Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[BROseidon]

Also MS that reasoning does 0 to convince me that you aren't scum.

[Nachomamma8]

i'm excited!

[Metal Sonic]

Protip : at 3waylylo with no clear, the (subjectively) scummiest player is usually the town

simple logic, the (subjectively) townie players would have been sniped by the mafia

so I am clean and you two cross, feel free to do your isos thought I'll get to them this afternoon

[BROseidon]

Not getting the ISO up tonight, decided to play a few games of LoL for my sanity.

MS that argument completely ignores the context of this game. There's value to playing the numbers game early (ie, why I tend not to question day 1 miller and mason claims), but later you have to make judgment calls about what's actually going on.

[Metal Sonic]

the context is that i slapfighted TD the whole game and TD flipped scum

unless you imply that me being helpful scumhunter will flip scum too


i take my town role pms for granted and so should you

iso'ing now

cross first u hoes

[Metal Sonic]

iso'd bro

gonna iso nacho now

you two need to cross

and argue with each other

to convince me whoever is scum

burden's on me

i wont reveal what i think of you both unless you both cross

because of authenticity of reads

[Metal Sonic]

Next, Rach. I'm heavily relying on a game here since I read her wrong in Popcorn, but am figuring out where I went wrong with that specific read.

First of all, the read on me.

Played with Nacho loads and so far he feels pretty much his town meta.... Though he does have a tendency to replace into scum slots LOL... but yeah feels towny to me.

Ok guys n gals Nacho is definitely hitting my towndar...

So far Town reads : Nacho, Andy, B n B. Orc,

Read progression here is very natural. She had the townread on me originally, which is an easy one to pick up on which was exactly the situation in popcorn mafia. Then, she follows up on read later, strengthens it. Ending has me as solid town, no more waffling.

I definitely want to hear more from Nacho, he does have a strong record of replacing into scum slots....

Now look at Popcorn. Similar situation, this is literally the only time she gave a read on me and I was town as all hell. No development, no trajectory, none.

Also, it took her 22 posts in Popcorn to come up with a read, and her strongest scumread was on obvtown for "trolling". None of her reads had any sort of trajectory at all, and she just lurked through the game and coasted by on me defending her until she just stopped posting and I started dropping the townread. Here, she's been aggressive with reads, is asking relevant questions, is calling out OTHER people for inactivity... This is not anything close to her scumgame at all, and if she is town I will happily eat several hats until a hole forms in my stomach and I die from internal bleeding.

rach please don't make fun of me while i'm trying to defend you ;.;

^

Agreed.

Sort of liked this post because it was a connect with someone else who trolls around a lot.

nacho town

freezerguy town

orc town

vassoon town

beautybeast town

mac town

tiphaine scum

sven troll

varsoon still town

cabd quite town

ghostlin leaning town


rach town

sajin leaning town

aj the epic leaning scum

broseidon leaning scum too i guess

I'll give reasons after the posting dies down. 50 pages(1000+ posts) in 72 hours, please no its torturous



2 getting scummier

aj leaning town now

ghostlin town

mac stil town

reverend a+ slip contradiction strong

beast leaning town

andrius town

also good luck with reading john or whoever had to read 50 pages

cabd and guy in freezer very town right now

ok i just iso'd tiphaine

except for #901
the rest of his posts are shit

yep scum

VOTE: TiphaineDeath

TMT is a null-leaning-town

except for his atrocious name

andrius town

broseidon leaning town

ghoslin leaning town

2, nacho varsoon cabd strong town

What I see here is a blatant, blatant lack of opportunism. I think scum in Ms's position would be a *tiny* bit opportunistic, but nope.

These are incriminating nacho


I am still going to keep my reads secret for lylo

just putting this out there for discussion purposes

[Metal Sonic]

Orc, I would maybe like to move Rev into townblock, but I want to discuss him with you.

