Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over

[Krazy]

Hello all

Unvote

for now until I get a chance to read the thread

[Krazy]

I'm not too far from a vote but let's see if there's some questions and observations I'd like to make first. Please bear with me here, some of these may have been addressed elsewhere, but even if they have they might do well to be addressed again:

DRK, you have said:

Let's not lynch bgg today. I think he's town. Claiming VT early is stupid, not scummy.

Is this still your opinion of bgg and his actions?

Xine:

I know this was a while ago (page 2 or so), but you have said:

Actually it does, I see him(?) [redacted] as the most obv town player so far.

Why did you at that point in the game see [redacted] as the "most obv town player"?

I would also like to comment on the reaction to Xine's vote for Neruz. Xine said:

Neruz has declared willingness to lynch someone he believes to be town to remove an annoying player.

In this quote, Neruz does not actually imply or suggest that Neruz has said he believes bgg to be town; he only confirms what Neruz has actually said, which is that Neruz would be willing to lynch bgg even if he had "proof" he was town.

It seems like some of the votes for Xine are based on his post here and the belief that he said that Neruz thought bgg was innocent. Is that correct?

P.S. the site is being a bit wonky so sorry if there is a double post.

[Krazy]

Llamarble, I'm having a really hard time following your logic on Neruz.

You first say:

Neruz thinking "Is bgg softclaiming??" when bgg has already hardclaimed seems very odd to me as well.

And then later say:

I think Xine and Neruz are town.

And in your next post say:

I am too tired right now to figure out if Neruz is townflailing or scumflailing.

And then in your next post with content you say:

Unfortunately I ran into the sleep barrier again. But here are my reads so far:
Town:
Me
DRK
GreyICE
Neruz

And then finally settle on:

And let's not lynch Neruz because he's town, okay?

So...

-I do not understand why you finally came down on being so certain that Neruz is town.
-I do not understand why you keep oscillating between not understanding what Neruz is doing and then in literally your next post declare him town, not once but twice.

If you still believe Neruz is town, as you seem to have settled on, can you maybe explain where this certainty came from?

[Krazy]

@GreyIce

Almost from the first few pages you have said:

I'm holding Neruz almost entirely unlikely to be scum

and I believe in your most recent list you have said:

Neruz (Best town here, I think he's dead on)

Can you refresh me on why you have been so certain, through the entire day, that Neruz is not only town, but the best town?

[Krazy]

Sorry about this typo:

In this quote,

Neruz

does not actually imply or suggest that Neruz has said he believes bgg to be town; he only confirms what Neruz has actually said, which is that Neruz would be willing to lynch bgg even if he had "proof" he was town.

In this quote,

Xine

does not actually imply or suggest that Neruz has said he believes bgg to be town; he only confirms what Neruz has actually said, which is that Neruz would be willing to lynch bgg even if he had "proof" he was town.

Sorry again about the string of posts, I'm almost done with this first wave. There's a lot to comment on!

@ Neruz:

i wasn't saying that aggresive play is anti-town, i was saying that my personal experience has been that people who push other people outside their comfort zones have tended to be scum, i said this because i believe that in general, pushing people outside their comfort zone generates just as many false positives as real positives, as people who are outside their comfort zone are uncomfortable.

Saying I agreed that pushing people outside the comfort zones have tended to be scum... what exactly is "aggressive play" then? How do you play aggressively without pushing people outside their comfort zones? Don't the two pretty much go hand in hand?

[Krazy]

Yeah sorry Neruz, I know you've been over that point before, but I'm trying to understand your relationship with GreyIce. In my readthrough, you accuse GreyIce of basically being really suspicious and bandwagony after they vote for you, and then when GreyIce at the slightest provocation unvotes you and then jumps on Xine, you seem to more or less just let it go. This is back around page 12 or 13. I don't see how GreyIce's vote for Xine, at that point in the game, was less suspicious really than their vote for you. That, combined with GreyIce's refrain that, without explanation, they think you're innocent has me very concerned that, even if you're not a mafia team, GreyIce was trying to play you by poking you, clearing you, then trying to get you on their team (which seems to have happened, with your vote on Xine over, basically, what I take to be a misunderstanding).

[Krazy]

Well lessee. Xine's been reduced to lurking ... at Neruz's prodding. If either of them flip scum, he's basically confirmed town.

So yeah. Don't see why you'd question this much.

I'm looking at this post by Xine:

Heh, I lurk, tis true, always have. (I'm a very busy woman, but I manage to keep up on reading, and posting requirements, feel confident in that) I do like that you excuse yourself for lack of content, and then immediately attack me for lack of content...

Xine has been lurkerish the whole game, I don't see Xine's activity as dropping off that much. I also don't see how Xine flipping mafia automatically clears Neruz.

It seems like you're listing Neruz as town just because he put himself at odds with bgg?

