Micro 449: One Night Ultimate Werewolf (Game Over!)

[snscompt1]

Then by all means, please proceed.

[vonflare]

And couldnt just claim Villager? Early in mass claim would make me more willing NOT to claim a role in case of CC and proven scum. If proven scum, he gets voted. Ergo the werewolf woupdnt want to do this, but rather the minion.

Yet, NM is "proven scum" and not being voted..... that's a wifom argument.

We should be sitting down and seeing which of Vonflare/NM is the minion rather than just assuming.

Lol.

Stop talking to the scum he's obviously not going to scum slip.

[Titus]

Pretty sure fuzzy is werewolf, fuzzy is being unintentionally scummy, whereas sns' RQS and "I am confirmed seer" looks more like conciously scummy minion behaviour

Totally fine with lynching Fuzzy. NM is just playing it cool.

These two posts are a problem.

If we are supposing that one of NM or sns is minion, why would they BOTH pick the same werewolf? That's pushing anti-win con and I don't see them doing that.

Now to go find that claims post so I can document everything.

[Titus]

Werewolf:
Werewolf:
Minion:
Hunter: Card B
Seer: snscompt1(looked at AB)
Troublemaker:vettrock
Robber:ActionDan (second claim)
Villager:fuzzy
Villager:ika
Villager:vonflare
Villager:Card A

So unless we have new information I think we should vote fuzzy. I doubt that NM would have had Vonflare claim first if he was a Werewolf. Could be to throw us off, but wifom.

Going to vote fuzzy

Vote: Nightfall

This is misleading, although not sure if intentionally so.

Let's start breaking this down further.

We have Action Dan who first claims Hunter and then claims Robber, only after being told his intial claim is impossible. He picks ika to "vouch" for.

Meanwhile, if we have two wolves and a minion, Action Dan's fake makes a lot of sense. They have no idea what is in the center.

Still this means one villager must be in the center and is lying. That villager is the minion most likely.

ika is notoriously hard to lynch but buddying him is rather effective for anyone not named Titus.

Vettock is the trouble maker. He should probably claim who he swapped. We've all been assuming that Action Dan saw ika's card if honest, yet if vettrock is troublemaker, then we don't know that.

Things I want resolved

Why did AD fakeclaim? What motivations are doing so as either alignment?
Who did Vettock swap? We have firm positions from most everyone prior to Vettock claiming trouble maker. Let's see how that changes after he claims who he swapped.
Both possible cop scum are pointing to lynch my slot. Yet, if the cop is a minion as postulated, pointing at the werewolf is totally anti-wincon.

[Titus]

And couldnt just claim Villager? Early in mass claim would make me more willing NOT to claim a role in case of CC and proven scum. If proven scum, he gets voted. Ergo the werewolf woupdnt want to do this, but rather the minion.

Yet, NM is "proven scum" and not being voted..... that's a wifom argument.

We should be sitting down and seeing which of Vonflare/NM is the minion rather than just assuming.

Lol.

Stop talking to the scum he's obviously not going to scum slip.

Ftr, ika and I have gotten scum to slip before and then self-vote.

[vettrock]

For Titus:

I swaped ActionDan and ika. So if ActionDan is telling the truth about robbing ika, they are back to their original cards.

[Titus]

Ok I missed that.

Time for more scenario elimination...

[Not_Mafia]

This is a waste of time

[Titus]

Ok, supposing AD town...then ika is town. Confirmed. This is separate from Vettock's claim. If Vettock is lying, then AD would be a villager. If Vettock is telling the truth, AD is a robber. Both are town.
If AD is scum, then saying he swapped with ika makes sense because then it effectively causes ika to be lynched instead of him. If Vettock swapped ika and AD, then ika is actually unwitting scum and Action Dan is now currently town but stuck with a bad claim.

So we have, just narrowing down

AD Swaps with ika truthfully

AD Town, ika Town, Vettock Town
AD Town, ika Town, Vettock Scum
AD Scum, ika Town, Vettock Town, Thus Creating AD Town, ika Scum and Vettock town.
AD Scum, ika Town, Vettock Scum.

AD Scum, ika Scum and Vettock Scum is impossible due to the fact that would require four scum as that requires both seers to be town. Since neither has renounced their claim, that's impossible.

