Micro 618 {Over}

[BNL]

Rereading Murdercat again. I didn't like some posts where he reacted poorly to pressure (I'll quote them, not sure how to explain in words), but reading back my previous game with him, I realised he said "Gimme a break" as town there, which was one of the things that pinged me.

[BNL]

Actually yeah just read back, nothing much actually pinged me, except for the BTD vote, "Gimme a break" and "I'll humor you".

[JaeReed]

Jae, you still fine L-1ing 3 days from deadline? I'd prefer that only two days away IMO.

Not really, but I am unsure on you and my strongest townread got put 1 vote off the top wagon. All it would have taken was you switching from Murder to D&A. I'm not letting my strongest townread get lynched without a fight. This way I think(?) that makes Murder the longer standing wagon from the two of them.

For the record, I'm not certain on Murder atm, but at this point it's whether I'd rather him or D&A. Which means that, if we assume BTD's claim is true, the likely scum are in those I've been town or nullreading. So BNL, Charl, Karnos, Chip. Karnos I really think is town. Charl isn't acting like his scumgame here either. Problem with that is I'm left with someone I have a propensity for townreading as either alignment (BNL) and someone I have a propensity for scumreading as town (Chip).

I don't know. If we assume BTD and Murder are both town then my reads are thoroughly fucked. The one thing I am sure of is D&A as town, and therefore, I want them alive as someone I trust to be coming from a town mindset.

[BNL]

Rereading karnos ISO. Would want to point out this contradiction while I continue reading:

You realize this is a micro game right? L-1 in a micro game is about the same as L-2 in a larger game. There are only 2 scum. I put BTD at L-1 because I'd LOVE to see a scum quick-hammer him, it would rip the game wide open and give town a free lynch tomorrow. I trust my fellow town to not hammer needlessly. I also saw some value in seeing exactly how BTD reacted to the sudden wagon.

But now all that is for naught.

Not strongly, I was voting him to provide a service:

Can we wagon BTD please? I'm not comfortable with a townread of mine running up time as the highest wagon while BTD is looking scummy and laying low content-wise. If BNL's town then that's exactly what the wolves want to happen here.

[BNL]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

But why leave D&A? Why would you rather vote Murdercat than D&A, having both as scum?

The strategy being, find both scum on day 1, kill the less likely scum first.

That way, if somehow BTD's claim is legit, we get a night of seering if we guessed wrong. And if we guess right, then we lynch the likely wolf tomorrow and win.

It's probably not going to be *that* easy, but the strategy is sound, is it not?

Why answer for Chip?

[MURDERCAT]

V/LA until tomorrow night

Sorry, I'll have more time soon.

[karnos]

Hmm. I was going to vote murdercat to bring him to L-1, but I'll wait a bit since he is V/LA anyway. I don't agree with most of what BTD wrote earlier, in 386 , sounds like a lot of scum logic, but I still don't want to lynch him first.

[Chip Butty]

Well, MC is my choice for second wolf, so I don't mind taking him to

L-1

.

VOTE: MURDERCAT

But why leave D&A? Why would you rather vote Murdercat than D&A, having both as scum?

Apologies for being a bit absent lately. Will post tomorrow, including an answer to this question. Think I've taken on a bit much with five games.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 1.14

BulletNLynchproof (1)

Dionysus and Ariadne

Murdercat (3)

ReallySick JaeReed Chip Butty (L-2)

Dionysus and Ariadne (2)

Charloux BTD6_Maker

Not Voting (3)

BulletNLynchproof Murdercat karnos

Deadline is on Tuesday, June 21st: (expired on 2016-06-21 04:15:00).

[Ranger]

Players: I'm V/LA for today, maybe tomorrow.

Don't have the time to post today, probably will have the time tomorrow but may not, circumstances depending.
As per the norm, mhsmith should be able to cover you for the basics of VCs and prods, but lynches/topics will have to wait.

[JaeReed]

Rereading karnos ISO. Would want to point out this contradiction while I continue reading:

You realize this is a micro game right? L-1 in a micro game is about the same as L-2 in a larger game. There are only 2 scum. I put BTD at L-1 because I'd LOVE to see a scum quick-hammer him, it would rip the game wide open and give town a free lynch tomorrow. I trust my fellow town to not hammer needlessly. I also saw some value in seeing exactly how BTD reacted to the sudden wagon.

But now all that is for naught.

Not strongly, I was voting him to provide a service:

Can we wagon BTD please? I'm not comfortable with a townread of mine running up time as the highest wagon while BTD is looking scummy and laying low content-wise. If BNL's town then that's exactly what the wolves want to happen here.