[Krazy]

I guess I am the failure kitten in question. I think Xine actually had a fair point in critiquing Neruz for what he said and the direction his posts were going. It was starting to look like his vote and critiques for bgg were coming more out of sheer rage, which would certainly be anti-town, if not downright scummy. That being said, I can still see why there was a backlash on Xine, considering what bgg has done this game that, if not justifying Neruz's position on bgg, certainly made his position sympathetic.

[Krazy]

Well, I was hoping I would feel a lot better about Neruz, Llama, and GreyIce after getting a chance to talk to them a bit. The constant refrain of innocence they have produced for Neruz has been one of the most baffling things about this thread, especially in the early pages, as early as 4 I think when people were still in RVS and already proclaiming his innocence?

That being said, I will just have to hope I am wrong about them, because there's really just no way to ignore bgg's actions this game.

Vote bgg1996

From the first post in this game, bgg softclaimed town:

Btw, mafia: Please don't kill me on the first night?

and virtually every post he made in the first few pages of the game to greater or lesser extents were softclaims.

Until he unexpectedly and without reason hardclaimed vanilla town. This, at the time, some people were willing to sweep under the rug since he came off as newb town and perhaps stupid.

However, bgg in the time since has come off as actually clever, and not nearly so newbish as he initially seemed. So why these initial antics of soft and hardclaims?

Apparently, it was a trap (cue stupid graphic of Admiral Ackbar here).

With it said that way, why would you tell everybody to "see what his proof is tomorrow. If he is unable to provide proof that he is not scum tomorrow then we will have a direct contradiction from him, which is a powerful scum tell." You went on to vote Nathanael.
With me claiming VT, what reason could you possibly have for believing that I had proof, regardless of what I actually said?

Why would bgg put out the claim of being able to produce evidence tomorrow if he himself so quickly accepts that doing so is absurd? At this point, it more or less seems that bgg deliberately produced an absurd claim just to see if anyone would accept it, in the hope of calling out whoever accepted it.

As a fishing gambit, this might not be the WORST out there (better than a self-vote at least), but it's still pretty bad and, I think, far more anti-town than town.

However, this has not just served as a fishing tactic for bgg, instead he worked very hard to actually try to more-or-less transform this into a wagon on Neruz.

My vote is between:

Neruz, for among other things, contradictions and hypocracies.

Surprise_Carcinogen, for being so adamant about me being lynched and a few logical fallacies.

This is like, the only time bgg mentions Surprise_Carcinogen, and he never really addressed the logical fallacies he claimed to have seen. At this point, whatever logical fallacies he saw for S_C is irrelevant. What's important here is that he didn't vote for Neruz yet. I see this post as one of several where bgg basically tried to present himself as not tunneling, and not simply throwing an omgus vote on Neruz.

Then we get to bgg's vote on Neruz himself:

I told myself the next time you posted, had at least three sentences, a quote, and the word "fuck". And have not yet answered any questions or otherwise contributed to our victory, that would be the point where I stopped making idle threats and actually put your life on the line.

Vote:Neruz

Although bgg did elsewhere sort of hint at reasons he might see Neruz as guilty, it's interesting that the main reasons he lists right before his vote are more based on characterizing Neruz as incoherent and emotionally laden. This is very problematic for me, especially when bgg very clearly was provoking Neruz and pretty much everyone else in the thread:

Some examples:

Or maybe he is actually smart (doubtful)

In case your incredibly thick head still does not get it,

Either that or they are too stupid to remember the difference between me and Xine.

bgg basically does his best to enrages people, and then votes Neruz because he's swearing and coming across as angry? Yikes.

And one of the worst, in retrospect at this point, is this:

In other words, yes I am stupid, but you still have to answer my stupid questions.

I think that really sums it up... bgg set himself up as stupid, provoked other people with his questions, and then at the first person who "bit" threw his vote.

This is WAY scummy, and he has been so much more dramatically anti-town than anyone else in the game, I don't see how I could really justify a vote on the people I find "only scummy."

I can't deny that in the last few pages bgg has been 'way better' by comparison, but somehow that only makes the first ten pages of this thread even more absurd, because he clearly understands how to play the game and is well capable of rational thought. To me, his actions this game read like scum tactics trying to trap a potential innocent into a convoluted day one lynch.

I'm still not thrilled with the produced innocence for Neruz from Llamarticle and GreyIce, but I simply can't ignore the player that is way more suspicious.

Also, in the few posts that he's made since he's joined the game, I sort of got the feeling he really wanted me to get on his side; he indirectly agreed with pretty much every point I made, which actually came off as a bit desperate to me. But then again, it may very well be true that we both don't get the wagon on Xine and that he doesn't need to fake that.

End of the line, though, bgg's actions for the first ten pages of this game were either: a) stupid and indirectly anti-town or b) smart and really, really suspicious. But bgg doesn't strike me, at this point, as dumb or newbish, so at this point he is far and away my top candidate.

[Krazy]

Another typo:

Also, in the few posts that he's made since

he's

joined the game,...

Also, in the few posts that he's made since

I've

joined the game,...

[Krazy]

I'm not sure why you keep referring to GreyICE in plural though.

??????