2. Aj The Epic - bad
3. Andrius - good
4. BeautyAndTheBeast - good
5. BROseidon - good
6. Cabd - good
7. Venmar - good
8. Ghostlin - good
9. GuyInFreezer - good
10. Ser Arthur Dayne - bad
12. Metal Sonic - good
13. orcinus_theorigina - good
14. RachMarie - good
15. Sajin - good
17. Nachomamma8 - good
18. TiphaineDeath - good
19. spinachattack - bad
20. Varsoon - good

Here's where I lie. Where do we differ?

With your credentials, as scum I would have just used my strongman kill on you and been done with it N1 if you were town. But you're still alive and kickin' 3 days in...

14. RachMarie, Mumkhar, Mechonis Aligned 1-Shot Strongman, was lynched Day 3.
13. orcinus_theoriginal, Meyneth, Mechonis Aligned Godmother Neighbor, was killed Night 3.

3. Andrius
4. BeautyAndTheBeast (Majiffy + pirate mollie)
5. BROseidon
6. Cabd
8. Ghostlin
9. GuyInFreezer
11. Mac
13. orcinus_theoriginal
14. RachMarie
18. TiphaineDeath
20. Varsoon

I'm not lynching any of these people. Most of them I'm not lynching ever, but there's too many people in here for me to actually say that.

Why would blue strongman kill me...?

Okay what on earth is this metal sonic wagon

This seems so weird

orc tunnels the fuck out of Metal Sonic until a wagon actually forms on him. Then there's this.

Rach has a similar reaction!

umm Orc i really have no clue why the MS wagon... could be a counterwagon? Especially if there are two scum teams....

Both seem like they are defending a scumbuddy.

These incriminate nacho as well, just putting this out there since he has tons more posts

[Metal Sonic]

Ok

VOTE NACHO

That's L-1 Nacho. You have the floor.

I don't know if you've noticed, but I've been left completely on my own this day phase. I want you to read through the actual arguments that people have been making and tell me why you're allowing MS to buddy the hell out of you, why you're allowing TD to blatantly contradict himself, and why you're allowing SAD to coast when I'm hauling my ass off producing as much content as possible and nailing scum as hard to the wall as I possibly can. Your current wagon mates are TD, SAD, and MS. Andy has mentioned that he's found me scummy, but the entirety of the case against me is still:

1) Nacho's still alive when he posted so much and so many people read him town on Day 1!
2) Nacho's arguing that we should lynch red scum today! He's probably blue scum!

TD:

Nachos 3606, is a scumslip, GIF caught this, well done.

Nacho has to be red scum.

Nacho is red scum.

I have not been throwing shit everywhere. I have two solid town reads, Nacho/andi.

Also what happened to this?

You slipped. That simple.

Pretty much nothing short of that or a night action reveal would have made me change my read on you

but.... there it is.

Killing blue is right today.

nacho has been arguing that we should be killing red, thus he is blue.

MS has been agreeing with me, thus he is red. Nacho is the right kill today.

Bolded is mine.

Tiphane has been arguing that I am red scum because of the scumslip. He said that if it were not for the scumslip, he would find me town. Next, Tiphane finds strong evidence that I am NOT red scum, which would make the scumslip invalid. Instead of deciding that "oh, nacho's scumslip is wrong and thus he's probably town again" he decides that instead I am BLUE scum. He is doing this because there is support for a Nacho lynch today, but he can't hop on my wagon as long as he's calling me red scum. So he takes my theory arguments (despite the fact that SAD has been doing the exact same thing) as a confirmation for me being blue-scum, which allows him to say consistent in his earlier arguments for "we have to lynch blue scum today we have to lynch blue scum today" but also allows him to stay on my wagon. I also questioned him on "what would happen if evidence comes around saying that I'm not red scum?" and Tiphane's answer was that if SAD flipped red scum, I would be pretty much cleared (#3706). His attack on me now is a direct contradiction to what he was saying before. There is no way in hell that he's town.

Vote: TiphaineDeath

Why are you being so goddamned helpful? X_x.

I'm just a very helpful person.

