Newbie 1673: University of Mafiascum Class 108 - D4- OVER!

[soulmonarch]

Hello town!

I just replaced in but I've more or less caught up on events to this point. It's obvious that RVS has long past, so I guess I don't get to use the good old Magic Eight Ball to make decisions for me. *sob* You'll find me posting at LEAST once a day and likely a fair bit more. I try and shoot for content posts, rather than a bunch of short one liners in quick succession.

Since I'm the new arrival, it's only to provide some kind of list of my impressions so far. It don't really have a read list just yet... but a few people have really stuck out so far:

------

Kahlan:

I have have found most of the interactions around Kahlan very interesting, but the situation with EE right at the start really set the tone. EE jumps on her fast and early for a very minor noob move and doesn't let up pressure until he is forced to deal with Drixx. She has one quote that really sticks out to me:

...clearly I can't be a newbie in a newbie game.

This feels genuine to me, at least. Town seems likely. It would take some serious talent to pull off a long con this way.

Extrapolated Eagle:

Holy aggressive player, Batman! Or overly defensive? *shrug* Could be either.

Throws his vote around like it's a hot potato. Most (all?) of his votes have been OMGUS, though he always tries to provide additional reasoning for it. Only player he has not had it out with yet is Usted, it seems. (Can't count Dom or myself, obviously.) His voting history and timing feel scummy. His logic loopholes (examples with Ness and Drixx especially) are slightly scummy. And yet -- I can't get over how how rediculously aggressive and easy to offend he is. No scum player would do that, right?

Drixx:

No, I don't find starting a wagon on EE to be scummy. However, I do think he pulled his punches on the reaction test very early, which is a little weird. He reasoning on his scumhunting has been solid so far. In fact, the one thing that makes me suspicious is that I know I'm reading him a little bit town due to his good logic and effective hunting.

Ness:

The early scumtell on Drixx in 68 seemed out of place. Dropping his argument with EE in 102 seemed a little weird to me. So did the Drixx vote in 112. I feel like these are valuable information, but don't have the pieces put together yet.

Usted:

One interaction stands out: In 131 he straight up explains Drixx's logic, which feels like a bad move for scum. (Since they have daytalk, at least.) But then he follows up directly with a Drixx / Ness team explaination, which totally makes the prior post look like a (badly-executed) setup. It seems like it could have just been a joke, but it stuck out in my mind. nonetheless.

------

Workdawg, Newbie, I have nothing to say about you guys just yet. (Sorry. ) Dom is still V/LA, of course.

So I've seen the Usted / EE team postulated, but that just seems waaaaay too obvious. And the Drixx / Ness idea from earlier just didn't strike me right either, unless it's a really long con. (Hey, it could happen.)

But you know what would be kind of amazing? Ness / EE. It they didn't have daytalk, I probably would not even suggest it. But I think with the right coordination it could happen. If nothing else, it would at least resolve the issues I cannot explain about either of them.

There... have I stirred the pot enough?

[soulmonarch]

From what I've heard and my experience, scum are most often in the middle of the wagon

I agree that this is the most common scenario. However, especially early on D1, scum could have a lot to gain by starting -- or at least pushing -- a wagon on their team mate.

Assume, for instance, that Ness is partnered with EE:

- EE is already established as suspecting Drixx in 50.
- Ness establishes suspicion on both EE and Drixx in 72.
- Ness hops on EE wagon in 72. (Whether this starts the wagon or pushes it is irrelevant to the supposition.)
- Ness busses EE through until 102 where he gives it up, despite it being made clear that they both still disagree and suspect each other.

This is an incredibly safe maneuver overall, because we all know that no one is getting lynched that early in the game.

The goal would be to set up EE as an overly aggressive player. Because as I noted last time, scum would be crazy to draw so much attention to themselves, right? So EE remains in some small amount of danger, but really not any worse than any run of the mill aggressive townie might be. Meanwhile, Ness has had a chance to buss without actually getting his partner lynched. Now EE has an established persona and can accuse people indiscriminately to muddy the waters, either causing a no-lynch D1 or maybe even hitting gold and getting the town to lynch their own. At the same time, Ness can play the somewhat calmer traditional scum role, stepping in to push wagons in the middle and try to keep enough suspicion off him to make it to the endgame.

Too complicated, maybe? But everyone here (aside from Kahlan) appears to have some experience, and scum *does& get daytalk, which would help immensely.

So I'm gonna go out on a limb and...

VOTE: N e s s

[soulmonarch]

@ Newbie

... EE already said scum are usually in middle of the wagon so if Ness were to push wagons in the middle, wouldn't that make it obvious?

EE made a very valid point: Scum is

usually

in the middle of a wagon. (Note the emphasis.)

The main goal of scum is to be above suspicion whenever possible. After the lynching, everyone will try and figure who actually DROVE the wagon to Lynchville. Sure, the two people most suspected are typically the guy who rented the car (first person) and the guy who actually tossed the body in the trunk (the last person.) Everyone else in the wagon shouting encouragement has a little bit more plausible deniability. But make no mistake, if the lynchee flips town, every single person in that wagon is going to get scrutized pretty heavily.

On the morning of D2, we will have a corpse (two, actually) on our hands to provide our first bit of real evidence. Since everyone on the wagon will be suspected, scum only has to be somewhat less suspicious than the townies who participated. If they think they can do that while starting a wagon or hammering, they'll try it. But usually the middle is a lot safer.

But hey, safe doesn't win wars, right? And scum makes as many mistakes as town does, they are just better informed.

------

@ Kahlan

Now I agree and understand that it would be smart for someone to play up the newb role if they were scum but saying I (Kahlan) Should be posting questions in the thread if I were scum even though I'm not scum makes it almost seem like I would be scum by asking questions as a newb intentional by you or not.

Okay people my head hurts.. it might be from thinking about all this scum business or the headache I have..I'll probably blame the

thinking

headache. I'll be back on tomorrow.

Ah ha! I see you have discovered the wine in front of me! Trust me: Both cups are poisoned. You are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

If you stop asking your questions, anyone who implicated you can now say: "See? She stopped when I confronted her! I must be right!" If you continue asking the questions, they may continue to implicate you... but at least you will have your questions answered!

[soulmonarch]

Quick post here and I'll be back later this evening:

Soul seems not afraid of disagreements and seems like they want the truth more than they are afraid of being lynched. I like they're posts. I would not lynch soul today if my life depended on it, unless they do something really scummy.

Aw, thanks! I think.

I kinda spent most of my first game (town) in fear of being misunderstood and lynched and I let it color a lot of what I said. Looking back on it, I realize I was just hurting my team in the long run.

The Dom is also nasty. A huge amount of nope there. Not interested in sharing it appears. Lurks quite a bit. I would totally lynch this today if they don't show up.