"GreyIce's" is singular possessive?

If you're talking about the use of "they" I've noticed Llama doing it too, see 423.

[Krazy]

Yeah, it was the 'they', if you're going to include Llmarble in something, make sure his name is in there too, since the paragraph made no mention of him, the 'they' is both incorrect and wierd.

Which "they" is this? I do include Llamarble's name in the first paragraph of 442, which is what I thought you might have meant.

[Krazy]

OH I see which 'they' you mean now.

Yeah that was my bad. GreyIce's avatar is Lain but the gender is listed as male so I got confused ^^

[Krazy]

Sorry, what does it mean to "sheep it"?

P.S. No matter where you go, everyone's connected.

<3 Lain.

[Krazy]

DRK, here you hardclaim sobriety:

I'm not drunk, but when reading this post, you should pretend I am

but here, just two posts later, you softclaim being drunk:

I'M LOSING MY AWESOME DRUNKEN POWAHZ.

Which is it?

[Krazy]

....

I'm really confused, did you change your name?

[Krazy]

Did you post in the Replacement List thread or just the Mini Normal queue thread?

[Krazy]

As my last posts were supposed to more or less imply, I am more interested in seeing whether the replacements bring anything new to the table, if they ever come. I feel like the last two pages have been an entrenchment of arguments and positions that have already been taken (GI vs. Xine, Neruz vs. bgg, etc.). I still feel like the discrepancy between bgg's early play and his recent play is the most suspicious thing in this thread, and have yet to see a reason to really change my vote.

Also, yeah, marathon weekend.

[Krazy]

Except Neruz really did say that he would lynch bgg even if he did have confirmation that he was town, thus he would have a "willingness to lynch someone he believes to be town."

Xine is still very high on my list (for the relationship to bgg) but not because of this nonsense. Neruz really did say he would be willing to lynch bgg even if he was modconfirmed town, and let's face, that was anti-town as hell and Xine's vote here had at least a plausible explanation behind it. Sure Neruz was probably being hyperbolic, but he did say it. If Xine is scummy it's for taking Neruz's hyperbole seriously, not for simply making stuff up.

[Krazy]

Neruz's freakout is bad town play as it moves the game away from how people are positioning themselves and puts the emphasis on who is being ruder to the other person. I call bad town play "anti-town" and I'm sorry if I am misusing that term. So Neruz's statement, hyperbole or serious, is still bad town play, but I forgive him for it (for now) because bgg was certainly provoking him.

[Krazy]

1. Quote the posts you consider certain provoking and explain the differences in what I did and that Bgg did.
2. Why do you excuse him?

Not sure how much I really need to defend this position, I think bgg characterizes his actions in 53 in his iso:

53 in iso: So being retarded/braindead/fuckingwithyou is a big scumtell then?

53 in iso again: Did my braindead fucking-with-you retardedness make you permanently furious?

He pretty much admits that his "braindead/retarded" posts in the first 6 pages of the thread were fucking with him... I mean maybe he's going to say this was sarcasm or whatever, but to me it does seem like he was mostly trying to fuck with the whole game, and neruz was the one who bit the hardest.

I excuse Neruz for now, as I said, because bgg provoked him and because bgg currently seems more suspicious to me. Should bgg flip town, I would probably have to take another look at Neruz, although right now Neruz is middling in my list and I'm a bit more skeptical of the people who seem eager to get on Neruz's good side and characterize him as innocent with flimsy explanations or 'gut readings'.

I can't really compare your actions to bgg's because you never pretended to be braindead only to turn around and attack people who accept any of your braindead comments.

[Krazy]

thank you replacements!

[Krazy]

I do believe you are scum.

And i don't believe that.

Ok, I'd really like if you stopped dodging my question:
I believe you are scum (this is a fact). Knowing this, why do you think I believe you are scum?
I'll tell you more: I believe Hiraki is scum with you.
Why do you think I think he is scum?
And I'll add one more question: why don't you believe I believe you are scum?

Nath, shouldn't you be, I dunno making a case against Hiraki etc. rather than letting the people you accuse make your case for you?

[Krazy]

So I'm scum asking bad questions, but CAPSing that any suspicion of llama is being a "horrible townie."

k

That's the second time you've flatly said I'm scummy without ever making a case, you ever going to, I don't know, make one?

[Krazy]

Well don't QQ about me "lurking" when you never actually say anything worth responding to. But please, keep just calling me scum, because that's really just 100% pro-town play.

I guess it's asking Ice to force-feed us to ask him to back up any position ever?

[Krazy]

At the moment I think GreyIce is piss-poor town, but if bgg flips town (and Xine by relation) then GreyIce would be in my top 3 with Llamarble and Hiraki.

[Krazy]

Piss-poor town play is still piss-poor town play, so yes. Randomly accusing me does not help the town, unless we've somehow teleported back to RVS.

[Krazy]

I voted bgg because of the vast discrepancy between his early play and his late play and because of his more-or-less fabricated vote on Neruz; Xine and Nathaniel's inexplicable defense of him doesn't really sit well with me either.

