Micro 661 | Scumteam UnPick - Pressure Done

[ZZZX]

His first three posts (7, 21, 36) are already discussing how to make use of the setup in a way that benefits town. Given that as scum, he very likely would have discussed whether or not he would lie about his picks, I think that would have made him hesitant to take the lead on claiming and keeping track of picks.

His theory points in 92 are similar in the way that he just puts information out there, something I think scum would be self-conscious about, and also how he admits that he doesn't support plans that go beyond D1; scum already generally plan things out and this setup makes it even more likely that they'd be planning out their moves ahead of time.

I like how in 123 he didn't attack my slot for being confused. I also like how in 293 he admitted that he was widely townread but didn't try to use it to accomplish anything, instead rejecting a proposed townblock with him in it. (And one that he easily could have accepted as scum given that he was townreading me and Gamma.)

It's a bit hard to explain, but his posts just give off a sincere-town vibe that I've found almost always comes from town. (Except for Nahdia. ) The best other example that I can think of off the top of my head is Transcend in this game.

Im not sure if I should like this or hate it. Anyway I am interested in this post and quoting it now for future referance

[ZZZX]

His first three posts (7, 21, 36) are already discussing how to make use of the setup in a way that benefits town. Given that as scum, he very likely would have discussed whether or not he would lie about his picks, I think that would have made him hesitant to take the lead on claiming and keeping track of picks.

His theory points in 92 are similar in the way that he just puts information out there, something I think scum would be self-conscious about, and also how he admits that he doesn't support plans that go beyond D1; scum already generally plan things out and this setup makes it even more likely that they'd be planning out their moves ahead of time.

I like how in 123 he didn't attack my slot for being confused. I also like how in 293 he admitted that he was widely townread but didn't try to use it to accomplish anything, instead rejecting a proposed townblock with him in it. (And one that he easily could have accepted as scum given that he was townreading me and Gamma.)

It's a bit hard to explain, but his posts just give off a sincere-town vibe that I've found almost always comes from town. (Except for Nahdia. ) The best other example that I can think of off the top of my head is Transcend in this game.

Generally Positive vibes from Dunhallym even thou shes trying to attack me at every chance

[ZZZX]

ZZZX doesn't seem to have posted ANYTHING wrt me.

I remeber I talked about ProHawk ands not about you tbh. Let me go through my stuff

[ZZZX]

then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?

While its not a strong arguement I can see maybe him seeing me as a way for him to confirm late-game as I have only 2 scumparing inc/him which makes me easy to clear. Or just me having 2 pairings.

Or just having nothing to put me in the scumpool in the first place. Probably.

[Dunhallym]

Finished up to the bottom of page nine. I can't see any of Jaack, Gamma, or ZZZX flipping scum here. It's pretty much got to be two of Prohawk, Smart, or Dunhallym. Going to try and figure out which of them is town. I'm leaning towards lynching ProHawk though.

I can get Jaack at this point but can you explain gamma and ZZZZX ?

[Dunhallym]

then tell me what has ZZZX done to be out of the scumpool?

While its not a strong arguement I can see maybe him seeing me as a way for him to confirm late-game as I have only 2 scumparing inc/him which makes me easy to clear. Or just me having 2 pairings.

Or just having nothing to put me in the scumpool in the first place. Probably.

Yeah. In fact when I thought about it I could see the answer which SSmart gave later (as he hard town reads Jaack you can only be my partner from his PoV so no point in lynching you before me) but I still asked in case there was something else. Besides I disliked the peremptory tone he used as if there was no questioning it.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, I'm pretty sure both scum are within Prohawk, Dunhallym, and Smart to the point I won't be considering anyone else before lylo. We have limited time. I'll try my best to make sure we lynch scum today but I'm having a hard time finding the town in Prohawk, Dun, and Smart. I think it's Smart but I'm not really sure on that. Because deadline's approaching, I'll also try and see what outcomes I can live with in case we're wrong and place my vote based off of that. Let's see what happens if each of Prohawk, Dun, or Smart are lynched. I'll assume Jaack to be the nightkill since he's the most universally townread player.

