Mini 149: Open Role Mafia - Game Over

[Jaguar]

Hey all. I'll

random vote: Cubsfan

.

[Jaguar]

Hey everyone. My apologies for my absence. The holidays really wreaked havoc on my free time.

Anyhoo, I see that we have a bona fide bandwagon going, although I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning.

As for the open role concept, I think that the power townie roles are indeed prime targets for scum, unless they are scum. This certainly is a different outlook on the game and I'm not sure that we can clear people just because they are the cop, doc, etcetera, but that really would give scum the upper hand. Is it possible that in this game there are only two scum in the mafie to balance things out? Or perhaps only a serial killer?

Tough call. Oh and

unvote: cubsfan

since it was random anyways

[Jaguar]

Unless the town also has some hidden roles, I am thinking that the mafia has a serious advantage over us, but either way, I don't know that revealing the results is going to help us any. Just because he's a cop, doesn't mean he can't be scum and as such could be giving us wrong information. Unless the cop has found scum, I don't think it's necessary to reveal investigation results yet.

As for scummy-ness, Cubs hasn't shown up in a while! Other than that, I am completely clueless when it comes to scummy vibes. Lazarus has a bit of a power role, but it doesn't seem to be overly useful unless Lazarus has additional information that would help him make a decision on preventing a lynch.

[Jaguar]

Happy New Year everyone. Now on with the game.

Could Dourgrim's not posting be another case of the holidays? Hopefully he drops by soon.

As for Cubs, just two lines? Come one. We need more than that. You don't show up for days and come here to post two lines about HM not revealing his results.

MeMe, I'm not sure about controversial vote, but I'm all for getting the game moving.

vote: Lazarusmoth

.

[Jaguar]

I don't think we can make any assumptions based on the role breakdown since we don't know what methods were used to assign roles. It could be that Speedy intentionally picked two or three roles to be the mafia so the game would be balanced (in which case I doubt the Actor would be mafia, it's an odd role to use anyway, since it's almost completely useless), or it could be done like mathcam's games where everyone is assigned a role, and then the mafia are assigned randomly.

I find this odd. Why couldn’t MeMe be scum? As a matter of fact, if there are no hidden pro-town roles, I would expect the mafia to have at least one player that is less powerful in game to balance things out, especially if Speedy assigned the mafia to particular roles beforehand. I think this makes MeMe and Stewie both no less innocent than the rest of us. And why only clear MeMe. Stewie also has a role with restrictions.

It also appears that Mole is trying to get in really tight with the cop. Are you trying to avoid being investigated?

Would the people against HM revealing feel differently if he survives until tomorrow and reports that he has two useful investigations?

If both investigatees are still alive, and if we don’t hit scum with our lynch today, we have one of the following situations:
1. Out of the 9 alive, there will be two innocents and 3/7 scum (assuming a regular mini setup with one mafia consisting of three scum).
2. If the investigation comes up guilty, we lynch the guilty party, no questions asked, but I don’t think we should reveal the innocent.

In both instances, we’ll likely wake up day 3 with only 5 of us left alive. Out of those five, there are either three scum (game over) or two scum alive. I think that if we don’t lynch scum today and HM does not investigate scum tomorrow, we may want to know who the two innocents are to narrow down our scum choices as we’ll have to lynch scum on day 2.

Of course, all this can be thrown into the water if the set-up does not include three mafia, but instead has two mafia or a single serial killer.

With this being “Open Role” mafia as Malaprop pointed out, I don’t think there will be too many hidden pro-town roles at all, certainly not a doc or cop hidden as we do have a doc, nurse, cop and sherrif already in this town. The only hidden pro-town role that I could possible see is a group of masons.

Unvote: Lazarusmoth

at this time. I don't think it would be a bad lynch, as has been pointed out, if he's scum, his role could be really bad for the town, but he has said that he wouldn't use his ability.

I'll

vote: Mole

at this time.

[Jaguar]

Wow. I completely missed that. Are we ever in a need to lynch scum now!

[Jaguar]

I'll

unvote: mole

at this time. I'd like to hear from mlaker as well.

[Jaguar]

I know my arguments weren't overly strong, but I don't have much more to go on than that, especially on a day 1.

I can certainly see your points concerning revealing results, but I think we should wait until day 2 at least. Since HM didn't get a guilty result, it's not really going to help us much, unless we are actually in the process of lynching that person.

If we do indeed have a SK and mafia on our hands, we are going to be in deep trouble if we don't lynch scum tomorrow.