You seem skeptical of the timing of my vote for bgg. I voted bgg when a few people had a chance to respond to my initial questions and after I had finished the thread. My first post was not a vote because I wanted to see if I could get a stronger town read from GreyIce and Llamarble. I did not, but I still could not reconcile bgg's actions with a town read so I voted for him. Saying "if bgg flips town GreyIce is one of my top candidates" is not the same thing as saying I have a strong town read on GreyIce; and town-read or not I don't see random accusations of being mafia without any evidence as particularly beneficial to the town.

[Krazy]

Are you SERIOUSLY trying to say that bgg was scum trying to lure town into doing stupid things by intentionally playing dumb?

Yes.

Would you vote have been different if you'd had a stronger town read on either of them? Because, y'know, I've always been told to vote for my

scum

reads. Just sayin'

I voted for my strongest scum read. If GreyIce or Llamarble had seemed much scummier, I would have voted for either of them, instead they broke even and thus I stuck with bgg.

M

Saying "if bgg flips town GreyIce is one of my top candidates" is not the same thing as saying I have a strong town read on GreyIce; and town-read or not I don't see random accusations of being mafia without any evidence as particularly beneficial to the town.

Did I say you claimed to have a strong town read on him? No? Okay. It's fun watching you go to justify it though.

What are you trying to do here DRK? You just voted me because apparently you thought I was mistreating someone you thought I said I had a scumread on, and now you don't want to say you thought I had a town-read on GreyIce? Are you just trying to make this really convoluted and murky or what?

[Krazy]

Ah, misinterpreted you as having said you had a town read on them. I still don't see your initial questions as having a purpose.

These would be the initial questions where I ask GreyIce to *gasp* give some sort of explanation for calling me scum?

No, I thought you thought he was town and asked you to confirm it. You did and while you were doing that, I read you in iso and decided you were scummyscumscumsauce. You implied that I thought you had a strong town read on him, whereas I never gave you any reason to believe that. Hence, nervous scum going overboard trying to justify what he said.

You decided my "treatment" of GreyIce was suspicious because you thought I thought GreyIce was town, why would my treatment of GreyIce be uncalled for unless you thought I had a strong read? Am I supposed to be super nice to anyone that isn't my top choice? Am I supposed to stop asking questions or ask for explanations as to why people accuse me, directly or indirectly? What's going on with this train of thought, DRK?

I don't think anything short of you flipping town could ever convince me you believe this and even that would be questionable.

So you're on the "bgg's posting style, content, and behavior completely changed ten pages into the game for no reason whatsoever" wagon?

[Krazy]

Aside from that, if you're scum, this argument has ceased being useful. If you're town, this argument has still ceased being useful. Good luck and good day, sir.

I see, so when you make up a bunch of reasons to vote for me and I call you on it, the argument has ceased being useful. No wonder you sympathize with GreyIce, who simply refuses to come up with explanations at all.

Do I know that bgg is scum who tried to make a play? No.

But:

-Can I explain his actions as town? No.
-Did his posts in the first ten pages of the game help the town? No.
-Is it possible that his actions are scum-motivated? Yes.

You can refuse to believe that I would think that bgg was capable of making a play or not.

But then, DRK, should I just add this to the list of things you don't want to talk about anymore, like your random caps-lock post a few pages back where you offered a bunch of "gut reads" and no supporting evidence either?

[Krazy]

Have you ever played in a game with a quote war? In case you haven't, let me clue you in. Two players start arguing and it blows up as each player attempts to refute every single point the other player makes. After a while, it doesn't even matter what's being argued. Each player will believe he's right and fight to the death to prove it. There comes a point where continuing the argument hurts town more than it helps. That point has come. If you would like to argue with me ad infinitum and scream about how my attack on you is so scummy and wrong, you're free to do so. I just won't be arguing back quite so loudly.

Have I been yelling? Insulted you? Have any of my posts been in caps lock?

Honestly I was surprised I didn't get a lot of reaction to my reasons for my vote on bgg earlier, I thought it was very reasonable for you to ask for clarification on that point. The first scummy thing I thought you did was suddenly stop because apparently you decided it was, (LOL) anti-town to actually have a conversation where questions are answered.

Actually, now that you mention it, what do you think of that caps lock post? Was it deliciously scummy? The only reaction it got out of you initially was another meaningless question.

Pretty sure all you did was a bunch of reactions with no explanation. Am I supposed to provide your cases for you now? Are you channeling Nathaniel?

[Krazy]

But was that post scummy?

Yes.

[Krazy]

Because apparently you want to use it as an excuse for people to make your cases for you. 'tis easier that way.

[Krazy]

Hey guys are DRK and Nathaniel the same person?

[Krazy]

Sheesh, you couldn't have even come up with a convincing reason to call it scummy? How about the fact that it just completely and arbitrarily overturned my previous reads?

The fact that I posted an apple?