If the scumteam is Prohawk and Dunhallym:

- If

Prohawk

is lynched, Dun would need to lynch both me and Smart to win. This is a decently good outcome.
- If

Dunhallym

is lynched, Prohawk has options from ZZZX, Gamma, and Smart. He'd need to lynch any two to win. This is a fantastic outcome because I have confidence in making good decisions as conf-town.
- If

Smart

is lynched and Jaack is nightkilled, it would be either BV/PH, Dun/PH, Gamma/PH, Gamma/BV, Gamma/Dun, or Dun/ZZZX. We'd likely lynch Prohawk next and have a 3-way between me, Dun, and Gamma. Not something I find appealing because I'd rather not get to 3-way in the first place.

If the scumteam is Prohawk and Smart:

- If

Prohawk

is lynched, Smart would need to lynch both me and Dun to win. This is a decently good outcome.
- If

Smart

is lynched, Prohawk has options from ZZZX, Gamma, and Dun. He'd need to lynch any two to win. This is a fantastic outcome because I have confidence in making good decisions as conf-town.
- If

Dunhallym

is lynched, and Jaack/Gamma is nightkilled, it would be either BV/PH, Smart/PH, Gamma/PH, Gamma/BV, or Smart/ZZZX. We'd likely lynch Prohawk next and have a 3-way between me, Smart, and conftown Jaack/Gamma/ZZZX. Not something I find appealing because I'd rather not get to 3-way in the first place.

If the scumteam is Dunhallym and Smart:

- If

Dunhallym

is lynched, Smart has options from ZZZX, Prohawk, or Gamma. This is a fantastic outcome.
- If

Smart

is lynched, Dunhallym has options from ZZZX, Prohawk, and Jaack. This is a fantastic outcome.
- If

Prohawk

is lynched, here's where things get a little complicated. ZZZX, Jaack, Gamma, BV, Smart, Dun. If we assume Jaack is nightkilled, it sets up Gamma and me against Smart and Dun. I have a decent amount of confidence, we'll get one of them lynched hopefully Dunhallym. It would confirm me as town and set up Gamma and ZZZX to go to three-way with Smart where they'll likely make the right choice. This doesn't seem like too horrible an outcome.

Overall, I want to hedge my bets here. Lynching one of Dun/Smart is high-risk, high-reward. If they flip scum, it'll be great but if we're wrong, lynching Prohawk and me back-to-back loses us the game. On the other hand, lynching Prohawk is low-risk, low-reward. If he flips town, I can live with that. If he flips scum, it's going to be between me, Dun, and Smart but we got two lynches to figure it out and I'm decently confident that we can.

So, unless something happens in the next three days where I get a confident read, Prohawk is who I want to lynch. I'm in the middle of page fifteen right now. I'll vote when I'm caught up.

[Something_Smart]

Smart, why aren't you voting?

I think the answer to this question is fairly obvious. I hadn't decided where I wanted to vote yet. See below though

@SSmart you said this

I thought that ssbm was more likely town due in part to how stupid that move would be as scum, and I thought that if town he would be trying to identify town and scum, and maybe save himself in the process.

I understood it as meaning that you had understood ssbm's post as a reaction test. That's why I made the point that to me your posts don't show that.

No, actually, I thought his post was real, and I thought it represented a true change of opinion. Something that scum rarely do because they want to seem consistent, but sometimes townies do have sudden ideas or realizations that cause abrupt read changes. So that's why I said that.

In a game where bussing is bad, that's kinda what I'd expect from scum.

This is coming from a guy whose reads completely avoid him voting for his partners.

Wow is this a leading post.

Contrary to my memory, ProHawk was never scumreading Tenshii.

Prohawk, what are your thoughts on Tenshii?

I remember feeling like Tenshii's push on me was a bit scummy, but while engaging him that feeling wore off. I can go re-read some stuff, but not getting the scum-vibes there.

I'm just going to leave this here....

Jaack, your vote on me is bad. Your reasoning is bad. And its all based on an associative that you have NO CLUE about. Oh look, Tenshii reincarnate wants to lynch me. YOU'RE RIGHT! We totes decided to hard bus eachother because.... new guy!

VOTE: Jaack

Lying scum.

And this is even worse.

Okay, I might as well put my cards on the table. I feel better about Dunhallym after our exchange, and nothing much had happened to change my scumread on ProHawk until these quoted posts which were terrible. BlackVoid writing Jaack, Gamma and ZZZX off as town makes me more than a little uncomfortable, as those are my townreads too so I wonder if he's either trying to appeal to me or keep me as a townbeard to protect his buddy Gamma. But I think no matter how you slice it, it comes down to this, since a townflip would give us a ton of information and a scumflip would almost solve the game.
VOTE: ProHawk

[ProHawk]

What the hell is terrible about the posts. You don't just get to say GARBAGE and that makes it trash.