Damn. I hate to admit this, but Dom is

reeeeeaaaaalllly

quiet. Like -- active lurker quiet.

Regardless of my feelings on anyone else here, I can't ignore that. It's nearing policy lynch status, which bothers me immensely.

[soulmonarch]

I'm with Workdawg on a couple points: I don't like straight up reads lists, for similar reasons. However, you will find me writing up a list of people on occasion, especially when it gets quiet like it is now. But please never confuse that with being a full status report of how I feel about everyone at the moment. It's a just list of things I want to talk about, that's all. And as a sidenote: In general, I always found it more useful to discuss our scum reads than our town reads.

Second, god I hate policy lynching.

I REALLY hate policy lynches in newbie games. Newbies make stupid mistakes and while the chances of a newbie being scum aren't insignificant, it seems to me they will more often accidentally scum tell vs just making newbie mistakes. But he's an SE. He has no excuse for newbie mistakes and thus should be exempt from the previous statement. That said...

Not only has he been all but absent, but the few posts he has made are all things that others have already pointed out. He has been zero help so far. Does that make him scum? Not necessarily. Right now though, he's on the top of my list of "bad town". If we can't come to a consensus about who to lynch before the deadline, I would be okay with lynching him.

As I posted above, we need to know if TheDom is really V/LA or not

I hate policy lynches regardless of game type / skill level -- but yes, especially in newbie games. They basically just stall the game for a day cycle and rarely provide any useful information. Even if you somehow get a scum kill out of it, it isn't very satisfying.

The thing that bothers me more than anything is that it's just so inconsiderate. If you aren't going to put in the time, don't sign up for the game. If unforeseen circumstances arise that prevent you from playing, get a replacement. It's bad enough if a regular player does it, but ICs / SEs are supposed to be here to provide better flow to the game, not worse.

For the record, I believe Dom was off V/LA on Dec 30th. But if he

is

somehow still in V/LA that would mean he's out for almost the entirety of D1. O_o That can't be allowed.

-----

Activity in general has sort of dropped off, which is making things difficult. But here's your list, with some of the observations I've been having lately:

Ness -

Went dark after I voted him with a single exasperated post and doesn't appear to have logged in since. That isn't encouraging. Although several people have echoed suspicion and/or questions for Ness, no one else has yet voted him just yet. After writing comments below, I now realize that Workdawg and Newbie have been on him for longer than I'd thought. (Not that they were the only ones.) I'd hate to think he dropped out -- maybe it was just a hell of a New Year's party -- regardless, it's hard to change my vote this way.

EE -

As noted previously, you have been a bit of a null read to me the whole time. Lots of scum reads balanced by lots of town reads. I am noting that the tone of your posts has changed considerably, right around the time I replaced in. (Not necessarily alignment indicative, just noting it for later.) Partially as an answer to your earlier question: I really don't think I understand your rationale for hunting Kahlan, and I'd be interested if you'd explain it.

Kahlan -

I consider the 'noobness' genuine. However, I have second guessed my alignment read multiple times here. I don't have anything conclusive I feel like sharing just yet. One thing though: There was some good scumhunting going on in 156 and 200. Come back and talk more.

Drixx -

You were talkative at first, now you are very quiet. (Interesting parallel: Your posts changed dramatically right about the same time as EEs did.) I kinda have issues with the 'mysterious private thoughts' bit, because it reduces the amount of interaction going on in the thread. I have private thoughts too, so I understand where you're coming from -- but don't keep them private so long that there is no way to act on anything before deadline.

Newbie -

It worries me how much you fly under my radar. And I just realized you've been on Ness a lot longer than I thought. (Noted above.)

Workdawg -

I'm not having much luck here. His usefulness as an SE is perhaps blinding me to the obvious. Somebody pitch me a wild scum theory about him so I can try to prove / disprove it!

Usted -

Found 219 interesting. (Echoed by Drixx.) Looking back at ISO, he doesn't have as much content as I thought he did. I kind of wish I felt a more townie vibe here.

Dominator -

Literally doesn't rate a mention. Eight posts with barely fifty word between them, and that's counting his confirmation. (Which was more verbose than most of his posts.)

-----

As noted, my vote stays on Ness for now. And I am always interested in listening to anyone who wants to sway that vote in either direction.

[soulmonarch]

Quick check in here folks:

I think (mostly) everyone is in agreement, it is too early in the day to go hammering if we can avoid it. There is still plenty of time to hear more from Ness. Yeah, I've been scumreading him hard. But I *want* to hear his side of the story, along with any alternate theories he has. Because he is completely correct about one very big point:

Well it seems like i'm being lynched. Well, hopefully my mislynch will help the town in some way.

Even assuming the worst case -- he offers up his best spiel, gets lynched, flips town -- that information combined with his known alignment might very well secure a town victory at some point. Even if he got lynched D1, he could still win.

That, and the situation with Dom is really annoying me. Scanning his meta isn't much help except to confirm that this doesn't seem considerably out of the norm for him. (Which is precisely zero help.)

[soulmonarch]

Why not?

There are a few I wouldn't mind lynching but I haven't narrowed it down.

What I'm asking is why not me?

Looks like The Dom wants to be lynched.. @TheDom Guilty of being scum or just tried of playing the game? I'll keep my vote on him for now.

*sigh*

That's the rub: He apparently plays pretty much all his games like this -- at least all the ones I looked at -- so it isn't much of a tell either way.

The odds say he only has about a 20% chance of drawing a scum roll. So even though he's more likely to be town, we are forced to confront the fact that he may be so useless that *not* lynching him will actually lose us the game due to his bad play. (Scum certainly won't nightkill someone like that.) Of course, there is the proportionally smaller chance that he really

is

scum -- which would only make allowing him to live even more galling.

Hence, killing him is a "policy lynch", because in many ways we had no other option. In the worst case, scum stays at full strength and we start D2 nothing to discuss but the choice of nightkill -- but at least it rids us of a useless player who is essentially sabotaging the game for us. At the absolute best, he flips scum and we feel some measure of satisfaction -- not a terribly likely circumstance and the only information we gain from it is the knowledge that the other scum never had much of a partner in the first place. (To be honest, I think that actually makes them much harder to spot.)

I consider what he's doing as tantamount to MafiaScum trolling, but to my knowledge there is no rule against it.

[soulmonarch]

Soulmarch and Kahlan just jumped up the scum list with blatant opportunism on display.

*head tilt*

If you really do think that, then you read things

reeeeeaally

weird. What part of anything I have written regarding the situation with Dom reads as "opportunistic" to you? (I would expect it should read as "a little upset, because I feel as if our game is being trolled.")

One might note that I have been quite clear on my stance on this issue as far back as post 224. What are you saying I need to switch my vote to Dom right now in order to be considered legit in your eyes?