Seriously dude, have you not been reading the past couple pages? Sure, GreyICE pointed out your useless questions first, but I hardly let other make the case on you for me.

You made a bunch of random comments and then QQ'd for me not responding to you more. I sort of thought maybe you were going to come back and give some sort of explanation for that post when you weren't high, but I guess you were just sitting on it for the hope of someone reacting to it in some way. What the hell was the point of that?

Oh I'm sorry was that another "useless question"?

@bgg That's cool but still not a reason for me to change my vote on you.

[Krazy]

@DRK

I disagree that that's reaching.

If you weren't high, then why do you still refuse to explain any read you gave in that post, and why did you go out of your way to make it seem so random?

Oh wait, I forgot you never explain any read ever, my bad.

[Krazy]

Come on. Bgg is a jester. It doesn't matter what color his role PM came in, that's his role and he's playing it to the hilt.

If this is true, I am apprehensive to vote for him. It certainly would explain his antics...

Pretty sure jester is not included in the list of "normal" roles for mini-normal games.

[Krazy]

Are we even reading the same thread? My poke on bgg literally gets him to confirm one of the most basic premises of my vote on him, ie that he deliberately played badly early on in a move that is clearly anti-town (pushing night kills on to power roles for the sake of 'staying alive') and there are no more votes on him?

Glad to see that GreyIce is now voting me based off roleplay posts. Would hate for any player in this thread to ever provide a coherent explanation for any vote they do ever.

[Krazy]

Mute... He's town.

I love how you dismiss his entire post in two words. <3

[Krazy]

Cop here.

Guilty on GreyIce.

Vote GreyIce

Hope this game has a doc!

[Krazy]

I'm looking forward to your OMGUS explanation Ice.

[Krazy]

Stall more please.

[Krazy]

See previous post.

I love your avatar, sorry you're scum, better luck next game!

[Krazy]

Wow rolefishing for the doc as your cross-claim?

You are shameless.

[Krazy]

So cops don't out with guilties, now, Neruz?

[Krazy]

"Hope there's a doc!" is a scumslip? I'm sorry but I just have to call bullshit on this. If there isn't one, then I'm dead tonight.

GreyIce is scum trolling for a doctor cross-claim before he is lynched.

[Krazy]

Exactly. Which is why the real doctor, if there is one, should not out.

[Krazy]

To the town (not GI since his response will be obvious):

What GreyIce is saying is this. That I:

-Disbelieved the claim that he was a PGO.
-Believed he was a doctor.
-Despite the claim of being a POG, roleblocked him.
-Despite believing he was a doctor, chose not to kill him.
-Instead of choosing to kill him, decided to roleclaim as a cop to get him lynched, thus guaranteeing my own death the next day.

Compare this to:
-I disbelieved GreyIce was really PGO.
-I believed GreyIce was scum.
-I scanned GreyIce.
-GreyIce was scum.
-Knowing he was dead either way, GreyIce decided to make himself useful to his team and tried to get the cop lynched and/or out the real doctor.

I personally am not a fan of Occam's Razor, but I mean, just wow. The amount of stretching going on here to make GreyIce's case plausible is almost as baffling as some of the responses where people choose to believe it.

Just slow down and ask yourself:
-Why would I roleblock GreyIce as scum if I believed he was PGO?
-Why would I not kill GreyIce as scum if I believed he was a doctor?
-Why would I roleblock GreyIce if I didn't believe he was a doctor or a power role?
-Why would scum do this?

When you find the answer to these questions, you will see the absurdity of GreyIce's defense, and the proper course of action will follow.

As for Redacted's claim that it's "one for one" either way, I beg to differ. The stakes could not be higher. If we lynch an innocent (me) today, the scum will have a nightkill tonight most likely. Then when we lynch the real scum tomorrow (GreyIce), the scum will have another nightkill. The cost to the town will be a power role-either way, one of the most important power roles-and another unnamed player. Please think carefully.

Thank you.

[Krazy]

Oh, and one last parting shot before dinner:

I.

One-shot is not a modifier allowed in normal games.

Paranoid-gun owner is not a role allowed in normal games.

= no threat to cop scan.

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Normal_Game

II.

Why would a doctor-hard-claim on day 1 next to a fake role that isn't in mini-normal games?

Answer: They don't.

[Krazy]

Even if it is, PGO is not.

[Krazy]

I laid the groundwork for a PGO claim early in the day D1, then claimed it at the end of the day when it became apparent I was a good candidate for the Night Kill

The only reason I can possibly see you doing this is to discourage scans by a cop (and if anyone realized it isn't even possible, leaving open the possibility of downplaying it as simply discouraging the mafia), and to possibly mount a counter-lynch on a cop should you ever be discovered. Further, it would be a much better excuse for why you were "conveniently" alive come no-lynch-loss scenarios. And better yet, you'd be guaranteed to have no cross-claims--since cross-claims themselves would be impossible!

And should it at that point be noticed that PGO isn't allowed, you could then fall-back on doctor. It's exactly the same level of creative positioning that has championed the town to your convoluted defense.