Here.

Gosh SS that post takes the cake for worst post ever. Are you dumb town or just scum?

[ProHawk]

Okay, I'm pretty sure both scum are within Prohawk, Dunhallym, and Smart

Dun is the most town player in this game.

I'm town.

Are you really going to be just like Jaack? BUDDY ALERT!

I'll assume Jaack to be the nightkill since he's the most universally townread player.

L O Freaking L

[ProHawk]

Ugh, you can't possibly be scum, but good job turning the tide for scum. You can be an honorary team-mate I guess

[BlackVoid]

Well, I don't think it's Jaack. If you are town, the team I see as likely is Smart and Dun. Do you think they make sense as a team? Why are you townreading Dun?

[ProHawk]

Dun has been the most active player this game, and not just active in posting for posts' sake, but actively engaging players and getting them to think and contribute. This is inherently anti-scum.

Why are you town-reading Jaaak?

[BlackVoid]

Active, sure. But the way she went after Jin/ssbm felt like she was just playing off of Jaack's suspicion there and riding on his coattails. Jaack on the other hand was a lot more pro-active with how he pushed Jin/ssbm. I could follow his thought process easily and I can tell why he went for that lynch.

[Something_Smart]

What the hell is terrible about the posts. You don't just get to say GARBAGE and that makes it trash.

Here.

Gosh SS that post takes the cake for worst post ever. Are you dumb town or just scum?

416 is begging the question because you're assuming Jaack is scum (because if he's town then he has no partners) and using it to prove that he's scum.

423 is assuming that just because somebody is wrong, they have to be lying scum. Not to mention that you're quoting a post that came before BV's catchup and trying to say that it's a bad post because it failed to take into account something from BV's catchup.

[ProHawk]

Jaack is my scum-read, and is likely scum. He is setting up his endgame by claiming I am scum because of scum-team matrix associatives before flips.

He isn't lying scum because he is wrong, he is lying scum because he is using the lie to make me look bad.

[BlackVoid]

@Gamma, you are posting a lot on site but haven't posted here since yesterday after I gave you my reads. Is there a reason for that? I was hoping for your take on them.

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm avoiding this game tbh since I'm having a lot of trouble forming opinions. I don't think I'll be able to put in much effort in the future tbh.

Replace me out

[Creature]

Searching Gamma Emerald replacement.

[BlackVoid]

I'm on mobile, so I'm not going to 'formalize' my case this moment, but the gist of it is that they scumread each other right from the get go but have slowly devolved into town reads overtime. In a game where bussing is bad, that's kinda what I'd expect from scum.

I agree that bussing is bad. I think you should look at Prohawk/Dunhallym interactions. Each has the other as town for inexplicable reasons. Dun says that Prohawk is town but that there is a potential link to my slot. In other words, she doesn't want to lynch Prohawk, but if he does get lynched, she's setting up to go after me next. Their early play also has a lot of the distancing vibes that I tend to look for from scum.

I don't know what Tenshii was thinking when he townread Prohawk but it almost seems like when Tenshii backed off, Prohawk did too. This is beneficial for him as scum to townread a townie a backed off of him precisely

for

backing off of him.

The interaction basically went like this:
Tenshii: <backs off>
Prohawk: "oh look, he backed off despite me being an easy mislynch, he must be town!"

That's not a scum to scum interaction. That's scum being relieved that town second-guessed their read on him.

Jaack, look - I get why you might think Prohawk and Tenshii were scum but I like to think I'm fairly readable guy as town. We worked together decently well in mhsmith's game. I think you are town and right about Prohawk, work with me here.

[Creature]

Votecount 2.5

Votecount 2.5

[1] Jaack - ProHawk
[2] Something_Smart - Gamma Emerald, Dunhallym
[0] Gamma Emerald
[0] BlackVoid
[2] ProHawk - Jaack, Something_Smart
[1] Dunhallym - BlackVoid
[0] ZZZX

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: ZZZX

7 players are alive and 4 votes is needed to reach majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-12-18 15:00:00)

[Jaack]

I'm on mobile, so I'm not going to 'formalize' my case this moment, but the gist of it is that they scumread each other right from the get go but have slowly devolved into town reads overtime. In a game where bussing is bad, that's kinda what I'd expect from scum.