Nacho's 3615 is feigning ignorance, I do not like this. Scum scummity scum want a mislynch, always, and you know that.

Scum don't want mislynches when there's 1 scum, 1 opposing scum, and 1 town. Always is a dangerous word to use.

3682 is twisting my words to his own purposes, do-not-like.

In your eyes, I am Red. MS is Blue scum. SAD is not my buddy. Thus, SAD is town. How is that inaccurate?

3737 is where nacho's stubbornness really crosses the line from reasonable to unreasonable. I've addressed this like five times and he still wants me too. This is also when I get the inkling that something is off with my read on him as red scum.

You were saying that removing a nightkill is better because removing a nightkill is always better. I was trying to get you to explain that logic, but you never did.

(which made me think they were strategic crumbs placed for a cover).

He's known for strategic crumbing, so the claim itself doesn't surprise me at all. We're also expecting a protective role in this game (considering the strongman), and he's a protector, sooo. He'll become townier if we manage to flip something like a ninja, but as for now, it's a claim that makes perfect sense within the setup.

this breaks my self imposed ban but
nacho
kindly explain to spinach
what happened the last game we were in
and how on top of that i was

I'm waiting for you to catch up.

It's a game and it furthers your wincon and it takes out someone who aparently knows you better than the rest of us.

She doesn't know him better than the rest of you. I know him better than the rest of you. This was mollie's first game with him.

I really think TD is town

You can explain this, especially keeping his latest responses in mind.

So that makes no sense from a town perspective- why suddenly slink back into the shadows after that great performance? I was expecting him to draw the NK early on because of his play- which makes sense as VTs should try and draw the NK away from PRs. (mac, cabd)

That was the point. I didn't expect to be alive in this game at LyLo. My play fell off after that mostly by virtue of not recalibrating/quicklynch galore. When the game slowed down, I was there the entire time. I don't know if you noticed, but I WAS hauling ass yesterday for the majority of yesterday. And you can't tell me you don't know what it's like when you have a good D1 and everything steadily goes to shit because that's EXACTLY what happened this game.

I need you because town isn't losing this game regardless of what happened this game. I woke up this morning and I realized that I found what I was missing; I have what I need and we are NOT going to devolve into bullshit paranoia. You suspect me?
Make a case on me.

You think TD is town? Call him town. Talk about why he is town.
I need one more townread from this group of three. And it's going to be the best damn townread I've ever had.

Just to prove that I actually read



BTW: done with isos



guys cross and debate pls thats all for now

I'll get my final decision after you two argue and make cases/AtE/convince me

although the isos i read make me lean towards one particular player already....

[Nachomamma8]

BRO I'm still waiting for your catchup buddy

[BROseidon]

Yeah I'm still working on it.

Hanging out with friends right now. Will get to it when I'm done with them.

[BROseidon]

About 1/2 way done at this point.

[Nachomamma8]

can you post the halfway done part?

[BROseidon]

Here is part 1. it's through post 2000:

VOTE: Metal Sonic

confscum

Early random MS wagon. Not sure how to take this because I’m pretty sure Orc is actually just insane.

Orc is town.

Early townread on Orc. Nacho’s read comes before everyone else’s Orc townreads, which makes me think that it is more likely coming from townNacho rather than scumNacho.

Let's talk about Metal Sonic. He hasn't replied to or even acknowledged my RVS push. Wonder why?

More RVS push after Sven gets the townreads. Still null to me.

Holy fucking shit Nacho and Orc work together to calibrate BnB/2 for several hundred posts. I doubt scum would so blatantly work together and play off each other, and if it weren’t Nacho I would probably write this off as a town/scum interaction entirely.

Hi metal sonic nice to meet you. Are you going to vote someone?

Interesting that this is Orc’s first post directed at MS, considering that he did the whole MS wagon thing at the start. This looks like Orc trying to subliminally distance himself from a partner.

799 makes Metal look bad, imo.