And Llama... really? Really?

Again: That still doesn't answer the question, if I REALLY believed GreyIce was the doctor, why would I simply not have killed him last night? Why would I instead target one of the people in the game MOST LIKELY to implicate me?

"Hmm... I can choose someone that will get me lynched. OR! I can kill the doctor!"

I mean, I know there's an element of WIFOM there, but just... come on. Really?

[Krazy]

One shot is absolutely allowed in normals; oneshot vigs are quite popular in fact. And each mini normal is allowed one nonnormal role which PGO would make sense as. But thanks for clarifying why your scumteam was sufficiently confident in GreyIce not being PGO to RB him in spite of his claim.

And thanks for explaining how you and GreyIce would give the claim plausibility come no-lynch-loss.

[Krazy]

* Anything resolving with a random element, with the exception of missed night choices. It must be included in the public ruleset if you are resolving night choices in this way.

"with the exception of missed night chances" != "death by targeting a random player"

If there was a PGO, I feel like it would almost certainly have to have been revealed at game start.

And Neruz, what if GreyIce REALLY WAS a doctor? Should I call him out on his fake-claim just to draw attention to the fact that HE WAS IN FACT A DOCTOR?

Come on, give me SOME credit here. You don't call the doctor out on being the doctor, and since I could instead just investigate him at night, why would I not just figure it out that way?

[Krazy]

Okay GreyIce, very good. You've answered the mod's question that I never got a straight answer to when I wanted to investigate you.

But what about my other question? If I believed you really were or really could be a PGO, why would I roleblock you? I WOULD DIE! Why would I not roleblock someone else in the game... like, I don't know, someone that could be the cop! Why pointlessly tempt fate?

If I didn't believe you were a PGO, why didn't I kill you?

-Either you're a PGO and roleblocking you is suicide, or you're a doc and I should just kill you.

At this point, it should be pretty clear I never believed you were a PGO. If, according to YOUR OWN CASE AGAINST ME, I believed you to be the doctor, why NOT kill you, and instead kill a random vanilla town?

I might be occasionally wrong about what can or cannot be a role (after all, you put much more work into faking it--which by now is obvious you did either way)--but that does not mean I'm so stupid I would take someone I believe to be town over someone I believe to be a doctor.

That is absurd.

[Krazy]

Oh cool we've reached the point of just constantly inserting the word "scum" in front of every sentence. Really subtle, scum.

You seem to think it was a foregone conclusion I was going to be lynched today, something I don't think is even remotely close to true.

In fact, the only reason you would have been less popular of a lynch today would be if, oh, I dunno, maybe you had a relationship with your victim?

Your case is getting more and more elastic. I might have been a conceivable lynch target today before the night kill, but I only became "probable" after DRK was killed. Which is no doubt why DRK is now dead, not you.

You are mod-confirmed scum. Your defense has been very elaborate, and you are definitely smart--no doubt you wanted to claim at some point in the game you were roleblocked today no matter what happened. You are smart enough to know when you're in enough threat of being lynched today that you would kill your friend, DRK, and you're smart enough to seed roleblock claims in case something did go wrong somehow on day one. I am impressed, but unfortunately, you are still scum and you still must die.

[Krazy]

pappums, I stand by my claim that I did not believe GreyIce was a PGO when I decided to investigate him.

I've been trying to get through my head what on earth GreyIce was doing with this "roleblocker" nonsense that seems to have come from nowhere, and I think I've got it.

As scum, what does GreyIce have to lose by claiming that he was roleblocked?

-If a power-role claims that they were roleblocked, then he has successfully outed another power-role.
-If no power-role claims they were roleblocked, two things is the case:

--One, either that person was not a power-role. Now that person is a confirmed vanilla town.
--Two, that person was a power-role but refuses to claim. GreyIce can then kill that person at any future point in the game and, come end-game, will be able to claim they were roleblocked last night and have no cross-claim.

In other words, for GreyIce, as scum, the profits of soft-claiming being roleblocked are basically win-win. It's slightly risky, but for his team, a relatively safe risk and highly profitable overall.

Now, let's imagine GreyIce is town. Why would he soft-claim being roleblocked before my cop claim?

--If he is town, then he has just confirmed to the scum that he is a power-role.
--If he really is a doctor, then he has just signed his own death-warrant, because there is almost certainly no one that can protect him.

In other words, according to GreyIce both claiming to be a doctor, and claiming to be have soft-claimed seeding "roleblocked", the only town explanation for that seeding is basically suicide.

[Krazy]

Seriously, no one else noticed that GreyIce's story at this point is, "Hey guys, I'm really a doctor, but I came out at the beginning of day2 saying 'HEY GUYS I WAS ROLEBLOCKED LAST NIGHT CAUSE I'M REALLY THE DOCTOR!' HEY MAFIA LOOK AT ME, DELICIOUS LITTLE POWER ROLE HERE JUST WAITING TO DIE!"