I see no contradiction here. He voted BTD because I asked for it and decided it would be good for reactions. That's a part of what wagons are. I was scumreading BTD but he didn't need to in order to join the wagon.

[karnos]

Whoops, I should have responded to that on my own.

At the time, I didn't have a strong scum read on BTD. If I wanted to be specific, I could say I read him as a little scummy, but I always seem to read BTD as scummy, so I figured I was just reading him as I always do and didn't have a strong opinion on his alignment.

Anyway, I voted BTD based on the urging of Jae, but at the same time I thought it was a good idea because it provided useful information either way. I figured if BTD was town, we would give him a chance to explain and/or claim, and if he was scum we might see some signs of that under the pressure of being one vote away from lynch. I'm starting to realize not many players share my opinion that sometimes voting null or null/town reads can lead to a positive information gain for town, but it is what it is.

Of course now after the L-1, the unvotes, the revotes, the fake hammer, and all the spewing, my read has changed dramatically. BTD is probably scum, IMO, but I do see value in keeping him alive for another day at least, while hunting the other wolf.

[Nahdia]

Of course now after the L-1, the unvotes, the revotes, the fake hammer, and all the spewing, my read has changed dramatically. BTD is probably scum, IMO, but I do see value in keeping him alive for another day at least, while hunting the other wolf.

Agreed.

Now vote BNL with me, por favor.

-Ariadne

[Dionysus and Ariadne]

Of course now after the L-1, the unvotes, the revotes, the fake hammer, and all the spewing, my read has changed dramatically. BTD is probably scum, IMO, but I do see value in keeping him alive for another day at least, while hunting the other wolf.

Agreed.

Now vote BNL with me, por favor.

-Ariadne

[Dionysus and Ariadne]

BTD still insisting I'm hard scum at this point after I retracted my claim and my motivations are transparent is either really really ignorant town or stubborn scum. I'm strongly leaning towards the latter.

-Ariadne

[karnos]

What is better, lynching a Townie and keeping the Seer or lynching a scum and losing the Seer? It's a trade-off here.

If keeping a Seer is good, there is no point in lynching anyone but the Towniest person. (This is very rare in other games, but the Vengekill mechanic makes it a possibility, albeit unlikely).

If lynching scum is good, lynch the most likely scum and risk losing me.

Either way, there is no point to deliberately lynching the second scummiest. Murdercat still is scummy to me but D&A is my real lynch target. It's a viable lynch and the voting mechanics make it much better to vote for your top scum than to compromise.

Also, investigating a weaker scumread gives strictly more information to Town than investigating the top scum. If I investigate D&A, I will most likely just be confirming my suspicion and I would support a lynch even without an investigation. If I investigate Murdercat, it could go either way. If scum, we lynch him and if Town, we know he is conftown.

Overall, your logic is flawed.

There are just all kinds of problems with the above.

We lynch the 2nd best lynch target because if it is indeed a wolf, then there is a great chance both wolves have been found, so a seer vengekill is irrelevant.

And sure, in a vacuum it might make sense to investigate scumread #2. Except this isn't a vacuum- this is a game where scumread #2 is likely being lynched. Investigating the dead isn't going to accomplish anything.

On the other hand, I didn't like Karnos' fake hammer and subsequent reaction to my claim. He seemed to try to push for my lynch despite my claim, with no genuine counterclaim.

I find it odd you would say that. The only reason you didn't get real hammered is because I unvoted. I could have revoted and hammered you if I just wanted you lynched.

I'm not trying to push for your lynch, today. But I am suggesting you remain a top lynch choice. I don't think there will be a counterclaim because of the breaking strategy that could exist with a seer. I think it's unlikely a seer role even exists in this setup, because a non-voting town could prevent anyone from getting lynched while letting the seer work each night, and guarantee a town win. The alternative being a seer exists but the scum have an immune-investigation role seems just a bit silly to me, but potentially could be the case, so that is the only reason I am not pushing for your lynch today.

[karnos]

Now vote BNL with me, por favor.

My vote is reserved for murdercat, I just want to wait until he is off V/LA to place it.

[JaeReed]

V/LA until tomorrow night

Sorry, I'll have more time soon.

I desperately need your thoughts on the gamestate when you can. Specifically your thoughts on BNL as a potential partner for BTD.

I think you might actually be town here but am less certain than I am on D&A which is the only reason I need your wagon to be higher. Your best bet for survival here is voting BNL because that's where I would rather be right now.

For the record, Karnos, I don't think Murdercat could be BTD's partner based off an ISO. He was too amiable to the lynch there and continued to scumread BTD after the claim like the rest of us.

[JaeReed]

@ReallySick can I convince you to vote BNL instead, also?

