Heh. It's late, i should've gone 2 bed hours ago, my main has dozens of games that i should catch up in, but this game currently holds my attention, as it is clear we're nearing the end.
i believe Xyl thusfar has been a bit more scummy than Laz/Pyro. Pyro is also a very easy mislynch (i'd know; i helped mislynch him in his first game.
), tho, so this might be an attempt at anti-bias. (Bcause he's so scummy as town, subconciously, i might b more cautious in my opinions of him, discarding scummy play.)
i will again be looking at the bandwagons that i posted earlier, observing where they were. i will then look at them in isolation.
My largest concerns:
-Xyl's scum, bing bussed by Cateraction. Cateraction is waiting 4 some1 2 vote 4 Pyro, thereby allowing a change in vote 4 a win.
-Cateraction and Pyromaniac r both scum. They voted together and r hoping 4 a mislynch right now 4 a win.
Those 2 keep me from voting either. Like i said earlier, a power role in 1 mafia faction, but not the other-->Concerning.
Dizzy/Scot is almost confirmed town.
i am town.
Cateraction, Xyl, and Pyro r all that is left. There r only a few possibilities:
1: All 3 r scum. Two r Brooklyn, 1 is Bronx. Lylo.
Pyro and Cateraction r Brooklyn, trying 2 get rid of the Bronx. This is due to Xyl's meta of never bussing partners, making a Pyro-Xyl pairing impossible.
From this, Cateraction can b eliminated as a possible member of the Bronx mafia. He still can b Brooklyn, tho.
2: Two r scum. 1 Brooklyn, 1 Bronx, making the Bronx Mafia faction (of 2 goons so far) larger.
We have a ml today. Xyl/Pyro die. If correct, then it will b down 2 the other 2, and which is decided upon as the last member of the other mafia faction. If wrong and the pro-town player of the 3 is lynched, then either the scum cross-shoot, or we r left in a Prisoner's Dilemma situation.
3: Two r scum. 2 Brooklyn. Despite having a power role, they have an extra member. Lylo, if tru, but this is extremely doubtful.
4: One is scum. A member of the Brooklyn mafia. We have a guaranteed win.
1 is my largest concern of all. Three is extremely doubtful, but the possibility exists.
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Now, 2 examine the bandwagons, see which pairing is made most likely:
Vote count analysis here shows Xyl-Rhinox pairings that I mentioned earlier. It also shows a possible reason for Zito's death, Zito's vote on Laz.
inHimshallibe: 5 (sam.samhorn, ConsonantM, lazarusmoth, cateraction, xRECKONERx)
Laz and Cat voted together, here.
inHimshallibe: 5 (sam.samhorn, ConsonantM, lazarusmoth, cateraction, xRECKONERx)
xRECKONERx: 3 (inHimshallibe, Rhinox, Xylthixlm)
Again, the 2 vote 2gether, but so do Rhinox and Xyl.
lazarusmoth: 1 (inHimshallibe)
Again, inHim died that night.
Phoebus: 3 (sam.samhorn, cateraction, lazarusmoth)
Cateraction and Laz vote 2gether again.
There is one instance, however, where they break the pattern:
Xylthixlm: 4 (xRECKONERx, Phoebus, inHimshallibe, cateraction)
inHimshallibe: 2 (lazarusmoth, Xylthixlm)
xRECKONERx: 1 (Rhinox)
Xyl no longer is with Rhinox, and cateraction no longer with Laz.
Another inconsistency is the fact that Zito and inHim both had at least some suspicion on them yet were NK'd...and had votes on Laz.
Yet i was not.
However, given the evidence in front of me, if 2 alive r Brooklyn, Laz-Cat would definitely seem to fit the pattern.
On the other hand, tho, Cateraction has never received any serious attention from Xyl, 2 my knowledge, which means that Xyl could b partners with Cateraction.
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To sum it up,
-My current belief is in a Laz/Pyro-Cateraction scum team. About 40% on this.
-If wrong, then the next most probable scenario is Xyl is a lone scum member. About 30% on this.
-At third, is a Cateraction-Xyl possible scum team, 20% on this.
-At a last fourth is the least likely, as this would b suicidal: Laz/Pyro is the last scum, with no scum partner. Instant-town-win, very doubtful. Only 10% on this.
-And due to the 20% chance of the third, I will not b voting 4 Pyro, despite Pyro bing my top suspect.