As for Cubsfan, I know he's not posted much in another game he's in. Perhaps a prod would not be out of line? He now has two accounts though, as a result of some problems with the original one, and it looks like he's using the newer one to post in the other game.

[Jaguar]

I never said my arguments were great. I just felt that Mole was trying to avoid getting investigated by the cop. It's a feeling, nothing concrete, but since this is day 1, it's about as good as it's going to get.

I find it funny that Mathcam first says that even though the arguments aren't strong, they are the best to go on at this time, then places a vote on Mole (by that time I had already unvoted). Now he thinks there really was nothing to my arguments (I never denied that) and unvotes and thinks I'm scummy.

I think I'll

vote: Mathcam

.

[Jaguar]

Longish post warning...

I don't think we can make any assumptions based on the role breakdown since we don't know what methods were used to assign roles. It could be that Speedy intentionally picked two or three roles to be the mafia so the game would be balanced (in which case I doubt the Actor would be mafia, it's an odd role to use anyway, since it's almost completely useless), or it could be done like mathcam's games where everyone is assigned a role, and then the mafia are assigned randomly.

I find this odd. Why couldn’t MeMe be scum? As a matter of fact, if there are no hidden pro-town roles, I would expect the mafia to have at least one player that is less powerful in game to balance things out, especially if Speedy assigned the mafia to particular roles beforehand. I think this makes MeMe and Stewie both no less innocent than the rest of us. And why only clear MeMe. Stewie also has a role with restrictions.

It also appears that Mole is trying to get in really tight with the cop. Are you trying to avoid being investigated?

I do in fact base my vote on this later in the post, but unvote before Mathcam's following post:

Okay, my current best guess is mole. I think Xanthe made a somewhat decent point concerning mole, though I'll admit it's not extremely strong. This would be easier with a lot more people to choose from. I find it hard to be suspicious of the more active players, for the simple reason that if we lynch them, there'll be no one talking at all.

He does go on to say that he meant Jaguar instead of Xanthe and then proceeds to vote Mole later.

I know my arguments weren't overly strong, but I don't have much more to go on than that, especially on a day 1.

Ok, so no great overwhelming evidence against Mole, but the best I can do on day 1. Mathcam agrees in his next post:

Jaguar, I wasn't trying to come off as saying "Jaguar's arguments were really weak." In fact, quite to the contrary, I was trying to say "Jaguar's arguments, while not incredibly strong, are significantly better than nothing."

Vote: Mole.

Then Cam goes on to say he’s surprised Mole hasn’t responded to anything in another post.

In another post he still likes his Mole vote. (post 123) And in post 127 he suddenly thinks there’s nothing to the vote? There was nothing substantially written between post 123 and 127 and if he’s still happy in 123, I would assume that he had reviewed everything and found nothing wrong with his vote. And in that post he starts says the following:

One wonders if this doesn't make jaguar a little more suspicious.

Why does it make me more suspicious. Not once did I say I had great arguments, just the best ones I had available at the time. And Cam agreed with me, saying that they were the best to go on for day 1. Then Mathcam recants the statement and I’m more suspicious?

I wasn’t somewhat defensive, I just agreed that they weren’t the strongest.

And Stewie, how is my vote opportunistic. I can understand that Mole’s vote is opportunistic, as he put the second to last vote on, but I retaliated to Mathcam’s arguments and find that he is the most suspicious of the lot at the moment.

[Jaguar]

Well, it looks like we're not getting much of anywhere at the moment.

I forgot that Mathcam joined after I had already unvoted Mole, so a good point made.

As for me unvoting mole, mainly because it wasn't going anywhere at the time. The arguments only drew one or two comments and none of them felt they were enough to warrant a vote and besides, as I admitted, the arguments weren't overly strong.

Mathcam, I see your point for unvoting mole, especially since I too unvoted him. I just thought that the post in which you unvoted him was a bit weird.

And MeMe, Cam, Xanthe, Etc, I do agree that Vikingfan's actions are arousing my suspicions as well, I am reluctant to lynch him because he is the doc. If he's not scum, we're taking care of a kill for the scum. Although on the flip side, why would scum have targeted the nurse instead of the doc on night 1, so more arguments that because he's alive he has to be scum.

At this time, I'll take the heat off Mathcam. I also want to hear from Malaprop. He's really been laying low this game. Perhaps a vote will flush him out? (And yes, this vote is based on nothing more than absence. No decent, or even weak, arguments here. )

unvote: Mathcam

,

vote: Malaprop

[Jaguar]

unvote: Malaprop

.

