Micro 328: Cult Vengeful -- GAME OVER

[Snarky]

FoS means Finger of Suspicion. Usually, it's for when you suspect someone less than the person you're voting for, but still want to point out that suspicion. I don't know if I suspect Hayato less than HighShroomish, however. I just can't vote two person at the same time.

k. Also why is it ok for you to lose the game by a VI?!

note to everyone: if someone quick hammers, irrespective of they are town or scum, they should be venge killed. There is no point in promoting such play.

snarky, you still havent answerd my question?

Forgot that question, I thought i was clear enough.

If a town VI member decided to hammer someone on day 1 and make us lose the game, I won't think town has lost the game, I will think a dumbass ruined it.

Don't know what you don't understand in that.

[Snarky]

Since I changed page, I want to make sure everyone saw I voted in post 49 and have put HS at L-1

[Snarky]

And i want to hear for him and Hayato before anyone hammers.

[HighShroomish]

I never said I was factoring in player ability and the like, snark. No odds do.

[kabooooom]

What do you want to di now HS? Lynch or no lynch?
and why haven't you answered any questions?!

[HighShroomish]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)

wrong! because if no lynch on day 1 and cult recruits on night 1, then its 2(scum)/5(players)=40%(chance to lynch a scum and if we dont lynch we lose). so here we only have one shot at lynching and if we fail in that, we lose because then there will be 2(scum)vs2(town).

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)

wrong! if there is a no lynch and scum doesnt recruit then on day 1, it will be 1(scum)/5(players)=20%(chance to lynch scum. if we mis lynch then it will be day 2). on day 2, it will be 1(scum)/4(players)=25%(chance to lynch scum, and if we mislynch it iwll be day 3) on day 3, it will be, 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33%(chance to get a scum, and all this calculation is only valid if scum doesnt recruit.)

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)

wrong! if we lynch town on d1 and there is no vengekill plus cult recruits, then we will lose. as there will be a 2(scum)vs 2(town) situation.

D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%

and 6v1 and 6v2 doesnt make any sense at all!!

-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

my contradictions with your calculations are in bold!

and when i said worst case scenario i meant if we dont lynch cult on day 1 itself! that should was pretty obvious.

have you even read my post HS??!! it doesnt seems you have!
infact, it doesnt seems you have read your own post!!
it seems you have just copy pasted that stuff from somewhere and posted it. do you even know what my point was??!!

and lets just directly get to the point, without assuming that scum would do stupid things! its a 'lynch' argument vs. a 'no lynch' argument.

lets talk no lynch first.

if we

no lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum doesnt recruit on night 1)

d1- 5 players alive and we no lynch!

n1- if scum doesnt recruits.

d2- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of getting scum. which is less. and if we lynch the scum we won, but if we misslynch, then its night 2.

n2- scum obv. recruits.

d3- now that the scum has recruited, its 2(scums)/4(players). as number of scum is equal to number of towns, scum wins.

case-2 (scum recruits on night 1)

d1-we no lynch.

n1- cult recruits.

d2- as cult has recruited, its 2(scums)/5(players)= 40% chance to recruit a scum. if we lynch town we lose. if we lynch scum we move to night 2.

n2- no actions happen

d3- as we lynched 1 scum on d2. its 1(scum)/4(players)= 25% chance to lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town, we proceed to n3.

n3- no actions.

d4- as we lynched a town on d3, its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch town, we lose. if we lynch scum we win.


now lets consider If we

lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum recruits on n1)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching a scum.if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town we proceed to n1.

n1- scum recruits, so its 2(scum)/4(town)=

50%

for a successful vengekill. if we can kill cult we win(Night Action and will precede Cult Recruitment in resolution order). if recruited player is killed, we will proceed to day 2. and if a town dies from venge kill, we loose.

d2- as recruited player is venge killed, its 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch scum we win, if we lynch town, we lose.

case-2 (scum doesnt recruit on n1, but recruits in n2)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we dont lynch scum and lynch town, we move to n1.

n1- its 1(scum)/4(players)=25% of venge killing a scum. if we vengekill scum, we win. if we vengekill town, we move to d2.

note: we have to vengekill on n1, as we dont know if scum decided to recruit of not. so no venge killing on n1 is not an option.

d2- its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch a scum we win, if we lynch a town, we lose. if we no lynch then we move to n2.

n2- cult chooses to recruit 1 player.

d3- its 2(scum)/3(players) and scum wins!


i think i cant be more clear.