Okay, there are a lot of day 1 convos between Orc and Nacho. This is making me feel less paranoid about Nacho because it’s completely different from how Orc interacted with Rach at a very fundamental level.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=25373

Crazy Newbie Game the JK and I as the Doc (surprise surprise) made it a no kill zone like forevers lol

What are you doing?

This is a standard Orc/Rach interaction. Short, only a few posts, often a bit hostile on Orc’s end. Orc is friendly with Nacho all through day 1.

So far Town reads : Nacho, Andy, B n B. Orc,
leaning town include GiF Cabd

Would Rach be so bold as to townread both scumbuddies on day 1 so blatantly? Probably null here, since Nacho and Orc were both universal townreads at this point.

Note that by Metal’s first set of reads he was townreading both Orc and Rach. That means all three of us were both townreading both bluescum.

I'll give reasons after the posting dies down. 50 pages(1000+ posts) in 72 hours, please no its torturous

Interesting that this never really happens. Scum biding time to not have to give in-depth though processes, perhaps?

3. Andrius
4. BeautyAndTheBeast (Majiffy + pirate mollie)
5. BROseidon
6. Cabd
8. Ghostlin
9. GuyInFreezer
11. Mac
13. orcinus_theoriginal
14. RachMarie
18. TiphaineDeath
20. Varsoon

Orc and Rach both are in Nacho’s early townblock, which looks sort of bad. However, TD and GiF both made their ways in there, which further would sooth my paranoia. Nacho being town and alive doesn’t seem so unreasonable when he’s townreading most of the scum so strongly. Or he could be bluescum who just misread TD/GiF horribly.

Rach I guess is the weakest read, but it's a stretch to see her as scum.

However this looks kind of bad, like a way to set up a bus on Rach later.\

Also, Nacho’s case on town-Rach off reading it again. The argument that Nacho presented was “Rach is giving reads and actively participating in the game, whereas in scum she usually sits back and doesn’t give reads.” That’s all good, but in multiball this is meaningless because scum still have a strong incentive to scumhunt well. Scum Nacho could have known this and used this to justify townreading a buddie. However, town Nacho wouldn’t have been aware of multiball, so this would be an honest mistake in that case. Since it was Rach’s flip that revealed multiball, I can’t check how Nacho adjusts his Rach read at that revelation, which is unfortunate.

Interesting that I’m in the 1600s and Orc has gone to barely mentioning MS. That random-seeming early pressure is dead. Clear partner motivation in that (early distancing while not actually pushing to the lynch).

MS is definitely a bit of pot meet kettle cause his ISO is also very short whilst he complains to Nacho for putting TD on the town list but not him ummm ... You definitely need to post more, and I will say that at least TD has posted some content... you can go in the leaning scumz pile...

This looks like coaching followed by distancing.

Looking at MS, AJ and TMT...

Rule of 3, perhaps? Also, I don’t think Rach ever really does follow up on MS in any serious way.

[BROseidon]

Also quad ISOing is terrible >:C

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA until the 18th. Hopefully will be able to sneak in a post here and there, probably not.

i like what you have so far BRO.

[Nachomamma8]

MS, I'm looking forward to when you actually do stuff!

[Metal Sonic]

Speak for yourself, lurker scumcho

[Nachomamma8]

I have over 500 posts in this game. I've done my time, and so am taking a backseat position for a moment.

[Metal Sonic]

ofc

that was so bad

i think you are hinting to us that "guys im scum but I dont want to break bork's heart by gamethrowing lynch me already"

suddenly <fuck this and lynch nacho> becomes a viable option

but I should not be reckless

[borkjerfkin]

So apparently Metal Sonic has been tempbanned. I am required to replace him.

[BROseidon]

FINALLY DONE:

Okay what on earth is this metal sonic wagon

This seems so weird

umm Orc i really have no clue why the MS wagon... could be a counterwagon? Especially if there are two scum teams....

This has been pointed out, but this looks incriminating given the way Orc was on MS early.

MS maybe you should slow down on the reading dude and you might get it..... Sometimes when you read really fast you miss stuffs.

More coaching.

