Mini 1826: The Purge - Game Over

[kraska77]

every kraska post hurts me more and more

are you actually maf?

kindly f off

[MagnaofIllusion]

Ok, so going back to things besides that happened this weekend –

I note Kraska has on several occasions avoided explaining reads. She offered a Not Chara as scum read and when questioned by multiple players had this to respond with – 698. There is no reasoning there. Frankly given the amount of times she has accused me of lack of content and fluff her inability to justify why she his scum-reading someone trips my scumdar . Especially when she avoids detailing reads herself (on Not Chara as scum) but expects others to explain their own reads (see 725). And then at 741 she just drops the read on Not Chara.


--

edit: Magna, shos is obviously gambling on the very high chance that two town players will coincidentally shoot the same mafioso.
could we ignore shos for the the moment? i'm more concerned with the players sitting back and either asking to be shot or asking who they'll be shooting.

So why are you concerned about players asking to be shot? Do you think there is any Pro-Scum motivation in doing so?

Also Not Chara I’m interested in your read on Kraska given the distaste you apparently have for posts that call people scummy that don’t provide reasons. I direct you to 668 as a prime example. Why no questions / attacks on kraska for posts like that?

--

Vedith is a townread of mine.

@Shos

– why don’t you elaborate on the reasons for said Town read. I’d be very interest in posts that you thought were direct examples of Town play.

Also, I’d like you to specify exactly when your scum read on me actually developed. Because as of 673 and 674 you didn’t include me in your “Should be shot” list and were hoping to “convince” me of your plan. Those posts don’t show a scum read of me at all. And as of 715 again no mention that I should be shot (you do actively mention pisskop again).

Alright, I'm seeing that people have difficulty getting to the right conclusion from the same results, so as the certified mathematician here, I'll elaborate:

There are two "plans" as of now:
1. Everyone shoot whoever they wish, or don't shoot
2. 1 player is stranded, the other 12 are divided to 6s, where 1 pack of 6 shoot the other pack of 6, and the other pack of 6 blockades.

If we just randomize everything, plan 1 gives

• 1.7 scum death
  
• 8.4 town deaths

If we randomize the stranded and 6s, plan 2 gives

• 2.07 town deaths
  
• 0.38 Strongman deaths
  
• still unknown rest-of-scum deaths

to that, both plans can add the value of scumhunting, which would probably factor results the same so it doesn't matter much.

as for the ratio of town death/scum death, if we don't count the rest-of-scum deaths results favor the first plan, with 4.9 town/scum death over 5.4. But look at the absolute numbers.
on average, more than 8 townies die N1 with plan 1. If we get LUCKY, we get to a 3p lylo.

A titbit of bad luck would give us instant loss.

I need to get some things done, then if I manage I might make my own code to calculate the EV of the scum deaths in my plan and prove it is better.

So I quoted this post to point out two things I don’t want lost in the shuffle –

1. The bolded Appeal to Fear (oh god it could be over Night 1) doesn’t represent any reality of the game state. Releo’s “All Town shoots randomly” isn’t a plan. It’s simply a calculation to show that Town just each privately using a random number generator will, on average, produce superior results to Shos’s plan. Town isn’t all going to shoot randomly. So any “Oh god it could be over N1” isn’t relevant to the game-state and is just an Appeal to Fear in an attempt to get his Mafia-friendly plan to appear viable.

2. I’ve stated this many times but it bears repeating – Shos keeps mentioning the “still unknown rest-of-scum deaths” whenever he’s attacking the figures which doesn’t apply under his plan. The only scum who can die in the “Line up 6 players to each individually shoot 6 other players” plan is the Strongman. And only if he isn’t Stranded (this player is not shot under Shos’s plan) or a Shooter. Any other scum in the “Going to be Shot” pool can just barricade themselves and thus not die. So it is a fallacy to say that the 0.38 scum dead under his plan can rise.