First off- where you say I'm wrong, I'm actually right. You need to check your math again.
Where you first say I'm wrong 1st- you are assuming that we will Mislynch and that that automatically means that the lynched vengeful will kill town. If he/she kills scum, we proceed to the next day.
2nd- You introduced a completely different scenario that I even address later in my post. And you're wondering if I'm reading posts?
3rd- I'm actually correct here as well. I just forget to put LOSE.
You're correct about the 6v1 and 6v2 thing.
Your worst case scenario failed to mention the part where the lynched town kills another town that wasn't the recruited target. THAT is the worst case scenario. Not yours.
In your case 1 for the No Lynch- why would scum obviously recruit? And if it was obvious that scum would recruit, why would we lynch? Again, you fail to go into various situations that would happen. So again, your odds are lacking.
When you ask why haven't I answered questions- I hit the "first unread post" button and it linked me straight to this page. But the thing is- I have answered questions. Your blowing shit out of proportion. I mean seriously. ONE question which was "did you even get my point" which I don't feel the need to answer. Unless you meant the "explain your logic" in which I will point your own question back at you- did you even get my point? Or the line of rhetorical question Snarky asked me. Or, oh, is that it?

[hayatoBL]

Spoiler:

hei....

VOTE: No Lynch

Lol. I saw where your vote was but i think i misunderstood.

and yeah it was actually quite obvious. The one who confirmed the last gets to post first.

Tell me exactly how you misunderstood.

i was on phone. When i saw posts and posted my vote and stuff, i probably forgot whom did he vote for.

To misunderstand something and to forget something are too different things. Try answering correctly the first time.

Spoiler:

Since i'm the last to post, I feel obligated to put down a serious vote. And with the info I have right now, there is no one in particular, who I think is scum. A no lynch helps town more than a random lynch right now.

How would it help town to put a random player on L-1 right now?

Don't you think scum-idk would wait and see if someone hammers HS, instead of unvoting?

Pedit - Well. You're assuming there will be no VI in this game?

1.

why do you think scum idk would wait for someone to hammer when he can unvote and get a town card. Because getting a town card is easy, while if he keeps his vote, i and him will be both under suspicious.

2.

also, why do you think we wint have more info. In day 1?! We still have almost a week!!

1. First off, please don't answer questions I posted for someone else.

Scum-idk doing nothing and hoping for someone to accidentally hammer HS is something that I would do. And he didn't get any easy town-card like you suggested. In fact, he got a vote for doing so.

So, idk did something, which you think is town. snarky voted him because of that. And you didn't say anything about it?

2. I didn't say that.

[hayatoBL]

Now, I need everyone's opinion here. Do you think HighShroomish unconvincing blabber of numbers was uninformed, but genuine, or do you think it was scum manipulation? I believe in the latter, what's your take on it?

Tbh, I skimmed the part, where you guys were calculating probabilities. It made my head spin.

I believe, HS would be bad at math independent of alignment. (if he did calculated wrongly)

[hayatoBL]

Spoiler:

What does FoS mean? And why wouldn't you vote hayato for proposing no lynch?!

speaking of which, hayato why would you propose no lynch and still don't vote it?

highshroom, explain your logic, how is no lynch better than lynch?!

k. Hayato, i see you have voted no lynch ok. But explain me your logic.

Simple. I vote to lynch. The moment my vote is on a player, I'm ready to end the day with that players' lynch. That makes my vote stronger than yours.

Putting a vote to pressure someone, while declaring that it was a vote for pressure has a weak effect. (like what Snark did) Scum-HS knows that those aren't real vote. I won't budge if I'm scum-HS right now.

Right now I'm only ready for a No Lynch. Do I expect someone to actually hammer the No Lynch? No. The event of that happening is very unprobable. Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

[kabooooom]

Chances to get scum. (considering worst case scenario)
1 case: no lynch

a) if cult doesn't chooses to recruit:
day 2- 1/5=20% + or - skills
day 3- 1/4= 25%
day 4- 1/3= 33%

b) if cult chooses to recruit:
day 2- 2/5= 40%

2 case: we lynch
day 1- 1/5= 20%
night 1- 2/4= 50%!!

so i think it is obvious. Stats tell everything. The very idea and thought of supporting that idea is scummy!