Honestly Drixx, I haven't seen anything out of you since 154 other than a little bit of wild speculation and some mysterious posturing. And everything prior to that was primarily just a big fight with EE. I'm not calling you scum yet, but you sure aren't being helpful to town either.

Kahlan, at least, is participating and scumhunting. (And actually presenting thoughts which can be seen and therefore critiqued by everyone else.) Same with Workdawg and Newbie. Those are actually tells which *can* be interpreted as town. Your silence accompanied by occasional accusatory outbursts or ambiguous statements cannot.

[soulmonarch]

Scum classically go on the attack when they feel threatened.

See #285.

Someone missed #272 apparently.

Your logic implies that you are allowed to baselessly accuse people as you see fit -- but if the target dares to find that action to be suspicious in any way and rebuts the point, it confirms them as scum.

A bizarre confirmation bias, to say the least. I don't believe anyone here requires a deeper explanation of how insane that logic is.

I do see 272, by the way. I appreciate you notifying us of V/LA status from the 4th-6th. However, I cited recalcitrant behavior beginning as early as the the 28th. And, if you had not noted it, I at least implied that your posting prior to that date was focused solely on attacking EE and therefore could potentially be scummy -- though that point could at least be rebutted, should you care to try.

[soulmonarch]

Scum classically go on the attack when they feel threatened.

See #285.

Someone missed #272 apparently.

Your logic implies that you are allowed to baselessly accuse people as you see fit -- but if the target dares to find that action to be suspicious in any way and rebuts the point, it confirms them as scum.

A bizarre confirmation bias, to say the least. I don't believe anyone here requires a deeper explanation of how insane that logic is.

I do see 272, by the way. I appreciate you notifying us of V/LA status from the 4th-6th. However, I cited recalcitrant behavior beginning as early as the the 28th. And, if you had not noted it, I at least implied that your posting prior to that date was focused solely on attacking EE and therefore could potentially be scummy -- though that point could at least be rebutted, should you care to try.

You could explain how your post wasn't opportunistic. Instead, you chose to attack me. I simply pointed out that a classic scum tactic is to attack when someone points out something they do that is scummy. Here you are continuing to attack.

Me calling your post opportunistic isn't baseless just because you say so. You made a post advocating that we policy lynch someone and went so far as to suggest that they are intentionally joining games on this site just to troll people. You even talked about site rules. The implication of your post is that you believe he should be sitebanned and that we should lynch him whether or not we have any reason to believe he is scum because he's just a troll.

I predict you will attack me again instead of responding. Prove a jaded soul wrong?

When you were only offering your

opinion

of me (e.g. "blatantly opportunistic", end of story) there was really very little to discuss. By definition, any opinion offered without backing rationale is "baseless." That is quite literally what the word means. Even simply saying that "it's a gut feeling" would offer some rationale, even if not something particularly defensible or useful at the moment. However, what you just wrote down is considerably better. Now I actually have a way to actually respond to you, and the rest of the town is able to judge for themselves whether or not they agree with your opinion. (And potentially condemn me for it, I they choose to.)

In other words: Thank you, that is exactly what I was asking for.

Now to answer:

Yes, my posts explicitly say that I believe his 'active lurking' playstyle is actively harmful to the game of forum Mafia in general and especially a smaller newbie game. I personally stand by that. However, it is not mine to say that he is deliberately trolling, and Workdawg stepped up to correct me about that in 279, which is fair.

You also suggest that I implied that he should be banned and that we should lynch him because he is a troll. I can see why you may have inferred the first point, and though you took it to a much more extreme conclusion than I would have, I will freely admit that I do wish there was at least some type of corrective action that could be taken. The second part I wish to refute completely. I believe I was fairly clear in 278 that reason I dislike policy lynches so much is precisely because they are not really an option, statistically speaking. In a larger game, there would be more wiggle room -- but in a nine person game, he has to go on the first day or town may suffer a significant disadvantage. A policy lynch is never about killing a troll, it's about attempting to salvage a bad situation.

I want to take a moment to note one thing: You are the IC. Teaching about good game theory is absolutely within your purview. So if you believe this is an over-reaction on my part or that my view on the necessity of policy lynches is inaccurate, it would be absolutely acceptable for you to attempt re-educate me. I do not say you are required to so, of course, but I would certainly listen if you did. That is, after all, why I came back to a newbie game instead of heading out to the rest of the site.

-----

And on with the final points:

Poking back when put on the spot is the most human of reactions, town or scum. Especially in games with less experienced players, it would seem. In this case specifically, I am poking at you for the same reason you are poking me: It generates content and might eventually provide reads. Even just you attacking me is helpful, as I see it. Assuming I did get lynched, town might be able to make some educated choices later by looking back.

In all honestly, if I was going to call me out for something scummy, I'd have picked something else to draw me up on. It's hard to make a good case why scum would ever want to kill off Dom. If he's town, leaving him in the game is a huge boon to their side. Even assuming he is scum, it would still be preferable to push the case on someone else instead.

[soulmonarch]

Sorry Zar, I've been checking the thread every few hours, but nothing

happening

darn it.

The game has gotten pretty stale for me and it's nearing the deadline so I will put Ness back to L-1.
I think it's the best thing I could do under the circumstances.

VOTE: Ness

Ness is now at L-1.

Please do not hammer before stating an intent to hammer and give others more time to discuss.

For what reasoning? How is that the best thing you could do when looking for reads?

This is scum here folks, your band wagoning me for litterally no reasoning/not giving any feedback as to why this is. You'll enjoy my flip guys,

newbie is mafia after i'm lynched.

Dude, you've let it go this long without giving the people what they have been asking you for, why are you surprised she put her vote back on you? Newb has been pretty transparent so far about this.

The way I'm seeing it right now:

- I could be convinced to lynch Ness or Dom, based almost solely on lack of interaction with the game. I honestly get the scummier vibe from Ness -- he already had my vote from a while ago, so I have not changed it. Dom is almost aggressively inactive. I am willing to vote on him, but I'm also harboring the hope that he replaces out so we can have someone active.

- Drixx is a weird wildcard, to me. I personally read scum, with all the ambiguous secret knowledge claims but total lack of conclusive action. But then, I've also seen a number of players act similarly and be town. Either way, with two other people higher on the list, it's easy to not be worried about him for right now.

- Usted and EE are both somewhat quiet now, with no one pointing fingers at them. I've had suspicions about both previously, but the game been slow and not much has been going on to tip the scale either way. *shrug*

- Kahlan / Workdawg / Newb are the only ones that I feel like have been beneficial to town for a while now. Acknowledged, sneaky scum might very do that, but at the moment being quieter would just be so much simpler, so I lean town.