I'm still wondering why people think that there are hidden roles other than the scum? This is supposed to be "Open role" mafia, isn't it? The title implies that all the roles are known before hand, including who has them, with the exception of the scum.

The above is the main reason why I think it's a bad idea to lynch vikingfan, because if we do, we can count on no protection at all. Yes, there is always the chance that he is scum, but to lynch the doc on day one would be nuts, especially since we'd be taking care of an important kill for the scum if the doc is not scum at all.

[Jaguar]

Hhhm. That puts a different spin on things since I received exactly what is in the header post as my role. Nothing extra at all.

[Jaguar]

I do see what HM is saying though about the Jaguar lynch. Jaguar said she had no secret ability and has no real role according to the OM. Any thoughts as to whether this is a good line of action to take?

It's already been pointed out that the players who denied a secret role may have been doing so to mislead the Mafia into targetting the wrong people. And although Jaguar has been singled out, didn't Stewie say the same thing? Anyhow, even if it were known beyond doubt that she has no special role, I don't think "Either Jaguar is scum, or she's useless, so it's a safe lynch" is a sound argument. No townie is useless; they have their voice and their vote to contribute even if they have no special powers.

You took the words out of my mouth Just because I'm a townie doesn't make me dispensable.

With all that has been said on the issue of hidden roles versus open roles, I think I am less hesitant to lynch the doc and as such I'll add my vote to the vikingfan bandwagon.

vote: Vikingfan

[Jaguar]

Alright, I suppose I'm happy to let the doc live for another day (that's an amusing sentence to write), and going after lurker-extraordinate and MeMe-suggested Malaprop. We'll just have to be careful about letting viking off the hook in the future. And if viking turns out to be scum, I've got a whole lotta FOSes stored up here for the people who supported him so vigorously.

But you didn't unvote Vikingfan nor voted Malaprop. Am I missing something here?

We are going after viking now for similar reasons as to why we were going after cam earlier. he just asked for thoughts on the idea, not implying that is was the right course of action. Pretty much repeated what HM said and asked if it was right or wrong. Unless I'm missing something here, if we are going to persecute someone because of the "let's lynch jaguar because she's useless" idea, it shold be HM and not viking.'

But maybe I'm being a bit biased here. I really don't want to be without a doc so early in the game.

I simply picked vikingfan because he was certainly more vocal and seems to have drawn the suspicions of people for reasons other than his vote on me for those reasons. In addition, there were already people voting for him, so I felt that my vote would do more good (or harm) on him than on HM.

[Jaguar]

Well, so far no word, and he has been prodded. I'll leave Meme the last vote though

Although if we're so sure he's just a plain townie, why are we lynching him? For not being here?

[Jaguar]

I thought that night one they both targeted the same person.

zedmango the Nurse, just a nurse, stabbed and shot on night 1.

MeMe, does this change your opinion of Stewie at all?

Yay for the SK getting a mafia scum although we are in dire straights here. 8 alive with possibly as much as three scum remaining in two separate killing groups

HairyMezican, any luck in finding scum? Don't reveal your innocent result though.

[Jaguar]

MeMe, I thought it was something like that, but I did want to point out that both parties targeted the nurse on night 1.

As for a vote, I won't place it yet, as I do want to hear from HM.

Mod

can we get a prod on him?

[Jaguar]

Well, I hope that Stewie was indeed scum, otherwise we're in dire straights. Although the SK may be able to help us out again if we just lynched town.

[Jaguar]

Hhm. No stabbing death last night. I was hoping that the SK could rid us of one more scum, but that didn't happen.

So Cubs and Lazarus Moth are scummy? We need to reduce the mafia by one or else the town is pretty much doomed. Since we don't know if both are mafia or one is mafia and the other the SK, any ideas as to which one to lynch?

[Jaguar]

Hhm. No stabbing death last night. I was hoping that the SK could rid us of one more scum, but that didn't happen.

So Cubs and Lazarus Moth are scummy? We need to reduce the mafia by one or else the town is pretty much doomed. Since we don't know if both are mafia or one is mafia and the other the SK, any ideas as to which one to lynch?

They can't both be Mafia, surely? That would make 4 Mafia plus an SK.

Woops. For some reason I thought that we had only managed to get rid of one scum. I forgot that the SK hit mafia on the night before last. SO HM is saying that he got two guilty results two nights in a row and these would have to be the last two scummy people. I guess we can try that theory by lynching either Laz or Cubs today. Seeing as there should only be one mafia scum and one SK scum left, the day won't be over if we do lynch incorrectly.