Nice try. You don't factor in the vengekilling. Here are the odds with vengekilling.
Case 1- No Lynch(Cult Recruits)

wrong! because if no lynch on day 1 and cult recruits on night 1, then its 2(scum)/5(players)=40%(chance to lynch a scum and if we dont lynch we lose). so here we only have one shot at lynching and if we fail in that, we lose because then there will be 2(scum)vs2(town).

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 2/5- 40% Chance
Case 2- No Lynch(Cult Doesn't Recruit)

wrong! if there is a no lynch and scum doesnt recruit then on day 1, it will be 1(scum)/5(players)=20%(chance to lynch scum. if we mis lynch then it will be day 2). on day 2, it will be 1(scum)/4(players)=25%(chance to lynch scum, and if we mislynch it iwll be day 3) on day 3, it will be, 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33%(chance to get a scum, and all this calculation is only valid if scum doesnt recruit.)

D1- 1/5- 20% Chance
D2- 1/5- 20% Chance
Case 3- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Recruits)
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/2- LOSE
Case 4- We Lynch Town+Vengekill TOWN(Cult Doesn't Recruit(Which would be stupid))
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 1/3- 33.3%
Case 5- We Lynch Town+Vengekill SCUM
D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 0/4- WIN
Case 6- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Recruits)

wrong! if we lynch town on d1 and there is no vengekill plus cult recruits, then we will lose. as there will be a 2(scum)vs 2(town) situation.

D1- 1/5- 20%
D2- 2/4- 50%

and 6v1 and 6v2 doesnt make any sense at all!!

-6v1- Lynch Town
-D3- 2/3- 66%
-6v2- Lynch Scum
-D3- 1/4- 25%
Case 7- We Lynch Town+No Vengekill(Cult Doesn't Recruit)
D1- Same as all the others
D2- 1/4- 25%

I didn't even go all in depth. Your cases and odds were a bit lacking, kabooooom. You couldn't have done a worse case scenario if you haven't gone in depth on all the odds, which you obviously have not.
And Snarky, those odds assume random lynch and vengence targets. It doesn't account for player ability and knowledge.

my contradictions with your calculations are in bold!

and when i said worst case scenario i meant if we dont lynch cult on day 1 itself! that should was pretty obvious.

have you even read my post HS??!! it doesnt seems you have!
infact, it doesnt seems you have read your own post!!
it seems you have just copy pasted that stuff from somewhere and posted it. do you even know what my point was??!!

and lets just directly get to the point, without assuming that scum would do stupid things! its a 'lynch' argument vs. a 'no lynch' argument.

lets talk no lynch first.

if we

no lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum doesnt recruit on night 1)

d1- 5 players alive and we no lynch!

n1- if scum doesnt recruits.

d2- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of getting scum. which is less. and if we lynch the scum we won, but if we misslynch, then its night 2.

n2- scum obv. recruits.

d3- now that the scum has recruited, its 2(scums)/4(players). as number of scum is equal to number of towns, scum wins.

case-2 (scum recruits on night 1)

d1-we no lynch.

n1- cult recruits.

d2- as cult has recruited, its 2(scums)/5(players)= 40% chance to recruit a scum. if we lynch town we lose. if we lynch scum we move to night 2.

n2- no actions happen

d3- as we lynched 1 scum on d2. its 1(scum)/4(players)= 25% chance to lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town, we proceed to n3.

n3- no actions.

d4- as we lynched a town on d3, its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch town, we lose. if we lynch scum we win.


now lets consider If we

lynch

on day 1.

case-1 (scum recruits on n1)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching a scum.if we lynch scum, we win. if we lynch town we proceed to n1.

n1- scum recruits, so its 2(scum)/4(town)=

50%

for a successful vengekill. if we can kill cult we win(Night Action and will precede Cult Recruitment in resolution order). if recruited player is killed, we will proceed to day 2. and if a town dies from venge kill, we loose.

d2- as recruited player is venge killed, its 1(scum)/3(players)=33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch scum we win, if we lynch town, we lose.

case-2 (scum doesnt recruit on n1, but recruits in n2)

d1- 1(scum)/5(players)=20% chance of lynching scum. if we lynch scum, we win. if we dont lynch scum and lynch town, we move to n1.

n1- its 1(scum)/4(players)=25% of venge killing a scum. if we vengekill scum, we win. if we vengekill town, we move to d2.

note: we have to vengekill on n1, as we dont know if scum decided to recruit of not. so no venge killing on n1 is not an option.

d2- its 1(scum)/3(players)= 33.33% chance of lynching a scum. if we lynch a scum we win, if we lynch a town, we lose. if we no lynch then we move to n2.

n2- cult chooses to recruit 1 player.

d3- its 2(scum)/3(players) and scum wins!


i think i cant be more clear.