AD lying about his swap but started as Robber

AD is robber turned scum in this scenario.
He swaps originally with a werewolf maybe ika, maybe not.
He then, knowing said player is actually the robber, pushes to get them lynched.
Vettock then claims he swapped AD with ika.
Thus ActionDan is suddenly town again.

What we know now

One villager is in the center unless both cops are scum. If either one is telling the truth, then one of the villagers must be lying.
Both the seers cannot be telling the truth. They also have painted a picture of The Villager card being both the A and the C card. In any scenario where NM is telling the truth, scum can only be one minion and one werewolf. In a scenario where sns is telling the truth, scum can have any possible combination of scum roles.
If ActionDan saw a town card with ika, legitimately then ika is town. If ActionDan is lying scum, then ika may or may not be scum.

[Titus]

AD Orignally town robber swapping with scum. AD would push them, unless he thought they were swapped back and he was scum. He claimed to have swapped with ika first before the troublemaker swap. He couldn't risk that because if Vettock said he swaped AD and who he robbed and they were scum, he'd wind up pointing the finger at himself.

If AD is currently scum, he did not swap with ika. He swapped with someone else.

[Not_Mafia]

Please just vote nightfall, you've already lost

[Titus]

I'm not voting nightfall until I've cracked this.

[Not_Mafia]

We already know everything you're going to tell us. You're just posting this to look like you're doing something

[snscompt1]

On mobile. Will respond tomorrow.

[ActionDan]

To basically nullify all of these alternative theories:
Firstly dual scum seer claims are highly improbable and I contend would only happen in the event there is one minion one werewolf and that werewolf saw the seer card in the middle. In this case vettrock ika I and everyone else is town.

Now, assuming the much more logical proposition that one of the seers is scum and one is town we have the following:
1 claimed villager is scum, 1 claimed seer is scum. It is therefore impossible that both me and vettrock started as scum. If vettrock is scum that means both me and ika are town and somehow vettrock made a lucky guess to claim trouble maker. If I started as scum and ika was town, I would have revealed that by now. If I started as town robber and I robbed from scum ika, I would have revealed that by now. If I was town robber and robbed from scum anyone else I would have revealed that by now had I reason to think ika started as town.

Thus we are left with one and only one maybe plausible scenario different from the common concenus: Me an Ika both started off as scum. Which isn't correct. But that's the only one to consider other than the obvious one

[vonflare]

Not_Mafia, who are you voting for?

[Not_Mafia]

Why ask a question you already know the answer to?

[Titus]

@Ad, your so called logical scenario does not explain why you fake claimed hunter at all. I'm utterly convinced there's more people who think they are scum versus those who actually are.

Also, if you robbed from someone else and saw minion, that makes more sense. Or better yet, Both Robber and Hunter are in the center. You buddy the towniest person who claims villager. We have a dual werewolf set up.

All your propositions start from you telling the truth. I don't think you are. I don't see any reason for a town robber to fakeclaim hunter. I've been asking for help for a reason otherwise.

[Titus]

Seriously, no one giving AD flack over his botched claim is suspicious as fuck.

Both minions wanting to lynch the same slot... that means one must be playing Anti-wincon at best.

The whole presume the cop is a minion is shit. The cop's a wolf.

[Titus]

I'm pretty sure that

1) sns is actually the seer but wrong on me. AD's revocation doesn't make sense as either alignment otherwise. Add in NM's reluctance to actually scumhunt and help break this now that my slot isn't lynchbait is also telling. He was utterly convinced that I was scumhunting sns... but now he's also arguing to lynch me.
2) NM is minion or werewolf.
3) AD's play doesn't make sense from a town perspective and I want an explanation why.
4)

If I was town robber and robbed from scum anyone else I would have revealed that by now had I reason to think ika started as town.

That's blantantly false as you were forced to claim before Vettock did.

[ActionDan]

I fakeclaimed because I could. One reason was to see if any of the seers said anything and another was to wait for trouble maker to claim targets to decide whether to out my own result or not

[ActionDan]

That's blantantly false as you were forced to claim before Vettock did.

Obviously in case I lied.

[vonflare]

Why ask a question you already know the answer to?

Answer the question

[Not_Mafia]

You know my answer. So answer my question.

[vonflare]

Why ask a question you already know the answer to?

Are you being difficult on purpose?