NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Porochaz]

Reading pages 124 and 125 again, yos in retrospect has an awful couple of pages, trying to get DGB to convince him she is town. He's tumbling over himself, the line of questioning (along with "the trap") is weird.

It's also the only thing I've noted up until that point beyond thing VitaminR is more town due to his yos posts and things I am putting in a big pile called "ABR's scum pile but people are happy to ignore". His adamant OGML read is the thing that I want an update on most, however I believe ABR has stated he already finds him scum still.

[Porochaz]

Defscums
STD
OGML

Maybes
Yosarian
one of Bookitty/mathcam?
GC? Poro?

I have VitaminR as scummy and Bookitty as town.

Do you still hold this opinion ABR? If so, why?

[Yosarian2]

It's not scummy to change your mind. It's scummy to have a drastic change with weak evidence. How does what you posted not make sense so much so that you are suddenly certain of your poro vote?

I'm not "certain" of anything, of course. I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know why MBL seemed to think I'm always certain all the time; I'm almost never certain of anything in a mafia game, and certanly not in this game. (There was only one time this game I was really 100% sure of something, and I ended up being wrong that time anyway.)

Earlier today, I was thinking that the most likely scenario (say, 60% chance) was that mathcam and porchaz were scum together. That dropped somewhat after Mathcam pointed out that he'd attacked Porochaz earlier; at that point, I would have guessed that there was maybe a 60% chance mathcam was scum and poro was town, a 20% chance poro was town and mathcam was scum, and a 20% chance they were both scum together. When I reluctantly voted for porchaz, it was based on the idea that there was maybe a 30%-40% chance porochaz was scum.

But why would hypo-mathcam-scum make a post that would clear me if porochaz flips town, right before a porochaz lynch? Doesn't make sense. That really increased the odds of porchaz being scum with mathcam (which would mean mathcam is trying to set me up), and it increased the odds of mathcam being town (in which case porochaz is pretty likely to be scum; there just aren't that many suspects left).

I now think the instead of something like a 40% chance of poro being scum, in which case I'll reluctantly go along with him as a compromise lynch, there's something like a 60% chance of being scum, in which case he's probably the best possible lynch.

[Porochaz]

Not a fan of GC's willingness to go with two easy wagons (DGB and StD). Feels the most slippery out of the people voting for either today.

You have been more under my radar than most in this game. Which is saying something. Beyond your yos posts Im not really sure where you are within the rest of the game. How are you feeling in regards to GC now?

[Porochaz]

Ok, well looking outwith that post, outwith today, mathcam has been the only player (give or take a shitty case from chamber) who has been consistently suspicious of me and pushing at me to have more suspicion. His post is a pile of crap, granted, but Im not sure you can legitamitely draw any conclusions from it. Furthermore, I honestly can't fully tell what conclusions you did reach beyond my own assumptions because your post was garbled.

[Juls]

But why would hypo-mathcam-scum make a post that would clear me if porochaz flips town, right before a porochaz lynch? Doesn't make sense. That really increased the odds of porchaz being scum with mathcam (which would mean mathcam is trying to set me up), and it increased the odds of mathcam being town (in which case porochaz is pretty likely to be scum; there just aren't that many suspects left).

That only speaks to mathcam's alignment, not poro's. Explain to me how you read the latter based on comments by the former?

[mathcam]

Huh, this is...interesting.

I think Yos makes a lot of sense as scum if Poro flips scum. I'd say lynch Poro first and see. If Poro flips scum, I'll be on Yos like white on rice. If Poro flips town, I might actually go read VitR vs. Yos.

This post doesn't really make sense if Mathcam is scum and porochaz is town, like I was just assuming (literally 15 seconds ago). Something's wrong here.

Funny, I made that exact point in a previous post:

None of this suspicion makes a ton of sense if poro is town (it'd be easier for Yosscum to play it being opposed to the poro lynch than the rigamarole he actually did), so from my perspective it doesn't make sense to go after Yos first.

and it didn't seem to draw Yos's attention then. This newfound revelation of his seems a little desperate/forced.