Still a lot of Orc/Nacho interactions through day two, and they still feel very natural.

If AJ flips town, my scumdar is broken and I'll probably try to pull a hard reset. We'll leave the townblock as orc, B&B, Cabd, Ghostlin, GiF. Then we'll split people in the townblock to interrogate other members that they aren't so convinced about, no interventions. Then we make another decision, reform the second ring of the townblock, lynch someone else.

This is a very natural reaction to the AJ mislynch. Inclusion of Orc is null because of the fact that he was a universal townread. Rest of this post is great.

also, lets discuss the 3 kills at night

This looks really bad. Venmar flipping hider should have made it obvious what had happened. It looks like scum saying “let’s let the town do the work so on the off chance they don’t see what’s going on I don’t have to reveal anything.”

aj the epic leaning scum

aj leaning town now

aj hasn't displayed anything scummy as of yet that I can see, so he will be a null-town until i can read him further but nothing extremely incriminating that I picked up on as of yet.

But you had him as scum in 1153?

^Pre iso


I iso'd cabd and aj right now,
aj is a lot more helpful than i thought. upgraded to town

But you had him as town in 1391?

This looks bad for MS because Orc’s followup is weak; it looks like distancing. Orc starts pushing the MS case during the day a bit, but he doesn’t push it too hard. He even goes so far as to saying that Varsoon and MS should be the lynchppool the next day. As soon as he decides to associative tell hunt off of Rach, he immediately jumps back to tunneling Varsoon and drops the MS point. He even brings up a few other people towards the end of the day, but not MS.

it should be obvious why I'm currently alive

Why not just say what that reason is outright?

you started voting Sajin the next day
you could've scumhunted elsewhere while voting TD, but you didn't. Why?

MS never really answers this question as to why he doesn’t scumhunt.

Metal’s push onto Nacho is fairly weak. The core of the argument is “Nacho usually plays a very good town game. Since he’s not doing that this game, he must be scum.” It ignores the fact that Nacho was aggressive all game in a way that is not true of what I’ve seen of his scumgame (WOOHOO CAN TALK ABOUT JOBPICK NOW). People can be wrong, which would explain why Nacho was kept alive for so long.

Nacho consistently asks questions in an attempt to engage Nacho, and Metal’s responses are disengaged. Not just terse, but he doesn’t try to forward the conversation at all. 3669 is an example of the type of post that I’m talking about.

Nacho: MS, TD, SAD
SAD: MS, TD, Nacho
MS: TD, Nacho, SAD
TD: Nacho, MS, BRO

Just came across this. GiF also has MS as a scum read, IIRC. That is a lot of people agreeing on a single read. Even if TD/GiF were faking reads about each other, they still needed to find that bluescum eventually.

Nacho’s convo with TD about whether lynching blue or redscum first is better looks kind of bad because of how TD flipped. Nacho pushing for a redlynch could have been Nacho trying to move attention from bluescumNacho. MS siding with TD in this conversation is actually really strange and makes me pause for a second.

7 days deadline ooh lala lets afk here

too much speculation too much theories

too little evidence

Bad. There was plenty of evidence to lynch TD at that point, and he barely got away from a lynch that day. Metal was strangely part of the reason TD didn’t get lynched.

why are protowns Andy + Broseidon not dying? of course spinach was a better target but why not andy over gif?

food for thought

This was a really bad post, trying to push suspicion because “why are the protowns not dying.” That night’s kills were easily explainable: Blue needed a crossfire and got the hit on GiF, and red could only kill one of me/SA/Andy with SA guarding one of me and Andy.

4180 feels really honest.