3. Note that he never followed through on his own EV calculation.

[PeregrineV]

2 things:

1- Like, I would be REALLY pissed if MoI (of all) is the one stranded tonight!

2- That shos logic borders on a LAL PL on it's own. SK !=Town, and with another SK in play it certainly merits a totally different style of play.

Now

I

have seen Town!MoI in action, and I can confirm his play here is very likely his town play

. In fact, I'm almost certain this is Town!MoI. Seriously, if I had ELEVEN dayvig shots in line, I'd be gunning you all down one bu one until it's just me and him standing, and if the game still doesn't end THEN and ONLY THEN will I be convinced otherwise.

Which games were those?

[PeregrineV]

@Not_Chara: Nex time, say pedit instead of edit. You are scaring people

However, MOI made a good point though. Shos' logic feels flipped-flop.

I will wait for PereV before fliiping.

And 11 pm. Good night.

What do you want to know?

[kraska77]

Doesn't change the fact that this is what you did and this is why I couldn't wrap my head around notchara's reads on you and vedith being polar

the string of posts in my iso , starting with me asking chara to explain their reads on vedith and nos, and ending with this post ^ should make it clear why i found notchara's early reads dubious, moi, and why i dropped my read on them

[MagnaofIllusion]

the string of posts in my iso , starting with me asking chara to explain their reads on vedith and nos, and ending with this post ^ should make it clear why i found notchara's early reads dubious, moi, and why i dropped my read on them

Why, if reading ISO should be the standard for determining why reads exist, did you ask Not Chara to explain reads instead of looking through her ISO yourself?

[kraska77]

bc they didnt explain them before i asked

[Not Chara]

because i hadn't explained them in my posts yet.
this is a strange question, Illusion.

pedit: oh, i was late.

[MagnaofIllusion]

bc they didnt explain them before i asked

Nah. If you had explained your reads better people wouldn't have asked you to explain them. So that explanation doesn't pass muster.

[kraska77]

what are you even talking about...
you asked me why i thought nc was scum and why i later dropped the read
i said i asked them to explain the reads i found dubious
and then didnt feel they were scum anymore

like...what's your issue with any of this

[Not Chara]

oh, right.
UNVOTE: kraska
will look for a better vote when i have time.

[MagnaofIllusion]

what are you even talking about...
you asked me why i thought nc was scum and why i later dropped the read
i said i asked them to explain the reads i found dubious
and then didnt feel they were scum anymore

like...what's your issue with any of this

Nope you are attempting to shortcut the issue. I'll point you towards this post again ...

I note Kraska has on several occasions avoided explaining reads. She offered a Not Chara as scum read and when questioned by multiple players had this to respond with – 698. There is no reasoning there. Frankly given the amount of times she has accused me of lack of content and fluff her inability to justify why she his scum-reading someone trips my scumdar . Especially when she avoids detailing reads herself (on Not Chara as scum) but expects others to explain their own reads (see 725). And then at 741 she just drops the read on Not Chara.

Way back around 698 people asked you about your claimed Not Chara read. You ignored all those requests as I pointed out above. You giving a fluff "I found her early reads dubious" on this page doesn't explain away why you ignored multiple requests back then.

My issue with the way you is that I think you aren't actually scum-hunting but fabricating fluff reads.

[kraska77]

Way back around 698 people asked you about your claimed Not Chara read. You ignored all those requests as I pointed out above. You giving a fluff "I found her early reads dubious" on this page doesn't explain away why you ignored multiple requests back then.

My issue with the way you is that I think you aren't actually scum-hunting but fabricating fluff reads

it's not a fluff read
and when notchara agrees with me that theres no reason to tr nos after my questioning, that only proves that my doubts were in place

so what if i ignored earlier requests? i wasnt gonna bother explaining shit to pisskop at the time bc it didnt look like he was reading any of my posts anyway

[shos]

Moi, ressonding to your post about my setup analysis:
0.38 chance to get the SM, yes.
2.07 average deaths of town, yes.
Only SM can die - no. Because if you assume more than 1 death, that means scum goons shoot and not barricade [because no townie can kill any townie]. So it is either 0.38 scum deaths along with 1 town death +town gains a lot of info OR 2.07 town deaths and [0.38+average goon deaths] scum deaths.