-----

Believe me, I wish there was more to go on right now too. But this is what we've got. If anyone has some fancy conclusions or write ups to share, now is kind of the time to do it.

[soulmonarch]

Good advice by all, in my opinion. Especially this bit by Drixx:

The game is a puzzle for you to solve, and there's literally nothing really bad that can actually happen to you. A mislynch is an opportunity to /in for the next game.

When playing you will be attacked. It is not a matter of "if" -- only "when". (Frequently, it will happen right when you were doing your absolute best to help the town too.) But one of the cooler aspects to the game is that you don't necessarily lose if you die; this isn't a 'last man standing' kind of deal. Dead townies provide a lot of useful information to potentially win with! In fact, pretty much the only way you *can* consistently let down your town is by being too quiet or not wielding your vote.

But more important than winning any particular game, is whether you're having fun! I know I'd prefer to keep losing in active, enjoyable games rather than keep winning boring ones.

[soulmonarch]

Well i'm officially boned, hope my mislynch will help somehow.

I hope you understand though -- we can't just call it off based

solely

off your insistence that you will flip town.

I know this sounds a little rude, but it's truth and hopefully taken as advice:

If you do flip town, my only real regret will be that you didn't talk more and earlier.

If you are town, it is your job to defend your actions as best you can. Heck, you might defend yourself half the day and

still

get mislynched. For all I know, I might be NKed this evening -- or potentially lynched tomorrow for my part in your wagon. While I remain alive it is my responsibility to answer every question people put to me as best I can; even if it doesn't prevent me from getting killed, my death will cast everything I said in a new light and may help track down scum. Then I will be able to follow along with this game while I am waiting for the next knowing that I may have helped my team to a win.

I appreciate you putting up some information, even if I don't agree with your logic regarding Workdawg and myself. Try to remember that you are asking us to not vote for you based on nothing other than your word -- and town has every reason to suspicious of a plea to emotion.

----

Also: Hey Huntress! I forgot to welcome you last time!

[soulmonarch]

I do have to say that we now have had three intents given and still no hammer. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing but it's certainly a strange thing.

Won't disagree with that assessment.

But on that note: You aren't voting for anyone at the moment either.

@Ness. I'm going to revote you at about this time tomorrow if none of my questions are answered. We have two days left in today and I'm not doing this last minute stuff.

If people are waiting around to get information from him, I'm not against that at all. But deadline is like... six hours away? (I think? My math might be bad.)

[soulmonarch]

Dang. So this isn't quite the D2 I would have hoped for.

Having gone back through and re-read the whole game, Ness' posts don't seem any "townier" even knowing his alignment for certain. As he acknowledged, he sort of torpedoed himself early and then just never really recovered. Which is really unfortunate because it had most everyone on the same page and doesn't make for good reading. What's more, I'm not sure what I make of Drixx being the night kill choice. Considering his late day interactions and the number of fingers pointed his way, it would have expected him to have been left alive. But at the same time, it he hinted multiple times that he was working up to something that he never shared -- so I suppose now we'll never know if he had something good. >< All things considered though, I can think of at least four people I'd have considered more likely.

Well, let's have a go with some wild speculation! I don't think I can come up with much on the Ness lynching right now, so I'll start with:

-----

"Who killed Drixx?"

(Disclaimer: All are hypothetical situations. Maybe not all of them are particularly plausible, but each is presented as if it is a statement of fact. Debunk, confirm, add to, or replace stories as you see fit.)

- EE wanted Drixx dead, because they had a tiff earlier in the game and Drixx outright called him as scum in 51. What's more, Drixx caught him muddying the waters in 292. It was only a matter of time before Drixx circled back around to try and rally the town against him. EE did it, in the study, with the candlestick!

- Usted wanted Drixx dead, because the last thing Drixx said in D1 was to declare his intent to push Usted in 367. Not wanting the spotlight on him tomorrow -- knowing Drixx had been pondering him since at least 223 -- it didn't take much for Usted to want to kill Drixx. It was Usted, in the garden, with the pistol!

- Soulmonarch wanted Drixx dead

(only fair to do me too right?)

, because Drixx caught him red-headed in 281. Sure, he was conveniently derailed and unvoted in 292, but it's pretty obvious that was only because his current gambit was over. Drixx was obviously brooding over some good reads and Soulmonarch didn't really want to be brought up again as one of them. Soulmonarch killed him, in the dining room, with the lead pipe!

- Workdawg wanted Drixx dead because he recognized that Drixx wielded enough influence to turn the town and nab him... or his partner. In fact, Workdawg had been doing a good job of playing a townie so far -- but Drixx was hunting around his partner and Workdawg wasn't willing to give up his teammate... just yet! It was Workdawg, in the kitchen, with the rope!

- Newbie wanted Drixx dead, because she knew it was the perfect opportunity. She hadn't had any real argument with Drixx yet. His death would only confuse the rest of the town... killing him was the masterstroke. Who would suspect that she'd had any reason to kill him? It was Newbie, in the entryway, with the knife!

- Kahlan wanted Drixx dead, because she knew the jig was up. She'd had him fooled earlier in the game, but he was starting to catch little slips like in 283, 333, and 359. He was smart and beginning to see under the mask! Obviously he had to go. It was Kahlan, in the bedroom, with the poison!

- Huntress wanted Drixx dead, because she was certain Drixx knew the score. She replaced in late to a scum position, but she was not under any real suspicion due to the awkward circumstances of her arrival. She decided Drixx would be be the first to come around to the truth, so she killed him before he could get to it. Besides, who would suspect her anyway? After all, she just got here... It was Huntress, in the sunroom, with the... oh bugger I'm out of weapons. Anyone?

-----

I might believe all of those theories or none. Either way, I had fun coming up with them!

[soulmonarch]

Try and remember that literally everything you ever say in regards to scum motivation is invariably WIFOM -- until you have a flip. No matter how good your theory is -- as long as living players are involved -- you can always immediately say: "BUT WHAT IF THAT'S WHAT THEY WANTED ME TO THINK!?"

It's usually not worth talking yourself in circles, just decide which one sounds good to you and go with for a little while.

[soulmonarch]

...huh.

I gotta say I don't know how that helps at all.

So now you've claimed that you are a townie and a PR. But we have no particular reason to believe you, right? (Other than your word, that is -- and none of us should be trying to convince people based on that. We are all suspect.) Given that you've got a couple people pointing fingers at you right now, it is entirely possible that it's just a gambit to get them to leave you alone. It would be entirely different if you were claiming an investigative role and a read.

Assuming you are telling the truth: You might avoid getting lynched, but you've just set yourself up to get NKed -- because it's a good bet that . What's more, town doesn't gain any useful information out of it either, since you didn't claim a cop investigation or anything. Or maybe town decides to lynch you -- because let's be honest: it

looks

scummy -- and you flip TPR, then it's Ness all over again.