In fact, here's my ultimatum:

If you do not sort your read on me via finally making a case for me being scum or finally just trusting me because this is the game where I am town and alive a while but still clearly and powerfully town, then I will vote you. I will vote you and I will not take my vote off you for the rest of the day. I need the paranoia to stop, the town needs the paranoia to stop; your indecision is the ONLY way the mafia can grab victory at this point, can't lynch mafia both times without you solidly on our side both days and if I can't get my mafia lynch, then I guess I'll be making a townie lynch to minimize moving parts and hope desperately that the mafia don't figure out the obvious way to figure out this situation. If you can't even show me the respect to give me that real scum case that isn't just a town case, then you aren't even listening to me anymore and we have a better chance of winning through blind luck as opposed to actually winning and that's just sad. I don't want to win this game like that. This game already holds a special place in my heart because it's been fucking awesome; so many townies in this game have stepped it the fuck up and played AMAZINGLY: B&B obviously slam dunked the game several times and was thoroughly fucking great and mollie is going to slaughter me if we lose after the time she's put in, Venmar confirmed a vanilla town N1 and pegged scum N2 with his hider role which is actually perfect play for a hider role, and he trusted his read OVER MINE because he knew my read was wrong, Cabd was a player I had never seen before, never heard about before who completely gained my respect as a player over the course of ONE GAME, Mac who towned all over the place Day 1, was an excellently strong townread that everyone felt in their hearts was town because he actually WAS that town, Ghostlin who had that step up on Day 4 and played like a fucking god, Rev who took that scummy townie mislynch slot and turned it into an aggressive town slot that actually became a threat worth bullets, waynegg who was around yesterday who prodded the thread until the thread came alive again and brought life back into the game, even BRO who sent me on a paranoid stint because he's playing amazingly.

There is too much time put into this game by too many people to just throw it to the ground and leave it to scum to shoot each other. The town, the scum, everyone deserves more than that bullshit ending; it's essentially a draw between scumteams in that case (and I'll certainly count it as such) if we fuck up here and mislynch because every mislynch we made before brought us closer to THIS moment; when the game is truly and finally POE'd and it's just time to fucking lynch scum. I have paranoid leanings (even on you, imagine that), but this game has almost lasted two months, it's 171 pages, I've read it enough times. I'm not going to make any amazing revelations, I'm not going to be confident in pegging scum based on one post when everyone has so much content to read them off. And at this point, I've defended myself enough. I've poured my heart and soul into this game above all others and I want the win more than I want anything else, but if you want to lynch me for no reason at all, I'm going to make damn sure you never mislynch me in a crucial moment ever again.

And hey, there REALLY isn't a case on me. Vague meta case from Metal means nothing; we have ONE completed game together and somehow he knows my meta? No. TD doesn't even have a reason and isn't pretending to have any real ones, which should point to my towniness in and of itself, and the rest is paranoid. My reasons for 2 and AJ lynch are very heavily documented. Varsoon was a lynch that I could have lurked through and been fine for, but hey, I was on it and I did it. I did it because you shot him and because the AJ townflip sort of rocked my world and I needed to recalibrate. You know how that works, you've been there before. I felt on top of the world after the 2 flip because I played pretty damn well during Day 1, and the 2 flip told me that I did something horribly, horribly wrong.

And finally, it makes no sense for me to leave you alive this long. Paranoia is a powerful, powerful thing especially when I KNOW you get paranoid of me in LyLo and I KNOW you're going to considering I just beat you as scum in LyLo, so fuck that.

all in all,
i'm tired of running
i'm tired of pussyfooting around
i've tried to defend the best i can from nothing
but after this, i'm done

Vote: TiphaineDeath

This is incredibly town.

And then we are at today where Metal’s arguments have been weak, although Nacho has taken a huge back seat to me which makes me a bit nervous.

[BROseidon]

Okay, now that that is done, I'll say this:

I still think it's Metal. There is a handful of stuff that looks bad for Nacho, but Metal looks much worse throughout everything. I'm not sure if the fact that we need a replacement should affect my actions here, but I don't think that someone coming in is going to be able to shake my scumread on the slot.

VOTE: MS

[borkjerfkin]

ProHawk replaces Metal Sonic!

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 7.1

[1] ProHawk (BROSeidon)

[2] Not Voting (ProHawk, Nachomamma8)

With 3 alive, it is 2 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2013-07-24 22:30:00)