, given that varsoon was a claimed vig and i think he would probably be pretty high on the "to kill" list as well.

[pisskop]

So the trdl is we should lynch thor

[Gorkington]

This is me saying that we still shouldn't lynch pisskop and copper today or tomorrow for that matter.
All things considered.

[Marquis]

i agree

we should be lynching thor

[Antihero]

well.........

/sigh

that seems like a little bit of a hasty conclusion to jump to.

there's the double-edged nature of the jailkeep that leaves some reasonable doubt.

[pisskop]

I have never been an SK. Dont wanna get into theory too heavily, but why do they act differently than town? They need to scumhunt too, and their main difference is that they want to

keep

parody with scum rather than kill them.

pedit:
We should get thor to claim then, and reassess?

[Marquis]

like it's not even that i'm just tunneling this time; his recent posts have all been super shallow/noncommittal to any read in depth and self-absorbed too

[Antihero]

This is me saying that we still shouldn't lynch pisskop and copper today or tomorrow for that matter.
All things considered.

pisskop, yes
copper, ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

i'll agree not today but he's a name floating around my head for sk

[Marquis]

I have never been an SK. Dont wanna get into theory too heavily, but why do they act differently than town? They need to scumhunt too, and their main difference is that they want to

keep

parody with scum rather than kill them.

i just finished a game as sk

generally the play is to try and lynch town and kill scum to claim vig, or lynch scum and claim town to try and get by on pro-town day play

i chose the latter, but fucked up and killed scum too. this also might not be what most sks do but in general think of an sk like a scum who's just lying in wait to claim vig should they ever come under pressure

on that note, i almost convinced myself to look at varsoon again, but then i remembered the other n1 mafia kill with no cc and he's still prob town in this case