Lazarus' post really makes no sense. Just because he had a vote on Stewie doesn't mean he can't be the SK. Lynching Stewie would have been good for the SK and one step closer to a win. Besides, scum have often tried to dissuade people from voting for them because they were on another scum's bandwagon. It's a known tactic.

I'm just wondering why HM wouldn't have put a vote on either player. It is three to lynch and as the cop, you need to stand behind your words. If you've found them both guilty and there is no question of your sanity (assuming you are not scum), why not put the first vote on. You've got a good reason.

[Jaguar]

And surprisingly (not), both people accused by HM have voted for him.

I am very much of the opinion that we are better off lynching a fingered man to try to ascertain the alignment of the cop than to lynch the cop. What have we to lose? If we lynch Cubs and find he is innocent, we know HM is guilty and we lynch him tomorrow, either that or the other remaining scum targets HM as HM likely still has investigative abilities.

It looks like Xanthe is thinking along the same lines I am, so I will put the second vote on Cubs and leave the lynching vote to Laz (in a change of heart) or Xanthe.

vote: Cubsfan4ever

[Jaguar]

I have a busy day ahead of me, but I'm postinjg to say that I'll be taking a good look at both of you.

It doesn't help that HM is still alive this morning, but that could have been a smart move on Laz's part.

[Jaguar]

Sorry guys, today just flew by. HM is putting up the better arguments so far though. All Laz can say is I'm not scum, he is.

HM has a few things going for him that Laz doesn't. He got two scum with investigations. Nights 2 and 3. On night two he investigated Laz and night 3 Cubs. Why would he take the chance and give us two scummy results? That only works against him with one SK and one mafia remaining.

HM being alive is a clever ploy indeed, regardless of which one of you is scum. If Laz is scum, he had no choice and if HM is scum, well, you can't really kill yourself now, can you.

I'll let this stew a bit more and hope to have a vote in the next day or two.

[Jaguar]

I am leaning towards one person at the moment.

HM: voted for LM on day 1 and I can see why he would have investigated LM night 2, with all the conversations going on. He had an innocent investigation and in discussion it should be noted that Cubsfan, Stewie and LM were all against reveal (including MeMe and myself). Mole never voiced an opinion. HM didn't talk much day 2 and it could indeed have been a smart gamble to finger LM after the wagon and case against Stewie had already been made. Of course, having investigated MeMe night 1 is indeed convenient, but not something that I would doubt. I know how devious she is when she is scum and if I were a cop I'd likely have picked her as my night 1 investigation as well.

Also interesting to note is that Stewie, LM and mole mever voted for the same person at once. The moment Stewie unvoted (I believe Matchcam), LM voted Mathcam. Interesting behaviour to say the least.

LM: Came out with his "press conference", saying he wasn't going to be using his powers, and true to his word, he hasn't. Of course, there wasn't much reason to use it. If he had used it to prevent a lynch on Stewie, that would have triggered some interesting discussion and likely would have seen him lynched instead on day 2... It obviously was not in his best interest doubly so because HM had fingered him as scum.

Day 3: HM has a second guilty result, on Cubsfan this time. Why finger a second person if he was scum? We could easily have lynched Laz instead of Cubs, but didn't. HM did start the voting with one on Cubs and we did follow, but he could not have known that we would have followed his second result instead of his first. And he never once faltered in saying who was scum and even he didn't care if it was Laz or Cubs who would get the axe.

Lazarus Moth, as you can see, I am very tempted to vote for you at this time. If HM is indeed the scum, he has played brilliantly.

Right now I only have a few points against him and they are minor, one of which is that we appear to have two sane cops, but this may have been put in as a safety feature by the mod because of the open roles.

LM has been acting a bit strange and worse, HM, a confirmed sane cop, who fingered at least one person correctly, has pointed the finger at LM on day 2. Why finger an innocent when you don't know if you are going to get a guilty result the next night to prevent the lynch of that innocent to make your story more believable.

Since we'll have to wait until Monday for the final scene anyways, I'm going to post this without my vote, but rest assured that unless something drastically changes my mind, I will put my vote on Lazarus Moth.

[Jaguar]

I was hoping to get both remaining players to respond to my post. If I don't hear from them, I'll vote by Wednesday sometime.

[Jaguar]

Well, Here goes...

vote: Lazarusmoth

.

Let's hope I am right.

[Jaguar]

Yes, it was pretty clear, but I did want to give Laz a chance to respond to my allegations. And I've been so busy the last week, that time just kinda slipped by