I think the benefits to you if you are lying are fairly obvious, of course. >_>

Am I reading this all wrong? Anyone?

[soulmonarch]

*blink* Ohhhhhh, I see what you're saying. (Took me a second.)

I... think I might be willing to take a chance on that. I need to do some re-reading tonight to see how the picture changes with that in mind.

[soulmonarch]

Huh, sorry if "flavor" seems to make people suspicious. (Usted and Newbie have mentioned it at least.) I write posts in the same way I talk. If there was a way to type in hand motions efficiently, I would probably do that too. ^_^

Anyway, on to the real point of this post:

------

Blarg, okay this claim is not as simple as it originally appeared.

Usted has claimed to be a Town Power Role and that his role "rests in the left two columns."

This hint seems entirely predicated on the idea that the game setup is drawn from a single column of the matrix. If that was true this would potentially be a very interesting play, as it would virtually guarantee that Usted was either the Mafia Roleblocker or the Bulletproof townie. A Bulletproof Townie could successfully claim and their counterpart would be guaranteed to know, plus he could safely not get NKed (or the Jailkeeper could stay anonymous and protect him.) Or -- much more insidious -- the if Mafia has a Roleblocker, they would be able to confidently make the same claim and have it ring partially true to the Town Power Roles, confusing them into thinking Usted might be an ally. Either way, an interesting maneuver. Though I admit, even if he is telling the truth, I am not seeing any particular advantage for town right now.

However, the the game setup is drawn from one column

or row

. Which throws any semblance of logic right out the window. We could assume that Usted had simply not accounted for that fact -- that he was counting on the above scenario. The primary difference here is that now the marginal benefit gained by town in the prior scenario is completely gone -- the other TPR simply cannot know that Usted is really telling the truth anymore. As a mafia tactic, it hasn't necessarily lost any effectiveness though.

The options as I see them at the moment:

1.) If Usted is telling the truth: He most likely hasn't gained an invisible ally in the other TPR, since they cannot confirm the claim. All the VTs are just confused. Of course, Mafia already knows he's town but now they are forced to decide what to do with him. If he's Bulletproof, they could waste an NK -- but what if he's actually a Jailkeeper? Can they take the risk? (Of course, if they have a Roleblocker it doesn't matter... ) Overall, town really isn't coming out ahead in the deal.

2.) If Usted is lying: Some people will back off completely due to the soft claim. Both Town Power Roles are confused, not sure if they can trust his claim since there is no conclusive evidence. (A town cop might try to investigate him to be sure, but a town doctor might also try to protect him just in case he was being honest and he was under threat of nightkill.) Overall, it would be a fairly slick scum gambit.

-----

In both cases, it feels like a reaction to get suspicion off of him. But now that I've run through the scenarios, it also feels like a damn slick scum move. My gut is warning me that maybe I am reading it too hard, and it was just a not very well thought out town move.

If someone else reads this differently, please educate me.

[soulmonarch]

Interesting.

So to be clear here: Your primary scumtell on me is that I have... analyzed your claim? And found it dubious? And rather than contradict my analysis by providing another perspective --

even when I specifically asked for input

-- your answer mostly amounts to "nuh-uh because I said so, stop asking questions"?

1.) How is mentioning the potential existence of a Roleblocker a slip? Why would mentioning any role be alignment indicative? Every person here knows a Roleblocker might exist, exactly as they know that a Town Tracker might exist.
2.) How have I 'skewed' your claim? You haven't explained any purpose of your claim to begin with -- as far as I can see, you did it only because Workdawg was pressuring you.
3.) Thank you for reassuring me that you were fully aware of the possible complexities of the situation before making your claim. But my final assessment of the situation was written specifically with those in mind and you did not even attempt to address in what ways I may have been wrong.

All I see is OMGUS here. But I'd be interested in real explanations if you had them.

[soulmonarch]

If I were JK there would be 50/50 shot that we had a one shot or a VT. if I was cop it would be 50/50 between VT and doctor. But I KNOW there is another PR.

So obviously yes I am one shot bpv townie. Anyone given my message could have interpreted this.

So now mafia knows more than we do.

I was trying to send a message to the other PR but you guys decided to go out and say it anyways.

...I'm still not sure how this has helped town at all aside from getting you out of trouble...

This is exactly the problem I've had with the claim:

As you acknowledge: Literally anyone -- assuming they did the logic pattern -- would have known from your information that you were claiming to be the Bulletproof Townie. The was literally no other choice, due to that VT slot. And yet you state that Mafia is now at an advantage because you've officially revealed what

they already knew

. Mafia knows nothing more now than they did before: They know your role and that the other (still anonymous) role is a coin flip. They can narrow it down to four people, but that's the best they can do. It doesn't even change the available range of actions they have.

I want to reassure you that your possible message to the other PR is not disrupted in any way and the Mafia have not gained any additional information. I do hope that the other PR can make something useful out of it, perhaps on D4 this will come back up and be useful.

-----

Final notes:

For what it's worth, there is still no way for me to verify Usted as town 100%. But while I had my doubts as to the usefulness of his original claim -- and still do -- my purpose was primarily in getting a reaction test from him.

As far as I am concerned, I'm going to count Usted town. Mafia has such a tiny chance of getting an NK on him that they won't try, so at least I can count on him being around another day or two. And there is the hidden factor of the anonymous TPR that might come in handy later on in the game. All things considered, this works out okay.

Sure, there is always a chance I'm wrong. And if he makes it to the end and flips scum, I'll feel real silly. But given the information, I'll take that chance.

[soulmonarch]

That's not true. Mafia now knows the exact setup and can narrow down the other PR (thus higher chance of hitting the other PR).

Noted earlier: Everyone here (should have) already known that Usted was claiming to be Bulletproof. There was literally no other option. Therefore, actually stating it out loud changes nothing. Mafia knows

exactly

what they already knew before.

You are correct though -- they do know the setup for certain, based on whether they have a Roleblocker or not. (This was an oversight on my end. Thanks point it out.) But again, this is not new information for them. And it doesn't change any of their available options for a night action either. If they only have Goons, they won't waste the NK, knowing he's guaranteed to survive. Even if they have a Roleblocker, they can't block him and NK him, because Jailkeeper will protect him as well. No matter which way you swing it the stick, Usted lives. (Alternatively, scum could try to blow an NK tonight in hopes of getting him tomorrow, but even then we're coming out ahead.)

Mafia still have a 25% chance of picking off the other power role, but they already had that. And it would have been nice to trick scum into accidentally wasting a night kill on him, but that wasn't going to happen this time given what they already knew. However, a confirmed townie on D3 / D4 is a very powerful thing. And Usted has a ridiculously high chance of making it there now. Overall, this could totally work out -- especially if we manage to nix one of them today in the lynch.