I also don't like Yos's ignoring of 3999: A town Yos would recognize the benefits of producing such a list, a scum Yos (a) doesn't want to give away too much if he dies, (b) doesn't want to throw his buddies under a bus as we approach endgame, and (c) doesn't want to let the town think "Okay, now that we have his list, we can lynch him and go from there."

Yeah, I'm pretty happy with this lynch.

Unvote: Poro, Vote: Yos2.

[Patrick]

Final Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (8) -- Juls, Albert B. Rampage, chamber, MrBuddyLee, VitaminR, undo, Porochaz, mathcam
Porochaz (4) -- Sotty7, Bookitty, Green Crayons, Yosarian2

Not voting: ChannelDelibird
14 alive, 8 to lynch.

------------------------

Yosarian2 - Vanilla Townie - lynched day 5

And with that you all disappear for night 5, which will inevitably last 72 hours.

[Patrick]

You all arrive today to find that Juls has been killed in the night.

Juls - Mason - killed night 5

Day 6 begins. With 12 players alive, it now takes only 7 votes to lynch. Your deadline is Monday 25th August.

[Juls]

Bah! Good luck town! Enjoyed playing.

[Sotty7]

Vote: CDB

Myself and Juls managed to get a pretty good dialog going these last few hours and she founds some good stuff on OGML+STD partnership. OGML pretty much ignores the push on STD and just blankets him with a "soild town" read ever since replacing in but with no explanation at any point. When pressure moves towards OGML wagon STD comes in and votes CES. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=2600

Others we discussed as high scum picks - Mathcam + Poro.

mathcam's hammer on yos was pretty terrible and felt pretty forced.
Poro is just weak all around. Juls said she has a hard time picturing a scum team without him in right now and I can understand that. I just want him not to be catching up all day for a change.

I personally found MBL's push on Yos to be bad all round. The using of dead townies to support YosScum was the highlight of terrible. Degraded my town read significantly.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I told you Yosarian was town. Nobody believed me.

Vote: CDB

Speed lynch CDB please.

[ChannelDelibird]

Right, I am not letting that happen today. Apologies for not being around as I should have at the end of the day - I must confess that a feeling at the back of my mind that you guys would be lynching Prozac whether or not I had caught up in time may not have helped. That absolutely should be corrected Today, and I will be looking back to see where the key derailments of that wagon were.

VOTE: Porochaz, more when it's not 3am.

Needless to say, don't speedlynch me.

[Green Crayons]

I told you Yosarian was town.

Nobody believed me.

Lies and damned lies.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I said Yosarian was town. Juls was so sure of herself, she wouldn't even listen to me. Just wanted to do what she wanted to do without even listening to the players who were caught up, disrupting the entire thought flow that I had.

After DGB was lynched we should have just speedlynched CDB.

[Albert B. Rampage]

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Green Crayons]

Juls, there's no way that Yosarian is scum.

Pick someone inside this group please:

[Porochaz, CDB, mathcam]

lol

-----

Final Votecount

ChannelDelibird (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (8) -- Juls, Albert B. Rampage, chamber, MrBuddyLee,

VitaminR, undo, Porochaz, mathcam

Porochaz (4) -- Sotty7, Bookitty, Green Crayons, Yosarian2

From bolded on down are players with big question marks by their alignment (undo notwithstanding), and made the major push happen for a Yos lynch -- they jumped on to a Yos lynch as soon as I jumped off relative to Patrick's Post 3943. When Porochaz was the obvlynch all damned day, you'll have to excuse me if I'm only a lot suspicious about the fact that Porochaz wasn't yesterday's lynch.

VOTE: Porochaz

[Green Crayons]

Also Bookitty and I are the only non-confirmed town on the Porochaz final vote count, and I'm 100% certain of my alignment (duh) and 80% certain about Bookitty being town.

[Green Crayons]

If Porochaz flips red, Vitamin looks really bad in his shift from Porochaz to Yos.

[Green Crayons]

@MBL:

have you ever made a "how long does it take to type a post" argument before?

[Green Crayons]

@MBL:

also, what was this about:

vote: Yosarian2

unvote

vote: Yos

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm angry.

[mathcam]

Vote: porochaz.

[mathcam]

I'll sheep Juls on this.

Unvote, vote Yosarian

This looks really bad in hindsight.

[Albert B. Rampage]

No it doesn't