[Krazy]

Llama. Pretending for the moment that Ice was actually a doctor, how would they conceivably know what his target is? That entire train of thought rests on the scum knowing what GreyIce's target was going to be, which they cannot, unless GreyIce is not the doctor.

[Krazy]

Well it certainly was nice of him to take the first opportunity to confirm it as loudly as possible in case they had any doubt. Because I know that, when doctor, whenever I even remotely suspect that I've been spotted, I double check to make sure the mafia have absolutely no doubt in their minds that I really am the doctor.

Because playing it off like I'm a vanilla town, well, let's face it, that would just be suicidal. I need to breadcrumb as hard as possible so that the mafia will figure out I'm really the doctor.

At this point Llama I feel like you have to just be extremely misguided, because I can't imagine GreyIce's real mafia partner coming to his defense like this and purporting to believe GreyIce's absurd illogical leaps.

[Krazy]

And 9:2 is 3 mislynches to LyLo. 8:2 is 2 mislynches to MyLo. So better to blow a roleblocker on the PGO than an actual kill, especially since I claimed one shot.

GreyIce seems to be a fan of scumslips, so how about this one: he just outted the apparent fact that the scumteam is 2 people. Until this point I had no idea how many people were on the scumteam, but thanks for telling me how many of your buddies there are to look for.

I'm looking forward to his backpedaling from this one.

[Krazy]

Oh, well if it's

just an assumption

.

[Krazy]

You know Krazy, if you'd just stopped talking and gone into hard lurker mode, you'd look

less

scummy than you do now.

This is going to be great for us after this lynch, because we'll probably be able to find your scumbuddies fairly easily by looking for the players who desperately attempted to distance themselves from your sinking ship, which is also on fire and being invaded by aliens.

Oh I'm sorry, I claim cop with a guilty and get pushed to L-2 almost immediately. But please, tell me how I should stop posting more. Because that is just about the most pro-town thing you've said all game.

And Hiraki, thanks for being a fan. I really appreciate it.

[Krazy]

I respond sarcastically to posts that snipe at me but don't make a case or provide anything real to respond to. You're right though, it'd probably be better to just go "lol I know right?" But somehow the sarcasm just keeps working its way back in.

[Krazy]

[
Krazy I've seen bad/unlucky cop play in one other game of mine (it was RobCapone as cop. It's the Mini 1114 game), but even the cop in that didn't just oust himself after one successful investigation.

What? Why not? Seriously, if you are cop and have a guilty, the chances of winning after locating a confirmed guilty is ridiculously better than dying with the information the next night. I know that GreyIce has tried very hard to make a cop-oust look strange with his constant references to role-blockers, but I right now have zero reason to believe a roleblocker is in this game. Even if there is, we will have a mafia player out of the game giving us significantly more time to find scum. This logic that a cop should "wait" after he has a guilty just makes no sense to me, and no site I play on out of like three would give me this "cop shouldn't out with guilty!" nonsense. If there was a confirmed roleblocker, I would have thought about it. There isn't.

[Krazy]

Moreover, in the last game where I was cop [off-site], I had a guilty, I got killed, and the town lost.

I out with guilties.

[Krazy]

EBWOP: I died the night I got the guilty, since on re-read that was not clear.

[Krazy]

Okay, so I guess according to Mute and Neruz I'm a bad cop? I still don't get why I would wait until I'm at L-2 to drop the bomb, wouldn't it just look like scumflail at that point? I'm sorry but this seems reverse-meta logic to me. In games with night starts where I've been cop I dropped the bomb with a guilty first post on day 1 and it has worked out fine. You're trying to say it's unrealistic for me to be a cop and do this but I have done this the one time I have been cop and had the chance to, and would have done it the second time had I not been dead. Moreover, I seem to recall several games during the marathon where me or other cops did exactly this.

I'm sorry that you disagree with my playstyle. I am infected by other-site-meta. I might not fit your profile of a "pro cop" but I am still a cop. I came out with a guilty. This was, from my understanding, what cops do when they have guilties.

[Krazy]

What? You're assuming there's no protective role in this game, which is the exact opposite of my assumption. Granted, it is a risky assumption to make, but it is not ungrounded. You're saying you believe that GreyIce is the doctor but you don't think it makes sense for me to come out as a cop because we're assuming there isn't a doctor in the game. What?

[Krazy]

Actually I came out on the hope that there was a doc in the game, so that they could protect me, so that I could be guaranteed a safe scan tonight.

Thought process:
I have a guilty
There is PROBABLY a doctor/protective role in this game
If I do not out, I might be night-killed
If I out too late, it might come off as a desperate fakeclaim

Seriously, if I had been pushed to L-2 and then made my claim, I don't think for a minute that we wouldn't be having the exact opposite discussion right now.

Given the choice between outing a confirmed guilty or risking death on the hope of getting two seemed like a much more serious risk than taking what I could get and hoping for a doctor.

And Mute, although it is "other site meta" the point is that I still disagree with the "this-site" meta of not outing guilties until after your life is in imminent danger.

[Krazy]

And no, my avatar is not nemesis.