Sure, there is always a chance I'm wrong. And if he makes it to the end and flips scum, I'll feel real silly. But given the information, I'll take that chance.

If he's scum, then he won't make it to the end because of counterclaim (there is no reason why BP shouldn't CC him at this point).

Touche! I completely spaced the idea of a counter claim. At present this is another big point in his favor, and makes me feel pretty secure about the read.

@ Soulmonarch:

Why did you try to promote discussion of Usted's claim rather than either saying nothing or just asking him to full claim?

This is what I was saying at the end of 459: I saw an opportunity for town gain, but I needed a reaction from him so I could read him well enough to decide if I was going to throw in with him completely. Obviously the reaction needed to be genuine, so I couldn't tell him exactly what I wanted from him. That said -- getting a full claim was not the goal. The entire reaction from his original gut OMGUS through to the transparency of the full claim was important, as I see it.

Honestly, I thought I'd tipped my hand in 433 and the play would fall flat. But no one mentioned the slip, so it worked out. Now I can discuss it freely of course, since I have zero need to maintain any kind of facade to preserve the reaction.

[soulmonarch]

VOTE: Soul - I don't really like the way he was theorycrafting around Usted's claim. Seemed like he was fishing to try and get more information. Usted's claim post did have all the information he wanted to give up, but Soul's pushing forced Usted to elaborate and reveal more information that didn't help town. I don't really see the point of that. Non-PR town really have no need to know the setup.

I stand by it.

I am aware that people tend to read "pushing" as scummy behavior. I don't take it personally. (Standard moralistic fallacy:

"This person seems like a jerk right now, therefore this person is most likely scum."

) I typically avoid making that type of play unless I think the potential outcome is worth it. In this case, I considered it worth the possibility of a mislynch or making myself a target for the NK. Figure it this way: I know that if I die I'll flip town. So the question becomes "does everyone else benefit from knowing that I was genuine?"

Also, I have elaborated a couple times about why Usted's 'reveal' did not give any additional information about the setup to anyone. Moreover, I also have elaborated on why transparency is beneficial to town in this case. The only people who benefit from obscuring information are the scum. I won't lie: It bothers me a touch that you reiterated a point that I have already put lots of time into, and did it as if I had not even tried.

When I initially made my claim about being a tpr I thought that EE's initial response was something that the other PR would have had. But then he buddies up with soul who was thinking that my claim wasn't great(which I can see that PoV) and he votes for me. So I think that EE is Mafia based on his reaction to my claim.

At first he ignored it, then when someone tried to discredit me he jumped all over it.

I've been on and off about EE all game, to be honest. I see where you're coming from here, though my overall impression so far is that he's just been somewhat erratic. So far most of my theories just come back as begging the question. (i.e. "EE is scum, which is why he did

X

" or "EE is town, which is why he did

Y

". It's fun mental exercise, but it isn't bringing me to any conclusions.) If we could flip him right now I don't really think I'd be surprised with either answer. ><

I have a healthy distrust of Huntress at the moment, primarily because her relative quietness would be an exceptionally effective scum tactic.

On a personal level, I have a fairly good feeling about Newbie. I don't always agree with her reads, but I do feel like a number of the questions / points she's brought up would have been much better left unsaid if she'd been scum.

And I think I need to spend more time considering Workdawg and Kahlan. It's not that I have been reading them town or scum, so much as the fact that I just haven't been reading them.

[soulmonarch]

@soul I'm wondering why you think everyone should have already known usted was claiming bulletproof? He stated before (before he actually claimed bulletproof) that his PR was in the left two columns so with that why would we have known? There could have been other choices.

Explained in previous posts, but I can do it again.

Taking his original claim at face value:

- In the left two columns, the options on the matrix are JK, BP, Cop or a VT.
- Obviously he can not occupy the VT slot.
- As Jailkeeper, the possible options for the other player are the BP or a VT. He would not be certain there was another power player in the game.
- As Cop, the other options are Doctor or a VT. Same problem as above.
- As Bulletproof townie, he can guarantee that there is another PR, he just does not know for certain which.

If he is telling the truth (i.e. town), Bulletproof is the only possible option.

One of my primary concerns with the claim is that anyone could have figured it out -- which doesn't necessarily guarantee everyone would have. If scum figured it out, they would want to stay quiet about it in hopes that not all of the townies would have done the same. Hell, if I'd been scum, I know my primary goal would have been to do everything in my power to keep it under wraps. Knowledge is power. The only solution to that problem was to spell it out as plainly as possible for everyone, evening the field somewhat. They still hold a knowledge advantage, but much less so than if a couple townies weren't totally up to speed on the ramifications of the claim.

[soulmonarch]

Anyone else feel that both scums could have been riding the ness train?

Workdawg's logic does make some sense: Since most everyone was leaning into the Ness lynch, scum would be pretty likely to just let it happen without their vote -- maybe they'd voice some non-committal support for it to seem like they were part of the mob mentality, but otherwise it would have been smartest to stay out of it. But by the same token, once it was obvious where it was going, scum could have been in on it without arousing much suspicion either. I believe everyone (see Workdawg's 402) had either already voted or declared their willingness to vote. With everyone either already "on" the wagon and the rest running alongside it just in case a seat opened up, the waters were pretty darn muddy.

In short, I think Workdawg is right in saying that it is

unlikely

that both were on the wagon. But unlikely implies that it might have still happened, so if you have theories I don't see why we shouldn't talk about them.

[soulmonarch]

Re 495: How did soul start the Ness wagon though? I and Workdawg are already voting for Ness by the time soul voted. By that, you can even say I started Ness wagon.
About EE, him hammering Ness is not scummy. Before he voted, others (Drixx, Usted and Huntress) had express the intent to hammer. It's only a matter of time before Ness is lynched.
What about Huntress feels like town? because I am not seeing it.

The thing that really sucks about the Ness wagon is that everyone was either already on the wagon or waiting to hammer.

Personally, I know that my original claim on him was a pretty weak theory, just fishing for reactions. And his first response to it (186) was to just give up altogether, which set the tone for the rest of the day. Yeah, a number of people had legit suspicions or questions for Ness -- but the thing that really seemed to do him in was that he just plain never defended himself. (Which is what I was whining about in 344.)

Anyway, my choices right now are Huntress or Workdawg.

Primarily by process of elimination. Obviously, I'm considering Usted as confirmed town. I tend to see EE and Kahlan as town at the moment. Newbie too -- but I'll caveat by saying that I won't be terribly surprised if we get to the end of the game and find out she was actually just a really good actor.

In terms of order: Huntress first, because her play right now would be very wise if she were scum and I don't have any particular reason at present to think she's town. Workdawg second, because I feel like I'm playing a hunch on him, rather than relying on specific evidence.