In either cases, it is not inferior to your noplan plan, even if you completely dismiss the informationtown gains by seeing the flips.
"Appeal to fear" is really legit when you compute an average town death of 8.5. After a single night.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Only SM can die - no. Because if you assume more than 1 death, that means scum goons shoot and not barricade [because no townie can kill any townie]. So it is either 0.38 scum deaths along with 1 town death +town gains a lot of info OR 2.07 town deaths and [0.38+average goon deaths] scum deaths.

Nope. The obvious fault in the logic you are trying to show here is assuming the Goons are not picked in the shooters.

That's not a given at all.

Thus your conclusion is garbage out because of the garbage in.

Care to try again?

[shos]

No it is not garbage, it is a nonnegligible chance which has to be considered when you make the computation.

[shos]

Meanwhile I return to my earlier point - on the game I modded, you spotted a scumslip and shot as you pleased, and next day you used it to lead a scumlynch (dom). So yes, you were scumhunting. I seenone of that here. What I see is a scum active lurker who suddenly pops up with loads of words in the MOMENT a titbit of traction is formed against him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Meanwhile I return to my earlier point - on the game I modded, you spotted a scumslip and shot as you pleased, and next day you used it to lead a scumlynch (dom). So yes, you were scumhunting. I seenone of that here. What I see is a scum active lurker who suddenly pops up with loads of words in the MOMENT a titbit of traction is formed against him.

Lol. Active lurker? That's funny Shos.

[Realeo]

What do you want to know?

A bare minimum of scumlist with why.

[Realeo]

No it is not garbage, it is a nonnegligible chance which has to be considered when you make the computation.

Answer my question, why will scum shoot when being shot at. When scum is being shot at, they will 100% barricade.

[Persivul]

Votecount 1.9

shos (3) - nosferatu, magna, almost
realeo (1) - vedith
pisskop (1) - perev
nosferatu (1) - kuroi
perev (1) - realeo
magna (2) - pisskop, shos
No Strand (1) - kraska

Not voting (3) - shaddow, lane, chara

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to strand.

(expired on 2016-09-10 06:30:00) remain until day end

[lane0168]

Just finished up with my easy duties elsewhere. Will be back tomorrow. I'm excited though. Skimming this page looks like we came around to the hunt scum plan... Kind of? I'll do a quick read now

[lane0168]

I don't care being stranded as long as someone shoots pisskop.
lane, do you not have any reads? I certainly have them, I don't see why you'd call it wasting a day if you do too.

Could you explain to me how someone who says " i don't care what you say " goes fine with you and someone who actually tries to get something protown done gets your vote?

All those who say I am wasting your time, that is bullshit. If you wanted to say anything regarding your scumreads, you'd do that. you are the one wasting your time. I have a discussion here with realeo and 50. you can scumhunt independently, but you don't. same goes for pisskop and possibly others. blaming me for that you don't do shit in this game is a fallacy.

I've found a hole in the other plan which makes it autolose so we can disregard that.

~~~

If we don't go by the original plan, I put my money on a N1 lose for town.

Yes I have reads. They are about 1% as strong as they could be had we spent our time in scum hunting. That's my point. And they're more likely to be completely wrong with minimal stuff to go off of. You should understand that.

And what's with the fear mongering of that last line. I'd guarantee it wouldn't be a night 1 loss. I don't think the town sucks that bad

[lane0168]

VOTE: no lynch/strand/whatdver
If you're going to misshoot town atleast don't deprive them of their shot
@shos shoot a50 with me...I don't think pisskop is scum here

This should be killed right after Shos ...

do u have anything useful to add to the game ?

Irony: level 99

[pisskop]

Lane.

Be my guiding light here.