[Krazy]

Neruz, you're saying "a cop for a scum" isn't a good trade. Okay, all I was saying I did not see that as the 'best case scenario.' "Best case scenario" there is a doctor and I survive the night and maybe get a second scum. The worst case scenario is I've taken down a scum. Best != worst.

As for the doctors in the game... well. I have difficulty explaining why I believed this and at this point it's clear you won't believe me even if I tell you. And on looking at other mini-normal games, I now see that I was wrong to expect there to be a doctor. I am just really used to games with doctors, I guess... I've played the cop+doc vs. scum setup so often that honestly I didn't really think too carefully about whether there would or wouldn't be a doctor in this game. But I can't convince you of this. And at this point I can see why coming out early really is more suspicious. Wow, okay, I guess I am fucked here.

The presumption that doctors were probable to be in the game was so deep in my mind it barely even hit conscious thought and at this point it just seems certain that I'm dead, if not by lynch now then by shot tonight. Great. Just great.

Welp. I do regret coming out now, although I regret it more for the night-kill tonight if you lynch me then anything else. At least you'll get GreyIce tomorrow and will still have a chance after that, I'm guessing.

[Krazy]

It is clear to me now that my decision to out will cost the town its cop. Before now, I was operating under the hope that the lynch on GreyIce would go smoothly and that I would have doctor's protection tonight. Now it is clear neither of those things are true, sadly enough the lynch will fail because I mistakenly assumed there would be a doctor in the game, and thus I have lost my credibility.

Nonetheless, it seems prudent now to review my suspects. Now that I have realized that the charges by Llamarble, mostly, that my cop role-claim seems "improbable" and that he was actually right about this, I have had to seriously re-evaluate my list of suspects. Previous to that, I was assuming that Llamarble was likely one of GreyIce's team-mates, hoping to lynch the cop. Now I can see that his suspicions of me were well-grounded and that he was more willing to push his skepticism than I expected. His current willingness to lynch me as quickly as possible does not strike me as the behavior of someone who knows I will flip town.

So at the moment, I personally believe that Llamarble is actually very likely to be innocent, which rather rewrites my entire suspect list.

That does not mean, however, that of the people on the wagon on me that all are innocent.

Two of the other more vocal proponents of my wagon have been Neruz and Mute. Both have rightly shown skepticism of my claims. Neruz I feel rightly helped me understand why announcing my cop role was so unbelievable for when I did it. However, for some reason, I have difficulty then saying that he, like Llamarble, really strikes me as innocent. Mute, on the other hand, seems to be overdoing it, saying, "I DO NOT FUCKING BUY KRAZY'S GODDAMN CLAIM AND I FUGGIN' THINK IT'S A LOAD O' HORSE SHIT LOADED WITH TNT!!" Both Neruz and Mute have started using silly metaphors like sinking-ships filled with aliens or horse shit loaded with TNT. Both seem to have taken for granted their oppositional position to me before I even announced my role. I doubt both are scum. But if I were to point to one over the other, I feel like I would go with Neruz. He seemed to understand the heart of the problem with me announcing my role fairly quickly, but nevertheless wanted me to just stop talking for a while. In any case, he also seemed to understand the rules behind GreyIce's PGO claim very well. Perhaps this simply shows an active understanding of the rules. But perhaps it also shows he was thinking of GreyIce's claim before now himself.

As for the remaining players:
Xine
-I think made a fair point in at least bringing up the possibility of lynching outside of power-role claims, even if it is a more "neutral" position to take. It isn't neutral at all, actually, considering how likely he was before now to be a top candidate for such a lynch. I am a little bit more concerned about people who would look at this reasonable suggestion and instantly equate it with guilt, regardless of whether they believed me or GreyIce.

Pappums Rat
-I'm not really a fan of players that throw around suspicion without building a case around it, and him highlighting Mute's "bussing" comment (which I think was benign) without commenting on anything else is problematic.

TheButtonmen [Redacted]
-The subject of "a whole post" by GreyIce, I am trying to understand what Ice wanted to do with him here. I actually did notice that his post toward me back on D1 had a "different feel" than his responses to other players. I'm not exactly sure what to make of that, and I wasn't sure at the time how to respond ("Why aren't you poking me more?") However, he seemed to be one of the few who noticed that there was something wrong with the wagon on me. But, similar to my current reading of Neruz who seemed to move too easily to the position of my guilt, I wasn't so sure of how to take this.

Hiraki
-I'm personally not a fan of "gut feelings" to justify votes, and I'm also not a fan of using those gut feelings to avoid answering the questions that either side is producing.

My Milked Eek
-Still waiting on that catch-up post.

Nathanael
-Still hasn't addressed the dialogue between me and GreyIce.

[Krazy]

alright, i have thought about it enough and i believe that krazy is almost certainly scum.

vote krazy

l-1

Pappums, is there a reason behind this OTHER than my terribly timed role reveal?

[Krazy]

Krazy what the fuck was that?

All the excitement you're missing from the scum QT