I agree that bussing is bad. I think you should look at Prohawk/Dunhallym interactions. Each has the other as town for inexplicable reasons. Dun says that Prohawk is town but that there is a potential link to my slot. In other words, she doesn't want to lynch Prohawk, but if he does get lynched, she's setting up to go after me next. Their early play also has a lot of the distancing vibes that I tend to look for from scum.

I don't know what Tenshii was thinking when he townread Prohawk but it almost seems like when Tenshii backed off, Prohawk did too. This is beneficial for him as scum to townread a townie a backed off of him precisely

for

backing off of him.

The interaction basically went like this:
Tenshii: <backs off>
Prohawk: "oh look, he backed off despite me being an easy mislynch, he must be town!"

That's not a scum to scum interaction. That's scum being relieved that town second-guessed their read on him.

Jaack, look - I get why you might think Prohawk and Tenshii were scum but I like to think I'm fairly readable guy as town. We worked together decently well in mhsmith's game. I think you are town and right about Prohawk, work with me here.

I'm definitely willing to consider Dunhallym after ProHawk scumflip. I sitll think that Tenshii's interactions with ProHawk look bad, but I have an open mind.

[Something_Smart]

Jaack is my scum-read, and is likely scum. He is setting up his endgame by claiming I am scum because of scum-team matrix associatives before flips.

That's exactly what you're doing though.

He isn't lying scum because he is wrong, he is lying scum because he is using the lie to make me look bad.

No he isn't? He admitted that his case was weakened by his error (not lie!) but also that it brought up a new point.
Which is a valid point. Why didn't you ever call him out on the fact that he was wrong about you scumreading Tenshii?

[BlackVoid]

I can get Jaack at this point but can you explain gamma and ZZZZX ?

Sure.

ZZZX

1. My initial read there was gut. He just seemed very present in the game and looked like he was trying to move the game forward in a way that might be a bit hard for scum to fake naturally. His plan in 20 and 39 is an example of that. I don't agree with him but I got the impression that he's looking for ways to solve the game.
2. The townread on Prohawk despite breaking his plan shows that he's not just throwing out surface-level accusations but looking deeper into motivations. In the early game, it's hard to scum to make up convincing scumreads before people have settled into the game. Prohawk did something that ZZZX could have easily pushed on. But instead of going "Damn it Prohawk, you ruined my plan!" and using it as an excuse to have an early scumread, he looks deeper to analyze why scum would out their picks first, concludes that they wouldn't, and townreads Prohawk for it.
3. I agree with something_smart that 318 was genuine. I didn't find his surprise to be fake. I see it as a minor towntell since mafia have daytalk so they would have discussed this and planned accordingly.

Gamma

1. The scumread on Prohawk in 64 gives me slight townvibes because firstly I agree, and secondly, he doesn't seem able to explain it well. Early on in the game, he's taking initiative to develop reads even if he can't articulate them which I think scum is less likely to do.
2. I disagree with this scumread on Jaack in 102 but I understand where Gamma is coming from and it's actually a good point. I don't think what Jaack pointed out about Jin in 94 was alignment-indicative.
3. I agree with his 118 that your push on ArcAngel9 wasn't alignment-indcative and I liked that he pointed it out. I had been mildly scumreading your posts at that point.
4. Overall feel for Gamma is that the things he's pushing are stuff I can easily follow and understand and probably would have said if I was in the game. 160 is another post that makes sense to me and I did wonder what Arc was going on about there.
5. Although I don't agree with this point in 218, I don't really see the scum motive in trying to confirm Tenshii now I replaced in and know that it's a town slot.
6. I'm not sure I understand his Prohawk townread in 375 but given Prohawk is a potential lynch, I think if Gamma was scum, he'd be encouraging it rather than townreading Prohawk after Prohawk's intense desire to lynch him. It feels like an honestly wrong read (Gamma can't be scum with Prohawk so that option is out).

[BlackVoid]

BlackVoid writing Jaack, Gamma and ZZZX off as town makes me more than a little uncomfortable, as those are my townreads too so I wonder if he's either trying to appeal to me or keep me as a townbeard to protect his buddy Gamma.

Why does it make you uncomfortable? Why are you voting Prohawk if you Gamma and I are partners?