First off- where you say I'm wrong, I'm actually right. You need to check your math again.
Where you first say I'm wrong 1st- you are assuming that we will Mislynch and that that automatically means that the lynched vengeful will kill town. If he/she kills scum, we proceed to the next day.
2nd- You introduced a completely different scenario that I even address later in my post. And you're wondering if I'm reading posts?
3rd- I'm actually correct here as well. I just forget to put LOSE.
You're correct about the 6v1 and 6v2 thing.
Your worst case scenario failed to mention the part where the lynched town kills another town that wasn't the recruited target. THAT is the worst case scenario. Not yours.
In your case 1 for the No Lynch- why would scum obviously recruit? And if it was obvious that scum would recruit, why would we lynch? Again, you fail to go into various situations that would happen. So again, your odds are lacking.
When you ask why haven't I answered questions- I hit the "first unread post" button and it linked me straight to this page. But the thing is- I have answered questions. Your blowing shit out of proportion. I mean seriously. ONE question which was "did you even get my point" which I don't feel the need to answer. Unless you meant the "explain your logic" in which I will point your own question back at you- did you even get my point? Or the line of rhetorical question Snarky asked me. Or, oh, is that it?

your post go me soo irritated that i felt like reaping hairs from my head!!

but then i realised what you were doing..
Nice try trying to misrep me and baselessly arguing.

besides..the way you wrote your post shows more than enough we need to know about your intentions.

[Snarky]

Spoiler:

What does FoS mean? And why wouldn't you vote hayato for proposing no lynch?!

speaking of which, hayato why would you propose no lynch and still don't vote it?

highshroom, explain your logic, how is no lynch better than lynch?!

k. Hayato, i see you have voted no lynch ok. But explain me your logic.

Simple. I vote to lynch. The moment my vote is on a player, I'm ready to end the day with that players' lynch. That makes my vote stronger than yours.

Putting a vote to pressure someone, while declaring that it was a vote for pressure has a weak effect. (like what Snark did) Scum-HS knows that those aren't real vote. I won't budge if I'm scum-HS right now.

Right now I'm only ready for a No Lynch. Do I expect someone to actually hammer the No Lynch? No. The event of that happening is very unprobable. Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

I understand that you want your vote to have as much power as you can. But just stop voting No Lynch. Just vote, for, I don't know, John Lennon or Ludwig Boltzmann, anybody that's not in the game, or just don't vote at all, but don't vote No Lynch, it's bad bad bad for town on all the levels.

[Aegor]

Votecount 1.2

[2]

HighShroomish:

kabooooom, Snarky

[2]

No Lynch:

hayatoBL, HighShroomish

[1]

Not Voting:

idk

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline:

(expired on 2014-05-03 16:31:08)

Mod Notes

Please use spoiler tags to reduce the length of scrolly posts.

[Snarky]

Hayato, if you don't want to read all the numbers, all you've got to remember is this:

Here's something even more convincing for not No Lynching: We no lynch, cult doesn't recruit, we lost our vengekill and we've got 20% chance of winning D2, with no interactions to analyze.

Now, as you may have noticed, HS didn't comment on this sentence, nor did he comment on my post of numbers. He decided to attack Kaboooom's, which, with all respect due, was way harder to read. Why has he chosen the hardest way to go? Why has he decided to continue to argue with maths for the No Lynch even after the argument of my post 39 quoted above? All I see is that he wants to confuse the town with numbers, how is this a town attitude?

The scum agenda that attitude pursues is clear, however. The No Lynch would be uber-advantageous to the Cult, and if he can manages to confuse idk into hammering the No Lynch. the odds for scum will be extremely better. Me and kabooom have not fell for his gambit, the only hope he has left is idk.

^^That's my case on HS. It's not at all because he is bad at maths, I'm dead serious about this. Please (Hayato and idk) read it carefully, understand it, ask me questions about it if you want, and then answer my question again

Now, I need everyone's opinion here. Do you think HighShroomish unconvincing blabber of numbers was uninformed, but genuine, or do you think it was scum manipulation?

[HighShroomish]

@kab - show me where I'm baselessly segueing with you and please explain why it's baseless argueung.
Same thing with the "misreps''
And by the way, and you should know this already kab, I use my phone for nearly every post. Thank you very much.