[soulmonarch]

OMFG, how did soul sneak a post in between my walls?

Yeah, sorry. Didn't mean to interrupt.

Huntress remains a frustrating slot of course. Never officially gone V/LA and has managed to post just enough to avoid a prod recently, but has posted so little that I just don't know. Unfortunately, the deadline is coming up soon and I'm afraid of going ANOTHER day without being to get a read on this slot.

Yeah. Don't like that this game has had so much of that, but there's not much to do for it.

[soulmonarch]

The issue with WIFOM is that it is unavoidable in any situation with enough unknown variables (i.e. your average game of Mafia.) Until someone has officially flipped, you can always say

"but what if that's what they want me think!?"

For that reason: Yes, it's the probably the scum's best tool. Though it isn't one they usually need to wield, as us paranoid townies can usually do it to ourselves plenty well without the extra help. >< But if you think someone is intentionally trying to guide you or someone else into WIFOM, I consider it a pretty valid suspicion.

-----

Anyway... we're like two days out from deadline. So I guess I'd better vote or get off the pot. I've been saying Huntress was top of my list most of the day and so far nothing has really come up to change that. I have my doubts, but I feel it's a better shot than a lot of the other choices at the moment.

So... VOTE: Huntress

According to last votecount, that puts her at

L-1

.

[soulmonarch]

@soul, what if she is our other TPR? We need to make sure we are picking the right person or we are going to probably lose the other TPR. I feel she is town but feelings can be wrong just like you have your doubts but what if she is town and turns out to be the other TPR? Would that end up hurting town more?

Obviously it would be bad for town to accidentally lynch the other TPR. Though, even on a completely blind guess, I wouldn't really say that it's 'probable'.

In the complete absence of information, there is a 33% chance that anyone lynched is scum. (That's 2 / 6, on the assumption that the person voting is town. Chance goes to 40% if you believe that Usted is town, as claimed.) If the person does flip town, it's a 33% chance they are the other TPR. (Under the assumption that only a VT would even be concerned with these odds, so: 5 town - Usted - VT = 3 possible choices.) That works out to about a 20% overall to pick the TPR on complete accident.

By contrast, even if you were informed scum trying to influence the vote, you only have a marginally better chance to get the TPR at 25%. The reason they hold so much advantage is the nightkill. Scum power is much more concentrated there than it is in trying to control a lynch.

Probabilities aside, I don't think "what if they are a power role?" is an applicable question without some evidence or a claim. As long as you're picking blind, there is always going to be the same element of risk associated. Sure, we try to narrow the chance down by picking people we suspect, but even that is subject to us just being plain wrong about our suspicions. (For instance, I am treating Usted as confirmed town right now, but there is still a possibility that he's just fooling me. We won't know for certainly until the end. He he flips scum, I'll feel silly, but it's always a gamble.)

[soulmonarch]

Soul and Kahlan's discussion about accidentally lynching the other PR... Soul's latest post looks a little bit like IoA. "Let me post all this statistical analysis", but when I read Kahlan's post I was thinking pretty much the same thing. So I guess that a not significant right now.

Hmmm, I see your point. And I do notice that anytime I post actual analysis a few people immediately call it scummy, so this is obviously something a number of people consider a tell. That said, all of that is actually the process my brain runs through in order to make any decision. (It's my debate team history showing. ><) I try to only share it when relevant to someone else's question, or I specifically want to try and prove a point that I believe in.

Personally, I'd prefer it if people posted hard analysis more often, at least then I'd be able to actively tell if they were lying or not.

[soulmonarch]

...I mean, is it just me that finds that whole "RVS" thing scummy? I know she's trying to talk her way out of it, but I think TheDom's actions there pretty much refute what Huntress is trying to say.

I don't think you are the only one. I know my vote for her is partially based on the belief that Dom may very well have been scum, and partially on her play since she replaced him.

[soulmonarch]

The problem I see is can we really base information off the Dom? Sure huntress is trying to make people see her side of it because people keep comparing her and her actions to the Dom when in reality she is s different person/player. I don't think what the Dom did should be held against her.

True. But this isn't about who Huntress is as a person -- it's about what her role card says. If Dom was scum, then Huntress inherited the position along with any mistakes he may have made before she showed up. So it's at least a valid line of questioning.

[soulmonarch]

HUNTRESS IS NOW AT L-1

@workdawg talk about hiding L-1s? you didn't even put it in your post. You need to let everyone know that huntress is at L-1 now.

I won't lie, I literally just shot coffee out of my nose when I saw this.

[soulmonarch]

I originally thought her posts at the very end of yesterday were weird -- but I guess now they make sense as a play to distance herself from the role. I didn't read it as a slip at the time though.

Maybe scum took her out because they suspected, but I think Newbie is correct: She was pretty town. It'll be way easier to get me or the other guy lynched. I suppose it's kind of irrelevant now though.

[soulmonarch]

Hey folks, been busy the last few days. Coming back later this evening to catch up!

[soulmonarch]

Out of respect for the above, I'll hold my opinions.

Besides, I could use the extra time anyway. I wasn't kidding when I said I've been busy. ><

[soulmonarch]

Huh. Not what I expected.

But I'll say this: At this point, scum win if they knock off one townie. So if Usted leaves the vote on Eagle and he

doesn't

get hammered... it pretty much confirms he's scum. It also directly implicates Workdawg as the second.

Not a gambit I'd have played, but it will certainly brings a speedy win for one side or the other.

[soulmonarch]

Whups, my thought process was completely wrong.

I was thinking like this: Newbie and I were on at a similar time last night and could have coordinated a hammer had we both been scum, thereby leaving Workdawg as the logical scum. But of course that makes

zero

sense -- because if Eagle is scum that only leaves one more out of the three of us. (And if he isn't scum, he'll get hammered by you guys soon and the question will be irrelevant. )

I blame lack of sleep. Sorry about the gaffe.

@Workdawg - Also: I won't argue with you about Usted's play. If I didn't have him as confirmed town I'd be voting him in an instant. But just can't think of any possible way that he could get away with lying about it, the real power role would have counter claimed.

[soulmonarch]

Ha ha ha, I won't lie -- I was kinda hoping I'd be the survivor today just because of how crazy the situation is. It's so rare that I actually ever know for certain what's going on as town. I am glad to at least know my read of Newbie was good! I was secretly worried I'd been horribly wrong about her.

@Usted - I'm not sure it mattered much whether he took out Newbie or me. You've had both of us higher than Workdawg on your 'scumdar' list for quite some time, so he can be reasonably sure that he's got at least a slight advantage regardless. If I or Newb had been the last scum, I think you can guarantee we'd have taken out Workdawg.