[BTD6_maker]

Murdercat is my fourth strongest scumread. I am OK with a lynch on him but I would rather push and vote for a lynch on one of my three stronger scumreads (D&A, Karnos, and BNL). Of these, D&A and BNL would be preferable lynches to Murdercat.

What I don't like about lynching Murdercat is that most people are actually pushing for the wrong reasons. If Murdercar is a strong scumread, by all means vote. If not, vote for a strong scumread.

[JaeReed]

Moderate Town: Charloux
Null-weak Town: Chip, ReallySick, JaeReed
Weak scum: BNL, Murdercat
Moderate-strong scum: Karnos, D&A

Murdercat is my fourth strongest scumread. I am OK with a lynch on him but I would rather push and vote for a lynch on one of my three stronger scumreads (D&A, Karnos, and BNL). Of these, D&A and BNL would be preferable lynches to Murdercat.

What I don't like about lynching Murdercat is that most people are actually pushing for the wrong reasons. If Murdercar is a strong scumread, by all means vote. If not, vote for a strong scumread.

Ok so why D&A or BNL instead of D&A or Karnos? What changed for you?

[BNL]

Rereading karnos ISO. Would want to point out this contradiction while I continue reading:

You realize this is a micro game right? L-1 in a micro game is about the same as L-2 in a larger game. There are only 2 scum. I put BTD at L-1 because I'd LOVE to see a scum quick-hammer him, it would rip the game wide open and give town a free lynch tomorrow. I trust my fellow town to not hammer needlessly. I also saw some value in seeing exactly how BTD reacted to the sudden wagon.

But now all that is for naught.

Not strongly, I was voting him to provide a service:

Can we wagon BTD please? I'm not comfortable with a townread of mine running up time as the highest wagon while BTD is looking scummy and laying low content-wise. If BNL's town then that's exactly what the wolves want to happen here.

I see no contradiction here. He voted BTD because I asked for it and decided it would be good for reactions. That's a part of what wagons are. I was scumreading BTD but he didn't need to in order to join the wagon.

First, karnos says that he voted BTD for reactions (from potential hammerers and BTD himself), then he says it was because he wanted to follow you. Are you seeing something that I am not?

[JaeReed]

First, karnos says that he voted BTD for reactions (from potential hammerers and BTD himself), then he says it was because he wanted to follow you. Are you seeing something that I am not?

Yup! My QuickTopic with him!

[BTD6_maker]

No one is voting Karnos so the lynch on him is not viable for now.

[BTD6_maker]

What is better, lynching a Townie and keeping the Seer or lynching a scum and losing the Seer? It's a trade-off here.

If keeping a Seer is good, there is no point in lynching anyone but the Towniest person. (This is very rare in other games, but the Vengekill mechanic makes it a possibility, albeit unlikely).

If lynching scum is good, lynch the most likely scum and risk losing me.

Either way, there is no point to deliberately lynching the second scummiest. Murdercat still is scummy to me but D&A is my real lynch target. It's a viable lynch and the voting mechanics make it much better to vote for your top scum than to compromise.

Also, investigating a weaker scumread gives strictly more information to Town than investigating the top scum. If I investigate D&A, I will most likely just be confirming my suspicion and I would support a lynch even without an investigation. If I investigate Murdercat, it could go either way. If scum, we lynch him and if Town, we know he is conftown.

Overall, your logic is flawed.

There are just all kinds of problems with the above.

We lynch the 2nd best lynch target because if it is indeed a wolf, then there is a great chance both wolves have been found, so a seer vengekill is irrelevant.

And sure, in a vacuum it might make sense to investigate scumread #2. Except this isn't a vacuum- this is a game where scumread #2 is likely being lynched. Investigating the dead isn't going to accomplish anything.

On the other hand, I didn't like Karnos' fake hammer and subsequent reaction to my claim. He seemed to try to push for my lynch despite my claim, with no genuine counterclaim.

I find it odd you would say that. The only reason you didn't get real hammered is because I unvoted. I could have revoted and hammered you if I just wanted you lynched.

I'm not trying to push for your lynch, today. But I am suggesting you remain a top lynch choice. I don't think there will be a counterclaim because of the breaking strategy that could exist with a seer. I think it's unlikely a seer role even exists in this setup, because a non-voting town could prevent anyone from getting lynched while letting the seer work each night, and guarantee a town win. The alternative being a seer exists but the scum have an immune-investigation role seems just a bit silly to me, but potentially could be the case, so that is the only reason I am not pushing for your lynch today.

Or you could just have a Roleblocker. A Seer that can only be killed through vengekill is worth slightly less than a Cop+Doc so a Roleblocker seems like a very likely possibility.