@Snarky - I actually considered that option in my numbers. Thank you very much.

[Snarky]

Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,

REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

[Snarky]

@kab - show me where I'm baselessly segueing with you and please explain why it's baseless argueung.
Same thing with the "misreps''
And by the way, and you should know this already kab, I use my phone for nearly every post. Thank you very much.

@Snarky - I actually considered that option in my numbers. Thank you very much.

You haven't and you know it. I don't even know what the "option" you're talking about is. Stop your nonsense and

REMOVE YOUR ***************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!!

[HighShroomish]

Here's a comment on your numbers post- on you scenario of a D1 lynch-
Chance to vengekill scum- 50%. Original chance to lynch scum- 20%.
With your situation you count killing either the targeted recruit or the leader as a win. I'm too tired and pissed(NOT anybody here) to say anymore.
P-Edit: Go look at my numbers. I put in that situation. Go read my post. CAREFULLY. Don't try to avoid the fucking truth.

UNVOTE
VOTE: SNARKY

Happy now?

[Snarky]

Yes, I'm happy and relieved. Now,what's your reasoning on your vote on me, other than I don,t agree with your math?

Anyone but HS can skip the rest of the post, cause it's uninteresting number debate.

Chance to vengekill scum- 50%. Original chance to lynch scum- 20%.
With your situation you count killing either the targeted recruit or the leader as a win. I'm too tired and pissed(NOT anybody here) to say anymore.

I haven't said that at all, I said that if we lynch a recruit townie, we go to D2 and have another shot of killing the cult leader (1/4) which is completely true, you can't say no, it's a fact. And don't say it is not what I said in my original post, it's EXACTLY what I said in my original number post, go reread it.

And is this the situation your talking about?

Here's something even more convincing for not No Lynching: We no lynch, cult doesn't recruit, we lost our vengekill and we've got 20% chance of winning D2, with no interactions to analyze.

Yes, I saw you considered it. But you considered it as one of the options. Yet it's not one of the options, it's optimal play for the Cult if we No Lynch. It's what's going to happen, 100% of the odds, if the Cult leader is not completely retarded. How is this advantageous for town? (Oh and don't answer, it's just not advantageous for town at all).

[hayatoBL]

Spoiler:

Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,

REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

Ok. Somehow, I never thought about this.

UNVOTE:

[hayatoBL]

So let's forget about no lynch and decide on someone to lynch.

Right now I think Snarky is town. Kaboom or HS is scummy. Idk about idk. He's the big null.

[hayatoBL]

Snarky could have hammered that No Lynch and follow his own plan on 64 but didn't. Probably town.

I'll write more about my scum-reads next time. Too lazy right now.

[hayatoBL]

@Snarky. Don't tunnel HS too much. Read again on kabooom.

[Snarky]

I think kabooom is town for the same reason as you think I am town. He could have hammered the No Lynch and knew how it was advantageous for scum, yet didn't do it. For me, then, it's between you, HS and idk. I have a town read on you for now, and idk is lurking, so I don't really know where to be other than on HS.

[hayatoBL]

Well, kaboom might simply have not thought about it.


To make it clear, I see the advantage of hammering the No Lynch for in this:

Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,

REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

I don't think kaboom has expressed this advantage before. If he did, I would immediately unvote. Thus, it is possible scum-kabooom hadn't thought about it and didn't hammer. But I'll reread on kaboom.

Why am I town?

[hayatoBL]

Am I going to allow players the oppurtunity to act brazenly and hammer a No Lynch and try to explain themselves D2? Sure. Why not?

If idk is scum, and "acts brazently and hammers", as you said, he will recruit someone on night 1, get lynched on D2, and on D3 we'll be obliged to find his recruit with no more information we have now on D1, with only 25% chance of lynching right. "Brazenly hammering" is the optimal play for scum, so, you or HS,

REMOVE YOUR ************** NO LYNCH VOTE!!!

Wait a minute.

There's something wrong about this. If recruiter gets lynched D2. We have 25% chance to lynch the recruited on D3 PLUS 33% chance on D4. Which totals up to 50%.

25% + 75%*33.3% = 50%

Much higher than we could have achieved today, which is 40%.

20% + 80%*25% = 40%

That was a false alarm, Snarky. Scum wouldn't have acted brazenly and hammer like you said. Care to explain?