Can't make a long post now, but I'll be back once I get home from work.

Humorous anecdote though: Ha, you nailed it on your initial RVS! Regardless of whether town wins this one, I think that deserves bonus points.

[soulmonarch]

The number of games I or anyone else have played on this site are in no way indicative of how many Mafia-style games we have played. Personally, I have played extensively in the live setting. Playing here on this site is a bit of a fun departure for me.

Interestingly, this actually turns out to be a massive handicap. The live game plays a lot more like poker, with facial expressions and mannerisms being very important. Forum mafia completely takes that away. Additionally, I now realize how reliant I am on people not having the time to sit around for a few days carefully considering everything they type. The two games are quite different, in interesting ways.

(Side note: If you guys haven't heard of it, check out a great version of the game called 'Secret Hitler'. It's a touch more streamlined take on the game, but it's awesome if you can get a group on 8-10 friends together.)

-----

To the point at hand:

I don't believe WIFOM should be used as an indictment of anyone, nor as a defense. It simply

is.

It is so omnipresent within the game that it should not even bear mentioning. Until you can absolutely prove a player's alignment (i.e. nearly the entire game), literally everything they say is WIFOM. So to discredit any single point by calling it "WIFOM" seems rediculous.

Quite the opposite, regularly using the phrase as a weapon is a pretty clear attempt to distract from more solid facts, by getting them stuck in a mental loop. If that isn't scum tactics, what is?

And much more importantly, am I not correct? Usted has been relatively forthcoming about his reads to date. If Workdawg is scum, it is somewhat debateable which one of us was a better choice for nightkill. But if I am scum, killing Newbie would be outright stupidity.

-----

Knowing his alignment for certain now, I can appreciate how great Workdawg been as scum. Reading back through the first chunk of the game with full knowledge, I honestly see no slips. He did exactly what he was supposed to: Stayed active, pushed a wagon here and there, occasionally threw shade at Eagle without ever getting serious, etc.

The first time I really see any breakdown on Workdawg's part is during Usted's claim. It makes sense that I got some blame shifted to me for that, but pretty much everyone walked away calling Usted town. Workdawg wasnt about to keep voting for him, but he made it clear a few times that he'd still like to have been. (Looking back, I see Eagle tested those waters to see if anyone else would get the wagon going with him again.) The whole thing seemed decidedly out of character for Workdawg.



Anyway: No time to write more, I gotta get to bed!

I don't envy you your choice, Usted, I'll say that! But, for the record: I know I won't take it personally if you mislynch and I don't think Workdawg will either. "GG"s all around, yeah?

[soulmonarch]

Oh, balls, I forgot this:

VOTE: Workdawg

Now Usted holds ALL THE POWER!

[soulmonarch]

...
The first time I really see any breakdown on Workdawg's part is during Usted's claim. It makes sense that I got some blame shifted to me for that, but pretty much everyone walked away calling Usted town. Workdawg wasnt about to keep voting for him, but he made it clear a few times that he'd still like to have been. (Looking back, I see Eagle tested those waters to see if anyone else would get the wagon going with him again.) The whole thing seemed decidedly out of character for Workdawg.
...

And you said yourself, a few times, that you weren't sure you believed Usted's claim. Further, yesterday when I said I didn't like the way Usted was playing as town, you agreed with me...

Yup. But that's nothing new or interesting -- everyone had some kind of issue with Usted's claim. I chose to push him on it, because I saw an opportunity to either definitively confirm him as town or expose him as scum. Other people simply accepted it at face value, or maybe asked some clarifying questions. Eagle made an abortive attempt to start the wagon back up after my push post, but that was well within his established character. (Only person who jumped him for it all seemed to be Usted, actually.) As for you, it isn't so much that you persisted in calling his claim shady, it was that it seemed out of character for you.

And this is only in hindsight, but I realize that the way you attacked Huntress should have triggered alarms. But I missed the cues and let my vote stand on Huntress anyway.

I'm fine admitting I don't like everything about Usted's playstyle post-claim. But as I pointed out in the post you quoted: I would vote for him immediately...

if I wasn't 100% certain he was town.

He is in an unreproachable position within the game at the moment and doesn't need to concern himself with accidentally getting mislynched, so his behavior makes sense.

I find this pretty interesting.
Soul votes for Ness based on speculation of a scumteam with Eagle. Then proceeds to just sit on the wagon until the lynch occurs. After voting/unvoting by others, soul was the "first" vote on the wagon. newbie was first, soul second, but later newbie unvoted. Interestingly, Drixx pointed out that soul's vote on Ness felt opportunistic to him.
On the Huntress wagon, Soul doesn't get on at the start, in fact seems to be almost avoiding it eventually putting Huntress at L-1 a second time because "it's time to vote or get off the pot". soul ends up "second on the wagon"... Is this another opportunistic vote? It was right after Kahlan put a second vote on Eagle. Could have been trying to divert attention from that...

Simple enough to figure this one out (and I sort of suspect you had, long before I had even realized it about myself): I apparently have absolute tunnel vision on players I perceive as lurking, inactive, or 'out of mind'.

Ness didn't start off that way, but the moment he gave up on defending himself I stubbornly refused to unvote. I was obviously willing to give it up to go vote for The Dominator, but we waited long enough that he got replaced. Huntress ended up top of the list next, both because she was a little less vocal than everyone else and because she inherited some of the blame from Dominator. Let's just say I've learned some valuable things about myself this game. >_>

My voting wasn't opportunistic. Quite the opposite: It was shortsighted. Leaving my vote on a single person while three other people unvote and revote doesn't put me 'first on the wagon', it just makes me the lazy one who left his vote alone until I had a better place to put it. "Opportunism" would have been to try my hand on many wagons, in order to see which one might have been easiest to push along without getting too much heat for.

[soulmonarch]

Good game, all! I learned some thing about myself this game. ^_^

Also, accusing soul of being scummy for pushing Usted's claim when scum already knew the setup, was kind of ridiculous. There would have been no reason for scum to push it at all.

So yeah, I thought that should have made me pretty clear town. But looking around, I think I got more scum reads for it than anything else I did. So keeping the finger on me for it was smart move.

The fact that Soul got left up after Eagle had HARD defended him made no sense to me.

I don't think I ever understood why Eagle buddied me so much. If he's around, I'd love to hear from him.

...I probably would have been lynched Day 2 had I not claimed because my town play comes off as very scummy, and I pretty well knew that spending 2-4 nights on trying to kill me (I thought we might still have a JK when I claimed) Or having a confirmed town alive through end game would be very beneficial.

I don't necessarily know that you'd have been lynched D2. Taking

only

that into account, I would have said your claim was premature. But being Bulletproof changes things a bit, yeah? And obviously I agreed (quite strongly) that having confirmed town would be very useful. >_>